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🔮 Scoop: Rising in the '28 stakes

First-term Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) — who was a tough-on-crime state attorney general, and now is vice chair of the Joint Economic Committee — has grown close to Vice President Vance and is seen as a top prospect to become a potential 2028 running mate, Jim VandeHei reports in Axios C-Suite.

  • We hear the VP views Schmitt, 51, as trustworthy, intelligent, articulate and a deft political operator. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is obviously the Trump favorite for Vance's #2, but he doesn't seem eager for that role.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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🤠 Texas group spends over $100M in two weeks
 
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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks to the GOP's midterm convention in Dallas on Sept. 9. Photo: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

A new Texas PAC spent a staggering $131 million in just 17 days to boost struggling Republican Ken Paxton in his Senate battle, and tens of millions more could be on the way, Axios' Marc Caputo writes from new financial reports.

  • Texas PAC, created last month, is affiliated with the GOP Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC for Senate Republicans.

Why it matters: This is a race where money may not make the difference. In a "craptastic" environment for GOP candidates nationwide, Paxton's many scandals have left him particularly vulnerable.

🗳️ Zoom out: Paxton, the state attorney general, could well become the first Republican to lose a statewide race in Texas in more than three decades. In polls, he's tied or behind Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, a seminarian who has cast Paxton and Republicans as corrupt and beholden to billionaires.

  • As of Monday, Talarico was on track to be outspent nearly 5-to-1 by pro-Paxton groups in the campaign's final two months, The New York Times reports.

💰 Zoom in: Texas PAC filed an FEC report yesterday showing the group had just spent more than $61.4 million in two days on ads and other activities for Paxton and against Talarico.

  • That brought the PAC's total spending on Paxton's behalf to more than $131 million in 17 days — more than $7.7 million a day.

Democrats backing Talarico are unlikely to come close to GOP spending, but are stepping up their ad buys.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Republicans Panic as Darline Graham Falls Into Desperately Close Race

The late senator’s sister is facing headwinds in a red state.

Senator Darline Graham rode Donald Trump’s endorsement to become the GOP Senate nominee in South Carolina, but alarm bells are sounding over the race in what was once considered a solid red state.

A new poll of likely voters in South Carolina showed Graham with just a one-point lead over Democratic challenger Dr. Annie Andrews.

Her brother, Lindsey Graham, won by more than 10 points against Democratic Party challenger Jaime Harrison in 2020.

The Trafalgar Group poll was conducted last week and showed Trump’s handpicked candidate at 43.4 percent to the Democratic nominee’s 42.3 percent. 8.5 percent were undecided.

The tightening race came despite the poll’s much larger sample of Republican voters: 59.1 percent. Andrews led among voters under 50, as well as among women.

It is one of several polls in recent weeks showing a tighter-than-expected race.

An InsiderAdvantage poll this month also showed Andrews within the margin of error among likely voters, including eight percent of Republicans and 41 percent of Independents.

On Tuesday, Politico reported that Senate Majority Leader John Thune would be heading down to South Carolina as part of his campaign swing ahead of the midterms.

It comes as Republicans are facing an increasingly ugly political landscape as they look to hold onto the Senate majority, with Democrats competing in a series of states Trump won in 2024.

While Thune will be making multiple stops in what have long been considered traditional battleground states, a visit to the Palmetto State shows they’re keeping a close eye on it.

Majority Whip John Barrasso rushed down to South Carolina ahead of the runoff to help Graham’s campaign, and Trump even held a rally in the state to help get her across the finish line against Rep. Ralph Norman last month.

But the divisions in the GOP remain, with just over 30 days to go before the midterms.

Norman’s wife Elaine has noticeably been sharing anti-Graham content on Facebook even after she locked in the nomination.

While GOP critics have warned a splintered GOP vote could ultimately help Democrats, Norman has continued to share content critical of the South Carolina Republican Party and even a write-in effort for her husband.

As the race tightens, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates it as “Likely Republican,” but it shifted slightly in Democrats’ favor last week from “Solid Republican.” The analysis noted the conservative grassroots campaign to write in Norman.

The state largely remains overwhelmingly Republican, as the last Democrat elected to the Senate there was Fritz Hollings back in 1998.

But Graham and Andrews will face off in person for a debate in just over a week on October 11.

It’s a high-stakes event for both candidates. Andrews is trying to win over Republicans to build her coalition before Election Day. Meanwhile, Graham needs to avoid repeating her previous debate performance.

She faced bipartisan criticism for her appearance on the debate stage during the runoff, where she admitted a lack of knowledge on national security, calling it “not my thing.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-panic-as-darline-graham-falls-into-desperately-close-race/?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

How Jon Ossoff and Susan Collins are turning a mundane part of their jobs into a reelection pitch

After Hurricane Helene barreled through Georgia in the fall of 2024, Sen. Jon Ossoff was the first high-ranking official on the ground in Valdosta, where he took in the damage and promised locals he'd help them get the federal recovery assistance they needed. Read More.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

US House Dems’ campaign chief predicts they’ll gain majority control in midterms

WASHINGTON — Democrats expect they’ll gain a majority of seats in the U.S. House following November’s midterm elections, giving the party a platform to serve as a check on the president’s power. 

https://floridaphoenix.com/2026/10/05/repub/us-house-dems-campaign-chief-predicts-theyll-gain-majority-control-in-midterms/?

Republicans to spend $5 million in South Carolina Senate race as Trump plans trip there

The primary Senate Republican super PAC is sending reinforcements to deep red South Carolina as President Donald Trump prepares to travel there to boost Sen. Darline Graham. Read More.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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🚨 Senate shocker: Toss-up Kansas
 
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Chart: The New York Times

In a major Senate shift, Cook Political Report yesterday moved Kansas — yes, Kansas — from lean Republican to toss-up, citing "perhaps a perfect confluence of events."

  • Cook also moved New Hampshire from toss-up to lean Democrat, and North Carolina from lean Democrat to likely Democrat.

📊 The N.Y. Times/Siena poll (charted above) gives Democrats a lead among likely voters in the Senate races in Texas and Alaska, each of which usually votes Republican.

  • Democrats have an edge in Ohio, which has trended red for years.
  • Republicans have an edge in Iowa.
  • Kansas, which hasn't voted for a Democratic senator since 1932, is neck and neck.

More from the poll (gift link).

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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🗳️ Fight night: Dems pile on Trump

President Trump wants midterms, 25 days from now, to be about him. Democrats couldn't agree more: In a trio of fiery Senate debates last night, the Democrats all glued their GOP opponents to Trump, his war and tariffs.

🚗 In Michigan, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed repeatedly traded personal attacks, talked over each other and even continued arguing during a commercial break. (AP)

  • One of the most heated moments was during an exchange about Flock cameras: Rogers said they were useful for catching suspected terrorists, adding, "Why would that bother you? Well, if you have someone in your family that might be on the, on the watch list …"
  • "El-Sayed, who is of Egyptian descent and would become the country's first Muslim senator if elected — and who has faced racist and Islamophobic attacks on the campaign trail — seemed to suggest in his response that Mr. Rogers was accusing him of being tied to terrorism," The New York Times notes. "Go ahead and say it," El-Sayed said. "You've been tiptoeing around it the whole time."

🍑 In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) and Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) faced off in "an hour-long brawl dressed up as a debate," The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.

  • Ossoff accused Collins of having a "childlike devotion" to President Trump and ties to white nationalists and neo-Nazis, saying, "You've hired half the Third Reich."
  • Collins called Ossoff an out-of-touch "radical."

🦞 In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson tried to tie Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) to Trump, while Collins tried to distance herself, as they sparred over the Iran war, energy costs and abortion rights.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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📺 Election night "nerd show"

CBS News is launching a new election night streaming show that lets political junkies watch its decision desk analyze races and make calls in real time, Axios Media Trends author Sara Fischer writes.

  • Why it matters: "The Nerd Show" represents the network's first election-focused show built for a digital audience.

How it works: The special streaming show will begin at 5 p.m. ET, a few hours before CBS News' official election broadcast.

  • It'll be hosted by CBS News executive director of elections and surveys Anthony Salvanto alongside congressional correspondent Caitlin Huey-Burns. The big touchscreen map will be branded "The Hub."

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Posted

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted
🗳️ Cook's huge swing
 
Illustration of a big red alarm light with the Republican logo in the center
 

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

Cook Political Report unveiled a major shift in its midterm projections today, tilting 18 House seats toward Democrats.

The big picture: Per Cook, Democrats need to win just 20% of the current toss-up races to reach a majority, assuming the seats that favor them in the nonpartisan analysis go Democrats' way.

The shifts include:

  • Five seats — in Iowa, Pennsylvania and Washington — moving from toss-ups to leaning toward Democrats, including Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks' (R-Iowa) tough rematch race against Democrat ⁠Christina Bohannan.
  • Four races — in Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina and Virginia — from leaning toward Republicans to toss-ups.
  • Republicans' hold on other races in Kentucky, Maine, Pennsylvania, Arkansas and Indiana slipped, shifting them to Lean R or Likely R. Meanwhile, Democrats' hold on Nevada, New York and Nebraska races tightened.

The other side: "House races are won in the districts, one by one, with battle-tested candidates and messages that work," NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella said in a statement provided to Axios.

  • "Pundits in D.C. can keep guessing, but voters on the ground have a clear contrast between common sense and crazy," he said, adding that "in November, we're going to win."

— Avery Lotz

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Election betting is booming as the midterms near. Do states have the power to curb it?

On Friday morning, the prediction market platform Kalshi gave the Democratic candidate in Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race an 87% chance of winning. The volume of trading on the outcome exceeded $1.8 million.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2026/10/12/repub/election-betting-is-booming-as-the-midterms-near-do-states-have-the-power-to-curb-it/?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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A bitter turn on the campaign trail

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted
1 big thing: Anti-party, anti-politician candidates surge
 
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

In red states and blue, unconventional candidates are downplaying — or even disowning — party labels to tap into voters' disdain for Washington, Axios' Hans Nichols writes.

Why it matters: They might not all win, but the sheer number of political outsiders connecting with voters tells us something about the electorate: It's angry and willing to take risks.

  • The candidates — whether they come from the pulpit or the NFL sidelines — are making the same bet: Voters are tired of career politicians.

🗺️ Zoom in: Consider three unorthodox Democrats leading Senate contests in red states: a Presbyterian seminarian in Texas (state Rep. James Talarico), a megachurch pastor in Kansas (Adam Hamilton), and an Alaska Native in that state (former Rep. Mary Peltola, who once skipped a week of House votes to go fishing when Chinook salmon were running).

  • Traditionally blue Minnesota's Senate race features Michele Tafoya — a former NFL sideline reporter who's endorsed by President Trump but calls herself an independent Republican. She's mounting a serious challenge to Democrat Peggy Flanagan, the lieutenant governor.
  • In House races, Democrats are fielding a smokejumper in Montana (Sam Forstag), a 29-year-old barista in Colorado (Melat Kiros) and a Tejano singer in Texas (Bobby Pulido).

Four independent Senate candidates are courting Democratic voters without a (D) next to their names — and sometimes without a Democrat in the race.

  1. In Nebraska, Dan Osborn, a union steamfitter and former factory mechanic, is mounting a serious independent challenge to Sen. Pete Ricketts, a former two-term governor whose family owns the Chicago Cubs.
  2. In Montana, Seth Bodnar, a former Army Green Beret and University of Montana president, is running as an independent for an open Senate seat. Democrats tried to persuade their nominee to drop out, but she stayed in the race.
  3. In South Dakota, Brian Bengs, a one-time park ranger, is challenging Republican Sen. Mike Rounds as an independent. Four years ago, Bengs ran as a Democrat against Sen. John Thune.
  4. In Idaho, former Army tank commander and tech executive Todd Achilles is running as an independent against Republican Sen. Jim Risch. (Achilles previously served as a Democrat in the Idaho House.)

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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🕰️ Decades-long GOP win streaks at risk

Democrats are running surprisingly competitive races in traditionally Republican territory, and it's putting GOP winning streaks at risk that stretch as far back as the 1930s, Axios' Andrew Solender writes.

  1. Kansas (1932): Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) faces a surprisingly tough challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, who has significantly outraised the incumbent GOP senator. A Democrat hasn't won a U.S. Senate seat in Kansas since 1932.
  2. Texas (1988): James Talarico is giving Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton a real run for his money in the Senate race. Talarico generally leads in polls by low single digits. Cook rates it a toss-up. Democrats last won a Senate seat in the state with Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
  3. South Carolina (1998): Polls show Republican Sen. Darline Graham leading Democrat Annie Andrews by just a few points. The last South Carolina Democrat elected to the Senate was Fritz Hollings in 1998.

In gubernatorial elections, Democrats are looking to break losing streaks in Texas (1990), Florida (1994), Georgia (1998) and Alaska (1998).

  • Republicans seeking to break Democratic win streaks include Mike Rogers in Michigan's Senate race (1994) and Christine Drazan in the Oregon governor's race (1982).

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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🥊 Piling on Beshear
 
Photo illustration of Gov Gavin Newsom and Gov JB Pritzker looking skeptically at Gov Andy Beshear with a money texture in the background
 

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo / Axios. Photos: Charly Triballeau / AFP; Talia Sprague / Bloomberg; and Francis Chung / Politico / Bloomberg via Getty Images

 

💥 Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is in open war with prominent Latino lawmakers, and his potential 2028 rivals for president are taking advantage.

  • Beshear, as head of the Democratic Governors Association (DGA), has resisted pressure from Latino leaders to invest heavily in Gina Hinojosa's campaign for Texas governor, opting to focus on races in other states.
  • In response, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore have given money to Hinojosa's bid to unseat Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) — and earned praise from Latino lawmakers.

🤺 Why it matters: The back-and-forth amounts to one of the first fights of the 2028 Democratic primary, against the backdrop of the party's desperation to reverse the GOP's recent gains among Latino voters.

  • 💪 Latino leaders are trying to flex their political muscle, fueled in part by Democrats' new primary schedule, which has Nevada and New Mexico — and their large Latino populations — the second and fourth states to vote in the nominating contest.

Driving the news: In recent weeks Latino leaders have gone public in their pressure campaign to push Beshear to invest $10 million in Texas, as polls have shown Hinojosa ahead or within the polls' margin of error.

  • Beshear, mindful of how expensive it is to campaign statewide in Texas and the DGA's limited resources, resisted and instead focused the committee's resources on governor's races in critical states like Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Ohio.

💰 Pritzker, a potential 2028 rival to Beshear who already had donated $200,000 to Hinojosa's campaign, then publicly announced he was donating an additional $1 million to Hinojosa. That won the Illinois governor, a billionaire who has strategically spread some of his personal wealth across the party, some fans.

  • "When Latino leaders asked for the cavalry, JB Pritzker sent it, putting $1.2 million behind Gina Hinojosa because he knows the race is winnable," Cristóbal Alex, board chair of the Latino Victory Fund, told Axios.
  • Alex noted that Pritzker, who hosted a fundraiser for the Latino Victory Fund, has "put his resources and his time into Hispanic candidates and voters around the country."

Newsom, meanwhile, sent a fundraising email that brought in $75,000 for Hinojosa.

  • Moore privately told the DGA to reallocate $100,000 from his reelection campaign to Texas, two Democratic officials told Axios.
  • Beshear, who personally donated $25,000 to Hinojosa's campaign, ultimately announced the DGA would give her team $1 million — 10% of the original ask and a small commitment for a big state like Texas. The money arrived this past week, according to a source familiar with the situation.

😡 The intrigue: Several Latino leaders and lawmakers were furious that Beshear didn't attend a Zoom call with them and the DGA on Oct. 7 to discuss the Texas race.

  • "It just baffles me that someone who was even thinking of 2028 would disrespect us and not meet," Rep. Silvia Garcia (D-Texas) told Axios, noting that seven Latino members of Congress were on the call. "Just freaking five minutes on a Zoom … and excuse yourself."
  • "I really felt like he disrespected the group, and that he is going to have a serious Latino problem if he doesn't know how to do the outreach and the communication that's going to need to get us to the White House."
  • Beshear's critics note he had time this fall for a book tour when, they argue, he could have been raising more money for the DGA.

🤔 The other side: Several Democrats told Axios that they believe the DGA made the right strategic decision to send money to other states.

  • Some of the Latino leaders pressuring Beshear also were consultants who stood to make money if he invested heavily in Texas.
  • Many Latino leaders claim they speak for Latino voters, but have been proved wrong in recent elections, as Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and others have pointed out.
  • Nevada, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona are swing states likely to be more critical than Texas for a Democrat to get 270 Electoral College votes in 2028.

What they're saying: DGA communications director Sam Newton told Axios: "Unfortunately for the D.C. staffers who are personally obsessed with 2028 and manufacturing Democratic infighting, the DGA and our chair Gov. Beshear, along with all of our Democratic governors, remain solely focused on beating Trump and Republicans to win as many of our high-stakes 36 races for governor as possible."

The bottom line: Even some Democrats who think the DGA made the right financial decision not to invest heavily in Texas think Beshear mishandled the politics of the situation.

  • If he can't handle the politics of being DGA chair, they argue, how could he handle a presidential campaign, and potentially the White House?

Read more.

— Alex Thompson

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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AI attack-ad nightmare realized

AI is enabling reality-bending midterm ads about defaced Bibles, upscale dinners and a board game with a "Death to America" playing card.

  • Why it matters: Warnings about deepfakes are coming true. Election laws haven't kept pace with a world where campaigns can put words in opponents' mouths and create realistic-looking scenes that didn't happen, Axios' Andrew Solender writes.

🤖 The Wesleyan Media Project found $137 million had been spent on 220 AI-generated ads through Oct. 11, mostly from Republicans.

  • Four states have laws prohibiting certain uses of AI-generated deepfakes in political ads, while 27 more require some form of disclosure about their use.
  • No federal law specifically regulates AI-generated political ads.

🤖 Axios found numerous political ads partly or fully made by generative AI, sometimes undisclosed:

🍑 Georgia Senate: Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Republicans, has run a series of AI-generated deepfake ads depicting Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff getting beauty treatments.

  • The ads mock Ossoff's reported campaign spending on hair and makeup, saying he "talks pretty" but has "an ugly record" and "a lot to cover up."
  • Ossoff said in a C-SPAN interview: "It is deeply troubling to see ... deepfake videos used to fabricate political advertising. And it's a slippery slope toward the destruction of truth in political debate, and the ad should come down immediately."
  • The ads don't disclose AI use, which Georgia law doesn't require.

🧤 Michigan Senate: A super PAC called Front Line Action used AI in an ad depicting Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed in a fabricated family photo with podcaster Hasan Piker and four women wearing niqabs.

  • Another AI-generated scene has El-Sayed playing a Risk-style board game with his half-sister, Eman Abdelhadi, and Piker. It depicts cards bearing statements that include "Death to America," "Do not Celebrate Thanksgiving" and "Celebrate 9/11."
  • The ad features both a written and spoken disclosure that it was "created in whole or in part with the use of artificial intelligence."

🤠 Texas Senate: Democratic candidate James Talarico has been a consistent target of AI-generated ads from both Republican Ken Paxton's campaign and outside super PACs.

  • A Paxton campaign ad (with an AI disclosure) depicts Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, defacing a Bible with crayon.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2

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