The Economy

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Economic angst unites Americans in a time of polarization, according to a new poll

A new survey from the American Communities Project shows that pessimism about the country’s future has risen in cities since last year, but rural America is more optimistic about what’s ahead for the U.S. The common denominator across the communities? A gnawing worry about daily household costs. Read more.

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New analysis shows more US consumers are falling behind on their utility bills Trump scraps tariffs on beef, coffee and tropical fruit in a push to lower grocery store prices USDA data casts doubt on China’s soybean purchase promises touted by Trump

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Target may have hit rock bottom

In the latest signal of trouble, the company reported sales dropped during its latest quarter, and Target cut its full-year profit guidance Wednesday. The company’s sales have stagnated for about four years, and Target said last month that it would cut 1,000 corporate employees, roughly 8% of its global workforce.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/19/business/target-stock-economy?

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Better things come to those who wait

The importance of patience in diagnosing labor force participation rates and prescribing policy solutions

https://www.epi.org/publication/better-things-come-to-those-who-wait-the-importance-of-patience-in-diagnosing-labor-force-participation-rates-and-prescribing-policy-solutions/?

ps:Exactly! Even the Bible tells to wait and be patient!!

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Stores keep prices down in a tough year for turkeys. Other Thanksgiving foods may cost more The shrinking turkey population is expected to cause wholesale prices to rise 44% this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Read more.

What to know: Despite the increase, many stores are offering discounted or even free turkeys to soften the potential blow to Thanksgiving meal budgets. But even if the bird is cheaper than last year, the ingredients to prepare the rest of the holiday feast may not be. Tariffs on imported steel, for example, have increased prices for canned goods.   As of Nov. 17, a basket of 11 Thanksgiving staples — including a 10-pound frozen turkey, 10 Russet potatoes, a box of stuffing and cans of corn, green beans and cranberry sauce – cost $58.81, or 4.1% more than last year, according to Datasembly, a market research company that surveys weekly prices at 150,000 U.S. stores.   Avian viruses are the main culprit. But another reason for turkey’s higher wholesale prices has been an increase in consumer demand as other meats have gotten more expensive, according to Mark Jordan, the executive director of Leap Market Analytics. Beef prices were up 14% in September compared with last year, for example.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ FACT FOCUS: Trump says Thanksgiving dinner will cost 25% less this year. His numbers are misleading   Senator demands answers on Northwest fuel pipeline shutdown that could affect Thanksgiving travel

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?‍? The kids aren't alright

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios It's a hard time to be a young adult, Axios' Madison Mills writes. ? Youth unemployment is spiking, homeownership is increasingly out of reach, and college is no longer a sure bet. ? By the numbers: Unemployment among workers aged 20–24 is up 2.1 percentage points since early 2023. For those aged 16–19, it's up 3.5 points. ? Wage growth for young workers is falling faster than that of any other age group. ? Upward mobility, normally strongest early in careers, has stalled as job-switching opportunities vanish. Layoffs are rising among entry-level workers too. ? Young people are more easily replaced by AI, strategists tell Axios — though it's unclear how many recent job cuts are truly due to the emerging tech. The bottom line: Young adults' economic woes "could have a long-term scarring impact," economist Grace Zwemmer writes in a new report on Gen Z's struggles to realize the American Dream. Go deeper.

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Apple Reportedly Cuts Dozens of Jobs Across Its Sales Division

Some laid-off workers claim the company is just trying to offload its sales responsibilities to third-party resellers, Bloomberg reports.

https://www.pcmag.com/news/apple-reportedly-cuts-dozens-of-jobs-across-its-sales-division?

ps:The workers can claim whatever they want, but if you look back to when all these billionaires gave extortion money of a billion dollars to trump, you will see that those companies have laid off workers by the truck load!!

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Shoppers hit Black Friday sales with celebratory mood despite economic strain

NEW YORK (AP) — The economic picture hasn’t looked very rosy: Hiring has been sluggish. Consumers have been dealing with soaring meat prices. Layoffs are rippling through companies.

https://apnews.com/article/black-friday-deals-holiday-shopping-2d85fcbab82d71ecd930b6fe1060f3c1?

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?️ Biggest holiday spenders

Data: PwC. Chart: Axios Visuals Shoppers in the Northeast and West are projected to outspend the national average of $1,552 per person — which includes gifts, travel and entertainment, Axios' Sami Sparber writes from PwC research. "Households with children are expected to spend more than twice as much as those without, PwC writes. "Households with children under the age of 18 are ... shelling out $2,349 on average, more than double the $1,089 spent by those without kids." ⚡ Just in: Black Friday retail sales growth picked up this year as shoppers shook off economic uncertainty and weak sentiment, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes. Friday's retail sales excluding autos rose 4.1%, per Mastercard SpendingPulse. That's stronger than last year's 3.4% growth. Adobe Analytics, which tracks e-commerce, said U.S. consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online Friday, marking a 9.1% jump from last year, AP reports. ?️ Traffic particularly piled up between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. local time nationwide: $12.5 million passed through online shopping carts every minute. ? Consumers spent a record $6.4 billion online on Thanksgiving Day, per Adobe. ? Top categories that saw an uptick in sales across both days included video game consoles, electronics and home appliances. ? AI-powered shopping services and social media ads were big influences. ? What to watch: Cyber Monday — tomorrow! —will be the next key indicator of retail's health. Go deeper: "AI helps drive record $11.8 billion in Black Friday online spending" (Reuters)

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Here’s why everyone’s talking about a ‘K-shaped’ economy

A big reason references to the “K-shaped economy” are popping up so often is that it helps explain an unusually muddy and convoluted period for the U.S. economy. Growth appears solid, yet hiring is sluggish and the unemployment rate has ticked up. Overall consumer spending is still rising, but Americans are less confident. Read more.

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Layoffs are piling up, raising worker anxiety. Here are some companies that have cut jobs recently Why Cyber Monday could break spending records despite economic uncertainty Building an emergency fund can feel daunting, but these tips can help   Pay more, get less Black Friday once again proved that Americans are willing to shop when they spot bargains, and the retail sales numbers are encouraging. But there’s a disturbing trend: People are spending more but getting less. ps:Exactly!!

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Sticker shock

The average price of a new car briefly topped $50,000 in September for the first time, before slipping back down. Now automotive experts say prices will pass that threshold again — and this time, they might stay there.   Main Street bust     Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios   Economic pain is mounting quickly for America's small businesses, raising the chances of a Main Street recession despite an AI-powered growth boom, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes. Why it matters: The fortunes of mom-and-pop businesses are diverging from their larger counterparts. The dynamic isn't new, but the divide is getting bigger, faster. It exposes a vulnerability for President Trump's economic agenda, which top officials have said is focused on reigniting Main Street businesses. ?️ The big picture: Larger businesses have been able to adapt to a tough economic backdrop — historic tariffs, high interest rates and a more cautious consumer — in ways far more challenging for small companies with fewer resources. "They can set prices, they can change suppliers, they can hire contractors instead of permanent employees in a more sophisticated way," says ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. "They have more tools in the toolbox." Zoom in: The private sector shed 32,000 jobs in November, according to payroll processor ADP. Small firms — those with fewer than 50 employees — accounted for all the losses. Those businesses reported a net loss of 120,000 jobs, the largest number small businesses have cut since the onset of the pandemic. Larger businesses grew, but not enough to offset the cuts elsewhere. ? Reality check: The Trump administration shrugged off the ADP data that indicated a hiring bust. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC that the cuts were due to factors unrelated to tariffs, like immigration crackdowns. But ADP had earlier told reporters that small businesses generally had less demand for workers, not that staff weren't available for hire.

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Spiking energy costs

Stephanie Tate couldn’t figure out why her energy bills spiked to $400 a month. Nothing was wrong with her HVAC system, and she kept her thermostat at reasonable levels — even bundling up instead of turning up the heat. After a closer look at her bill, she realized that the rising costs had nothing to do with the electricity she was using.

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Winner-take-most economy

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

Everything is becoming more concentrated — from merging streaming giants, to a stock market powered by a handful of AI winners, to an economy increasingly driven by the spending of the wealthy. Why it matters: With fewer participants, winning is harder, whether you're an investor looking for returns, a consumer looking to build wealth or a business trying to compete, Axios' Madison Mills writes. ? Netflix's victory in bidding to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery's studio and streaming assets, potentially combining two of the world's largest streaming platforms, is part of a larger trend of dealmaking soaring under the Trump administration — due in part to its friendlier regulatory practices. In streaming, scale has become one of the only viable strategies for growth. (Netflix can't increase its subscriber count forever, which may be why the company stopped reporting that figure in earnings releases.) The big picture: The same forces driving consolidation in media are playing out across the economy. A tiny cluster of AI stocks accounts for 40% of the S&P 500. They've delivered a bull market with back-to-back years of double-digit gains. But a wobble in AI could take down the broader market. The top 10% of earners in America now make up half of all consumer spending — and any pullback by that small group can drag down growth.

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The missing piece in the affordability debate

Affordability—or the lack of it—is dominating the public discourse. “Affordability, affordability, affordability: Democrats’ new winning formula,” proclaims Politico. “Trump tries to seize ‘affordability’ message,” reports The New York Times. Election results in New Jersey, Virginia, New York and elsewhere showed that voters are responding to candidates who speak directly to the cost of living.

https://www.epi.org/blog/the-missing-piece-in-the-affordability-debate-higher-paychecks/?

A history of the federal minimum wage

85 years later, the minimum wage is far from equitable

https://www.epi.org/blog/a-history-of-the-federal-minimum-wage-85-years-later-the-minimum-wage-is-far-from-equitable/?

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AI's energy gusher

Illustration: Maura Kearns/Axios

The age of AI is ushering in the golden age of American energy, Axios' Amy Harder writes. Why it matters: Long prized for being boring — cheap, reliable, predictable — American power is exploding with new growth, wild ideas and sci-fi level possibilities. It's a massive economic growth engine brimming with once-unimaginable investment and experimentation. ? How it works: The AI boom is shifting the tectonic plates of our stubborn energy systems. One plate has been squarely in our face (and our power bills) this past year. Three others are also sliding into place. Let's break them down: A data center land rush is pushing up electricity prices, igniting NIMBY fights and straining grid reliability. The latest sign of stress: The NAACP is holding an event this week called "Stop Dirty Data" to highlight its concerns. Skyrocketing power demand is boosting once-too-expensive clean-energy technologies — from advanced nuclear to carbon capture — by giving them massive prospective customers such as Google and Microsoft willing to pay top dollar. AI itself could accelerate cleantech breakthroughs, including long-promised dreams like fusion. It's already helping with geothermal discoveries. AI is also boosting oil and gas, improving subsurface mapping and squeezing more fuel from existing fields. Mike Sommers, head of the American Petroleum Institute, told us: "Artificial intelligence is … going to be the next fracking boom. It is going to allow us to explore the subsurface in a way we never have before." ? Reality check: Like past energy golden ages — shale oil and gas, electrification, the rise of cars — this one carries its own underbelly: data center backlash, higher power prices and new equity concerns. And if the AI boom turns out to be a bubble and bursts, as some analysts predict, this energy gusher could dry up just as fast as it has opened, risking billions of dollars of stranded assets.

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Economy

As high costs continue to squeeze US households, President Donald Trump is trying to allay affordability concerns and deflect blame for the financial strain felt by millions of Americans. During a speech in Mount Pocano, Pennsylvania, on Tuesday, he debuted a new economic message: Democrats drove up prices, "and we're bringing them down." But he undercut his argument at times, often veering into insult-ridden tangents. Trump repeatedly pinned high prices on former President Joe Biden, relentlessly mocking his predecessor. While Trump has dismissed concerns about affordability as a "Democratic hoax," a Fox News national survey from November found that 76% of voters view the economy negatively.

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? Bean boom

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Grocery prices continue to squeeze budgets. But one New Orleans company is seeing sales growth: Camellia Beans. As American consumers look for affordable options, Camellia is creating one-and-done bean seasonings and even experimenting with Depression-era recipes, Axios New Orleans' Chelsea Brasted writes. ? Zoom in: The price of beef hit a historic high of $6.32 per pound in September. A pound of dried beans was just $1.63. "As the economy goes down, bean consumption goes up," says Camellia Beans CEO Vince Hayward. "You eat more beans when you have less money. That's a life imperative." The company recently introduced its new "Infusions" line, a single seasoning packet to make "a great pot of beans," Hayward says. His team developed new recipes inspired by cooking strategies from the Depression.

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Without today’s jobs report, next-best data indicate a weakening labor market

In normal times, today would have been a jobs day. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been forced to delay the release until December 16 due to the lingering impacts of the Trump administration radically restricting BLS operations during the government shutdown. Further, BLS has announced that we will never have data from the monthly survey of households for October. This means that valuable information for that month—like the overall unemployment rate or the unemployment rate for various demographic groups—will never be known. During the last federal shutdown in 2018–2019, BLS did not suspend its activities and released its employment situation report as normal. In fact, this is the first time in 12 years that a jobs report was delayed and the first time a month of household data will be missed completely.

https://www.epi.org/blog/without-todays-jobs-report-next-best-data-indicate-a-weakening-labor-market/?

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? Merry Christmas! You're fired

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

The stigma around end-of-year layoffs may be easing — taking us back to a time when businesses were less worried about the optics of firing people right before the holidays, Axios' Emily Peck reports. We still don't have official employment numbers from November, but there are red flags: Job cuts this November were up 24% from the same time a year ago, per private market layoff data from Challenger, Gray and Christmas. Private employers announced 71,321 planned cuts. That's only the second time since the 2008 financial crisis that cuts have been above 70,000 in November. The other time was 2022. Keep reading.

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AI jobs surprise

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

There's new evidence that instead of bringing on a job apocalypse, AI is creating more work and jobs, Axios' Emily Peck writes. Why it matters: We're still in the early stages of the AI transition, and the technology is moving faster than anyone predicted. An intriguing analysis from Vanguard found that both wage and job growth increased over the past two years in the occupations most exposed to AI, compared with those with less exposure. A separate survey found that most institutional investors and CEOs expect AI to drive an increase in hiring across all levels in 2026. ? Zoom in: Real wages increased 3.8% in the occupations with the highest AI exposure from the second quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2025, compared with 0.7% in all other occupations, Vanguard found. Job growth was up 1.7%, compared with a 0.8% gain. AI is making work more productive and letting people focus on higher-value activities, the analysis concludes. ?️ The big picture: There's no question the job market has slowed this year. New federal data out yesterday showed the unemployment rate at its highest level in four years. The tech sector and professional occupations, such as consulting, are seeing job losses and fewer job openings. But the explanations are less about AI and more about other macroeconomic factors. For example, higher interest rates made borrowing more expensive than it was just a few years ago. Between the lines: Improvements in tech creating more demand and work is not a new trend. Think back to the iPhone's early days: The device enabled an entirely new app-based economy and jobs we'd never seen before.

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? Charted: Confidence up

Adapted from Deloitte's CFO Signals report. (Measured as an average score from 1 to 10, where 1 is lowest confidence.) Chart: Axios Visuals Among executives and investors, confidence in the economy is at four-year highs, Axios' Emily Peck writes from two new surveys. Why it matters: It's a sign companies are ready to spend and hire, but it's also the kind of optimism that has preceded past economic slowdowns. Zoom in: Chief financial officers' confidence in the final quarter of 2025 hit its highest point since 2021, according to Deloitte's CFO Signals survey out today. Confidence rose to 6.6 from 5.7 in the previous quarter and 5.8 a year ago. Nearly six in 10 CFOs surveyed said now is a good time to take a risk. Investors feel it, too. Optimism among fund managers hit its highest level since August 2021, says a Bank of America survey also out this week. Yes, but: The comparison to 2021 is a bit worrying. Confidence was high then, and the next year, stocks tanked and inflation soared. Read more.

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? Scoop: Bank lobbying group goes on offense

The Financial Services Forum, a trade association of the country's largest eight banks, is creating a new nonprofit to spend "tens of millions" of dollars to shape public opinion about the banking industry, Axios' Hans Nichols writes.

• Why it matters: Chastened by the 2008 financial crisis, America's biggest banks have mostly avoided the limelight in Washington and have tried to work behind the scenes.

But the forum, under new leadership, wants to re-engage the public on the role banks play in driving economic growth — and it doesn't plan to be shy about it. It's launching the American Growth Alliance, which will be organized as a 501(c)(4) group with "tens of millions of dollars."

• Amanda Eversole, the president and CEO of the forum, tells Axios: "We're going to be much more affirmative in saying, 'We have a lot of positive benefits to the economy' ... We want to make sure that champions in both parties, Republicans and Democrats, understand that."

The bottom line: Eversole has the resources — and the ambition — to find new ways to influence policy about banking both inside and outside Washington.

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?‍? What the jobs report really says

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios The jobs slowdown is real — yet isn't quite as bad as today's headline numbers suggest, Axios' Neil Irwin writes. Yes, the unemployment rate hit a new four-year high, and overall employment contracted. But the details are consistent with our long, gradual labor market slowdown — not an abrupt turn for the worse. ? By the numbers: The jobless rate rose to 4.6% in November, from 4.4% in September (there's no October data due to the shutdown). ? Employers cut a net 105,000 jobs in October, before adding 64,000 in November. ? Reality check: The October job losses were entirely due to the federal government's DOGE buyouts. Separately, the absence of October household survey data meant a higher-than-usual share of November's participants were first-timers, causing a misleading unemployment bump. ? Still, the overall job market looks soft, with sectors outside health care treading water at best. We should get cleaner December data early next month. Go deeper.

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♻️ Whole Foods' new food recycling tech

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios New food recycling tech will turn fruit and veggie scraps at Whole Foods into animal feed — which will then be fed to chickens producing the grocer's eggs, Axios' Amy Harder reports exclusively. ? The machine, from startup Mill, dehydrates and grinds food scraps into coffee-ground-like material, which can be composted or used as feed. ? The technology can shrink waste volumes by up to 80%, Mill says — cutting emissions and saving money. Mill's bins will be rolled out across Whole Foods stores by 2027. ?️ Says Mill co-founder and CEO Matt Rogers: "Waste is one of the largest sectors of the economy that most folks in our industry overlook." Go deeper.

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U.S. economy surprises with 4.3% growth rate in third quarter

The U.S. economy expanded at a 4.3% annualized pace in the third quarter, according to a Commerce Department report Tuesday that had been delayed by the government shutdown.

https://www.axios.com/2025/12/23/gdp-q3-economy-trump?

Resilient US consumers drive strongest economic expansion in 2 years

The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter. It's the most rapid expansion in two years, driven by consumers who continue to spend in the face of ongoing inflation. Economists surveyed by the data firm FactSet had forecast growth of just 3%. Read more.

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Consumer confidence slides in December to lowest level since US tariffs rolled out in April A look at the experts racing to decode Trump’s tariff rules How does Pittsburgh have 20,000 vacant homes -- and a housing shortage?   The US economy grew at the fastest annual pace in two years in the third quarter of the year, according to delayed government data released yesterday.  The nation's gross domestic product—or the value of all the goods and services it produced—rose at a stronger-than-expected annual rate of 4.3% in the July-to-September period. The figure is above economists' forecasts of 3% and the 3.8% growth in the prior quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of overall economic activity, rose at a 3.5% annualized rate, up from 2.5% in the April-to-June period, helping to fuel the stronger output. US exports expanded 8.8%, while imports, which subtract from the GDP, fell 4.7%. Government spending increased 2.2%, and investment in intellectual property, including artificial intelligence, grew 5.4%. See all data here.  The total US GDP is roughly $31T. See historical data here.

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? Historic murder drop

Data: Real Time Crime Index. Chart: Axios Visuals The U.S. is on pace for the largest one-year drop in murders the nation has ever recorded, Axios' Julianna Bragg writes from an analysis by crime stats expert Jeff Asher. Why it matters: The decline in murder is part of a broader decrease in violent crime following the COVID-era spike. Mass killings in the U.S. also fell in 2025 to their lowest level since 2006. The Real-Time Crime Index, which compiles data from 570 law enforcement agencies, shows a nearly 20% decline in murders through October this year compared with the same period in 2024. Other major crime categories measured by the index were also down nationwide and across locations of all population sizes, including motor vehicle thefts (23.2%), aggravated assaults (7.5%) and robbery (18.3%). ? Zoom in: New York City and Memphis recorded nearly a 20% drop in murders compared with 2024, and Chicago saw them fall almost 28%. New Orleans saw a decline of 7.5%, while murders dropped in Los Angeles County by nearly 19%. ? Zoom out: President Trump has prioritized cracking down on violent crime. Crime rates have been declining since 2021, according to data from both the RTCI and FBI.