The Economy

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• 🍅 Wholesale prices — including those for consumer staples like fresh vegetables — rose rapidly in February, even before the Iran war began. Go deeper.

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📈 Larry Fink: "Growing with your country"

Graphic: BlackRock investors' letter Larry Fink — chairman and CEO of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager — says in a letter to investors, out this morning, that for more Americans to share in the future growth of their country, "we have to make long-term investing easier, broader, and more accessible." Why it matters: Fink, who calls himself a "long-term optimist," has worked passionately to stimulate a conversation about rethinking retirement in America. "The world is reorganizing around self-reliance — and that's expensive," he writes in the 17-page letter. "And that requires more long-term investment." Getting more Americans invested in their own economy, Fink says, starts with "early wealth-building accounts and a long-overdue conversation about Social Security." Fink writes that much of today's economic anxiety comes from the feeling "that capitalism is working — just not for enough people. And a focus on short-term investing is not a fix for that. Rather, it is long-term investing ... that lets people build enduring wealth, and shows how their country's growth can benefit them too." 🔮 What's next: Fink is concerned about making prosperity "feel increasingly distant to those on the outside." He wants the country to navigate the coming AI jobs disruption so we don't replicate, for instance, the hammering the Rust Belt took during globalization, and instead help as many people as possible benefit from the dynamism of the economy. In the short term, AI is spawning jobs that pay well: skilled trades, especially ones like electricians that are building the physical infrastructure of AI — data centers, power systems and electrical grids. "For decades," Fink writes, "many societies have equated success with a university degree and a white-collar path. As technology reshapes parts of that landscape, we need a broader conversation about opportunity, dignity, and the value of different kinds of work."

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🚨 New inflation warning

Data: OECD. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals The OECD projects that U.S. inflation will edge up to 4.2% this year — up 1.2 percentage points from its previous forecast in December, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes. Why it matters: All over the world, a stabilizing inflation picture has been upended by the most severe global energy shock in decades. 📉 Wall Street suffered its worst losses yesterday since the war began, with the S&P 500 declining roughly 1.7%. Keep reading.

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It's women's economy now

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Indeed Hiring Lab. Chart: Axios Visuals The U.S. workforce has more women than men for only the third time ever, Axios' Emily Peck writes from a new Indeed report based on federal data. This isn't quite a women's empowerment story. Traditionally male-dominated occupations are shrinking, while female-led jobs are growing. (They still tend to be lower-paid, though.) Two dynamics are driving the shift: 🏥 1. Health care — a female-dominated field — is the job market's fastest-growing sector. Job growth in the largely male construction and manufacturing fields has been flat or negative. 📉 2. Fewer men are participating in the job market. Male employment fell by 142,000 jobs from February 2025 to February 2026. That's partly because President Trump's immigration crackdown has pushed a lot more men out of the workforce. 👨‍⚕️ It would seem like a no-brainer for more men to move into health care. But some are reluctant to take jobs that can be seen as "women's work." Economist Richard Reeves, founder of the advocacy group American Institute for Boys and Men, tells Axios: "Men are missing out in the labor market because there are too many 'no-go' zones for male workers." There's long been a push to get more women into STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) careers. But there's been less of an effort to get more men into what Reeves calls "HEAL" professions: jobs in health and education that require literacy. 👨‍🏫 More men in such roles could address labor shortages and gender gaps — and get more guys working again, Reeves says. Go deeper ... Read Indeed's report.

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The gender pay gap widened slightly in 2025

How Trump’s first year in office hurt women and what states can do to fix it

https://www.epi.org/blog/the-gender-pay-gap-widened-slightly-in-2025-how-trumps-first-year-in-office-hurt-women-and-what-states-can-do-to-fix-it/?

Immigration operations cost Maine’s economy millions

The surge in activity by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in late January likely cost local economies millions of dollars in lost economic activity.

https://www.mecep.org/blog/immigration-operations-cost-maines-economy-millions/?

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Consumers' triple whammy

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

A month into the Iran war, American consumers are caught in three levels of pain, Axios' Neil Irwin writes: ⛽ Energy prices are surging — the national average for gas is poised to top $4/gallon, up from $3 just a month ago. (This morning, it's $3.976.) 🏠 Interest rates are on the rise, pushing up the cost of borrowing for everything from mortgages to car loans. 📉 The stock market has erased $3.2 trillion in value since the war began — down more than 7% from its January high. Why it matters: Americans desperately want day-to-day life to be more affordable. That's not happening — at least, not in the near term. "Consumers are tired of high prices," Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin said in a speech yesterday. "They're deferring purchases, trading down, and moving down to lower-priced retailers and private label." The international OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) projects U.S. inflation will reach 4.2% this year — up from a pre-war forecast of 3% in December. That's lower than the inflation rate reached in 2022, the peak of the post-pandemic supply chain snarls, and the impact of the Ukraine war. 👀 A 4% surge would come on top of five consecutive years of elevated inflation; consumer prices are up 25% since December 2020. 💼 The job market is weaker now than it was in 2022, with less hiring and smaller pay increases to help offset higher costs. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 53.3 in March — its lowest rating since December — with nearly half of respondents spontaneously citing prices as a strain on their finances. Lead stories of today's Financial Times and yesterday's Wall Street Journal. A front-page headline in today's Journal: "Wall Street's Alarm Over War Grows." State of play: The prospects of higher inflation and higher government borrowing have fueled sell-offs in stocks and bonds — depleting household wealth and making it more costly to borrow to buy a home. The S&P 500 is down nearly 7% so far this year. Stock market wealth has helped support overall consumer spending, especially among the affluent. A month ago, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage slipped to under 6% for the first time in three years. Now it's back up to 6.64%. 👀 The other side: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued at President Trump's Cabinet meeting this week that critics "underestimate the will of the American people for short-term volatility, for 50 years of safety that we are going to have on the other side of this."

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👩‍💻 Office vacancies hit record high

Data: Moody's Analytics REIS. (Based on rates in 79 markets.) Chart: Emily Peck/Axios Office vacancies hit a record high in the first three months of the year, per Moody's data shared exclusively with Axios' Emily Peck. 21% of the office space across nearly 80 U.S. markets was vacant in the first quarter, up from 17% in 2020. Employees now spend about a quarter of their working days away from the office. That's up from 7% in January 2020, just before the pandemic. 🏢 Some companies are downsizing into smaller but more premium spaces. The slowing labor market and AI uncertainty are also suppressing demand. Go deeper.

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How ARPA State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds helped ensure a swift post-COVID recovery

The American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) was enacted on March 11, 2021. Among other provisions, ARPA allocated $350 billion for State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds (SLFRF). SLFRF was a recognition of the stark reality that the COVID-19 pandemic had wreaked havoc on state and local government finances (McNicholas, Bivens, and Shierholz 2020). SLFRF was also a reflection of lessons that policymakers learned from recent history. In the years following the Great Recession, inadequate fiscal support to state and local governments resulted in massive budget cuts, public-sector job losses, and reduced spending that dragged on the economy, delaying economic recovery by years (Shierholz and Bivens 2013). With the prospect of potentially devastating COVID-19-induced state and local budget shortfalls, Congress and the Biden administration made the decision to spend at the scale of the problem by making sure SLFRF was large enough to meet its recipients’ needs.

https://www.epi.org/publication/how-arpa-state-and-local-fiscal-recovery-funds-helped-ensure-a-swift-post-covid-recovery/?

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🛒 War's grocery cost

Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios

The wartime spike in gas and oil prices will likely push food prices even higher in the coming weeks, Axios Markets' Emily Peck reports. Why it matters: The war is just the latest stress on food inflation — on top of tariffs, rising electricity prices and an immigration crackdown that has driven up labor costs. 🚛 How it works: The immediate shock on the grocery shelf comes via higher costs of transportation — getting food from warehouses and farms to the store. Lots of fertilizer is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Those increases will take longer to filter down to food prices.

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⚡️ Power bills rise faster than gas, groceries

Data: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Chart: Ben Geman/Axios Inflation-adjusted residential electricity costs rose 5.6% from 2019 to 2025 — faster than health care, gas and groceries, Axios Future of Energy's Ben Geman writes from a new Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report. But power costs as a share of total household spending on goods and services are near all-time lows.

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America's top tippers

Data: Toast. Map: Axios Visuals Delaware, West Virginia, New Hampshire and Indiana are home to America's best tippers, with diners leaving roughly 21% or higher on average, according to Toast data, Axios' Sami Sparber writes. Nationwide, tips at full-service restaurants averaged 19.2% in Q4 2025, the same as the previous quarter, per Toast's latest restaurant trends report. At the bottom for overall tipping are California, D.C. and Washington state, where averages run under 18%.

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Skilled sewers in demand as tailors and dressmakers retire Creating and fitting garments to individual specifications hasn’t attracted enough entry-level workers over the years to replace the professionals retiring their pincushions after decades of performing their craft. Read more.

Why this matters: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated almost two years ago there were fewer than 17,000 tailors, custom sewers and dressmakers working in business establishments nationwide, a 30% decline from a decade earlier. But there is still healthy demand for their services. Shoppers who grew up on disposable fast fashion are enlisting tailors and seamstresses to give off-the-rack purchases a custom fit or personal flair, to revive secondhand finds or to extend the lives of their wardrobes, according to fashion industry experts. Weight-loss drugs like Zepbound and Wegovy mean more Americans are seeking adjusted waistbands, tapered sleeves and other types of resizing, one tailor said.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ See portraits of tailors at work

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AI's impact starting to show up

Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios

AI's job market impact is starting to show up in the data. So far, it's modest but real, Axios Markets author Emily Peck writes. New reports from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs put a giant asterisk on fears of a white-collar bloodbath fueled by AI. Zoom in: Goldman Sachs scored jobs by AI exposure, separating roles that can be completely substituted by AI (proofreader) and those that can be considered complementary (doctor). AI reduced employment in occupations that are easily substituted by AI. But it increased employment in jobs that are "augmented" by AI — roles that rely on things that machines cannot replace, like human judgment. By the numbers: Overall, AI raised the unemployment rate by just 0.1 percentage point, per Goldman. Morgan Stanley came to a similar conclusion. 👓 Case in point: Ten years ago, the godfather of AI, Geoffrey Hinton, famously said: "We should stop training radiologists now. It's just completely obvious that within five years, deep learning is going to do better than radiologists." Instead, radiologists have broadly adopted AI and are using the tools to do their jobs better, as The New York Times reported last year. The number of radiologists has increased, and their pay has gone up, since Hinton's comments.

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💼 Changing labor math

Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios For decades, the U.S. economy needed more than 100,000 new jobs a month just to keep the unemployment rate from rising. That threshold has now collapsed toward zero, Axios Macro co-author Courtenay Brown writes. It reflects three key changes: 👶 The youngest baby boomers are reaching retirement age. 👵 Smaller generations are aging into the workforce. ✈️ Restrictive immigration policy includes deportations and fewer new workers from abroad.

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Community benefits agreements can turn Southern manufacturing investments into good jobs and shared prosperity

Rising authoritarianism and the need to upend the failed Southern economic development model

https://www.epi.org/publication/community-benefits-agreements-can-turn-southern-manufacturing-investments-into-good-jobs-and-shared-prosperity/?

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Key inflation gauge remains elevated in February before Iran war

WASHINGTON (AP) — A key measure of inflation stayed high in February, before the war in Iran spiked gas prices, a sign that everyday costs were elevated even before the conflict began.

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-economy-spending-917584878bbdc8d19dc6bc55c8509556?

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⛳ Retiring en masse

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED. (Figures reflect labor force participation rate.) Chart: Emily Peck/Axios The share of adults age 55 and up in the workforce is at its lowest level in two decades, as more baby boomers age out of their working years, Axios' Emily Peck writes from last week's jobs report. Why it matters: The growing population of older Americans — the youngest boomers turn 62 this year — is one of two huge demographic forces hitting the labor market right now, as evidenced in last week's jobs report. The other is the big decline in immigration. ✌️ The intrigue: The Wall Street Journal recently reported that some older workers are leaving the job market rather than deal with the disruption brought on by AI (gift link).

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More inflation pain ahead

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios March's inflation numbers tell one key story: the surge in energy prices driven by the Iran war, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes. Big price spikes in other categories — airfares, groceries, etc. — will likely follow as the energy shock reverberates through the economy. 📈 By the numbers: Overall inflation rose 0.9% last month, the largest jump since June 2022. Gas prices surged 21%. That's their biggest monthly gain in nearly 60 years, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the total rise. Core inflation — which strips out food and energy prices — rose just 0.2%, the same pace as the previous month. Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios ⚡️ Energy shocks take time to have a broader effect. This one mostly hasn't registered yet in other, non-energy industries — but they're bracing for impact. ✈️ Airfares surged 2.7% in March, after February's 1.4% increase. More price hikes are likely amid skyrocketing jet fuel costs. Food prices were flat last month, though farmers and food manufacturers are warning about fertilizer shortages as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. 🍳 There's one bit of good news: Egg prices are down about 60% from this time last year as the bird flu crisis fades. Bloomberg's BEC index — that's bacon, egg and cheese, for all the non-New Yorkers out there — fell to $2.65 in March, down nearly 20% year over year. But coffee is up about 30%, fueled by tariffs and climate change. The bottom line: The squeeze on Americans' budgets is just starting, with huge uncertainty about whether price increases will lead to less spending and an economic slowdown. Go deeper.

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More inflation pain ahead

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios March's inflation numbers tell one key story: the surge in energy prices driven by the Iran war, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes. Big price spikes in other categories — airfares, groceries, etc. — will likely follow as the energy shock reverberates through the economy. 📈 By the numbers: Overall inflation rose 0.9% last month, the largest jump since June 2022. Gas prices surged 21%. That's their biggest monthly gain in nearly 60 years, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the total rise. Core inflation — which strips out food and energy prices — rose just 0.2%, the same pace as the previous month. Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios ⚡️ Energy shocks take time to have a broader effect. This one mostly hasn't registered yet in other, non-energy industries — but they're bracing for impact. ✈️ Airfares surged 2.7% in March, after February's 1.4% increase. More price hikes are likely amid skyrocketing jet fuel costs. Food prices were flat last month, though farmers and food manufacturers are warning about fertilizer shortages as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. 🍳 There's one bit of good news: Egg prices are down about 60% from this time last year as the bird flu crisis fades. Bloomberg's BEC index — that's bacon, egg and cheese, for all the non-New Yorkers out there — fell to $2.65 in March, down nearly 20% year over year. But coffee is up about 30%, fueled by tariffs and climate change. The bottom line: The squeeze on Americans' budgets is just starting, with huge uncertainty about whether price increases will lead to less spending and an economic slowdown. Go deeper.

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💡 Megatrend: Inflation defines this decade

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios It increasingly looks as if the inflation problem that emerged five years ago wasn't a one-off event, but the defining economic challenge of the decade — and Americans don't like it one bit, Axios' Neil Irwin writes. Price pressures were already reaccelerating in the last few months, even before the U.S.–Israeli attack on Iran disrupted global energy supplies. Since January 2021, consumer prices have climbed a cumulative 26%. The big picture: Americans are deeply angry at the constellation of economic forces buffeting them, especially higher prices and diminished job prospects. Both are bound to get worse before they get better. 😤 Since the initial outburst in 2021, economists have taken solace that price spikes could be chalked up to one-time factors: pandemic supply chain snarls, excessive stimulus, the Ukraine war, tariffs and now Iran. But when those seemingly one-off events pile up on top of each other, it no longer looks like a spurt of bad luck, but rather a resetting of prices across the economy. Recent data provides overwhelming evidence of both how persistent 2020s-style inflation has proven to be, and just how much people hate it. ⛽ Stunning stat: The 21% surge in gasoline prices in March was the biggest single-month percentage increase in records that date back to the 1960s. That drove the overall Consumer Price Index to its highest one-month surge since the peak of the Biden-era inflation in 2022. The year-over-year reading reached 3.3%, its highest in nearly two years. 😬 What's happening: Even as price pressures build, job prospects have started looking worse. The rate at which companies have hired new workers fell in February to match the lowest levels of the pandemic. Wages are no longer rising as they did earlier in the inflationary surge.

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The Walt Disney Co. begins laying off 1,000 employees

NEW YORK (AP) — The Walt Disney Co. on Tuesday began layoffs expected to lead to 1,000 job cuts across the company.

https://apnews.com/article/disney-layoffs-8434044668b03755c8a8c7a4b51f57bd?

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Misclassifying workers as independent contractors is costly for workers and social insurance systems

The type of misclassification addressed in this report occurs when an employer wrongly classifies an employee as an independent contractor. The problem of workers being misclassified as independent contractors is pervasive and widespread. An analysis from the National Employment Law Project focusing on state-level reports on misclassification estimated that as many as 10–30% of employers misclassify their workers.1

https://www.epi.org/publication/misclassifying-workers-as-independent-contractors-is-costly-for-workers-and-social-insurance-systems/?

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Work vibes hit record lows

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios Two key worker satisfaction scores are at all-time lows, Axios' Courtenay Brown reports from bleak new N.Y. Fed survey results. 📉 The share of workers saying that they're satisfied with their pay fell to 52.3% in March, down 3.3 points. That's the smallest share in the survey's 12-year history. 😫 Workers' satisfaction with their promotion opportunities fell by a similar amount, also to the lowest share on record. The only satisfaction gauge above record lows: non-wage benefits, like health coverage and retirement plans. 🤷 Despite the bad vibes, people generally aren't planning to quit anytime soon. On average, workers say there's only about a 10% chance that they'll have a new employer in the next four months. That's the lowest since March 2021. Go deeper.

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💰 AI boom's hidden cost

Data: Michael E. Waugh. Chart: Axios Visuals The AI buildout is the new, powerful force widening America's trade gap, Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin write for Axios Macro. Why it matters: Shrinking the trade deficit and winning the AI race rank high on President Trump's economic agenda — but those aims are pulling in opposite directions, as AI-related products get a lighter tariff treatment.

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• 💰 The Rockefeller Foundation is putting $100 million toward helping U.S. workers adapt to tech-driven changes in the labor market, Axios' Ashley Gold reports. Go deeper.