Obama’s Independents Problem

[bonnie]

Obama’s Independents Problem

2:35 PM, Apr 20, 2012 • By JEFFREY H. ANDERSON

Weekly Standard

Yesterday, Jay Cost discussed President Obama’s problem with independents, noting that Obama started to lose independents by the truckload when the debate over Obamacare heated up and “has never won [them] back.” Today, a new Quinnipiac poll further highlights the extent of the trouble that Obama faces in this regard.

Man and Superman.

Man and Superman.

The Quinnipiac poll surveyed an exceptionally large number of respondents, and therefore its sampling of independents is quite large — it surveyed 946 independents, all of them reported to be registered voters. So what does this survey tell us about independents’ reflections on the first 3-1/2 years (or so) of “hope and change”? Let’s take a look.

Do independents think they are “better off or worse off financially” than they were four years ago? By a margin of 14 percentage points (46 to 32 percent), they think they are “worse off,” rather than “better off.”

Are independents “satisfied” with “the way things are going in the nation today”? By a margin of 54 points (77 to 23 percent), they are at least somewhat “dissatisfied,” rather than at least somewhat “satisfied.” Even worse for Obama, 45 percent are “very dissatisfied,” while only 2 percent are “very satisfied.”

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (the recognized authority on such matters), we are now almost three years removed from the end of the recession that Obama inherited. So, what do independents think of the Obama “recovery”? By a margin of 41 points (69 to 28 percent), they think the country is still “in a recession now.”

“Who do [independents] trust to do a better job of handling the economy, President Obama or the Republicans in Congress?” By a margin of 13 points (48 to 35 percent), they trust the GOP members of Congress.

What do independents think of Obamacare, the defining legislation of Obama’s term? By a margin of 24 points (57 to 33 percent), they think Congress should “repeal it.”

To recap, by a margin of 14 points, independents think they are worse off financially, rather than better off financially, than they were four years ago. By a margin of 54 points, they think the country is headed in the wrong, rather than the right, direction — and those who are “very dissatisfied” with the country’s direction outnumber those who are “very satisfied” with its direction by better than 20 to 1. By a margin of 41 points, they think we are still in the midst of (what they regard as) a 4-year recession, rather than in the midst of a (multi-year) recovery. By a margin of 13 points, they trust congressional Republicans over Obama on the economy. And by a margin of 24 points, they want Obama’s signature legislation to be repealed.

To say these are poor numbers for an incumbent would be an obvious understatement.

[Woody]

Obama has been dropping fast in the polls. Praise God citizens have a brain this time around. Who in the world would want us to continue down the path that he as brought us?

[bonnie]

Obama has been dropping fast in the polls. Praise God citizens have a brain this time around. Who in the world would want us to continue down the path that he as brought us?

Don't get to overconfident. All depends on how many he can load in the wagon before Nov.

[Bravus]

Keep on believing Team Red has half a chance.

[bonnie]

Keep on believing Team Red has half a chance.

I believe what I said was for Woody not to become to overconfident.There are many more Obama can pile in the wagon the closer he gets to the election.Those in the wagon will not vote for anyone that wants them out of the wagon standing on their own two feet.That is a given

[Bravus]

Your cherry-picking correspondent wrote about the April 20 Quinnipiac poll but ignored this April 19 Quinnipiac poll which actually looks at preferred president: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and...?ReleaseID=1737

...and shows Obama ahead in pretty much every category.

[Dr. Shane]

The two latest polls are Rassmussen and Gallop. One has Obama up 3 points and the other has Romney up 1 point. It is statistically tied at this point. However the campaigns are just starting. I think this election is the Republicans to lose. Obama has been a huge failure. Of course, the 2004 election was the Democrats to lose and Kerry managed to do exactly that. So I buy no means think that Romney is a shoe in.

[Bravus]

Mmmm - tasty, juicy cherries!

Rasmussen is very much the outlier on this: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[bonnie]

Mmmm - tasty, juicy cherries!

Rasmussen is very much the outlier on this: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Not exactly sure what this post is about unless.....those receiving the juicy cherries at the expense of others will vote Obama.That is a given. The more of that type he can feed at the expense of those working 2-3 jobs the better chance he has.

Are you really worried that with record numbers receiving food stamps,medical and welfare benefits that he doesn't have an excellent chance of winning.

I have said from the beginning that he has a better than even chance of winning.

The one positive I take from the polls is the consistent low ratings of Obama. A wildly popular successful incumbent president should not be where he remains. Romney is polling quite well considering the many minions at Obama's disposal,and the ones being handfed

[Bravus]

Nup. That simply does not fly. It's a right-wing fantasy. Obama and Romney are pretty much level-pegging among all college-educated voters, which is the best proxy we have for the 'welfare culture' issue.

I know it's a hard concept to swallow, but there are many hard-working, highly educated, successful people who believe the policies of the Democratic Party are better for the nation and the people than those of the Republican Party.

[Bravus]

And Romney does *better* with the non-college educated voters. Since that is the group that is likely to include more welfare recipients of the two, the claim that Obama is buying votes with welfare is simply counter-factual.

[phkrause]

Nup. That simply does not fly. It's a right-wing fantasy. Obama and Romney are pretty much level-pegging among all college-educated voters, which is the best proxy we have for the 'welfare culture' issue.

I know it's a hard concept to swallow, but there are many hard-working, highly educated, successful people who believe the policies of the Democratic Party are better for the nation and the people than those of the Republican Party.

Exactly!

[phkrause]

And Romney does *better* with the non-college educated voters. Since that is the group that is likely to include more welfare recipients of the two, the claim that Obama is buying votes with welfare is simply counter-factual.

[Dr. Shane]

The polls don't typically start telling us who will actually win until after the Republican Convention in August. However they do tell us that Obama is in trouble. Notice that he is not polling above 50% in most of the polls. That is important because most undecided voters typically vote against the incumbent.

Coming out of the Republican primary Romney should be at about his lowest point. Now we are into the race and we should start to see more people paying attention.

It is hard for me to credit Obama with much leadership. He demonstrated that he cannot get people to agree with him that already agree with him. He cannot build coalitions and work with Republicans. He is no Bill Clinton. His signature issue was health care and he ended up signing the conservative Heritage Foundation's ideas into law even when he had super majorities in both houses of Congress. I can't see how anyone can see that as anything than an utter and complete failure in leadership.

[bonnie]

Nup. That simply does not fly. It's a right-wing fantasy. Obama and Romney are pretty much level-pegging among all college-educated voters, which is the best proxy we have for the 'welfare culture' issue.

I know it's a hard concept to swallow, but there are many hard-working, highly educated, successful people who believe the policies of the Democratic Party are better for the nation and the people than those of the Republican Party.

Obama had the low income and minority vote in 2008

bama With Wide Lead Among Low Income Voters - TalkLeft: The ...

A new July 10-13 WaPo/Harvard poll shows Barack Obama with a wide lead among voters earning less than $30,000/yr, 58-28 (the 24% undecided is hard to explain).

www.talkleft.com/story/2008/8/4/103340/4499 - Cached

Will be interesting to see who abandons him in 2012