Atoday Aunt Sevvy strikes again

[RonCorson]

Back in the early days of Saturday Night Live they did a take on the 60 minutes segment called point/ counter point.  One of the catch phrases for these skits between Dan Akroyd and Jane Curtin. Was Dan Akroyd beginning his counterpoint by saying “Jane, you ignorant [censored]! That is kind of the way I think of the Adventist Today Dear Aunt Sevvy column. Words of questionable wisdom from an anonymous possibly female or not.

In his/her column for October 25 2021 we learn from this ignorant writer that:

 

“Yes, healthy people are better able to fight off infections. But it’s been proven repeatedly that viruses are equal opportunity infectors. They do not care if you’re vegan, or if you eat nothing but pork hot-dogs for every meal. If you are unvaccinated you have a 1 in 8 chance of getting sick from Covid, and a 1 in 61 chance of dying. If you are fully vaccinated, you have a 1 in 13,402 chance of getting sick, and a 1 in 86,000 chance of dying from Covid. “ 

 

Do you believe that? Where is the source for this startling data? None given, a 1 in 61 chance of dying, really. We went through a year of Covid and we had no vaccine.  Did 1 in 61 people die from Covid19? Of course the answer is no. To even come up with the 1 in 61 chance we would have to start at a bit above 70 years of age. I am not going to deal with the other odds given, it is highly doubtful that they are any more accurate, however.

Let's look at what the actual science says. Before we look at the chart let us see what they say about that second Aunty sentence, that viruses are equal opportunity infectors. It is important because as the chart shows there is no equal death rates by age and sex. As you will note below the virus discriminates. Starting in the 20-24 age group men are about twice as likely to die as women.

One more thing to point out. 1 in 61 odds comes to (0.0161) or 1.6129% On the chart we do not see that level of deaths until the 70-74 age range (mean between sexes).  From the American Council on Science and Health explanation connected to the chart

 

“There are several observations worth noting. First, as we have long known, people of college age and younger are very unlikely to die. The 5-9 and 10-14 age groups are the least likely to die. (Note that an IFR of 0.001% means that one person in that age group will die for every 100,000 infected.) The 0-4 and 15-19 age groups are three times likelier to die than the 5-9 and 10-14 age groups, but the risk is still exceedingly small at 0.003% (or 3 deaths for every 100,000 infected).

Second, the IFR slowly increases with age through the 60-64 age group. But after that, beginning with the 65-69 age group, the IFR rises sharply. This group has an overall IFR just over 1% (or 1 death for every 100 infected). That's a fairly major risk of death. (The red line in the chart marks where the "1% threshold" is crossed.) The IFR then grows substantially and becomes quite scary for people in their 70s and older. People in the 75-79 age group have more than a 3% chance of dying if infected with coronavirus, while people aged 80 and over have more than an 8% chance of dying. That's roughly the same chance as rolling a four with two dice.

Third, the virus discriminates. Beginning with the 20-24 age group, men are about twice as likely to die as women from COVID. This pattern remains in each age group through 80+.

With this data, let's hope that public health officials and policymakers can craft smart guidelines in regard to what parts of society should be locked down and how vaccines should be allocated.

Source: O’Driscoll, M. et al. "Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2." Nature. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2918-0 (2020).”

 

 

Don’t think that it is only science that Aunty knows nothing about he/she knows nothing about law either. The Adventist Today column includes this: 

 

There always seems to be a cry of persecution when a government makes a decision that everyone needs to participate in something for public safety. In 1969 when the government decided that everyone needed to wear a seatbelt there were people who said, “If I want to die in a car accident, I should be allowed to make that choice!”

 No, the Federal Seatbelt assembly law was not that everyone needed to wear seatbelts, it was about adding the assembly to cars and it was 1968.

 

49 CFR § 571.209 - Standard No. 209; Seat belt assemblies.

§ 571.209 Standard No. 209; Seat belt assemblies.

S1. Purpose and scope. This standard specifies requirements for seat belt assemblies.

S2. Application. This standard applies to seat belt assemblies for use in passenger cars, multipurpose passenger vehicles, trucks, and buses. 

 

Since the law was about seatbelt assemblies it is highly doubtful that there was even one person whose response was “If I want to die in a car accident, I should be allowed to make that choice!”

 After about 25 years of ads to wear seatbelts the first actual wearing of seatbelts law was in 1984 in New York state

 

 

 

 

[bonnie]

27 minutes ago, RonCorson said:

Back in the early days of Saturday Night Live they did a take on the 60 minutes segment called point/ counter point.  One of the catch phrases for these skits between Dan Akroyd and Jane Curtin. Was Dan Akroyd beginning his counterpoint by saying “Jane, you ignorant [censored]! That is kind of the way I think of the Adventist Today Dear Aunt Sevvy column. Words of questionable wisdom from an anonymous possibly female or not.

In his/her column for October 25 2021 we learn from this ignorant writer that:

 

“Yes, healthy people are better able to fight off infections. But it’s been proven repeatedly that viruses are equal opportunity infectors. They do not care if you’re vegan, or if you eat nothing but pork hot-dogs for every meal. If you are unvaccinated you have a 1 in 8 chance of getting sick from Covid, and a 1 in 61 chance of dying. If you are fully vaccinated, you have a 1 in 13,402 chance of getting sick, and a 1 in 86,000 chance of dying from Covid. “ 

 

Do you believe that? Where is the source for this startling data? 

 

 

 

 

 

With all the hysteria over the unvaccinated killing their neighbors I haven't heard anyone explain why the death toll is higher in 2021 than last year. According to the Review even some in the denomination want to guilt those they can. The hospitals and Dr's know so much more about covid now so why are so many more dying?

Would be curious to know among those opposed to the vaccine if they finally decided to get it so their neighbor didnt get sick.  Now it is three shots and those compromised can get a 4th.

[RonCorson]

11 hours ago, bonnie said:

I haven't heard anyone explain why the death toll is higher in 2021 than last year.

No, they don't talk about it. It is likely because the Delta variant is more easily spreadable. They had originally said it was easier to get but milder in effect. Apparently that was not the case for the oldsters who are most effected by Covid. Of course since Biden blamed Trump for the deaths I guess we could blame Biden now. If we did not have, you know, morals and standards and like truth. But that is likely the reason they don't talk about it as corporate media tries very hard to protect Biden and so they don't want to talk about how more people have died and that they were incorrect in their assessment of the delta variant. 

[Morwenna]

I think the reason more people have died from it this year is because more people have caught it. 

For example, in my household, zero people caught COVID in 2020. Zero people in my house were vaccinated against COVID.  Zero people (out of 4) died from COVID in my house in 2020.

Yet, in 2021, four people in my house caught COVID. Seventy-five percent of my household were vaccinated fully against COVID. Twenty-five percent were not vaccinated because of a medical condition preventing vaccination. Of the people in my household, 100% were infected with COVID. A full 25% of those infected in my household died of COVID. 

Statistically, in my house, that's a 100% increase of infection rates and a 25% increase in death rates when comparing data from 2021 to 2020.

 

 

[bonnie]

21 minutes ago, Morwenna said:

I think the reason more people have died from it this year is because more people have caught it. 

For example, in my household, zero people caught COVID in 2020. Zero people in my house were vaccinated against COVID.  Zero people (out of 4) died from COVID in my house in 2020.

Yet, in 2021, four people in my house caught COVID. Seventy-five percent of my household were vaccinated fully against COVID. Twenty-five percent were not vaccinated because of a medical condition preventing vaccination. Of the people in my household, 100% were infected with COVID. A full 25% of those infected in my household died of COVID. 

Statistically, in my house, that's a 100% increase of infection rates and a 25% increase in death rates when comparing data from 2021 to 2020.

 

 

Most I know that have not been vaccinated are not so concern with the immediate, dropping dead on receiving the shot. They are concerned tho with long term side effects, something that you nor anyone else has the ability at this point to predict.

Because of my husband's health there really wasn't a whole lot of debate. His risk is immediate and very likely fatal.  The risk of Myocarditis and blood clots is enough to prevent some from taking the risk, no matter how small . When long standing approved medications are recalled after many years of approval by FDA it does give  credibility to those refusing the vaccine. Zantac has been recalled after many years because of a link to cancer. Wonder how many people wish they had been a little slower to simply accept what the FDA and Dr told them concerning Zantac? Just recently another approved drug, Chantix has been taken of the market, after being considered safe for over a decade.

There has been enough misinformation to fuel more and more skepticism . Makes the misinformation from the unvaxxers more plausible to many.

Very wary of statistics

My husband was seeing a new specialist. After extensive tests the Dr prescribed a new to us drug. He left the room for a bit and I read the warnings/statistics, especially the last paragraph. When he came back I asked him some questions about the drug, and he was pretty dismissive.

When I asked him if he and I were scheduled on the same flight, 200 passengers and 199 would be alive at our destination and he read the last paragraph would he get on the plane with me? He didnt answer just dismissed me. When I obtained the medical records imagine my surprise to find I was a "hysterical housewife

[RonCorson]

2 hours ago, Morwenna said:

Statistically, in my house, that's a 100% increase of infection rates and a 25% increase in death rates when comparing data from 2021 to 2020.

A good example of why statistics are pretty useless without a large enough database

[B/W Photodude]

13 hours ago, Morwenna said:

Statistically, in my house, that's a 100% increase of infection rates and a 25% increase in death rates when comparing data from 2021 to 2020.

You gotta be careful when calculating numbers that include zeroes. An increase to any number from zero becomes infinitely incalculable. So, even calculating the percent increase from 0 to 1 is an infinite number.

[Gregory Matthews]

Bonnie:

*  In my opinion, you did not receive good clinical care from that specialist.

*  For 20 years I worked in a VA teaching hospital.  For 18 of those years I served on the hospital Ethics Committee (EC).  We taught our residents that they gave the best clinical care when the patient and family was deeply involved.  As a member of the EC, we would recommend the replacement of a physician if the doctor was dismissive of either the patient or the family.

*  As to my personal clinical care, the physicians that treat me know that I will not take a medication if they can not convince me of its need and value.  In a recent case, a specialist prescribed 1/2 of the normal dose due to my objections.  After taking some of it I decided that I did not want to take any more so I asked him if I could stop taking it without harm.  (Some medications must be slowly stopped over a period of time.)  He agreed.  I stopped taking it.  He cancelled my prescription.  But, he continues to see me. I value his care, in part because he does not dismiss me and he adjusts his care to my wishes.

*  I do not agree with the decisions that some people make as to their clinical care.  But, I support their right to make those decisions.

 

[bonnie]

42 minutes ago, Gregory Matthews said:

Bonnie:

*  In my opinion, you did not receive good clinical care from that specialist.

*  For 20 years I worked in a VA teaching hospital.  For 18 of those years I served on the hospital Ethics Committee (EC).  We taught our residents that they gave the best clinical care when the patient and family was deeply involved.  As a member of the EC, we would recommend the replacement of a physician if the doctor was dismissive of either the patient or the family.

*  As to my personal clinical care, the physicians that treat me know that I will not take a medication if they can not convince me of its need and value.  In a recent case, a specialist prescribed 1/2 of the normal dose due to my objections.  After taking some of it I decided that I did not want to take any more so I asked him if I could stop taking it without harm.  (Some medications must be slowly stopped over a period of time.)  He agreed.  I stopped taking it.  He cancelled my prescription.  But, he continues to see me. I value his care, in part because he does not dismiss me and he adjusts his care to my wishes.

*  I do not agree with the decisions that some people make as to their clinical care.  But, I support their right to make those decisions.

 

I can assure you we did not continue with him. I requested the test results and it was our first and last appt. We have had what  I think is the best care and then a few that expect you to genuflect when they walk in.  

I dont blame those opposed to the vaccine as callous people causing the death of their neighbors.With the lack of clarity and the outright misinforrmation and lies how do you come to a informed decision .Coming from the side that is supposed to have only the safety and welfare of the US it is not very reassuring

 

The first time a Dr told me to take a medication to protect my neighbor especially one I was hesitant about would be the last time he had anything to say to me. Seems from the Review article the denomination is on board,as are a lot of our members. Personally the behaviour of the so called experts, the lies and misinformation, even the denomination climbing onboard is not very comforting. When you misrepresent something,lie about it, or guilt trip people into accepting something, chances are good not all is as being presented

 

[Gustave]

I know of 7 people within my circle of family / co-workers who were / are break-through cases. This number seems higher than it should be considering the percentage chance a fully vaccinated person is said to have in contracting Covid19. The other thing I find disturbing is that I know of two people who apparently died from getting the shot and know no one who died from Covid19 infection. There is no doubt the Govt. has misrepresented the severity of the virus. 

[bonnie]

35 minutes ago, Gustave said:

I know of 7 people within my circle of family / co-workers who were / are break-through cases. This number seems higher than it should be considering the percentage chance a fully vaccinated person is said to have in contracting Covid19. The other thing I find disturbing is that I know of two people who apparently died from getting the shot and know no one who died from Covid19 infection. There is no doubt the Govt. has misrepresented the severity of the virus. 

I think it is a serious illness but over the years we have had many serious illnesses without shutting down most of the country.

When the hysteria starts they lose a lot of credibility. The media certainly has not fostered any faith in what they or the government says. How interesting to find out thru those like Dr Fauci we probably paid for our own illness and death.  Anyone, private citizen, government, church that says Oh but do it for your neighbor, isn"t working with to  many brain cells. What makes anyone think that those that feel they have valid reasons for refusing the vaccines are going to say, You know I think it is the wrong thing to do, but I am going to so I can protect my neighbor.

Now a 4th shot is being recommended for those with health issues. How many more,once a month ?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Morwenna]

On 10/28/2021 at 11:43 PM, B/W Photodude said:

You gotta be careful when calculating numbers that include zeroes. An increase to any number from zero becomes infinitely incalculable. So, even calculating the percent increase from 0 to 1 is an infinite number.

Fair enough, but I think you catch the point, regardless. A family of 4 alive in 2020. Down to 3 in 2021. Covid killed one of us. However you want to represent it in numbers, the fact remains that it's sometimes deadly and more people have contracted the virus this year than last year. 

[Gustave]

36 minutes ago, bonnie said:

I think it is a serious illness but over the years we have had many serious illnesses without shutting down most of the country.

When the hysteria starts they lose a lot of credibility. The media certainly has not fostered any faith in what they or the government says. How interesting to find out thru those like Dr Fauci we probably paid for our own illness and death.  Anyone, private citizen, government, church that says Oh but do it for your neighbor, isn"t working with to  many brain cells. What makes anyone think that those that feel they have valid reasons for refusing the vaccines are going to say, You know I think it is the wrong thing to do, but I am going to so I can protect my neighbor.

Now a 4th shot is being recommended for those with health issues. How many more,once a month ?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I would agree with you here, this is more political than anything else. 

I'm a believer in modern medicine as well as natural remedies. I opted to be fully vaccinated but don't believe people at this time should be forced to do it. After some more science and facts can be established I can't say I wouldn't be opposed to mandatory vaccination. I'm of the opinion that society comes with some baggage that's necessary and that if one chooses to live in and reap the benefits of living in society part of the payment is compliance for the greater good. The more the virus jumps around the more it will mutate into different variants.   In my personal circle I know scores of people that contracted covid19, some within my own family and the only folks I know of within my circle who died, died after getting vaccinated due to heart attack, neither had heart disease, were younger than me and healthy.  

 

[RonCorson]

28 minutes ago, Gustave said:

After some more science and facts can be established I can't say I wouldn't be opposed to mandatory vaccination.

I don't know that I would ever go for a mandatory vaccinations. We have never really done that before. We have a long history of vaccinations, always with exceptions granted and those really mainly be in schools. This having companies firing people for not be vaccinated against covid is something very new and very wrong. That there is one political party behind it should be a wake up call to all America There is some good news that Americans are waking up.

https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/chuck-todd-forced-to-reveal-latest-biden-polling-and-its-bad-really-bad/?fbclid=IwAR0v3h63OJhuuBh1sf4GvClwEWJ-GqECtlvJm9GjhoaeYypRwKb5rUhxZHE

[Gustave]

6 hours ago, RonCorson said:

I don't know that I would ever go for a mandatory vaccinations. We have never really done that before. We have a long history of vaccinations, always with exceptions granted and those really mainly be in schools. This having companies firing people for not be vaccinated against covid is something very new and very wrong. That there is one political party behind it should be a wake up call to all America There is some good news that Americans are waking up.

https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/chuck-todd-forced-to-reveal-latest-biden-polling-and-its-bad-really-bad/?fbclid=IwAR0v3h63OJhuuBh1sf4GvClwEWJ-GqECtlvJm9GjhoaeYypRwKb5rUhxZHE

Folks can seek an exemption on religious or other grounds - I don't believe anyone should loose their job over something like this - yet. There is zero doubt the Democrat party is leveraging every political advantage they can out of this situation. Perhaps I'm wrong but isn't there more individuals who opted out of Covid19 vaccinations here in the U.S. than traditionally there would be others who opted out? 

I'll come right out and say it - I'm a CONSERVATIVE LIBERAL or should I say Liberal Conservative. I believe marriage is between one biological man and one biological woman. I voted for legalized weed even though I'm not a pot smoker. I think this thread may get political soon so I'm laying my cards out on the table. 

[Gustave]

7 hours ago, bonnie said:

I think it is a serious illness but over the years we have had many serious illnesses without shutting down most of the country.

When the hysteria starts they lose a lot of credibility. The media certainly has not fostered any faith in what they or the government says. How interesting to find out thru those like Dr Fauci we probably paid for our own illness and death.  Anyone, private citizen, government, church that says Oh but do it for your neighbor, isn"t working with to  many brain cells. What makes anyone think that those that feel they have valid reasons for refusing the vaccines are going to say, You know I think it is the wrong thing to do, but I am going to so I can protect my neighbor.

Now a 4th shot is being recommended for those with health issues. How many more,once a month ?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I hear what you're saying - and agree with most all of it. For some reason this particular vaccine has things never before imagined attributed to it. I've heard it's got: Nanobots in it, Parasites in it, stuff that will change your DNA, time lapsed diseases in it, part of the tools Lucifer is using to prepare people to accept a Sunday Law (heard that from an SDA). I don't recall stuff like this being part of prior vaccinations. 

I guess my problem is with how many people are reacting to Covid19 Vaccinations as if they are an "envenomation" . No doubt that we should study all this stuff out long before even contemplating to make it mandatory. 

 

[bonnie]

2 hours ago, Gustave said:

I hear what you're saying - and agree with most all of it. For some reason this particular vaccine has things never before imagined attributed to it. I've heard it's got: Nanobots in it, Parasites in it, stuff that will change your DNA, time lapsed diseases in it, part of the tools Lucifer is using to prepare people to accept a Sunday Law (heard that from an SDA). I don't recall stuff like this being part of prior vaccinations. 

I guess my problem is with how many people are reacting to Covid19 Vaccinations as if they are an "envenomation" . No doubt that we should study all this stuff out long before even contemplating to make it mandatory. 

 

I think if this virus hit under the watch of another president the reaction would have been much different. I do not believe we would have had the vaccine yet if it had not been for Trump bulldozing this thru. The virus itself I think was seen as a blessing in disguise to the democratic party and it has been used and abused since "for the good of the country".  

Biden carries on about the unvaccinated Wonder if he recalls when he said "when he Trump talks about the vaccine it is not particularly rational" "Nancy Pelosi and her rant about enjoying the Chinese New Year" and a couple of others. The whining about discrimination when Trump shut travel down. All of that left it's mark and we had this new president that was supposed to define transparency in government. Throw in the new star, Dr Fauci and his five minutes of fame every day I don't think it is that surprising. 

Had at least the media stepped up and used the same energy with investigating the claims/ false claims as they did Trump, the picture would have looked a lot different. Everything negative that could be even remotely concerned Trump, they almost foamed at the mouth in delight. I can remember two days devoted to Melanie's shoes(negative) of course. Anything positive, remotely and falsely attributed to Biden became almost gospel. 

I do not believe one word coming from the mouth of this admin or any that back the idiocy and the damage being done at the border and in the US. You cannot honestly keep pushing "vaccine for everyone or else" and then let thousands  and thousands cross the border without vaccinations and disperse them throughout the US.. It is either a complete lie, idiocy or both.

Yet they have so many duped in the general population ,I think they actually believe the sanctimonious "Do It For Your Neighbor" chant. If I do not believe in it for my family and take a stand, why on earth is anyone dumb enough to think I will set that aside? Protect my neighbor with something I am afraid for my family to take? 

 part of the tools Lucifer is using to prepare people to accept a Sunday Law (heard that from an SDA). I don't recall stuff like this being part of prior vaccinations. 

That doesn"t surprise me. Where this will lead I have no idea but it is about power and control and force.  I don't think any of us can say what shape that will take, but it will affect all of us in ways we were not expecting. I think those that believe when the government says " I am from the government and am here to help, are in for a very unpleasant surprise" yet they cannot wait to follow this piper down the road

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[GHansen]

9 minutes ago, bonnie said:

 

deleted

[bonnie]

6 minutes ago, GHansen said:

I heard recently that in some border crosser cohorts, Covid positivity is as high as 30%. Anyone have any actual data on this?

• 18%-20% of illegal immigrants coming into US have COVID-19 ...

  https://americanmilitarynews.com/2021/08/18-20-of...

  August 09, 2021 Liz George. Over 20 percent of illegal immigrant unaccompanied minors and 18 percent of family units who recently crossed the U.S.-Mexico border have tested positive for COVID-19 prior to being released from U.S. Customs and Border Protection custody over the last several weeks, according to a Department of Homeland Security document prepared for President Joe Biden and reviewed by …

• 18 percent of migrant families leaving Border Patrol ...

  https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/18...

  By Julia Ainsley. WASHINGTON — More than 18 percent of migrant families and 20 percent of unaccompanied minors who recently crossed the U.S. border …

   

   

  Or you can believe this

   

  What's False

  Migrants are not behind the surge in COVID-19 cases across the country. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) says it provides personal protective equipment and masks, and also send migrants to local health facilities for testing, diagnosis, and treatment. ICE statistics and policies governing their interactions with partner agencies also show they conduct testing of migrants at high risk of COVID-19. ICE has also begun vaccinating immigrants held in detention, although the implementation is reportedly inadequate.

  What's Undetermined

  It is difficult to determine the exact numbers of migrants released without COVID-19 tests or vaccinations.