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Why Ben Carson’s rapid surge in the polls should have you very, very worried

Even as Donald Trump continues to dominate the national polls, with the latest from PPP showing him holding on to a substantial national lead, another one of the Republican presidential candidates is finally starting to break away from the pack. And it’s not one of the mainstream political professionals, as everyone assumed it would be: Governor Scott Walker, Senator Marco Rubio, former Governor Jeb Bush are all mired in the single digits. Even Senator Ted Cruz, who is working the far right very hard, remains in the middle. No, the candidate who is suddenly nipping at Trump’s heels is the other non-politician in the race, Dr. Ben Carson. According to the same PPP poll, Trump is currently at 29 percent, with Carson the next most popular at 15 percent. And Carson has some very strong fundamentals:

 
 

Ben Carson is easily the most popular candidate in the field with a 68/14 favorability rating. The closest anyone else comes to that is Marco Rubio at 58/24. Carson is also the most frequent second choice of GOP voters at 13%. And he’s the only Republican who would win a head to head showdown with Trump, 49/43. Among candidates with meaningful support, only Mike Huckabee’s supporters would go to Trump in a head to head with Carson.

I wrote about Carson here last year, and noted his tremendous accomplishments as a pediatric neurosurgeon with a global reputation. Of the entire GOP field today — and it is a huge field — it’s fair to say that Ben Carson is the one candidate who has done something truly remarkable in his life prior to politics by dint of his own effort and extraordinary talent. (Yes Trump is a billionaire real estate mogul, but he was born into the business.)

There has been a lot of talk about why Trump is so popular, and the conventional wisdom at the moment is that it’s because voters are mad as hell and they are looking for an outsider to articulate their rage. Trump shakes his fist at the establishments of both parties and lays it all out on the line. This, it’s assumed, is the key to his success. Indeed, an entire beltway cottage industry has grown up around explaining the Trump phenomenon as an expression of America’s id.

Carson’s personality, on the other hand, is exactly the opposite of Trump’s. Where Trump is a bombastic narcissist, Carson is quiet and self-effacing. Where Trump rudely takes on all comers, Carson is polite and well-mannered. Trump is a street fighter, Carson a gentleman. So the fact that these two polar opposites are sitting at number one and two in the Republican primary polls right now must indicate that they represent two different strains in the GOP, right? If the histrionic Trump’s popularity is simply an inchoate expression of rage, then Carson’s support might be assumed to be based upon a yearning among other Republican voters for a more thoughtful, polite approach to politics.

But what if neither Trump nor Carson are popular because of their personalities? What if the beltway consensus that Trump’s success isn’t based upon issues or ideology is wrong and voters are actually attracted to his crazy ideas on the merits? The fact that Carson is closing on him certainly lends credibility to that possibility, because despite his mild-mannered persona, Carson’s ideas are even more extreme than Trump’s.

The two top contenders for the Republican nomination have nothing in common in terms of style, but among a very big field they are the two with the most radical agendas, and, as Salon’s Simon Maloy pointed out recently, a common disdain for what they term “political correctness.” As uncomfortable as it may be to think about, maybe Republican voters aren’t just looking for someone to express their rage. Maybe they really are extremists.

 
 

The PPP Poll had some very disturbing results in that regard:

Our new poll finds that Trump is benefiting from a GOP electorate that thinks Barack Obama is a Muslim and was born in another country, and that immigrant children should be deported. 66% of Trump’s supporters believe that Obama is a Muslim to just 12% that grant he’s a Christian. 61% think Obama was not born in the United States to only 21% who accept that he was. And 63% want to amend the Constitution to eliminate birthright citizenship, to only 20% who want to keep things the way they are.

Trump’s beliefs represent the consensus among the GOP electorate. 51% overall want to eliminate birthright citizenship. 54% think President Obama is a Muslim. And only 29% grant that President Obama was born in the United States. That’s less than the 40% who think Canadian born Ted Cruz was born in the United States.

Trump’s supporters aren’t alone in those attitudes though. Only among supporters of John Kasich (58/13), Jeb Bush (56/18), Chris Christie (59/33), and Marco Rubio (42/30) are there more people who think President Obama was born in the United States than that he wasn’t. And when you look at whose supporters are more inclined to think that the President is a Christian than a Muslim the list shrinks to just Christie (55/29), Kasich (41/22), and Bush (29/22).

I think everyone is familiar with Trump’s agenda. For starters he’s going to round up and deport all the undocumented immigrants, build a wall on the border with a beautiful door and make Mexico pay for it, start trade wars with China and Japan, and when it comes to ISIS he has said:

“They have great money because they have oil. Every place where they have oil I would knock the hell out of them. I would knock out the source of their wealth, the primary sources of their wealth, which is oil. And in order to do that, you would have to put boots on the ground. I would knock the hell out of them but I’d put a ring around it and I’d take the oil for our country.”

 

Carson’s ideas are no less out in right field: He would use drones on the border to blow up caves where he believes immigrants are hiding. He believes that Planned Parenthood was created to commit genocide on African Americans. He has said that Obamacare is the worst thing to happen since slavery. And he believes that prohibitions against torture and war crimes are P.C. foolishness:

“Our military needs to know that they’re not going be prosecuted when they come back, because somebody has said, ‘You did something that was politically incorrect. There is no such thing as a politically correct war. We need to grow up, we need to mature. If you’re gonna have rules for war, you should just have a rule that says no war. Other than that, we have to win. Our life depends on it.”

So, the two most popular candidates in the Republican race for president are as different as can be when in comes to personality and style. One is a monumental blowhard billionaire and the other is a diffident brain surgeon.  But it’s not the way Trump and Carson speak or the style with which they present themselves that has the base so dazzled. These voters agree with the substance of what these two are saying. And they are both certifiable extremists. Maybe it’s time for the political establishment to reconsider their view that this phenomenon doesn’t amount to anything more than a political tantrum and take these people seriously.==

 

http://www.salon.com/2015/09/02/why_ben_carsons_rapid_surge_in_the_polls_should_have_you_very_very_worried/

 

 

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  • Moderators
Posted

Today, Ben Carson is # 2, nationally, behind Trump!  Not what I expected when he first announced.

 

 

Gregory

Posted

Is there a website that CLEARLY puts the candidate's POSITIONS side-by-side?  I want to see the DIFFERENCE between Fiorina's positions, and Ben Carson's positions.  Etc. Etc.  

The Democrats elected the first black president.  I think the Republicans should elect the first woman president, or at least the first woman vice-president. 

8thdaypriest

  • Members
Posted

there are probably other good sites, but this one is pretty good...  Here's a side-by-side comparison of Carly Fiorina vs Ben Carson:

http://presidential-candidates.insidegov.com/compare/63-64/Carly-Fiorina-vs-Ben-Carson

(the side-by-side specific issue topics are about halfway down the page)

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Pam     coffeecomputer.GIF   

Meddle Not In the Affairs of Dragons; for You Are Crunchy and Taste Good with Ketchup.

If we all sang the same note in the choir, there'd never be any harmony.

Funny, isn't it, how we accept Grace for ourselves and demand justice for others?

Posted

Ben Carson is in the place he is the polls because of several reasons.  His positions are well thought out.  He's a genuine person.  He wants to return to a Constitutional government.  He sticks to issues and leaves out personal attacks. 

More than one reporter who dislikes him because of his political stances has had to report that in his personal appearances Carson has the "wow" factor with the people who attend his events. 

I, for one, am not the least bit surprised to see his popularity and his rise in the polls.  I think he would make a great president.  If he makes it out of the Republican primaries I will vote for him.  I cannot vote in the primaries for I am an independent or I would vote for him there too. 

Liberty cannot be established without morality, nor morality without faith.
Alexis de Tocqueville
  • Moderators
Posted

  I think he would make a great president.  If he makes it out of the Republican primaries I will vote for him.  I cannot vote in the primaries for I am an independent or I would vote for him there too. 

If you lived in California you could vote in any primary, regardless of party.    [Or at least I think that's the law here.   I may be wrong.]

Jeannie<br /><br /><br />...Change is inevitable; growth is optional....

Posted

I do not agree with a lot of what he has said, esp about the Health Care, and he is not a macro-economist, but am sure he could hire those, if he was president,  I do like his common sense answers.

 

I know several people in Biblical times became powerful leaders..  and they dealt with the Sabbath issue, etc

Getting more behind him than at the beginning.

 

right now I am at #WalkBenWalk

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Posted

If you lived in California you could vote in any primary, regardless of party.    [Or at least I think that's the law here.   I may be wrong.]

No offence to you, but I went to California one time.  That was back in the mid 70s when I worked construction and we had a project down there.  I never got any further south than the Napa Valley but that was enough for me.  Way too many people for me.  I'll take a small town and a sparse population over large population areas every time.  I would also have a very hard time getting along there now because of my politics. 

Liberty cannot be established without morality, nor morality without faith.
Alexis de Tocqueville
Posted

I do not agree with a lot of what he has said, esp about the Health Care, and he is not a macro-economist, but am sure he could hire those, if he was president,  I do like his common sense answers.

 

I know several people in Biblical times became powerful leaders..  and they dealt with the Sabbath issue, etc

Getting more behind him than at the beginning.

 

right now I am at #WalkBenWalk

I'd say that, as a physician, he understands the issues involved to a far greater extent than either you or I. 

I'm someone on Medicaid due to my disability.  I have to say that it supplies a poor level of medical care.  When I could choose any doctor I wanted I had much better medical care than I do under Obamacare/Medicaid.  There are far better ways to do things than under Obamacare for it is doing nothing but limiting services and increasing the costs for the majority of the population.  Insurance costs are going up an estimated 40% in 2016.  That means higher prices for policies and higher deductibles.  Just the opposite of the promises.

Here's a few reasons I say this.  It took months to get an MRI on my shoulder OK'ed.  I'm still waiting to have it done.  It took weeks to get a pain med OK'ed as the list of meds is so small and I'm allergic to every one on the approved list.  I would like to do much more physical therapy but cannot.  Obamacare does not pay for it.  It was 3 years from the time I was diagnosed with CHF to have any real tests done.  This is not what I call good health care.  

I have a lot of arthritis in my knees and hands.  The doctor just looks at me and shrugs her shoulders.  There's not much she is allowed to do under Obamacare.

 

Liberty cannot be established without morality, nor morality without faith.
Alexis de Tocqueville
Posted

Obamacares is a start, it will and should evolve... Every country that looks after their citizenship has had to evolve in health care.

The job of the government isn't to provide services.  It's to protect the natural rights of its citizens (their God-given liberty and rights) and to protect them from outside forces that would harm them.  It is also to provide an environment which favors no one group over another.  That is called The Rule of Law.  It should never punish those who work and earn so it can support those who do not.  That is the epitome of unfairness.  Nobody has a "right" to an income they do not earn.  The Bible tells us that, repeatedly.  

What we see under the system you support is people who are thrown in jail for exercising their rights under the Consititution.  Our Consititution says that there shall be no law that limits the right to the free expression of religion.  Yet we see people being thrown in jail for doing just that today.  Just because a person works for the government or owns a business doesn't mean they must give up their conscience.  That is pure fallacy.  That is what happened in Germany in the 1930's and 1940's. 

Liberty cannot be established without morality, nor morality without faith.
Alexis de Tocqueville
Posted

Even tough I may not agree with everything he says, I believe Dr. Ben Carson to be a man of kindness, decency, and integrity. While there are others seeking the Presidency that may have some of these attributes, there are also those who make their lack painfully evident.

  • Like 2

Behold what manner of love the Father hath given unto us.

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Posted

He's still gonna flame out well before the end of the primaries.

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Truth is important

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Posted
  • You're right, Bravus.   This is merely a temporary rise in popularity.  There's a long road to go before the primaries.  To say nothing of the general election.

Jeannie<br /><br /><br />...Change is inevitable; growth is optional....

Posted (edited)
 

 

He's still gonna flame out well before the end of the primaries.

I won't make predictions, but I think you may very well be quite surprised.  The people in the this country are starved for honesty and sick of being lied to by politicians.  In Ben Carson you have a man honest enough to admit to mistakes and to say he doesn't know everything.  People are very hungry for that, and even those who dislike his policies have to admit he is a high-character individual. 

He is a leader that people will follow, and he is a uniter, not a divider. 

Edited by joeb
Liberty cannot be established without morality, nor morality without faith.
Alexis de Tocqueville
Posted (edited)

A lot of people that can tell the future. 

Still waiting for Trump to crash and burn. 

Edited by bonnie

Everything you do is based on the choices you make. It's not your parents, your past relationships, your job, the economy, the weather, an argument, or your age that is to blame. You and only you are responsible for every decision and choice you make, period ... ... Wish more people would realize this.

Quotes by Susan Gottesman

Posted

If you lived in California you could vote in any primary, regardless of party.    [Or at least I think that's the law here.   I may be wrong.]

I doubt that very seriously.  Why do people not understand that Primaries are for the purpose of voting for the candidate of a particular party.?  A Republican should have no right to vote for who is to be the candidate for the Democratic Party and vice versa.  Nuff Sed

Posted

I doubt that very seriously.  Why do people not understand that Primaries are for the purpose of voting for the candidate of a particular party.?  A Republican should have no right to vote for who is to be the candidate for the Democratic Party and vice versa.  Nuff Sed

Hey nuff,

I think Jeannie is probably correct.  I've read that in some states it is legal to vote in any primary you want to vote in.  It don't make any sense to me and can cause very skewed results because it can set up situations where outsiders can determine the results of a primary for a party they oppose.  That is not a good thing as it is basically fraudulent.

Liberty cannot be established without morality, nor morality without faith.
Alexis de Tocqueville
Posted

Ben Carson is leading in the Republican straw poll just released in Maryland.  Carson has 31.9%.  Trump has 25.9%.  Carly Fiorina has 4.6%.  What that says is that the Republican base is rejecting politicians due to their dishonesty.  The outsiders are holding 62+% of the vote. 

There is a revolution under way.  This is going to be interesting to watch. 

http://www.wbaltv.com/politics/dr-ben-carson-leads-maryland-gop-straw-poll/35288004

Liberty cannot be established without morality, nor morality without faith.
Alexis de Tocqueville
Posted

  Carson has 31.9%.  Trump has 25.9%.  Carly Fiorina has 4.6%.  What that says is that the Republican base is rejecting politicians due to their dishonesty.  The outsiders are holding 62+% of the vote. 

 And you know this how? What poll has been done about the honesty of the politicians? Have you followed politics before.....to any extent...and the results of elections? Which person does the poll say is honest and which ones dishonest?

You make big statements, but where is the support for them?

Posted

The job of the government isn't to provide services.  It's to protect the natural rights of its citizens (their God-given liberty and rights) and to protect them from outside forces that would harm them. 

Again, you appeal to God for your authority, but with no proof. You seem to delight in throwing the Name of God around, but whose God are you talking about? Quite frankly, I see serious misuse of the Bible in your pronouncements of what God says.

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