Racist Democrats & Obama

[Dr. Shane]

Poll: Racial misgivings of whites an Obama issue

Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks — many calling them "lazy," "violent" or responsible for their own troubles.

The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004 — about 2.5 percentage points.

Certainly, Republican John McCain has his own obstacles: He's an ally of an unpopular president and would be the nation's oldest first-term president. But Obama faces this: 40 percent of all white Americans hold at least a partly negative view toward blacks, and that includes many Democrats and independents.

More than a third of all white Democrats and independents — voters Obama can't win the White House without — agreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, according to the survey, and they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't have such views...

The pollsters set out to determine why Obama is locked in a close race with McCain even as the political landscape seems to favor Democrats. President Bush's unpopularity, the Iraq war and a national sense of economic hard times cut against GOP candidates, as does that fact that Democratic voters outnumber Republicans.

The findings suggest that Obama's problem is close to home — among his fellow Democrats, particularly non-Hispanic white voters. Just seven in 10 people who call themselves Democrats support Obama, compared to the 85 percent of self-identified Republicans who back McCain...

Race is not the biggest factor driving Democrats and independents away from Obama. Doubts about his competency loom even larger, the poll indicates. More than a quarter of all Democrats expressed doubt that Obama can bring about the change they want, and they are likely to vote against him because of that.

Three in 10 of those Democrats who don't trust Obama's change-making credentials say they plan to vote for McCain...

"We still don't like black people," said John Clouse, 57, reflecting the sentiments of his pals gathered at a coffee shop in Somerset, Ohio.

Given a choice of several positive and negative adjectives that might describe blacks, 20 percent of all whites said the word "violent" strongly applied. Among other words, 22 percent agreed with "boastful," 29 percent "complaining," 13 percent "lazy" and 11 percent "irresponsible." When asked about positive adjectives, whites were more likely to stay on the fence than give a strongly positive assessment.

Among white Democrats, one-third cited a negative adjective and, of those, 58 percent said they planned to back Obama...

Researchers used mathematical modeling to sort out the relative impact of a huge swath of variables that might have an impact on people's votes — including race, ideology, party identification, the hunger for change and the sentiments of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's backers.

Just 59 percent of her white Democratic supporters said they wanted Obama to be president. Nearly 17 percent of Clinton's white backers plan to vote for McCain.

Among white Democrats, Clinton supporters were nearly twice as likely as Obama backers to say at least one negative adjective described blacks well, a finding that suggests many of her supporters in the primaries — particularly whites with high school education or less — were motivated in part by racial attitudes.

[text from link, emphasis added]

[Dr. Shane]

Quote:

When asked about positive adjectives, whites were more likely to stay on the fence than give a strongly positive assessment.

"Religious" is the first positive adjective that comes to my mind. Others include "musical" "athletic" and "easy-going".

Of course, I don't want to reinforce any sterotypes. I am just pointing out some of the obvious ones that come to mind and one might mention if a pollster asked.

[Tom Wetmore]

I have a hunch that similar negative attitudes toward women among some ethnic groups and voters with HS diploma or less education, or against old geezers among younger voters could very well at least match this outcome on the Palin/McCain side to balance out and neutralize this speculative outcome.

Tom

[Bravus]

Kinda sad that the election may come down to the balance between racists and misogynists in the country.

[Dr. Shane]

What we see is McCain, a Republican, running against a popular and charismatic Senator. McCain is tied to an unpopular President with an unpopular war. More recently the economic collapse of the banking system has been hung around his neck. And yet Obama only has a 2% - 3% lead in the polls and may lose that after the debates or once people feel better about the banking issue.

Why? Is the question. Obama should have a 6% - 15% lead over McCain. This is not about speculating about what might happen but looking at what is happening.

[Bravus]

Maybe, although there are still an awful lot of welded-on Republicans who wouldn't change their vote if McCain {unthinkable outrage of your choice here} on the Capitol steps.

The latest polls are something like Obama 52, McCain 46, which is the 6% you asked for anyway.

I found this graph particularly revealing:

[Neil D]

I remember reading that the pundants said that Sarah would crash or implode....Hmmmmmmmmmm

[Woody]

The issue here is not who is leading in the national polls. The issue is the electoral college. What matters is who is leading in the key states such as Ohio and Michigan and Colorado.

[Bravus]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c..._college_update

[Woody]

No way that Oregon would go Republican. So, I would have to take issue that it is just 'leaning' Demo.

[Dr. Shane]

I use RealClearPolitics's polling average. Right now Obama is up 2.3% and that after a very tough week for McCain.

[Neil D]

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Just thought you should know....

[Dr. Shane]

RealClearPolitics uses Scott's polling data. I take no issue with Rasmussen. I tend to trust Rasmussen and Zogby above the others.