Scientists predict Southwest mega-drought

[CyberGuy]

Scientists predict Southwest mega-drought

Climate models indicate region will be as dry as Dust Bowl for decades

WASHINGTON - Changing climate will mean increasing drought in the American Southwest ? a region where water already is in tight supply ? according to a new study.

?The bottom line message for the average person and also for the states and federal government is that they?d better start planning for a Southwest region in which the water resources are increasingly stretched,? said Richard Seager of Columbia University?s Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory.

Seager is lead author of the study published online Thursday by the journal Science.

Researchers studied 19 computer models of the climate, using data dating back to 1860 and projecting into the future, to the year 2100. The same models were used in preparing the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The consensus of the models was that climate in the southwestern United States and parts of northern Mexico began a transition to drier conditions late in the 20th century and is continuing the trend in this century, as climate change alters the movement of storms and moisture in the atmosphere. The models show the drying trend continuing all the way to 2100 ? for more than 90 years.

"If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought, or the Dust Bowl and 1950s droughts, will, within the coming years to decades, become the new climatology of the American Southwest," the researchers wrote.

In a telephone interview, Seager said that doesn?t mean there would be dust storms like those of the 1930s Dust Bowl, because conditions at that time were also complicated by poor agricultural practices. But he said the reduction in rainfall could be equivalent to those times when thousands of farmers abandoned their parched land and moved away in search of jobs.

Currently, the majority of water in the Southwest is used in agriculture, but the urban population of the region is growing and so the water needs of people are growing as well, he explained.

?So, in a case where there is a reduced water supply, there will have to be some reallocation between the users,? Seager said. ?The water available is already fully allocated.? He said feels that adjustments can be made to deal with the change, perhaps by withdrawing some land from production and by conserving water in urban areas. ?But it?s something that needs to be planned for,? Seager said. ?It?s time to start thinking how to deal with that.?

Jonathan T. Overpeck, director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona, said the finding ?agrees with what is already happening in the Southwest, and will be further complicated by the already declining spring snowpack due to warming.? ?These are scary results, but scary in part because they are results of well thought-out scientific work by a large number of strong scientists,? said Overpeck, who was not part of the research team. In other reports in this week?s issue of Science:

Researchers led by Alan Gange of the University of London reported that as a result of warming temperatures some species of mushrooms and toadstools in southern England have begun to fruit twice a year rather than just once. They found that some species that previously only fruited in October now also fruit in April. In addition, the length of the fruiting period has grown over time and in the last decade alone it has more than doubled, they found. Deep waters in the North Atlantic some 125,000 years ago were warmer than they are now and may have helped melt the Antarctic ice sheets, according to researchers led by Jean-Claude Duplessy of the Laboratory of Climate and the Environment of Institute Pierre Simon Laplace outside Paris. Deep North Atlantic water flows south and then rises to the surface near Antarctica. The researchers said that current warming climate trends indicate similar conditions to that period could occur in the next couple of centuries.

[CyberGuy]

Tree rings in the American southwest show us that for the last 150 years we have had more than average rainfall. Now we are headed into a less than normal rainfall right at a time when the population in the American southwest needs more than average rainfall to support its needs.

What to do?

Ban all agriculture so the Urban areas can live in comfort with their swimming pools?

Ban lawns and gardens?

Ban Swimming pools.

Due to global warming the rain patterns have shifted north. What used to come to SoCal and Arizona now goes to San Francisco and Oakland and Mid California and further north. Rain seems to evaporate before it gets to SoCal. We have the driest winter on record since records started in 1860.

[CyberGuy]

Do we

Build Desalination plants to make fresh water from Sea Water.

Santa Barbara did that and water now costs 40 percent more than it did before. However 40 percent of their water comes from that plant now. At least they will have water.

The governor of Alaska has offered to sell water from melting Snows in Alaska to SOCAL. But how to transport it here. That would take an engineering feat unpresented to build a water pipeline that would be resistant to freezing in winter all the way from Alaska to SOCAL and Arizona.

We have the water storage centers so all the water could be piped down in summer as the snows melt but such a pipeline would cost hundreds of billions of dollars. WOuld the taxpayer of California, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Colorado support such a huge endever.

Could be cheaper just to build the desaliation plants.

[Dr. Shane]

70% of the cost of RO desalination is electricity. That can make if very expensive.

The cost of desalination can be offset by power generation when the steam desalination is used. That is, the same energy spent to desalinize water can be used to generate electricity at the same time thus producing two products: fresh water and electricity. This is being done in the middle east. Nuclear power can be incorporated into it and some environmentalists are making solar power models.

Basically sea water is boiled and the steam is sent through a turbine which generates electricity. The steam is then cooled through a distilling system and comes out fresh water. Salt and other minerals are left behind.

[CyberGuy]

Another fact to consider is that the contracts to take a large portion of the colorado river water for SoCal runs out in less than 10 years. When that happens Colordado wants to renegotiate the terms so that more water is left for Colorado. Just another reason so start planning now for less water. No one seems to want to tackle this issue. It would be unpopular to raise taxes to pay for desaliation plants. People do not want to pay more in taxes until they see a real need like when the tap water starts to triple in price.

Before the Desaliation plant was built in Santa Barbara during the last drought in the 1990's the city put a surcharge on all water usage over a certain cap. It was excessive.

One irate homeowner stormed into city hall waving her water bill screaming. This is not a water bill. This is a G** D*** house payment. This was reported in the papers. Now magnify that for all of SoCal and you can see the problem. No water or high price of water could cause civil unrest.

[Dr. Shane]

The Santa Barbara plant is a RO desalination plant which means 70% of its operating cost goes to electricity and the only thing it produces fresh water. The dual purpose desalination plants are going to make the RO plants obsolete.

[CyberGuy]

In any case we should be planning to build a lot of Desalination plants to supply our water shortfalls for the American Southwest. We are not going to get it from rain for the next 100 plus years it looks like.

[LynnDel]

What I find interesting are the letters to the editor in Central California newspapers. They complain that the farmers take too much of the water when cities should have priority, in their opinion. One wonders if these complainers ever ponder the source of their food supply.

However, that said, the farmers in California do get cheap water, and for that reason, they do not use water conserving watering methods.

P.S. Does anyone notice how the mention of the word "food" creates an automatic link? Sneaky sneaky sneaky! Food food Food Food food fooooooooood!

[Woody]

Quote:

Scientists predict Southwest mega-drought

I stopped listening to these kinds of "scientific" ... the sky is falling is falling comments long ago.