The Economy

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America In Focus: inflation accelerated in August, home sales weaken and diesel prices soar

The economy, inflation and how those forces could impact the lives of Americans were front and center over the past week. Trips to the grocery store and gas station are more painful than they were last year, and rising costs are impacting the decisions of both households and businesses. Read More.

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💰 America's borrowing binge

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Americans are facing a rising tab as a multi-decade borrowing binge collides with a spike in energy prices caused by the Iran war. Long-term interest rates are surging, as are consumer prices. It's a toxic mix of near-term inflation pressures and years of fiscal imbalance, Axios' Neil Irwin reports. 📈 Driving the news: The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.97% Friday, up a full percentage point since the end of February, and only a hair below its high since 2007. That rate helps set borrowing costs across the economy, from business loans to mortgages. The rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has risen in lockstep, reaching 7.08% Friday, per Mortgage News Daily — the highest in more than a year. Gasoline is now at a national average of $4.31 a gallon, while diesel has climbed to over $6 a gallon. 👀 All this means the Fed is now expected to raise its target interest rate this week, but longer-term borrowing rates are set in global markets — and determined by bigger forces. Read on.

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🍽️ 1 for the road: America's best tippers

Data: Toast. Map: Sami Sparber/Axios Delaware, West Virginia and New Hampshire are home to America's top tippers, with diners leaving around 21% on average, according to new Toast data shared first with Axios' Sami Sparber. Why it matters: "Tip fatigue" is fueling a broader rethink of tipping culture, even as average tips haven't changed much over the past two years. 🧮 By the numbers: Nationwide, diners tipped roughly 19% on average across all restaurant types in Q2 2026. At the bottom: California, D.C. and Washington state, where averages run under 18%. Keep reading.

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📈 Charted: America's income record

Data: Census Bureau. Chart: Russell Contreras/Axios U.S. household income hit a record in 2025, Axios' Russell Contreras writes from new census data. Inflation-adjusted household income rose 2.6% to $87,460 in 2025, the highest since records began in 1967. The official poverty rate fell for a third straight year, dropping slightly to 10.2%. 👓 Between the lines: The economy delivered historic topline numbers, but the gains weren't spread evenly. Income among the wealthiest 10% of Americans rose 1.7%, while income among the bottom 10% showed no significant change.

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💰 CEO confidence hits 4-year high

New this morning: CEO economic confidence is the highest since 2022, with that optimism now spilling into plans to hire more workers, Axios Macro authors Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin write. The Business Roundtable's CEO Economic Outlook Index climbed 3 points in the third quarter, to 94 — the fifth consecutive increase and well above the historical average of 83. The index has climbed steadily from a five-year low after President Trump's "liberation day" tariffs early last year. Explore the data ... Keep reading.

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What you need to know about immigrant workers and the economy

203,000 immigrants reside in Alabama, comprising 4% of the total population in the state. That’s nearly 1 out of every 20 Alabamans. 40% of immigrants in Alabama are naturalized citizens. 114,000 U.S.-born Alabamans live with at least one immigrant parent, accounting for 2.3% of the total U.S.-born resident population in the state.

https://www.epi.org/what-you-need-to-know-about-immigrant-workers/?

No Multipliers: MVPC Fails to Spur Local Economy

Moshannon Valley Processing Center opened in 2006 after an extended controversy around having a for-profit prison in Clearfield County. The prison closed in March 2021 and then re-opened as a detention center for immigrants, amidst a new controversy, in September 2021. The five-year contract with Immigration and Customs Enforcement is currently being considered for renewal or reconsideration.

https://immresearch.org/reports/no-multipliers-mvpc-fails-to-spur-local-economy/?

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Wage suppression in 10 charts

Wages for typical workers have been largely suppressed since the 1970s. The 10 charts below tell that story.

https://www.epi.org/publication/wage-suppression-in-10-charts/?

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CEO pay surged in 2025

Our latest analysis finds that CEO pay rose 14.0% at the top 350 U.S. firms in 2025 as the CEO-to-worker pay ratio hit 325-to-1.

https://www.epi.org/blog/ceo-pay-surged-in-2025-ceos-are-paid-325-times-as-much-as-the-typical-worker/?

Wage suppression in 10 charts

Wages for typical workers have been largely suppressed since the 1970s. The 10 charts below tell that story.

https://www.epi.org/publication/wage-suppression-in-10-charts/?

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💰 It's a 5% world

Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios

The cost of borrowing money is moving unrelentingly higher, with profound implications for savers, borrowers and the U.S. government's fiscal outlook, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes. The bond market moves over the last few weeks have pushed most risk-free interest rates north of 5%. Barring a rapid reversal, expect pain in interest-sensitive sectors like housing, new stress on government finances and greater risks of financial disruption. 🔭 Zoom out: It's clearer than ever that the era of cheap borrowing and abundant capital that lasted from 2008 to 2021 is well and truly over. Anyone looking for a home mortgage or car loan is competing with the voracious capital needs of the AI giants and the U.S. government. State of play: The recent surge in longer-term rates is poised to push 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to near 8%. Mortgage rates got that high briefly in the fall of 2023. But the last time they were above that level on a sustained basis was in 2000. Read on.

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US economy grew a solid 2.2% in the second quarter, government says, upgrading previous estimate

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy grew at a solid 2.2% pace from April through June as consumer spending and business investment came in strong.

https://apnews.com/article/economic-growth-inflation-trump-trade-b759367e9e6149fe145652cc95887aa0?

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US hiring slows and unemployment ticks higher with a month remaining before Americans head to polls

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. employers added a disappointing 29,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked up last month, the government reported Friday, a month before voters go to the polls in pivotal midterm elections at a time of discontent over the high cost of living and the state of the economy.

https://apnews.com/article/jobs-unemployment-economy-ai-hiring-44b99f9ccbff863888af99402ddf535e?

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Despite a softening labor market, Latina workers continue to register record-high employment rates in 2026. Young Hispanic workers are not seeing similar gains.

Around this time last year, we wrote about the remarkable resilience Hispanic workers were showing in the labor market. Despite weaker job growth, the share of Hispanic workers with a job remained high, largely driven by a record-high employment rate among Latina workers.  

https://www.epi.org/blog/despite-a-softening-labor-market-latina-workers-continue-to-register-record-high-employment-rates-in-2026-young-hispanic-workers-are-not-seeing-similar-gains/?

Weak September jobs report shows hiring and wage growth slow

Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on the jobs report released this morning. Read the full thread here. 

https://www.epi.org/blog/weak-september-jobs-report-shows-hiring-and-wage-growth-slow/?

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💰 Post-pandemic surprise

Data: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances. Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios A surprising finding from one of the most thorough datasets on American household finances, released Friday morning by the Fed: Middle- and lower-earners' inflation-adjusted incomes rose during the post-pandemic years — but high earners saw their incomes fall, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes. Go deeper.

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Despite a softening labor market, Latina workers continue to register record-high employment rates in 2026. Young Hispanic workers are not seeing similar gains.

Around this time last year, we wrote about the remarkable resilience Hispanic workers were showing in the labor market. Despite weaker job growth, the share of Hispanic workers with a job remained high, largely driven by a record-high employment rate among Latina workers.  

https://www.epi.org/blog/despite-a-softening-labor-market-latina-workers-continue-to-register-record-high-employment-rates-in-2026-young-hispanic-workers-are-not-seeing-similar-gains/?

Weak September jobs report shows hiring and wage growth slow

Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on the jobs report released this morning. Read the full thread here. 

https://www.epi.org/blog/weak-september-jobs-report-shows-hiring-and-wage-growth-slow/?

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America's job jitters

Data: Pew Research Center. Chart: Axios 48% of U.S. adults are very concerned that people who want to work won't be able to find jobs, according to a Pew survey — the highest reading since it started asking the question five years ago, Axios' Courtenay Brown and Neal Rothschild write. Half of Americans also say they're very concerned about AI's role in the economy, Pew found. Keep reading.

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Inflation worsened last month to 3.7% in sign that prices remain elevated as midterm elections near

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. inflation accelerated last month as gasoline and many other goods and services became more expensive, evidence that rising prices remain an economic challenge just a few weeks before midterm elections that have focused heavily on affordability.

https://apnews.com/article/cpi-inflation-consumer-prices-affordability-3985019a54c82421e6112fb57baba048?

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Inflation Rise Continues

US prices rose 3.7% last month from September 2025, the latest Consumer Price Index report revealed yesterday. The report is the last of its kind before the November midterm elections, with polls showing the economy is voters’ top issue. Cost bumps were spread across most categories, including housing, clothing, and restaurant food, though groceries saw prices decline since August. The war in Iran has fueled cost increases, as oil prices climbed to over $106 per barrel since August (see the latest prices in your state). The cost of diesel—which powers farms and the shipping industry, among other industries—has increased 70% since the start of the war; see past write-up here. The 3.7% rate was higher than analysts had expected and above the Federal Reserve’s target goal of 2%. The bank has signaled at least one more interest rate hike may come this year, with the next Fed meeting scheduled for Oct. 27-28, days before Election Day. Stocks dropped on yesterday’s news (S&P 500 -1.1%, Dow -0.1%, Nasdaq -1.9%).

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📉 Charted: CEO mood sours

Data: The Conference Board and The Business Council. Chart: Axios/Emily Peck CEO confidence in the U.S. economy sank into negative territory earlier this month, Axios' Emily Peck writes from a Conference Board survey out this morning. The CEO Confidence Index — a survey of 131 Fortune 500 CEOs — fell to 46, down from 52 just three months ago. Any number below 50 signals negative sentiment. ⚠️ Threat level: 41% of CEOs expected economic conditions to worsen — up from 19% in the previous quarter. Executives' concerns over cybersecurity, AI and geopolitics rose significantly from three months ago. Keep reading.

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Inflation stings — and gas prices aren’t helping

Inflation has outpaced wage growth for six straight months, while average US gas prices have remained at or above $4 a gallon for 167 days this year. That marks a new annual record for elevated gas prices, surpassing even the longest streak recorded during the Biden administration. Before the war with Iran, gas averaged under $3 a gallon. And despite President Trump’s controversial deal last week to buy Russian diesel, prices still haven’t come down.

+ Read more: Inflation rose to 3.7% last month in last snapshot of consumer prices

+ Fact check: Breaking down Trump’s rosy comparison to gas prices under Biden

+ Plus: US-Russia diesel deal draws bipartisan criticism US retail trade group forecasts healthy holiday sales, in part due to inflation Don't count out U.S. shoppers when it comes to shelling out money for the winter holidays despite higher fuel prices and other financial pressures. Read More.

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📍 How cost of living affects poverty

Data: Census Bureau. Map: Erin Davis/Axios California and Louisiana have something surprising in common: Both have some of the nation's highest poverty rates when the cost of living is factored in, Axios' Russell Contreras writes from Census Bureau data. The big picture: Southern states dominate America's traditional poverty rankings based on pretax income. That familiar geographic divide starts to disappear when you account for more of a family's financial realities. The Supplemental Poverty Measure includes factors like taxes, work and medical expenses, and geographic differences in housing costs.