Voting, Rights, Rules,Challenges, Elections, Election Rules & Election Fraud_3

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Can $1 billion buy victory in the midterm elections? Some Republicans fear the answer is no Republicans have $1 billion at their disposal but worry it may not be enough to counter President Donald Trump’s unpopularity, persistent cost concerns and the fallout from the war in Iran. Read more.

What to know: The cash advantage, spread out across a half-dozen groups, is driven largely by the Trump-aligned MAGA Inc., which began stepping up its spending on critical races in September. But that money may have come too late, forcing the president’s group to pay much higher advertising rates because of the shrinking availability of airtime.   The 2026 campaign is shaping up as a referendum on the power of money in American politics. Democrats freely acknowledge their disadvantage, relying instead on anti-Trump sentiment among voters and targeted messaging on issues like corruption. Some Republicans, meanwhile, are open about the challenge of trying to spend their way out of a tough campaign at this late stage.   The challenge is acute in places like Texas, where Trump will travel on Wednesday for the second time in a week to stump for Republican Ken Paxton’s Senate campaign. The state hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1988, yet MAGA Inc. has spent more than $22 million in the past month, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

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💰 The $167 voter

Data: AdImpact. Chart: Stef W. Kight/Axios Every voting-age Mainer could get a $167 voucher for home heating oil with what Democrats and Republicans are spending on ads in the Senate race, according to an analysis of AdImpact data by Axios' Stef W. Kight and Hans Nichols. Why it matters: Every senator gets one vote, but Senate seats aren't created equal — and they don't cost the same. 🎣 Zoom in: Like two years ago, the less-populated states have a dramatically higher dollar-per-voter ratio in 2026. Maine is in first place, followed by Alaska, which is scheduled to be hit with $76 million in ads — enough to suck up most of the state's inventory. Ohio is in fifth place on the dollar-per-voter metric, but it's on track to host the most expensive Senate race in the country — for the second cycle in a row. Keep reading.

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💰 2026's most expensive voters

Source: AdImpact, Census.gov Note: AdImpact data includes dollars spent on video advertisements on broadcast, cable and social media as well as spending estimates on streaming platforms. Chart: Stef Kight/Axios Every voting-age Mainer could get a $167 voucher for home heating oil with what Democrats and Republicans are spending on ads in the Senate race, according to an analysis of AdImpact data. Why it matters: Every senator gets one vote, but Senate seats aren't created equal — and they don't cost the same. Blame the Constitution, or curse Citizens United, but when it comes to TV spending, not all voters get the same investment. Zoom in: Like two years ago, the less-populated states have a dramatically higher dollar-per-voter ratio in 2026. Maine is in first place, followed by Alaska, which is scheduled to be hit with $76 million in ads — enough to suck up most of the state's inventory. Between the lines: Ohio is in fifth place on the dollar-per-voter metric — tying with The Ohio State University in the latest AP football rankings, but we digress. Ohio is on track to host the country's most expensive Senate race for the second cycle in a row. Sherrod Brown's comeback bid is proving more expensive than his 2024 race, when he was ousted by now-Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio). And in New Hampshire, where Democratic Senate nominee Chris Pappas has been warning that his race is actually quite close, both parties are spending heavily to reach the state's voters. Data: AdImpact Note: AdImpact data includes dollars spent on video advertisements on broadcast, cable and social media as well as spending estimates on streaming platforms. Chart: Stef Kight/Axios The big picture: All year, Republicans warned that Texas would get really expensive if state Attorney General Ken Paxton won the primary. They were right. Outside GOP groups spent a mind-blowing $131 million in just 17 days trying to rescue Paxton. Tens of millions more could be on the way. But in North Carolina, where Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), predicted the race could cost $1 billion, the contest looks like it will come in under $200 million. Republican super PACs are abandoning the Senate race there as they reallocate money to redder states. The bottom line: Republicans have a spending advantage, especially when it comes to how many eyeballs they're actually reaching in Texas and Ohio. But neither side has figured out how to play moneyball and reach voters on a dramatically smaller budget. — Hans Nichols and Stef Kight

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California Voting Crackdown

Federal officials arrested more than two dozen people in California accused of voting illegally in US elections. The crackdown comes two weeks before the US midterm elections on Nov. 3. All of the people arrested are lawful permanent residents but not US citizens, the Justice Department says. They are on a list of more than 20,000 names the DOJ tagged as “likely” noncitizens to whom California mailed ballots this year. The DOJ last week sued the state to prevent election officials from counting those ballots until immigration status is confirmed; California says the DOJ did not provide any evidence to support the allegations.  Since 1996, 73 noncitizens have been convicted of voting illegally. The Census Bureau this year suggested upward of 24,000 voters in the 2020 election were noncitizens; see criticisms of that finding. ps:Of course not!! How many times did the trump people take this to court? 60+ I believe and lost each time!! Even SCOTUS rejected to look at this!!!!

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🗳️ Where early voting is surging

Data: UF Election Lab tracker. Map: David Adkins/Axios More than 12.6 million Americans have already cast ballots in the midterm elections, according to the University of Florida Election Lab's tracker. Georgia and Virginia lead reporting states in early turnout as a share of all ballots cast in the 2022 midterms, Axios' David Adkins and Herb Scribner write. Signs of strong early turnout are also emerging in other states. In Texas, Dallas County reported a record 76,079 in-person votes on Monday, the first day of early voting. In North Carolina, early voting was running 37% ahead of the same point in the 2022 midterms as of Oct. 18, with registered Democrats casting more than twice as many ballots as Republicans.