Wet-Behind-The-Ears

[Dr. Shane]

Well, I have to confess, I did not think that old Barak Wet-behind-the-ears Obama would be showing this high in the polls this close to the primaries. I do think he offers more hope of getting elected than Hillary Clinton but am surprise someone with so little experience is doing so well in the polls. I think Hillary is clearly the one with the most experience and qualifications but she has so many negatives it will be harder for her to win in the Fall than it would be for Obama.

[Woody]

Having the black vote sewed up should help him.

Of course Hillary would have the females sewed up and there are more females minus the black females than blacks.

[lazarus]

Quote:

Having the black vote sewed up should help him

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/poli...nton_study.html

WASHINGTON -- Hillary Clinton is overwhelmingly popular with black voters, drawing higher approval ratings than the only major African-American candidate running for president, according to a study released today by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.

Clinton's own record as First Lady and New York senator -- along with her marriage to former President Bill Clinton, who is very popular among black voters -- earned her an 83 percent approval rating among likely black voters, compared to 75 percent who ranked Illinois Senator Barack Obama positively, the study said.

[Woody]

What good are polls?

Why would a black potential voter admit to a white pollster that he/she was voting for the black inexperienced guy?

[lazarus]

Black voters like most other people will vote their interests. The perception is that Clinton will best serve their interests.

[Bravus]

We've just had an election in Australia. All year the polls were running 55% for Labor (the challengers) and 45% for the Liberal-National party Coalition (the incumbent government). All year people on the conservative side of politics were saying 'what good are polls?' (Along with 'I was never polled and neither was anyone I know' and 'the silent majority will change all that on voting day'). On voting day it narrowed a little bit, but ended up at about 53% Labor and 47% Coalition... so pretty accurate.

I think Obama has quite a lot of political experience, although not as much as Clinton, and also has a fair bit of life experience. He also doesn't have the disadvantage Clinton has of a massive pool of rusted-on haters.

I think Clinton would be an excellent president in terms of performance, but would be divisive for the country, just because so many people can't get over their hatred for her. Obama has more of a clean slate. Politically and on policy I'm closest to Kucinich, but I don't think he has a chance of being the nominee. On the whole I think the Democrats have their best chance of gaining the presidency with Obama. And they have to gain the presidency, because Giuliani is - hard as it is to believe - in many ways even scarier than Bush.

[lazarus]

I took a bit of an interest in the Aussie election a couple of days before the vote. It reminded me of UK politics, which is a good thing. Why is the Liberal National party called liberal? They seem anything but liberal to me. It was confusing to me a first. They are a conservative party right?

I have the same "fear" about Obama as many black folks in the US. I think that he simply can't win. I honestly don't believe the US will elect a black democratic president. I think they would elect a black republican however. If its Obama v Giulliani, or Obama v Romney, Obama v Huck, I believe many will simply go for the white guy. I think the Right wants Obama because they know when it comes down to it he won't appeal to enough independent white voters.

I think that the dems have their best chance with Hillary or even Edwards. Hillary has the first woman president thing and Edwards is from the South. I think in recent polls (I could be wrong) Edwards fairs the best when up against Giullaini or Romney.

There's a new biography of Giulliani called "Grand Illusion". I listened to a radio interview with the author. Lord help us if he gets elected.

[jasd]

>>Black voters like most other people will vote their interests. The perception is that Clinton will best serve their interests.<<

Shazam! the problem – or should I, more correctly have said, diversity?

Yes, I suppose the vacancy of multiculturalism and diversity cannot be remedied – as to endue the self-interested voter to consider the welfare of the nation above and before that of his/her own.

Evidently, it’s too much to expect that, given the extent of our slide into diversity..., we might produce the numbers of citizens with the sagacity and calibre of a Buchanan or a Coulter – to reverse our situation – before Internal Strife, once again, overtakes us, as did the dark smoke of Geo Washington’s vision.

[Bravus]

Bwahahaha hahahaha hahaha, oh stop it jasd, you're killing me here. Your satire is always lovely, but a line like 'sagacity... of a Coulter' is just gold.

[Dr. Shane]

Polls are very accurate. It is very rare they are wrong. They normally have a 2% or 3% margin of error and normally fall within that margin.

I do not believe Obama has even completed his first term as a senator and before that he served in state politics.

[jasd]

>>Bwahahaha hahahaha hahaha, oh stop it jasd, you're killing me here.<<

Aww, gee shucks [/smilin’] ...was simply jigging with a coupla two-three trebles ;-)

>>Your satire is always lovely, but a line like 'sagacity... of a Coulter' is just gold.<<

I guess that means Buchanan stands? and mebbe? Coulter-as-Sophia...?

[Neil D]

I think Clinton would be an excellent president in terms of performance, but would be divisive for the country, just because so many people can't get over their hatred for her. Obama has more of a clean slate. Politically and on policy I'm closest to Kucinich, but I don't think he has a chance of being the nominee. On the whole I think the Democrats have their best chance of gaining the presidency with Obama. And they have to gain the presidency, because Giuliani is - hard as it is to believe - in many ways even scarier than Bush.

You've pretty much sumed up what I feel is a fair assessment. I would add that Hillary has tripped up on the last couple of debats and has 'whined' some...Don't think I could support a woman who uses the arguement "they're after me because I am a woman"...sorry, but it doesn't fly with me...She needs to be tough amid the world leaders...and that arguement doesn't fly with Arab leaders either...And there are times when during the debate, she appeared to waffle...like she wanted the presidency more than she wanted to be a leader...

Wish the media would talk to Kucinich, and listen to him and give more airtime to him....Oh well...

[Bravus]

Hmm, how much do you think Oprah throwing her (fluctuating) weight behind Obama changes the picture?

[Woody]

Quote:

Wish the media would talk to Kucinich, and listen to him and give more airtime to him....Oh well...

The time given to him has only made him look alien to most of us.

[Dr. Shane]

Celebrity endorsements do not normally do much because the opposing candidate normally simply has other celebrity endorsements. However what Oprah is doing that may help Obama is raising money. Money does help candidates and Oprah is hosting a number of fund raisers for Obama.

[olger]

Couple of observations.

- There is a plethora of women woho can't stand Mrs. Clinton. And they would not vote for her under any circumstance.

- Mrs. Clinton is a very angry individual. I've been trained to observe such things. It keeps flashing through her speech, thoughts and actions. Jesus said that this would happen (our heart will be revealed in three ways).

- She has done nothing to qualify her for the task of President, except marry Bill. That means nothing. She hasn't run any business, or done anything noteworthy, except push her socialist agenda on anyone who would listen.

- Ron Paul makes a lot of sense. More than Guliani in my opinion.

- Huckabee might be looking good.

- Our country is ready for a black male president much more than a woman president.

- In the last 6 - years, there have been several collisions between the black agenda and the feminist agenda. The Black agenda won. Note that and have a good night,

olger

[Bravus]

I actually like quite a bit of what Ron Paul says: if the US ends up with a Republican president he is far, far better than Giuliani. Huckabee is interesting too, but worries me (will drop back later to talk about why).

I still think Hillary is unelectable, and that even if she was elected there would be such a smear-and-fear campaign that she would be an ineffective president.

[olger]

Thanks Bravus.

I agree about RP.

Mrs. Clinton is an easy target because of her manner & pride. her ability to be ineffective reaches well beyond GOP reactions.

In summary: It doesn't matter much what a non-citizen thinks anyway. I couldn't vote in Australia.

best wishes,

[Jeannieb43]

I actually like quite a bit of what Ron Paul says: if the US ends up with a Republican president he is far, far better than Giuliani. Huckabee is interesting too, but worries me (will drop back later to talk about why).

I still think Hillary is unelectable, and that even if she was elected there would be such a smear-and-fear campaign that she would be an ineffective president.

Don't forget to "come back later," Bravus, and comment on Huckabee.

The L.A.Times reported about Huckabee's granting the release from parole of a convicted rapist, who then immediately raped and murdered another woman. Huckabee is extremely sorry about having been involved in that release from parole, but he's quoted as believing that the criminal was "saved," because they had had a series of Bible studies together.

www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-na-huckabee8dec08,1,1727258.story

[Woody]

Saved before or after the latest rape and murder?

[lazarus]

I really feel that if anyone besides Hillary/Edwards is nominated the Dems will lose the election. Hillary is electable precisely because she is married to Bill. She is well connected and is a political insider. She will do what her husband did and what Tony Blair did in the UK. They both captured territory that was typically considered to be conservative. Monetary policy and defense issues.

Ron Paul is great on the war but he's a Libertarian!!!!! On many issues he would be worse than Gulliani.

I don't agree with a lot of what Newt Gingrich says but I agree with his prediction of a Clinton/Obama ticket.

[lazarus]

Here's a good poll website. You'll see why Clinton in still the favorite.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

[Dr. Shane]

Quote:

In summary: It doesn't matter much what a non-citizen thinks anyway. I couldn't vote in Australia.

All comments are welcome here. One needn't be a US citizen to have a valid comment about US politics. I know I comment a lot on politics of other nations.

[Dr. Shane]

Quote:

The L.A.Times reported about Huckabee's granting the release from parole of a convicted rapist...

I don't expect objective reporting from the L.A.Times.

Huckabee couldn't have stopped the parole if he had wanted to. However even if he could have and didn't, is the worst thing we can say about him is that he extended mercy to someone he thought had repented?

[Bravus]

Yeah, I know my 2c worth is only worth about 1.9c on current exchange rates because it's in Australian cents!

Still, wouldn't surprise me if I read more and know more about US politics than a reasonably large proportion of those who *d0* vote there...