2025/26/27/28 Primaries

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Tuesday’s takeaways: Platner’s big night, Clyburn carries on and Trump’s support gets mixed results Graham Platner secured Maine’s Democratic Senate nomination, setting up a high-stakes battle against longtime incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins in a race that could determine party control of the U.S. Senate. Nevada, South Carolina and North Dakota also hosted primary elections. Read more. Why this matters: Whilst Platner never faced serious opposition for the Democratic nomination, Tuesday marked an especially significant moment for Platner, who is fighting to rebuild his credibility following a campaign rocked by personal controversies.   His victory — and his party's response — underscores how much the Democratic Party has changed in the Trump era. Democrats who once embraced a near-zero-tolerance approach to serious allegations of personal misconduct are increasingly prioritizing electability in their quest to return to power in Washington.    In South Carolina, Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette was unable to secure a majority of the vote in the five-candidate field needed to avoid a runoff. She will face State Attorney General Alan Wilson on June 23. RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Full election results   WATCH: Platner’s victory speech   Photos of primary elections across 4 states   Evette and Wilson advance to runoff for South Carolina governor   Nevada is set to have one of nation’s premier races for governor as Democrats seek to reclaim seat    Defying Trump ended some Republicans’ careers. It could help Susan Collins win reelection in Maine    Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton will face off in California governor’s race

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‼️ Next bitter primary

The political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus is quietly putting massive sums into helping the group's chair, Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.), win his primary.

Why it matters: The spending signals how much peril Espaillat's allies think he is facing from democratic socialist challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier.

• The race in New York's 13th District, which covers parts of Upper Manhattan and the West Bronx, has attracted huge independent expenditures from outside groups and national media attention.
• Avila Chevalier has leaned heavily into her endorsement from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

The big picture: This is one of several races pitting Mamdani against the NYC establishment, most notably House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is supporting Espaillat.

• Mamdani has endorsed NYC Comptroller Brad Lander in his primary challenge against Jeffries-backed Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.)
• He is also backing State Assembly member Claire Valdez in the race to succeed Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D-N.Y.), who is supporting Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso. Jeffries has not endorsed in that race.

Driving the news: Rep. Linda Sánchez (D-Calif.), who chairs the CHC's BOLD PAC, told us in a brief Capitol Hill interview yesterday that the group is "heavily invested" in helping Espaillat secure reelection.

• Sanchez confirmed in a follow-up interview that her group is routing most of its spending through another PAC, BOLD America.
• That group was launched in 2023 by New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham and former Reps. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Calif.) and Filemon Vela (D-Texas) to help elect Hispanic Democrats to Congress.
• A newly released Data for Progress poll commissioned by Justice Democrats, a group supporting Avila Chevalier, has her leading Espaillat 39% to 35%, according to Semafor.

By the numbers: BOLD America is, by far, the largest spender in the primary, having invested more than $2.5 million in the race, according to its FEC filings.

• Avila Chevalier's biggest outside backer, pro-Palestinian super PAC American Priorities, has reported spending $500,000 on the race so far.
• Asked about BOLD America's spending on his behalf at the Axios AM Live Summit on Tuesday, Espaillat pointed to Texas businessman Hussein Mahrouq's financial support for American Priorities.
• "We've got to have campaign finance reform ... because as long as we have Citizens United, you'll have an unlimited amount of money coming in from a bunch of places," the Hispanic Caucus chair added.

What's next: Early voting in New York begins Saturday, with primary day set for June 23.

— Andrew Solender

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🛑 House Republicans hit a ceiling

Data: Axios research; Chart: Kathleen Hunter/Axios The next viability test for House Republicans seeking statewide office comes Tuesday with Senate contests in Georgia and Oklahoma. In Georgia, Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), who finished first in the May 19 Senate GOP primary, is facing former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley in the runoff. The winner will challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in November. In Oklahoma, Rep. Kevin Hern is favored to win the GOP nomination to replace Markwayne Mullin, who President Trump named as DHS secretary in March. That race could go to an Aug. 25 runoff if no candidate wins a majority on Tuesday. Why it matters: At least seven House Republicans who opted against seeking reelection to pursue statewide office this year have fallen short in their primaries. That should flash warning bells for incumbents across the board. Serving in the House has historically been viewed as a solid stepping stone to higher office. The House has broken the record this year for the most retirements in the 2000s (you'd have to go back to 1992 to find more). — Kathleen Hunter

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Cruz readies '28 run

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is declaring independence from President Trump ahead of a possible 2028 presidential run, backing rivals to Trump-endorsed candidates in two high-profile GOP primaries, Axios' Alex Isenstadt reports.

Cruz announced he's backing Rick Jackson for Georgia governor and Alan Wilson for South Carolina governor.

• Jackson, a wealthy health care executive, faces Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in Georgia's June 16 runoff.
• Wilson, South Carolina's attorney general, is up against Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette in a June 23 runoff.
• Cruz appears to be the only potential 2028 GOP contender to publicly break with Trump in either race, underscoring how reluctant other ambitious Republicans are to cross the president.

🔎 Behind the scenes: Cruz is laying groundwork for a '28 run. He's delivering high-profile speeches, and hosting a podcast and syndicated radio show, giving him entrée to small donors.

• Cruz privately told donors last year that Trump's tariffs would damage the economy and potentially cost Republicans control of Congress, Axios reported in January.

In talks with donors, Cruz has trashed Vice President Vance.

• Keep reading.

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😈 Republicans take revenge

Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios

House Democrats are seething over what is, by all indications, a nationwide Republican effort to elevate Democratic primary candidates viewed as more beatable in November. Why it matters: This once-rare practice is becoming commonplace. Democrats did it in 2022 and 2024, and one House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told us it "seems like the new normal." House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has publicly blasted Republicans on the subject, writing in a post on X last week: "Stay the Hell out of our races with your malignant and desperate scheming." Driving the news: A trio of obscure super PACs with progressive-sounding names have cropped up in recent months to support more left-leaning or scandal-tarnished candidates in key battleground districts. Lead Left PAC played in Nebraska's 2nd District, Pennsylvania's 7th and — most infamously — Texas' 35th, where it reported spending over $1 million to boost Maureen Galindo, a sex therapist whose comments widely seen as antisemitic became a major flashpoint before she lost in a primary runoff. Real Change PAC spent big to oppose the more moderate Democratic primary candidates in New Jersey's 7th, Maine's 2nd and California's 22nd. Progressive Champions PAC is spending at least $1.5 million against centrist Cait Conley in New York's 17th district. Between the lines: Republicans have played coy about their alleged role in these efforts, but there are clues pointing to their involvement. Lead Left PAC's website — which says the group "stands against MAGA extremists" and — included a link to the GOP fundraising site WinRed in its metadata, according to Punchbowl News. When one signs up for Real Change PAC's email list, the group responds with an email from GOP consulting firm Cavalry LLC, as Axios first reported. Progressive Champions PAC and Real Change PAC list the same bank of record on their FEC filings, with both reportedly using the same, Republican-affiliated compliance filing software. What we're hearing: One former House Republican with knowledge of the effort, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive details, told us this is simply the GOP fighting fire with fire. "After Dems ran these fake PACs two years ago, Republicans have entered the fray with the same strategy," the former lawmaker told Axios. New York's 17th District, they added, is "one of the districts [where] it's being employed." Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) told us that GOP spending in Democratic primaries is "awful" but was "inevitable" after Democrats adopted the tactic in the Biden years. Yes, but: A former House Democrat involved in the 2022 and 2024 elections noted there were "no fake shell Dem PACs from those years." In 2022, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and House Majority PAC meddled directly in GOP primaries. In 2024, a group called Duty and Country — which had public ties to Democrats' Senate Majority PAC — supported now-Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) in his GOP primary. What they're saying: Democrats "aren't happy" that Republicans are "trying to help the far left," a senior House Democrat told us. "This type of spending is as prevalent as it is awful — by Dems and Republicans," Rep. Johnny Olszewski (D-Md.) told us. The bottom line: This is all made possible in part by campaign finance laws allowing these groups to keep their funding sources hidden until after primary day. "If only Congress had the ability to do something about these super PACs," Olszewski told us sarcastically, adding, "Oh wait." — Andrew Solender

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Campaign ad fakery

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

Campaign ads featuring AI-generated clips and images are now everywhere, with attack ads that place candidates in a wide variety of compromising and fictitious situations, Axios' Andrew Solender writes. Why it matters: This largely unregulated practice is blurring the line between truth and fiction. The latest spot to push the envelope is an attack ad against Texas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico from a Trump-aligned group called Citizens for Sanity. The ad depicts Talarico in a dress singing an abridged version of "Favorite Things" about transgender children. 🔎 Zoom in: Last month's GOP primary in Kentucky's 4th district, which Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) lost after being savaged by President Trump, saw widespread AI use by both sides. That included a "throuple" ad containing deepfakes of dining, checking into a hotel and holding hands with Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Pro-Massie spots used AI to depict an elephant with Trump-like hair and a MAGA cap, and Ed Gallrein, Massie's challenger, abandoning Trump in a foxhole. AI-generated image. Screenshot: AdImpact 🍑 In Georgia, gubernatorial candidate Brad Raffensperger used AI in multiple ads to depict his GOP primary opponents wildly shooting guns in the air and fighting each other with pugil sticks. A new ad from another Georgia gubernatorial candidate, Burt Jones, is entirely AI-generated and portrays his GOP primary runoff opponent, Rick Jackson, shoveling money into a furnace. Democrats are also using AI: In Texas, Crockett used AI to inflate the crowd size in one of her ads and posted an AI video to social media of herself, Trump and others as babies. In New York City, Andrew Cuomo used AI in the mayoral election in an ad that portrayed him performing various jobs, including subway conductor, stockbroker, stagehand, and window washer. 🔮 What's next: Some campaigns voluntarily disclose this AI use, but it's not required. Democrats want to change that if they retake control of Congress in November.

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Primaries

Voters head to the polls today in primaries across Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma and Washington, DC. Much of the attention is on Georgia, where Republicans are set to pick nominees in a high-stakes contest to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in one of November's most closely watched races. Read more.

MORE: New CNN poll shows nearly half of Americans don't consider themselves Democrats or Republicans

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🗳️ Big upset in Georgia

In the GOP runoff for Georgia governor, billionaire health care executive Rick Jackson spent $100 million, mostly out of his pocket, and beat Trump-endorsed Burt Jones yesterday, 53% to 47%.

• It's "one of the biggest political upsets in recent Georgia history," writes Greg Bluestein of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
• Jackson will face Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms in the Nov. 3 general election. More from Axios Atlanta.

In Georgia's GOP primary runoff for U.S. Senate, Trump-endorsed U.S. Rep. Mike Collins beat Derek Dooley, 55% to 45%, and will face Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in November. More from Axios Atlanta.

🥊 The bottom line: A split result for Trump.

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The cost to overcome a Trump endorsement? $100 million In the Republican runoff for Georgia governor, Rick Jackson’s campaign spent more than $100 million, largely out of the billionaire’s own pocket, to defeat the candidate the president endorsed, Burt Jones. Read more.

Why this matters: Jackson’s win was another rare example of the president’s choice falling short in a primary battle. Trump’s efforts were more successful elsewhere. His candidate for U.S. Senate won a runoff in Alabama, and his pick for Oklahoma governor advanced to another runoff there.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Full election results from Alabama, California, the District of Columbia, Georgia and Oklahoma   Georgia Republicans choose Collins for Senate and Jackson for governor, a mixed result for Trump   Trump-backed Moore wins GOP runoff for US Senate in Alabama, as Democrats focus on rising costs   Democrat Aisha Wahab advances in California special election to replace former US Rep. Eric Swalwell

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Georgia election

President Trump scored a key victory in Georgia on Tuesday when his endorsed candidate, Rep. Mike Collins, defeated former football coach Derek Dooley in the GOP Senate primary runoff. Collins will now face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, who's generating 2028 presidential buzz. Read more.

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Janeese Lewis George wins the Democratic primary for mayor of Washington, DC

WASHINGTON (AP) — Janeese Lewis George, who pledged to aggressively stand up to federal intervention into Washington, D.C.'s affairs, won Tuesday’s Democratic primary for mayor, setting up a potential showdown with the Trump administration over its moves to challenge the city’s limited autonomy.

https://apnews.com/article/janeese-lewis-george-washington-dc-mayor-primaries-a792a2b725d641ca511c81d8faf6ebc8?

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🎯 New 2026 long shots

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Republicans have stranded nine House Democratic incumbents in districts President Trump carried by double digits in 2024, thanks to the redrawn House map. Why it matters: This is the individual lawmaker version of how redistricting has become a powerful firewall for Republicans. It gives the party a way to threaten Democratic seats even if the national environment turns ugly for the GOP. The big picture: Under the new maps, Democrats are defending 23 House seats that Trump won in 2024, according to an NRCC analysis we viewed. Republicans are defending just eight seats that former Vice President Kamala Harris carried last cycle. These races will determine which party controls the House and test whether incumbents' personal brands can overcome the new electoral realities created by redistricting. Zoom in: Cleo Fields (D-La.) is running in a Trump +31.8 district. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) is in a Trump +18.4 district. Darren Soto (D-Fla.) is in a Trump +17.8 district. Shomari Figures (D-Ala.) is in a Trump +14.3 district. Don Davis (D-N.C.) is in a Trump +11.4 district. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) is in a Trump +10.6 district. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) is in a Trump +10.4 district. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) is in a Trump +10.4 district. Vicente Gonzalez Jr. (D-Texas) is in a Trump +10.1 district. Between the lines: Democrats have overperformed in special elections by 13% so far this cycle, according to The Downballot. They'll only need to flip three seats to win back the majority next year, compared to the 47 they had to flip in 2018. What they're saying: "Democrats' path to the majority runs straight through districts that already rejected them," NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella told us in a statement. "The battlefield has shifted, and they're on the wrong side of it." DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton told us in a statement: "Democrats are poised to retake the House majority, and Republicans know it. It's why they've resorted to trying to rig the midterms through illegal gerrymanders and voter suppression, but it won't work." — Kate Santaliz

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🛑 House Dems hit a ceiling

Data: Axios research; Chart: Kathleen Hunter/Axios August's Senate primaries in Michigan and Minnesota will give House Democrats a shot at breaking their 0 for 3 record this year of advancing in statewide races. Why it matters: Winning a promotion out of the House has been hard for lawmakers from both parties this year. House Republicans are 3 for 10 in statewide primaries this year after wins in Georgia, Oklahoma and Alabama. They'd previously lost seven times in a row. Zoom in: In March, Democratic Reps. Robin Kelly and Raja Krishnamoorthi lost to Lt. Gov Juliana Stratton in the Illinois Senate primary, while Rep. Jasmine Crockett lost to James Talarico, a state lawmaker from Austin, in the Texas Senate primary. Next up: Rep. Haley Stevens, a moderate, is competing against a Sen. Bernie Sanders-backed candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, and Mallory McMorrow, a liberal state senator, in Michigan's Aug. 4 Senate primary. A week later, Rep. Angie Craig will face off against Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota's Senate primary. — Kathleen Hunter

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Democratic socialists surge in mayoral races across the US as anti-Trump fervor rises After winning the D.C. mayor primary election Tuesday on an unapologetically expansive, left-wing agenda, Janeese Lewis George’s victory puts her in the vanguard of democratic socialists who have ascended in urban politics over the last year. This includes New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Nithya Raman, who clinched a spot in the LA mayoral runoff. Read more.

Why this matters: “They are all channeling a displeasure with a status quo and a serious desire for economic populism that the establishment Democratic Party hasn’t been preaching,” said Eric Stern, a Democratic strategist with Fight Agency, a political consulting firm that strategized Mamdani’s mayoral campaign.   The trend of progressives surging in urban areas may have limits for its broader impact on Democratic politics. Some cities still favor relatively moderate candidates and there's little sign of national coordination among the candidates. It’s also unclear whether voters are gravitating toward promises of improved government services, vows to fight the Trump administration or critiques of capitalism.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Pingree and Charles will compete for Maine governor and Dunlap gets Democratic nod for US House    NJ Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. sets June 30 return date after monthslong absence   🫏 House Democratic leadership suffered another setback when state Sen. Joe Baldacci lost his primary to a progressive rival in Maine's 2nd district. It's the second time this month a candidate backed by the House Dems' campaign arm has fallen short in their primary, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

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Primaries

New York's primaries today will offer an early test of Mayor Zohran Mamdani's political influence six months into his tenure, and a glimpse of the ideological battles shaping the Democratic Party ahead of 2028. Beyond several closely watched contests in New York, voters will also head to the polls for primaries in Maryland and Utah, and runoffs in South Carolina. Here's what to watch.

WATCH: Crowded NY-12 race includes former president JFK's grandson

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What to watch in Tuesday’s Maryland, New York, South Carolina and Utah primaries

We’re doing something a bit different today. Joining me is national politics reporter, Meg Kinnard, who’s been reporting for the AP for over 20 years. Meg is in South Carolina covering the GOP governor runoff tonight, but first, she’s here with us this morning to answer a few questions about today’s elections.   What do you think today’s races will tell us about where things are heading in the November midterms? We will see a bit of how much sway President Donald Trump still has; he’s played a large role in South Carolina’s primary, and while he’s made picks in the other states, his influence there may be a bit muted given how deeply red this state is. I’ve talked to voters who like being in line with Trump’s picks — as well as plenty who say his endorsement doesn't matter to them.   What’s the race you find most interesting?  I’m watching to see how much influence New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has in the contests where he's aggressively endorsed candidates challenging Democrats supported by party leadership. Mamdani made a big splash when he won, but if his chosen picks have success — like Darializa Avila Chevalier, the 32-year-old he’s supporting against Congressional Hispanic Caucus Chair Adriano Espaillat — that can strengthen his status as a democratic socialist kingmaker. It can also risk deepening fractures in his own party. If you want more from Meg, she also writes our political newsletter Ground Game. Subscribe here.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Mamdani tests his political clout in New York’s primary as he looks to reshape the Democratic Party   What to watch in Tuesday’s primaries   South Carolina voters will choose between two Trump-backed governor candidates in Republican runoff   Redrawn US House map in Utah sets up heated Democratic primary in Salt Lake-area district   Judge blocks use of federal database to check citizenship, saying it could wrongly purge voters Blueprint for success From New York to Seattle to Washington, DC, more cities are picking democratic socialist leaders. They’re running on pocketbook issues that resonate with voters, such as affordable housing and childcare.

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🗽 Socialist earthquake in NYC

Mamdani as kingmaker: House Democrats were stunned last night when two of their colleagues — including the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus — lost primaries to left-wing challengers backed by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Axios' Andrew Solender writes.

Why it matters: The New York primary results are expected to double the Democratic Socialists of America bloc in Congress.

• Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) told us: "People who do not support the DSA wring their hands at cocktail parties, while the DSA is organizing."

🔎 Zoom in: Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) lost reelection in a 66% to 34% landslide to progressive former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander.

• Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.), the Hispanic Caucus chair, lost his primary more narrowly to democratic socialist Darializa Avila Chevalier.
• In the race to succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D-N.Y.), democratic socialist state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez scored a double-digit victory over the Brooklyn borough president.

Between the lines: Mamdani backed all three winners: Lander, Avila Chevalier and Valdez. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) endorsed Espaillat and Goldman.

• Keep reading.

👉 The AI race: New York state Assemblyman Micah Lasher won a crowded Democratic primary for the Manhattan congressional seat left open by retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler, beating Alex Bores, a state assemblyman and former Palantir employee.

• Bores helped pass the nation's first major AI-safety law and ran on reining in the industry. The race drew more than $20 million in spending from AI interests.

By the numbers: Lasher got 39% and Bores got 35%. Jack Schlossberg, a political novice and grandson of President John F. Kennedy, finished with only 11% of the vote (11,000 votes out of 102,000). Go deeper.

🗳️ More takeaways ... AP results from New York ... Maryland ... South Carolina ... Utah.

 

Elections takeaways

Americans across four states cast their votes Tuesday in primaries and runoffs ahead of the November midterm elections. In New York, all three candidates endorsed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani won their House primaries, including two who defeated incumbents. The wins are being viewed as a sign of Mamdani's growing political influence and his emergence as a key power broker within the Democratic Party. Read more.

WATCH: Candidate finds out he won his race while live on CNN

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Takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani waded into Democratic House primaries to boost three progressives over establishment-backed candidates. Read more.

What to know: All three of Mamdani’s candidates won Tuesday, defeating two incumbents and essentially ensuring that two self-described democratic socialists will be elected to Congress in their deep blue districts. The mayor said it was a question of electing “better Democrats” who would “put working people back at the heart of politics.”

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Kennedy scion Jack Schlossberg loses in New York City congressional primary   The primary elections, in photos    Alan Wilson wins South Carolina Republican governor runoff after Trump hedges his bet on race   Ben McAdams defeats progressives in Utah Democratic primary as he seeks a return to US House   Federal judge dismisses Justice Department lawsuit seeking detailed voter data from Maryland    Georgia’s QR codes for counting votes will remain for midterms

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US Rep. Julia Letlow, endorsed by Trump, wins the GOP primary for Senate in Louisiana

BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) — U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow won the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Louisiana on Saturday, giving President Donald Trump a win after he backed her to replace GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy.

https://apnews.com/article/louisiana-senate-election-letlow-fleming-96d33228504ee6bde5c38b208fecfdc3?

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🗳️ Socialist momentum: 30-year incumbent ousted

Colorado's progressive left won Democratic primaries for Congress and the statehouse last night, Axios Denver's John Frank, Esteban L. Hernandez and Alayna Alvarez write.

1. A socialist toppled a House Democrat: Melat Kiros, 29, beat 15-term Rep. Diana DeGette in Denver's deep-blue 1st District, despite being badly outspent by an incumbent who first won the seat before Kiros was born.
2. A senator went down: Attorney General Phil Weiser upset Sen. Michael Bennet, a one-time 2020 presidential hopeful, by 10 points in the governor's primary. Bennet had deeper pockets and higher name ID. But Weiser pitched himself as the tougher fighter against President Trump.
3. The establishment couldn't stop the left: A progressive won the secretary of state nomination. Several statehouse incumbents lost their primaries to left-wing challengers.

Why it matters: Colorado shows New York's Zohran Mamdani-fueled victories for the left weren't a fluke. The antiestablishment surge is real, and Democratic incumbents have good reason to sweat their own primaries.

• Even the establishment's biggest win came with a warning. Sen. John Hickenlooper won renomination, but progressive Julie Gonzales beat him in Denver and still took almost 45% statewide.

Read on.

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Democrats begin pulling Graham Platner endorsements after sexual assault allegation A woman who previously dated Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner said he drunkenly forced her to have sex after she told him to stop, according to a Politico report released Monday. Read more.

What to know: Platner denied the allegation, but said he would be considering next steps for his campaign. “Regardless of the inaccuracy of the reporting but mindful of the political reality it will inflict, we’re taking the time to reflect on the best path forward,” he said in a video released on social media.    Platner won the Democratic nomination last month, setting himself up to face Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who has beaten back previous attempts to dislodge her from the seat that she’s held for nearly three decades. Although Platner has long been controversial, the sexual allegation sparked a flight away from the candidate, including prominent supporters, throwing a must-win race for Democrats into turmoil.

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Republicans' Maine offensive

Republicans are preparing to welcome a potential Graham Platner replacement in Maine's Senate race with $8 million in negative ads, aiming to introduce the new Democratic nominee to voters on their own terms before Democrats can.

Why it matters: Republicans are doing something Democrats wish they could: Move on from Platner.

• The progressive candidate, who said yesterday he is taking time to "reflect" on his next steps, remains officially in the race and is looking to leverage his status as the Democratic nominee to influence who could replace him.
• Republicans, meanwhile, see an opening: three weeks to prepare a campaign against a Democratic nominee who will have little time to introduce themselves to voters.

🚗 Driving the news: Pine Tree Results, the super PAC backing Republican Sen. Susan Collins, raised $10.5 million during the first half of the year — matching what it raised during the same period in 2025, according to a person familiar with the matter.

• The group pulled its anti-Platner ads today and has $8 million in cash on hand to define a likely fresh Democratic nominee for voters during a compressed campaign.
• Among the donors to the pro-Collins super PAC is Blackstone president Jon Gray, a longtime Democratic donor. He contributed $250,000 well before Politico and CNN reported sexual assault allegations against Platner.

📢 What we're hearing: Platner appears to be using whatever sway he might still have to try to choose his successor.

• "Graham still has to make the decision to leave the ballot. And folks are pretending that he has. And he has not," a person familiar with the campaign's internal discussions said this morning. "[It's] very clear that he cares about the movement more than the party."
• Another person close to Platner's adviser, Morris Katz, said Katz has discussed suspending the campaign with Platner and planned to meet him in Maine today to tell him it's not a question of whether he drops out, but when.
• The same person said Platner has told his team he built a movement and won a record-breaking number of votes, and he does not want his successor to be a "corporate" Democrat.

🤔 Between the lines: There have been conflicting accounts of the behind-the-scenes maneuvering.

• The New York Post reported today that a source said Katz is "still recommending Platner stay in the race." Katz responded on X that "no one in campaign deliberations or familiar with my thinking is talking to" the Post.

Zoom out: Platner's implosion in Maine is scrambling the spending calculus for both parties, with consequences that could stretch as far as Alaska.

• Senate Majority PAC, the Democratic super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, has publicly paused its spending in Maine to pressure Platner to exit the race.
• If Platner stays on the ballot, the $33 million the super PAC has reserved for Maine would likely be redirected to emerging Democratic pick-up opportunities, including Iowa, Ohio and Alaska.

💰 The intrigue: That shift could benefit Senate candidates such as former Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio and former Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska.

• Progressive energy is also likely to flow toward Abdul El-Sayed's Senate campaign in Michigan, where he is in a high-stakes showdown with Rep. Haley Stevens for the Democratic Senate nomination.

The bottom line: Platner's indecision is fueling anxiety throughout the Democratic Party and exposing a divide between progressives and the party establishment that leaders had hoped to bridge before November.

— Hans Nichols and Holly Otterbein

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Republicans juice "red wall" spending

Republicans are dramatically boosting campaign spending on Senate races in red states that, until recently, looked safely out of Democrats' reach in the November midterms, Axios' Alex Isenstadt writes.

• Why it matters: The GOP — alarmed by recent polls and voting trends — is juicing its efforts in Ohio and Iowa to reinforce a Senate "red wall" they believe can block Democrats' path to a majority in the chamber.

The clearest evidence yet: One Nation, the conservative nonprofit aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), is reserving $28 million in TV advertising in Ohio and $11 million in Iowa, according to plans obtained by Axios.

• Republican candidates are locked in tough races in those states less than two years after President Trump won both by double digits.

🔬 Zoom in: Republicans are especially worried about Ohio Sen. Jon Husted's unexpectedly competitive race against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who has outraised Husted by more than 2 to 1.

• Keep reading.

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❌ Anti-Jeffries caucus grows

Hakeem Jeffries' bid for the speakership faces an early test next month as several House candidates who have declined to commit to backing him compete in primaries in Michigan, Missouri and elsewhere.

Why it matters: They're not "Never Jeffries," but they aren't "Only Hakeem," either.

• Every Democrat elected from a safe seat who doesn't commit to backing Jeffries gives the minority leader one more potential holdout to win over before the new Congress convenes.
• 🗓️ Next up? The Aug. 4 primaries in Michigan and Missouri, where several House candidates who have withheld support for Jeffries will be on the ballot.
• Former Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), who is running for her old seat, declined to commit to backing Jeffries if she wins during an interview last week, despite voting for him on 19 speaker ballots in 2023.
• William Lawrence, a progressive candidate in Michigan's 7th District, said in an interview he looks forward to "voting for a Democratic speaker," but "will have to see how it all shakes out. I hope to have an alternative to Jeffries to vote for."

🔎 Zoom in: Several other candidates with August or September primaries told Axios last fall they either won't commit to Jeffries or are outright opposed to him: Donavan McKinney of Michigan, Luke Bronin of Connecticut, Heath Howard of New Hampshire and Patrick Roath of Massachusetts.

• Two California progressives facing runoffs with Democratic incumbents in November, Angela Gonzales-Torres and Mai Vang, are also in the Jeffries-skeptic column.
• Elijah Manley, running in Florida's 20th District, has changed his tune after previously opposing Jeffries. He told us last week the Democratic leader "will work with progressives to be the type of wartime leader that we need."

✅ Reality check: Jeffries' colleagues — left and center — widely expect him to become speaker if Democrats win the majority, noting that former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) faced similar rancor in 2018 and still secured the gavel.

• Jeffries himself is sounding confident: "I think I've stood as the Democratic nominee for speaker now a total of 20 times because of dysfunction on the other side of the aisle, and I haven't lost a single Democratic vote yet," he told reporters last week.

Yes, but: Even if he secures the gavel, Jeffries is all but certain to face constant headaches from his left flank.

• 😩 "People are tired of the weakness ... from Democratic party leadership who have lost to [Trump] not once but twice," Lawrence said.
• If Jeffries wins, "We have to have a pivot point on the question: What are the expectations you have of a Democratic speaker of the House, and how does that correlate to how you ran?" Pennsylvania state Rep. Chris Rabb, the Democratic nominee in a safely blue U.S. House seat in Philadelphia, told us.

— Andrew Solender