bonnie Posted February 20, 2016 Posted February 20, 2016 US World News Trump Could Win It All A new survey shows a sizable number of Democrats ready to defect from Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump. Trump's the one? By James WarrenJan. 8, 2016, at 4:00 p.m.+ More So if Donald Trump proved the political universe wrong and won the Republican presidential nomination, he would be creamed by Hillary Clinton, correct? A new survey of likely voters might at least raise momentary dyspepsia for Democrats since it suggests why it wouldn't be a cakewalk. The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and "dial-test" of Trump's first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed "likely voters" (this video shows the ad and the dial test results). It took place primarily Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent. Nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they'd cross sides and vote for Trump, while a small number, or 14 percent, of Republicans claim they'd vote for Clinton. When those groups were further broken down, a far higher percentage of the crossover Democrats contend they are "100 percent sure" of switching than the Republicans. When the firmed showed respondents the Trump ad, and assessed their responses to each moment of it, it found "the primary messages of Trump's ad resonated more than Democratic elites would hope." About 25 percent of Democrats "agree completely" that it raises some good point, with an additional 19 percent agreeing at least "somewhat." Mercury CEO Ron Howard, a Democrat whose firm works for candidates in both parties and corporate clients, concedes, "We expected Trump's first campaign spot to strongly appeal to Republican Trump supporters, with little impact – or in fact negative impact – on Democratic or independent voters." He continues, "The challenge to Hillary, if Trump is the nominee and pivots to the center in the general election as a problem-solving, independent-minded, successful 'get it done' businessman is that Democrats will no longer be able to count on his personality and outrageous sound bites to disqualify him in the voters' minds." Trump's formidable challenges remain obvious and in no small measure reflect his general style. A total of 66 percent of Democrats are very concerned with it, as are 32 percent of Republicans and 41 percent of independents, according to the survey. Further, 65 percent of Democrats said that the "prestige" of the country would be hurt by his election, as did 19 percent and 29 percent of Republicans and independents, respectively. But what if Trump lowered the bombast in a general election? Quote Everything you do is based on the choices you make. It's not your parents, your past relationships, your job, the economy, the weather, an argument, or your age that is to blame. You and only you are responsible for every decision and choice you make, period ... ... Wish more people would realize this. Quotes by Susan Gottesman
Members phkrause Posted February 20, 2016 Members Posted February 20, 2016 My thought has always been that deep down, the Donald is a Democrat!! The reason he's running as a Republican, is because he probably thought he couldn't become the front runner as a demo, but as a repub, he figured he could beat all the candidates!! Just my opinion and thought! 8thdaypriest and Aliensanctuary 2 Quote phkrause When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
JoeMo Posted February 20, 2016 Posted February 20, 2016 IMHO, there is a reasonable chance that "We the People" will not choose who the presidential candidates will be. It is reasonably possible that no candidates from either party will have a majority of delegate votes. If a candidate does not garner a majority of votes on the first ballot, delegates will be released from their state obligations and be free to vote as they see fit. I also see a reasonable possibility that Hillary will be indicted at a critical time that will disqualify her as a candidate. It's still a free-for-all. Quote
Members phkrause Posted February 20, 2016 Members Posted February 20, 2016 34 minutes ago, JoeMo said: I also see a reasonable possibility that Hillary will be indicted at a critical time that will disqualify her as a candidate. It's still a free-for-all. Maybe and than maybe not. I believe I heard of two other Sec of States that did the same! Powell and Rice, but am not positive. If true, obviously the demos didn't think it matter, But since Hill is running and the repubs figure they couldn't beat her, they went after her. Again I'm not positive about the other two. Quote phkrause When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
8thdaypriest Posted February 20, 2016 Posted February 20, 2016 If Donald T. does not win the nomination, he will run as a third party candidate, guaranteeing the presidency for the Democrat. He has already hinted at doing just THAT. Quote 8thdaypriest
bonnie Posted February 20, 2016 Author Posted February 20, 2016 We ended up with a clown for a governor with that same thought. He ran as a independent which delighted the democrats and disturbed the republicans for the same reason. All that has been said concerning the improbability of a Trump nomination or presidential win was repeated over and over. Very little campaign money and the media gave him all the coverage needed. The more they ridiculed the more popular he seemed to get. Right up till election night. Then it was like everyone was in a state of shock. Personally I can't imagine Hilary Clinton would be indicted for anything. Choices don't look to be good this election year. Personally I would rather vote for a potted plant than Sanders of Clinton. Trump may be a half step above,vocalising what many feel about the immigration mess Quote Everything you do is based on the choices you make. It's not your parents, your past relationships, your job, the economy, the weather, an argument, or your age that is to blame. You and only you are responsible for every decision and choice you make, period ... ... Wish more people would realize this. Quotes by Susan Gottesman
Moderators Bravus Posted February 21, 2016 Moderators Posted February 21, 2016 As of right now, SC is Trump 34, Cruz 21, Rubio 21. The rest are on about 8, and Jeb! has just withdrawn. Once Rubio or Cruz is gone, there are enough votes elsewhere that will accrue to them to beat Trump... assuming they don't go to Trump instead. I think, rather than Democrat votes going to Trump, the danger is that the Bernie/HIllary supporters spats have become so vicious that many of the supporters of the non-nominee are likely to stay home on election day. Quote Truth is important
bonnie Posted February 21, 2016 Author Posted February 21, 2016 Assuming they wont go to Trump is not a safe assumption. Nor is the assurance that a number of democrats won't vote for Trump Quote Everything you do is based on the choices you make. It's not your parents, your past relationships, your job, the economy, the weather, an argument, or your age that is to blame. You and only you are responsible for every decision and choice you make, period ... ... Wish more people would realize this. Quotes by Susan Gottesman
Moderators Bravus Posted February 21, 2016 Moderators Posted February 21, 2016 You may well be right. It's an empirical question: by November we'll know. Quote Truth is important
bonnie Posted February 21, 2016 Author Posted February 21, 2016 Democrats should fear the depths of Donald Trump’s support By Jonathan Capehart December 21, 2015 Donald Trump speaks at rally in Iowa on Dec. 19. (Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press) A word of caution to those Democrats, particularly those supporting Hillary Clinton, openly rooting for Donald Trump to win the Republican presidential nomination. Yes, his campaign has been six months of ugly, gasp-worthy rhetoric that should make the Republican Party a no-go zone for a majority of the American electorate on Election Day 2016. But folks like it. And that is reason to worry. What if Michael Smerconish was right? What if Trump’s numbers are really higher than the polls show because folks are lying to pollsters? What if a Trump vs. Clinton race isn’t a slam dunk for the latter as everyone thinks? Thanks to a study conducted by Kyle Dropp, co-founder and executive director of polling and data science at Morning Consult, we have the frightening answer. Smerconish WAS right! [‘Defining deviancy down’ in presidential politics] Dropp interviewed 2,397 registered Republicans and GOP-leaning independents. All the participants started taking part in the survey online. Then things got interesting. While a third of them did the entire survey online, one third answered questions asked by a live person on the phone and the remaining third finished the poll with an automated voice. The result? “The study finds that Trump performs about six percentage points better online [38 percent] than via live telephone interviewing [32 percent],” writes Dropp, “and that his advantage online is driven by adults with higher levels of education.” That means Trump’s increased support is coming from better educated and wealthier people who appear to be embarrassed to have another living soul know they support Trump. Dropp explains that this is due “in part to ‘social desirability bias,’ in which respondents answer questions in a manner they believe will be viewed favorably by others.” In other words, people are more inclined not to tell the truth to a pollster if they believe it will make them look bad. This has become known as the Bradley Effect. Tom Bradley was the African American mayor of Los Angeles who ran for governor of California in 1982. He was leading in the polls right up to Election Day, but lost narrowly once actual ballots were counted. Then, folks didn’t want to be viewed as racist. Now, folks appear to not want to be viewed as supporting a racist. [Time to take our country back — from Donald Trump] What Donald Trump is doing and saying as a presidential candidate is not who we are as a country, says The Post's Jonathan Capehart. (Tom LeGro/The Washington Post) The caution here is that Trump’s support is deeper than we want to admit. And if we’re really being honest, we know his support doesn’t just reside within the Republican Party. Thus, Trump’s “I really don’t give a damn” mien could prove dangerous to a Clinton campaign that prizes control. No, I do not think Trump will move into the Oval Office. This nation elects presidents of the United States whose campaigns are big tents that reach out to as many voters, different people, as possible. Trump’s campaign is a wall. But there are more people on his side of it than we’d like to admit. Follow Jonathan on Twitter: @Capehartj Quote Everything you do is based on the choices you make. It's not your parents, your past relationships, your job, the economy, the weather, an argument, or your age that is to blame. You and only you are responsible for every decision and choice you make, period ... ... Wish more people would realize this. Quotes by Susan Gottesman
Aliensanctuary Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 If either Trump or Hillary become the next president, I may have to relocate to New Zealand or Australia and renounce my USA citizenship. Canada has too cold of a climate for me to enjoy living there. I think that maybe either Cruz or Rubio might be a better choice than such an obnoxious man as Donald "the Duck" Trump or a congenital liar such as Hillary "Lying Lips" Clinton. Quote The Parable of the Lamb and the Pigpen https://www.createspace.com/3401451
Aliensanctuary Posted February 28, 2016 Posted February 28, 2016 I wonder if Trump suffers from Affluenza and doesn't really care about the "little guy". Quote The Parable of the Lamb and the Pigpen https://www.createspace.com/3401451
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