Voting, Rights, Rules,Challenges, Elections, Election Rules & Election Fraud_3

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Can $1 billion buy victory in the midterm elections? Some Republicans fear the answer is no Republicans have $1 billion at their disposal but worry it may not be enough to counter President Donald Trump’s unpopularity, persistent cost concerns and the fallout from the war in Iran. Read more.

What to know: The cash advantage, spread out across a half-dozen groups, is driven largely by the Trump-aligned MAGA Inc., which began stepping up its spending on critical races in September. But that money may have come too late, forcing the president’s group to pay much higher advertising rates because of the shrinking availability of airtime.   The 2026 campaign is shaping up as a referendum on the power of money in American politics. Democrats freely acknowledge their disadvantage, relying instead on anti-Trump sentiment among voters and targeted messaging on issues like corruption. Some Republicans, meanwhile, are open about the challenge of trying to spend their way out of a tough campaign at this late stage.   The challenge is acute in places like Texas, where Trump will travel on Wednesday for the second time in a week to stump for Republican Ken Paxton’s Senate campaign. The state hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1988, yet MAGA Inc. has spent more than $22 million in the past month, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

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💰 The $167 voter

Data: AdImpact. Chart: Stef W. Kight/Axios Every voting-age Mainer could get a $167 voucher for home heating oil with what Democrats and Republicans are spending on ads in the Senate race, according to an analysis of AdImpact data by Axios' Stef W. Kight and Hans Nichols. Why it matters: Every senator gets one vote, but Senate seats aren't created equal — and they don't cost the same. 🎣 Zoom in: Like two years ago, the less-populated states have a dramatically higher dollar-per-voter ratio in 2026. Maine is in first place, followed by Alaska, which is scheduled to be hit with $76 million in ads — enough to suck up most of the state's inventory. Ohio is in fifth place on the dollar-per-voter metric, but it's on track to host the most expensive Senate race in the country — for the second cycle in a row. Keep reading.

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💰 2026's most expensive voters

Source: AdImpact, Census.gov Note: AdImpact data includes dollars spent on video advertisements on broadcast, cable and social media as well as spending estimates on streaming platforms. Chart: Stef Kight/Axios Every voting-age Mainer could get a $167 voucher for home heating oil with what Democrats and Republicans are spending on ads in the Senate race, according to an analysis of AdImpact data. Why it matters: Every senator gets one vote, but Senate seats aren't created equal — and they don't cost the same. Blame the Constitution, or curse Citizens United, but when it comes to TV spending, not all voters get the same investment. Zoom in: Like two years ago, the less-populated states have a dramatically higher dollar-per-voter ratio in 2026. Maine is in first place, followed by Alaska, which is scheduled to be hit with $76 million in ads — enough to suck up most of the state's inventory. Between the lines: Ohio is in fifth place on the dollar-per-voter metric — tying with The Ohio State University in the latest AP football rankings, but we digress. Ohio is on track to host the country's most expensive Senate race for the second cycle in a row. Sherrod Brown's comeback bid is proving more expensive than his 2024 race, when he was ousted by now-Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio). And in New Hampshire, where Democratic Senate nominee Chris Pappas has been warning that his race is actually quite close, both parties are spending heavily to reach the state's voters. Data: AdImpact Note: AdImpact data includes dollars spent on video advertisements on broadcast, cable and social media as well as spending estimates on streaming platforms. Chart: Stef Kight/Axios The big picture: All year, Republicans warned that Texas would get really expensive if state Attorney General Ken Paxton won the primary. They were right. Outside GOP groups spent a mind-blowing $131 million in just 17 days trying to rescue Paxton. Tens of millions more could be on the way. But in North Carolina, where Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), predicted the race could cost $1 billion, the contest looks like it will come in under $200 million. Republican super PACs are abandoning the Senate race there as they reallocate money to redder states. The bottom line: Republicans have a spending advantage, especially when it comes to how many eyeballs they're actually reaching in Texas and Ohio. But neither side has figured out how to play moneyball and reach voters on a dramatically smaller budget. — Hans Nichols and Stef Kight

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California Voting Crackdown

Federal officials arrested more than two dozen people in California accused of voting illegally in US elections. The crackdown comes two weeks before the US midterm elections on Nov. 3. All of the people arrested are lawful permanent residents but not US citizens, the Justice Department says. They are on a list of more than 20,000 names the DOJ tagged as “likely” noncitizens to whom California mailed ballots this year. The DOJ last week sued the state to prevent election officials from counting those ballots until immigration status is confirmed; California says the DOJ did not provide any evidence to support the allegations.  Since 1996, 73 noncitizens have been convicted of voting illegally. The Census Bureau this year suggested upward of 24,000 voters in the 2020 election were noncitizens; see criticisms of that finding. ps:Of course not!! How many times did the trump people take this to court? 60+ I believe and lost each time!! Even SCOTUS rejected to look at this!!!!

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🗳️ Where early voting is surging

Data: UF Election Lab tracker. Map: David Adkins/Axios More than 12.6 million Americans have already cast ballots in the midterm elections, according to the University of Florida Election Lab's tracker. Georgia and Virginia lead reporting states in early turnout as a share of all ballots cast in the 2022 midterms, Axios' David Adkins and Herb Scribner write. Signs of strong early turnout are also emerging in other states. In Texas, Dallas County reported a record 76,079 in-person votes on Monday, the first day of early voting. In North Carolina, early voting was running 37% ahead of the same point in the 2022 midterms as of Oct. 18, with registered Democrats casting more than twice as many ballots as Republicans.

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20 million+ ballots already cast ahead of midterms

Voters wait in line to cast their ballots early in Ravenna, Ohio, on October 12. (David Maxwell/AFP via Getty Images)

More than 20 million Americans have already cast their ballots in the midterm elections, and that number is expected to grow considerably in the coming days. Early in-person voting begins or expands in four major states this weekend: Florida, Michigan, New Jersey and New York.

By Election Day on November 3, experts say as many as two-thirds of all votes could already be cast, either by mail or through early voting. And those early numbers appear to reinforce a trend we’ve been watching all week: growing enthusiasm among Democratic voters.

In several key states, Democrats account for a larger share of early voters than they did at this point two years ago, according to a CNN analysis. But the picture is far from complete. Republicans have historically favored voting on Election Day, leaving plenty of time for the balance to shift.

+ For subscribers: What early voting data is showing ahead of the 2026 midterms

+ Meanwhile: Elon Musk is the largest disclosed donor in the race, contributing at least $445 million

+ Stay informed: Sign up for CNN’s midterms newsletter ps:Well I did my duty about 2 weeks ago or so!!

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📊 Young voters shift to Dems

Chart: Rachel Buigas-Lopez/The New York Times 70% of young voters identified as Democrats or leaned that way — a 15-point jump from just two years ago, a New York Times/Siena poll found. 53% said they fear the U.S. is in danger of failing as a nation, up from 38% two years ago. NYT gift link.

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🗳️ Election security blind spots

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

Some of the biggest vulnerabilities in election security are lying in plain sight, Axios' Brittany Gibson writes. Why it matters: There's no credible evidence that voting-system vulnerabilities have been exploited to change election results. But researchers have found isolated flaws that threaten ballot secrecy, accurate vote recording and independent verification of results. 🔎 Election security experts interviewed by Axios found these vulnerabilities in parts of the U.S.: 1. Paperless voting: Louisiana is the last remaining state to use paperless voting machines statewide on Election Day. Voters press buttons to select their candidates, and the machines record their votes electronically without producing a paper ballot. That leaves no independent record to check whether votes were counted correctly. 2. Ballot-marking devices (BMDs) let voters select candidates on a touchscreen before printing a paper ballot. Researchers warn the machines are vulnerable to hacking and errors, and studies show voters often miss mistakes on the printout. Roughly 23% of U.S. registered voters live in jurisdictions that exclusively use BMDs for in-person voting, according to the nonprofit Verified Voting. 3. A software flaw in Georgia's vote-counting system could be used to expose how individual voters cast their ballots, according to research from Princeton University. Researcher Max Springer used public voter records and roughly $20 in AI credits to reconstruct the order in which nearly all in-person ballots were cast in the Georgia counties he studied. With an additional public record, Springer matched individual voters to their ballots, as he showed with two counties and 2,200 votes in his study. Keep reading.

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🗳️ Early voting surge

Data: Axios research. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios More than 39 million Americans have cast early votes so far — with unusually strong turnout among Black, Hispanic and unaffiliated voters in several states, Axios' Josephine Walker writes. Overall turnout could rival the 2018 "blue wave," which saw the highest participation rate since 1914, University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald says. Keep reading.

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Democrats are energized. Republicans are uneasy

(Juan Carlo/Reuters)

Across the country, Republicans are growing concerned that low enthusiasm could hurt voter turnout, from high-profile races to down-ballot contests.

In Georgia, Rick Jackson, the GOP nominee for governor, said that rural voters have grown complacent. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis called Republican turnout underwhelming. And in Texas, conservative candidate Bo French criticized Republicans, particularly men, for lagging behind Democrats in early voting.

President Donald Trump is also changing course in the final days of the midterm campaign. He canceled planned visits to Iowa and Kansas, where Senate races are tight, opting instead for telephone rallies. Adding another layer of uncertainty, an Election Day storm could affect voter turnout in key races across the central US.

+ Read more: How the GOP is confronting its voter enthusiasm deficit

+ The forecast: Severe weather looms over Election Day

+ Early voting: More than 43 million Americans have already cast their ballots

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📺 Watch like a pro

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

You won't need to stay up all night Tuesday to spot a big Democratic wave. But it could take days — or even weeks — to know whether Republicans have survived a smaller one and held on to the House or Senate. 🔮 Why it matters: A handful of early results in key states and congressional districts will tell us whether Democrats are headed for a landslide or disappointment. 🐊 What we're watching: Florida. Florida. Florida. Most polls close at 7pm ET, and the state counts quickly — ready for release when the Panhandle finally calls it a night an hour later. 🚨 At 8:01pm, refresh your browser and watch FL-14. The great mid-cycle redistricting wars transformed this Tampa-based district from Harris +8 to Trump +11. If Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor survives, Republicans can all but kiss their majority goodbye, according to party strategists. Next up is FL-25. The country's most expensive general election race is playing out in a district that went from Harris +4 to Trump +9. If Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz's race is close — or too close to call early in the night — House Republicans can keep hope alive. ⚡️ While you're at it, this is a good time to check on South Carolina's Senate race, where polls close at 7pm ET, and the state counts relatively fast. If Sen. Darline Graham loses to Democratic nominee Annie Andrews in the Trump +18 state, Senate Republicans can kiss their majority goodbye. (And they'll be sweating if it's close). "Underperformance is rarely isolated," said Jason Thielman, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2024. "If you see the GOP underperforming early in the East, it is likely going to continue as you move farther West." ⏭️ At 9pm ET, check in on Virginia: The commonwealth's polls close at 7pm, but historically tight races often aren't called until the 9pm hour. If Democrats flip VA-01, a Trump +5 seat, they're in for a very good night. If they flip VA-05, a Trump +12 seat, they're in for a great night. Between the lines: VA-02 could tell us whether a strong Republican candidate can survive a Democratic wave, and whether Speaker Mike Johnson can keep his job. Trump carried the Hampton Roads district by just 0.2 percentage points in 2024, while Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans won by 3.8 points. The AP didn't call her race until 5:28pm ET the following Wednesday. GOP strategists believe Kiggans has run a nearly flawless campaign. If even she gets swept away in a 50-50 district, other Republicans in a low-single-digit Trump seat should brace for impact. If she holds on, that could bode well for Sen. Susan Collins in Maine and Rep. Ashley Hinson in the Iowa Senate race. The intrigue: Also keep an eye on Kentucky's 6th District. Polls close there at 6pm ET, but the state takes a more genteel approach to counting ballots. If Democrats take the open Lexington-based seat (Trump +15), Republicans will be downing their bourbon. Neat. 🤠 Moving west: Polls close in Ohio at 7:30pm and Texas at 8pm ET, but Texas counts faster. If Ken Paxton is holding on in Texas, Republicans still have a path to keeping their Senate majority. Iowa polls close at 9pm ET. If Hinson is looking good, the night might not be as bad as many Republicans feared. 😴 The bottom line: Don't stay up for the Senate results in either Maine or Alaska. Even a clear win (or defeat) for Collins may not be obvious until Wednesday. In 2020, when she won by nearly 9 percentage points, the AP didn't call the race until lunchtime Wednesday. In Alaska, with its ranked-choice voting, results could take weeks. — Hans Nichols

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Early voting surges in key states

People hold signs directing voters to a polling place Wednesday in Minneapolis. Photo: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images This year's early voting is significantly outpacing the last midterm elections, according to an Associated Press analysis of voting data five days before Election Day. More than 43 million Americans have voted early in person or returned mail-in ballots — nearly 10 million more than in 2022. The figures cover 47 states and D.C., compared with 48 states and D.C. four years ago. 🏛️ There have been particularly sharp increases in states hosting big competitive races. In Texas, where voters are deciding closely watched Senate, House and governor's races, more than 6.3 million people voted early as of Wednesday. That's compared with 4.2 million at the same point four years ago, a 50% increase. Candidates' signs outside a polling place in Houston on Oct. 19. Photo: Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images 🗳️ Early voting has also increased more than 30% from the same point four years ago in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas. In South Carolina, where voters are choosing a successor to the late Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, early voting is up 83%. Between the lines: In states that provide party affiliation data, about 6.8 million Democrats and 5.2 million Republicans have voted early. Those figures don't account for all early voters nationwide, or indicate which candidates received their votes. Go deeper.

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🗳️ Pope makes voting history

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo via Getty Images Pope Leo XIV has voted in the Illinois midterm elections using a mail-in ballot, Axios' Josephine Walker reports. That makes him the first sitting pope to vote in a U.S. election. ⛪️ The Holy See Press Office said in a statement that Leo "has exercised his right to vote as a United States citizen, whenever he was eligible to do so" and that "in keeping with this long-standing practice of civic participation, he has submitted his mail-in ballot in Chicago." The statement added that Leo believes "in the right and the duty of citizens to participate in democratic processes." 🫏🐘 Leo has voted in both Democratic and Republican primaries over the last two decades. Go deeper.

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If you care about affordability, vote with climate in mind

Like many Americans, the issue that is top of mind for me as we approach the midterms is affordability, or rather, a lack thereof. That’s why I’m disappointed to see how few voters, and even candidates, are focused on climate change this election.

https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/if-you-care-about-affordability-vote-climate-mind?

↩️ Young voters' U-turn

Data: Generation Lab/Axios. Chart: Avery Lotz/Axios In 2024, the Trump campaign made inroads with the youth vote by seizing on manosphere cultural stars to connect with young Americans: They voted Republican in higher-than-usual numbers. Two years later, President Trump's youth support has dropped, Axios' Avery Lotz and Margaret Talev write. 📊 In a new Generation Lab poll for Axios, 48% of 18-to-29-year-old, college-educated Democrats, 22% of independents and 6% of Republicans called Trump the biggest threat to America today. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely midterm voters published last week found that 7 in 10 young voters (ages 18-29) identified as or leaned toward Democrats — a 15-point swing from before the 2024 election. Keep reading.

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Poll closing times by state

CNN will begin projecting winners this evening after polls close, but several key races may remain too close to call for days. Vote-counting procedures vary by state, meaning some results will come quickly while others could take longer. At the same time, a storm that brought historic flooding to the Southwest is moving into the central US, where even less severe conditions could potentially affect voter turnout.

+ Election night: When polls close — and when to expect results

+ Video: Can a little rain make a big difference on Election Day?

+ For subscribers: Nearly 60 million have already voted. Here’s what the early stats tell us