It Is Getting Close

[Dr. Shane]

Rasmussen is reporting that the Presidencial race is tied at 48% as of yesterday. Zogby is reporting that McCain/Palin are ahead by 4% - 45% to 49%.

We got ourselves a real horse race. With two good candidates, I expect this one to go into the early morning hours of the day after election day.

[Dr. Shane]

Gallup is now reporting McCain ahead by 3% - 45% to 48%. This is going to make the debates interesting.

[John317]

Gallup Daily: McCain Moves Ahead, 48% to 45%

McCain enjoying increase in support following convention

USAElection 2008Gallup DailyAmericasNorthern America

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 48% to 45%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today.

These results are based on Sept. 4-6 interviewing, and include two full days of polling after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention last Thursday night. McCain has outpolled Obama on both Friday and Saturday, and is receiving a convention bounce just as Obama did last week.

Tomorrow's report will be the first in which all interviews were conducted after the conclusion of the convention. Gallup measures convention bounces by comparing candidate support in the last poll done entirely before a party's presidential nominating convention begins with the first polling conducted entirely after its conclusion.

McCain's 48% share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March. He registered the same level of support in early May. This is also McCain's largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points. Obama has led McCain for most of the campaign, and for nearly all of the time since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Jeff Jones

Survey Methods

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general-election results are based on combined data from Sep. 4-6, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,765 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[John317]

I expect that the polls will change from time to time between now and the election, with a different candidate taking a slight lead each time. I think this just shows how close the election will be and how undecided America still is. It will probably remain this way through the last week of October.

Either candidate could still win.

[John317]

I'm only hoping for a clear winner when it's all said and done.

Please no more chads-- no more supreme court decisions-- and no more decisions made in the congress.

[Bravus]

Amen to that last.

And I suspect this finding of McCain's nose peeking in front is the expected convention bounce. Obama lay low while all the Palin fever was on, so it's to be expected that he would slip a little in the week of the convention.

Let's keep an eye on 'em.

Hey Redwood, still want to say the polls are fatally flawed and shouldn't be believed?

[Bravus]

I thought the topic heading might be a reference to the fact that after what seems like an eternal campaign it's now less than 2 months until the actual election.

The Canucks do it right: hadn't heard anything at all about the election, just announced it, and they still go to the polls nearly a month earlier than the Yanks!

[Dr. Shane]

Obama did an interview with O'Reilly the day of McCain's acceptance speech hoping to stay in the news during the Republican convention. I don't think we can say he was laying low. BTW: I think that was a good tactic too.

[Stan]

I thought the topic heading might be a reference to the fact that after what seems like an eternal campaign it's now less than 2 months until the actual election.

The Canucks do it right: hadn't heard anything at all about the election, just announced it, and they still go to the polls nearly a month earlier than the Yanks!

There was a comment about the Canadian election on CNN, said the Prime Minister called the election, he can not do that, but he did ask the head of state too. www.gg.ca and she did (BTW the head of state in Canada is a Black Woman)

They had also mentioned recently that Canada was a Democratic Country, it is not, It is a Constitutional Monarchy.

[Dr. Shane]

Poll: Convention lifts McCain over Obama

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.

Among the findings:

• Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%.

• Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a national unknown before McCain chose her for the ticket 10 days ago, draws a strong reaction from voters on both sides. Now, 29% say she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 21% less likely.

Obama's choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as running mate made 14% more likely to vote for the Democrat, 7% less likely.

• McCain's acceptance speech Thursday received lower ratings than the one Obama gave a week earlier: 15% called McCain's speech "excellent" compared with 35% for Obama.

[text taken from link]

[John317]

Yes, I saw that item. I wondered about that. The news article I read said that Queen Elizabeth is actually the head of state-- not sure of the actual term it used.

I would not like it if the president of the U.S. could dissolve Congress. The president can call Congress back to work, if they want to do it, but the powers of Congress and the President and the courts are totally separate.

Of course Canada's government is patterned after Britain's government. Considering the history of Canada, I am wondering if the French government also had an influence on the Canadian form?

It's been a while since I studied the British and Canadian forms of government.

My impression is that US citizens and Canadians are very much alike, but Canadians are generally farther to the left of us on the political spectrum. Americans tend to be more conservative as a whole. Is that how you see it?

[John317]

Yes, no question that Obama is a better public speaker especially when he uses a tele-prompter. He is certainly talented. I thought that the first time I heard him speak after winning Iowa.

Of course we have had many poor public speakers as president. Two of our greatest were awful: George Washington and Thomas Jefferson. Abraham Lincoln was a wonderful writer but he had a pretty bad speaking voice.

The election is certainly turning out to be interesting, isn't it?

As a speaker and otherwise, McCain reminds me a lot of Truman. I can't think of anyone Obama is like. But as a speaker when he has the tele, he reminds me of John Kennedy somewhat. In many other ways, however, Obama is not like Kennedy.

[Woody]

Quote:

Hey Redwood, still want to say the polls are fatally flawed and shouldn't be believed?

Yes. I believe that there is an under-reporting for McCain because Obama is black. People want to be PC when a pollster talks to them.

[John317]

I think so too.

I believe the polls will show the candidates up and down in the ratings. The most accurate ones will be just the last two or three days.

[Kountzer]

I am being less sure Obama can win. As I said before I don't have a lot of hopes and dreams tied to his coat tails. I don't think either candidate will make an appreciable difference in the course of the world.

[Woody]

Are you aware of the most current news?

FYI ... McCain has picked Palin. If ANYONE can make change ... SHE can.

[Kountzer]

She'll make a lot of noise and call it change.

[Woody]

At this moment I am watching her on Fox ... speak in Ohio.

She seems to be making some good "noise". I hope it wakes up a lot of people.

She just indicated that for the good of the State of Alaska ... she took a pay cut.

The crowd is loudly shouting ... Sarah, Sarah,Sarah. She seems popular there.

What is interesting is ... Sarah is making this long speech and McCain is just standing at her side all silent and not saying a word. I do think she is the best spokesperson of the two.