GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters 556

[bonnie]

GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters

by John Nolte 29 Oct 2012, 5:25 PM PDT

Very early on, before this campaign started in earnest, live or die, I publicly cast my lot with Gallup and Rasmussen. As a poll addict going back to 2000, these are the outlets that have always played it straight. It's got nothing to do with politics and everything to do with credibility and not wanting to kid myself. So when an outlet like Gallup tells me Romney is up seven-points, 52-45%, among those who have already voted, that's very big news.

Just as Gallup did with their bombshell survey showing that 2012 is looking like a year where Republicans will enjoy a record three-point turnout advantage over Democrats (a ten-point shift from 2008), for whatever reason, they buried the lede with this latest bombshell, as well. When you consider the fact that the CorruptMedia's been talking for weeks about how Obama's crushing Romney in early voting, you would think Gallup proving that Narrative a big fat phony lie would be news. Instead, though, they bury this explosive news at the bottom of a piece headlined: "In U.S., 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots".

Sounds like a nothing story, right?

Except waaaaay at the bottom we learn this:

Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

When Gallup says early voters don’t seem to be swaying the election, presumably what they means is that because Romney is ahead by five points nationally, an early voting advantage of seven-points isn't going to "sway the election."

Romney's early voting lead in Gallup may not jive with the CorruptMedia narrative, but it does with actual early vote totals that have been released and show Romney's early vote totals either beating Obama in swing states such as Colorado and Florida or chipping away at the President's advantage in the others. For example, here's what we know about Ohio's early voting numbers, thus far:

But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.

Something else in this Gallup survey also helps shed some light on what we're seeing in these sometimes counter-intuitive state polls. As the headline states, Gallup is showing that only 15% of the public has already voted. Moreover, they've broken down early voting by region and show that in the Midwest only 13% of voters have already voted. And yet, many polls in places like Ohio show a much higher percentage of early voters, some as high as 30%, which you can bet skews the data. In other words, those polls can't be correct.

Other than the fact that this is Gallup, another reason to embrace this poll is due to its very large sample size of 3,312 registered voters.

[BobRyan]

GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters

by John Nolte 29 Oct 2012, 5:25 PM PDT

Very early on, before this campaign started in earnest, live or die, I publicly cast my lot with Gallup and Rasmussen. As a poll addict going back to 2000, these are the outlets that have always played it straight. It's got nothing to do with politics and everything to do with credibility and not wanting to kid myself. So when an outlet like Gallup tells me Romney is up seven-points, 52-45%, among those who have already voted, that's very big news.

Isn't this what the polls have been saying all along?

Or is this a "reality check" among pollsters at the last minute?

[bonnie]

Isn't this what the polls have been saying all along?

Or is this a "reality check" among pollsters at the last minute?

It will be interesting to say the least. A lot of people believe there has been something skewed about the polls for a long time.

Many of them have been polling more democrats to conservatives to come up with more favorable numbers for Obama.Even with that they cannot get Obama up to 50% for any length of time.

MN is interesting to watch.Last election you could not drive down any block without seeing signs 4-1 for Obama. This election it is rare to see a Obama sign. Conservative signs are frequent.

For many that I know personally,Benghazi appalled them and made them take a second look.

[bonnie]

SURPRISE SURPRISE

MARION — Joan Stevens was one of several early voters at the polls on Monday. But when Stevens tried to cast her ballot for president, she noticed a problem.

Upon selecting “Mitt Romney” on the electronic touch screen, Barack Obama’s name lit up.

It took Stevens three tries before her selection was accurately recorded.

“You want to vote for who you want to vote for, and when you can’t it’s irritating,” Stevens said.

Stevens said she alerted Jackie Smith, a board of elections member who was present. Smith declined to comment, but Stevens says she mentioned that the machine had been having problems all day.

Stevens also reported the issue to Sophia Rogers, the director of the board of elections for Marion County.

Rogers said the machine worked fine when she and others tried voting on it. No one else had reported problems with the voting machines malfunctioning.

Rogers suggested the issue may have been caused by not hitting the button directly or tapping with more than one finger. Stevens was aware the machine had to be operated a certain way.

“I know how to do the voting,” Stevens said.

Despite no problems with that particular machine, Rogers decided to take all precautions. She contacted the vendor and had them inspect the device.

“Because of her issue, we had that machine recalibrated,” Rogers said. “I am certain the equipment works properly.”

Rogers said that those still skeptic about using the electronic stations have the option of filling out a paper ballot, even voting from home and mailing via absentee ballot.

Voting in-person is open daily to all voters at 222 West Center Street through Election Day on November 6. All qualified Ohio voters can also submit an absentee ballot by filling out a form found at the Marion elections website at marionelections.com

[BobRyan]

[lazarus]

LOL, you guys believe in polls now.

[bonnie]

LOL, you guys believe in polls now.

Especially not this year. I find the polls interesting,is that some how funny to you?If so it doesn't take much to amuse some people.

Do I put a lot of faith in most polls.Nope.I have been called by a few polling and the questions are phrased in such a manner to get the answer wanted. One thing that has always stood out in the calls I have received.Asking if it is democrat or republican polling. The democrats sound a lot like Obama without his teleprompter,so far republicans have answered when asked the question

When polls that are usually in the tank for Obama begin to reluctantly give a inch to Romney and Gallup and Rassmusson are pretty close in agreement they do mean a little more

[BobRyan]

polls are all over the place -- this year like every year.

The only thing "of value" is looking at the sample representation -- as in "are they over sampling one group over another", and also how current numbers compare with past polling results in previous elections at the same point along the way as compared to those historic election results.

That tends to wash out the bias and uncertainty in the polls.

in Christ,

Bob

[bonnie]

polls are all over the place -- this year like every year.

The only thing "of value" is looking at the sample representation -- as in "are they over sampling one group over another", and also how current numbers compare with past polling results in previous elections at the same point along the way as compared to those historic election results.

That tends to wash out the bias and uncertainty in the polls.

in Christ,

Bob

What I am most interested in is MN this year.It would be a stretch to say I think Romney will take MN but it is possible.

There seems to be an undercurrent that probably is not reflected in the polls.

Obama signs are few and far between as compared to four years ago.We have many military families in our area and what they are saying about Obama can't be repeated here.

Democrats running for election or re-election are going house to house and trying to distance themselves from Obama,the murder of american citizens and the storm.

They are a different democrat,or so they claim.What really has incensed people is his calls to Christy to see what he needed and total silence as our government watched without response to the murder of four people

[BobRyan]

I agree that you don't see the pro-Obama enthusiasm this time around that we saw last time.

And it is true that fast-and-furious and also the Benghazi blunders cost people their lives and are examples of government cover-up that is truly shocking. Even though they have the media's cooperation on this now - in a few years that same media will likely spill all the beans in true fare-weather-friend fashion. No honor among...

My prayer is that whatever the outcome - our country will be better positioned for reformation and revival - and hopefully the election will be decided in a landslide - whichever way it goes - so that there will be no chance of unrest.

in Christ,

Bob