What would happen if Ted Stevens lost his election?

[Neil D]

Oohn the irony...Palin prolly wont be able to take the republican seat and Alaska would have a democrate senator....Ooooooh, now there's is salt in the wound for republicans...

UPDATE, 8:22 pm: In a remarkable turn of events, Democrat Mark Begich has surged into a three-vote (!) lead over Republican Sen. Ted Stevens with roughly half of the 90,000 remaining ballots now counted, according to a report on the Anchorage Daily News website. Roughly 43,000 of the 90,000 outstanding votes had been counted as of 8 pm eastern time with another 10,000 (or so) to go before counting stops for the day. That means that Begich has made up 3,200 votes in the space of a single day. Democrats need to be wary of premature celebration, however. It remains unclear exactly where all the uncounted ballots come from (geographically) so the lead could well change several times between now and when they stop counting on Nov. 19. Stay tuned.

ORIGINAL POST

Eight days after the general election race between Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens ® and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) formally concluded, more than 90,000 votes remain uncounted -- a huge question mark in the effort to determine who will be the next Senator from the Last Frontier.

The lack of certainty surrounding the outcome has left national party strategists in a state of limbo -- particularly given the wild scenarios that would ensue if Stevens, who was convicted in late October on seven felony counts, manages to win re-election.

Here's what we know:

* With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Stevens had 106,594 votes (48.2 percent) while Begich had 103,337 votes (46.7 percent). Three other third-party candidates combined to win 11,242 votes (5.1 percent). (All numbers are from the Associated Press.)

* There are approximately 90,000 early and absentee ballots -- almost 30 percent of the total vote -- still uncounted. (Isn't the point of early voting that the ballots get counted faster? But, we digress...). Of that number, 52,324 will be counted today, according to the Begich campaign.

* The drop dead date for all ballots to be counted is Nov. 19. The election will be certified on Nov. 25. A recount, which would automatically be triggered if the margin was .5 percent or less, would happen after the 25th. (Begich currently trails Stevens by 1.5 percent.)

* Alaska is four hours behind east coast time -- meaning that we may not know anything about the counting of the ballots today until tomorrow.

While they are behind by more than 3,000 votes, Democrats remain (cautiously) optimistic due to the large number of votes still uncounted and Begich's strength among those early votes that have been tabulated. (The incomparable Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com breaks down the numbers behind this argument.)

We should know by late today -- or maybe tomorrow morning -- whether that optimism is well founded or not. If Begich can't get ahead by the end of counting today, he's not likely to pull off the come-from-behind victory some Democrats see for him.

[Dr. Shane]

Even if Stevens wins and ends up resigning, I will be surprised if Palin appoints herself as governor. Historically, governors that appoint themselves senators do not win when they end up running for the position later. She would be better off finishing her first term as governor and running for re-election.

[Dr. Shane]

BTW: my personal opinion is that Ted Stevens deserves to lose his election. We will see how that turns out.