The Economy

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? Grocery price stress

Data: AP-NORC. Chart: Axios Visuals More than half of Americans are stressed about buying groceries — significantly more than affording credit card debt, child care or student debt, Axios' Avery Lotz writes from an AP-NORC poll out today. The big picture: President Trump campaigned on a promise to bring down grocery prices, but the data shows Americans are still anxious about affording these basic necessities. ?By the numbers: 53% of Americans said the cost of groceries was a major source of stress right now, while 33% said it was a minor source of stress. Just 14% said the price of groceries was not a source of stress. The next-highest sources of financial stress were the cost of housing (47%), the amount of money saved or earned (43%), and the cost of health care (42%). The intrigue: 14% of adults in the poll also reported using buy now, pay later services on groceries, so they could make the purchases and pay for them in installments with services like Afterpay or Klarna. Read on ... Explore the data.

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Trade Deficit Shrinks

The US trade deficit hit a nearly two-year low of $60.2B in June, largely driven by a decline in imports and a narrowing trade shortfall with China. Read the full federal analysis published yesterday here.   The nation's trade deficit—the monetary value by which its imports exceed its exports—shrank 16% from May to June, with imports tumbling by $12.8B. The drop in imports marks a reversal from earlier this year, when Americans front-loaded purchases ahead of the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs, initially set for April. Many of those country-specific tariffs are now expected to take effect Thursday, with average rates on imports projected at 18.3%—the highest since 1934.   The trade gap with China closed roughly one-third in June to $9.4B—its lowest level in over 21 years and down about 70% since January. Beijing and Washington appeared poised to stave off triple-digit tariffs threatened earlier this year for another 90 days, though China’s dependence on Russian oil has reportedly complicated negotiations. Their current truce expires Aug. 12.

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? America's biggest spenders

Chart: Moody's Analytics The wealthy are keeping America's spending going, while consumption from middle and lower income groups is fading, Axios Markets author Madison Mills writes. Why it matters: New tariffs could put even more pressure on lower-income spenders and, potentially, the labor market. ? By the numbers: The top 20% of earners now make up over half of consumer spending, according to Moody's. Spending from middle and lower-income consumers has flatlined. Between the lines: Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of GDP, meaning that it largely determines whether our economy is growing or slowing. But the rich are doing most of the spending — making consumption overall look resilient when only a small group is propping up the data.

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Weak jobs report may signal a coming recession

Below, EPI economists offer their insights on the jobs report released this morning, which showed 73,000 jobs added in July. 

https://www.epi.org/blog/weak-jobs-report-may-signal-a-coming-recession-average-job-growth-just-35000-over-the-past-three-months/?

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Doctors' shrinking paychecks

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

America's doctors are working harder and getting paid less for their time — a trend that could soon limit patient access, Axios' Tina Reed reports. Primary care physicians and specialists are delivering more services post-pandemic, per a new report from consultancy Kaufman Hall. But stagnant reimbursements, inflation and rising labor costs are eroding their income. The data helps explain why medical practice bankruptcies hit a six-year high last year. By the numbers: Net revenue per provider rose about 5% between Q2 2023 and Q2 2025. But revenue per unit of work — or how much a physician generates for the volume of work they put in — fell 7%. Zoom out: Many doctors are selling their practices to health systems or private equity firms, accelerating the corporatization of medicine and shifting priorities toward profit. Others are adding med spa services like Botox and skin-tightening — only to face strained consumer budgets and stiff competition.

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? Wall Street's new fear

Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios

Investors and CEOs fear they're going to be flying blind on investments without sufficient data on the economy's health, Axios' Courtenay Brown and Emily Peck write. Why it matters: The U.S. government produces some of the world's premier economic data. The future of those indicators looks murkier than ever, with no private sector source readily available to replace them. ? The big picture: President Trump is nominating Heritage Foundation economist E.J. Antoni — a MAGA favorite — to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists on the right and the left have questioned whether Antoni is qualified to lead the agency. Between the lines: BLS produces crucial data on jobs and inflation. Other sources, including private sector employment data from payroll processor ADP, help shape the understanding of how the economy is performing. But nothing yet can replace traditional government data.

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Businesses have been eating Trump’s tariffs. That’s starting to change

Costs were sharply on the rise for producers and manufacturers in July, a sign that higher prices could soon filter down to American consumers.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/14/economy/us-ppi-wholesale-inflation-july?

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"Veggie-flation" strikes

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Axios Visuals The U.S. economy has a vegetable problem, and it's not just "broccoli refusal." Wholesale prices for fresh veggies soared by a record amount last month, foreshadowing a possible spike at the grocery store soon, Axios' Ben Berkowitz and Alex Fitzpatrick write. ? Why it matters: If the last few years have taught us anything, it's that the "real" statistics on inflation don't matter when consumers see the prices of tangible, everyday goods — food, gasoline, etc. — rising sharply. While big-box retailers have pledged to hold the line on groceries in the face of tariff pressure, not everyone can (or will) do that as trade war costs mount. ? Stunning stats: A 38.9% increase in prices for fresh and dry vegetables from June to July was the biggest month-on-month increase for fresh vegetables since March 2022. It's also the largest monthly increase ever recorded in a summer month (June-August), in figures that go back to 1947, per Bureau of Labor Statistics data. ? Between the lines: There's no guarantee that one month of rising prices will inevitably pass through. But it's another risk factor that suggests the long-awaited consumer tariff pain could be coming sooner than later. Go deeper: Customers look set to bear the tariff cost burden, by Axios' Courtenay Brown.

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? Charted: New spending gap

Data: Bank of America Institute. Chart: Axios Visuals Rich Americans are spending at a higher rate this year — while everyone else is slowing their roll, Axios' Emily Peck writes. Why it matters: New data show that while the good times continue for higher-income earners — strong wage growth, less debt — lower-income Americans are under increasing financial stress. ? By the numbers: Spending increased nearly 2% in July from last year for higher-income households, and 1% for middle-earners, according to a Bank of America Institute analysis released earlier this week. For the lowest third of households, those earning roughly $50,000 a year or less, spending growth was zero. Go deeper: More spending data.

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? Job market gloom

Data: University of Michigan. Chart: Axios Visuals Americans haven't been this gloomy about the job market since the Great Recession, Axios' Courtenay Brown reports. Why it matters: Fears about joblessness have surged since President Trump unveiled plans to impose steep tariffs on foreign goods. By the numbers: As of early August, that pessimism was in step with that of the 2008 financial crisis. About 62% of consumers believe unemployment will worsen in the year ahead, according to the University of Michigan's latest monthly survey. That's bounced around a little in the last few months, but consistently hung around levels not seen since the Great Recession. ? The intrigue: Economic conditions are strikingly different compared to the last time consumers felt this glum. Then: The economy was in the midst of what was the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. The stock market was falling off a cliff, unemployment filings soared and the jobless rate would ultimately peak at 10%. Now: The economy is slowing, though fears are worse than the official data suggests so far. The unemployment rate is holding at a historically low 4.2%, as of July. Read on.

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? Year of Chapter 22

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

"Chapter 22" is a terrifying read for American companies, but multiple major businesses have ended up there in 2025 — and others could soon follow, Axios' Nathan Bomey reports. Why it matters: Joann, Rite Aid and Claire's have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy a second time — colloquially called Chapter 22 — in 2025, and now Spirit Airlines is at risk of joining them. The big picture: The general narrative in Chapter 22 is that liquidation becomes an increasingly realistic possibility as lenders grow skeptical that the underlying business of the bankrupt debtor is sustainable. In other words, if one bankruptcy didn't work, how will a second make a difference? ? By the numbers: Bankruptcies of large public and private companies totaled 71 in July, the highest monthly total in five years, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Businesses are grappling with a sudden uptick in costs from tariffs and sluggish demand from low-income consumers. Read on.

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? Gen Z's double-whammy

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Chart: Axios Visuals New graduates are having an especially tough time landing a job right now: The share of unemployed Americans who are new to the workforce is at a 37-year high, Axios' Emily Peck writes. Why it matters: It's a sign of how reluctant companies have been to hire amid ongoing economic uncertainty over tariffs and policy. ? By the numbers: 13.4% of unemployed Americans in July were "new labor force entrants," those looking for jobs with no prior work experience, including new high school and college graduates. It's the highest number since 1988, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Between the lines: The frozen hiring market is a "double-whammy" for Gen Z, says John O'Trakoun, an economist at the Richmond Fed who did the research. Many of these job hunters entered college at the height of pandemic lockdowns.

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?‍? Hottest — and coolest — job markets

Data: BLS. Map: Axios Visuals The job market is hotter than average in some states but cooler in others, Alex Fitzpatrick writes from new data. South Dakota (1.9% unemployment), North Dakota (2.5%) and Vermont (2.6%) had last month's lowest unemployment rates, based on preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers. Washington, D.C. (6%), California (5.5%) and Nevada (5.4%) had the highest. ?? Compare those figures to the national unemployment rate of 4.2%. ? California also had the only statistically significant month-to-month jump in unemployment among states, rising 0.1 percentage points from June. The San Francisco Chronicle points to a faltering tech industry as part of the Golden State's problem, especially for younger workers. Go deeper.

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Unions aren’t just good for workers—they also benefit communities and democracy

Summary: Rebuilding worker power by strengthening unions is not just good policy—it is a democratic imperative in the face of authoritarian backsliding.

https://www.epi.org/publication/unions-arent-just-good-for-workers-they-also-benefit-communities-and-democracy/?

Metro areas signal what’s at stake for Black Americans under Trump’s anti-equity agenda

The concentration of Black Americans in urban areas is one of the legacies of the Great Migration—the period between 1916 and 1970 when 6 million Black Americans fled the violence and economic oppression of the rural South in search of safety and better job opportunities in cities throughout the Northeast, Midwest, and West.

https://www.epi.org/publication/a-tale-of-10-cities-metro-areas-signal-whats-at-stake-for-black-americans-under-trumps-anti-equity-agenda/?

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Employees start "job-hugging"

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Instead of job-hopping, employees are now "job-hugging" — holding tight to their current employer, Axios' Emily Peck writes. Why it matters: The labor market is grim — and hiring has stalled. With fewer options, workers are planning to stick with their current employers, regardless of job satisfaction. The change can mean fewer opportunities for up-and-comers inside organizations, notes consulting firm Korn Ferry, which named the trend. ? Zoom in: The past three months saw the weakest job creation in the U.S. — outside of the pandemic — since 2010 in the wake of the global financial crisis. The white-collar employment picture is particularly bleak. Employment in professional and business services has steadily declined this year, after surging in the post-pandemic era. Employees are reporting high levels of job anxiety. There's also increasing fear that AI will come for their jobs. ? Between the lines: Companies no longer have to bend over backward to hang on to workers with benefits, promotions or raises. Instead, employers can push for workers to return to the office and put in longer hours.

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? Wonks in the wilderness

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Their words create trillion-dollar swings in markets. Their actions can determine the fates of nations. But among the central bankers who gathered in Jackson Hole, Wyo., last week, there was a palpable sense that their moment at the helm of the world economy may have passed, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin reports. The big picture: Bedrock concepts that economists hold dear — of central bank independence, reliable data collection, and technocratic decision-making — are under threat in ways that have left the global central banking community discombobulated. ? Zoom in: In formal proceedings at the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium this weekend, there were only the subtlest of references to the Trump administration's actions that throw Fed independence and government economic data into doubt. But in whispered private conversations against the stunning backdrop of the Grand Tetons, there was melancholy — a fear that the war for empiricism and independence may already be lost. ? Between the lines: President Trump's attacks on the Fed have stirred a sense that U.S. economic policymaking is becoming more overtly partisan and less technically rigorous than has been seen in modern times. The emerging market central bankers who attend the symposium, hoping to make their countries' economic governance more like the U.S., instead see the U.S. becoming more like them. Read on.

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? AI eats entry-level jobs

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

AI is dimming job prospects for less-experienced workers, according to a first-of-its-kind Stanford study. Why it matters: There's been significant anecdotal evidence of an AI-related slowdown in hiring for certain jobs. New data shows a real and measurable impact for entry-level workers, Axios' Ina Fried writes. Using ADP payroll data, Stanford researchers found that employment for younger workers (ages 22–25) in AI-impacted jobs — like software development and customer support — has dropped by 16% since late 2022. What's notable is the speed with which the job impact has gone from theoretical to real and significant. "This is the fastest, broadest change that I've seen," economist and Stanford professor Erik Brynjolfsson told Axios, noting the only comparable shift was the one to remote work during the pandemic. The other side: Older workers and those in other fields aren't seeing a measurable hit to job prospects. Keep reading ...

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Fed's go-to inflation gauge creeps higher as trade war ramps up

An indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve showed mixed progress on inflation in July: overall numbers held steady, but a key gauge heated up for the fourth straight month.

https://www.axios.com/2025/08/29/inflation-fed-pce-july?

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?? American Dream dims

Data: WSJ/NORC poll. Chart: Axios Visuals Almost 70% of U.S. adults think the American dream — or the idea that hard work pays off — doesn't hold true in 2025, Axios' Josephine Walker writes from a new Wall Street Journal/NORC poll. That's the highest percentage in almost 15 years of surveys. ? By the numbers: Only 25% of Americans believe they have a good chance of improving their standard of living, a record low in surveys dating back to 1987. 56% said they had little or no confidence they could buy a home if they wanted to. ? Zoom in: The economic pessimism spanned demographics — men and women, older and younger adults, and those with a household income more and less than $100,000. Republicans were less pessimistic than Democrats, a reflection of the long-standing trend of voters feeling more confident when their party controls the White House. About 55% of Republican respondents and 90% of Democrats had a negative outlook on prospects for themselves and their children. The bottom line: For the vast majority of Americans, the belief that their kids will be better off than they are no longer holds. Explore the data ... Gift link to WSJ story.

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Job market jitters

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Axios Visuals There are now more unemployed Americans than job openings for the first time in four years, according to data out today. Why it matters: Today's release adds to the evidence that the labor market could use some help, as the Fed weighs cutting interest rates on Sept. 17, Axios Macro's Neil Irwin writes. ? Flashback: At the height of the post-pandemic job market boom, in spring 2022, there were more than two job openings for every unemployed person. Unemployment is still low at 4.2%, but jobs are drying up. "This is yet another data point underscoring how this job market is frozen, and it's difficult for anyone to get a job right now," wrote Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. Go deeper.

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ConocoPhillips says it will lay off up to 25% of its workforce, impacting thousands of jobs

NEW YORK (AP) — Oil giant ConocoPhillips is planning to lay off up to a quarter of its workforce, amounting to thousands of jobs, as part of broader efforts from the company to cut costs.

https://apnews.com/article/conocophillips-layoffs-job-cuts-2025-f35528aad7d8c02895853d73bb12842e?

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US hiring stalls with employers reluctant to expand in an economy grown increasingly erratic

WASHINGTON (AP) — The American job market, a pillar of U.S. economic strength since the pandemic, is crumbling under the weight of President Donald Trump’s erratic economic policies.

https://apnews.com/article/jobs-economy-unemployment-trump-firing-f686eab61f7d6b702ca10b12b0250498?

Unions raise wages. Tariffs don’t

Why Trump’s trade policy won’t help U.S. workers

https://www.epi.org/publication/unions-raise-wages-tariffs-dont-why-trumps-trade-policy-wont-help-u-s-workers/?

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Labor market craters

Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios This summer marked a turning point for the U.S. economy, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes, with the days of boom-like jobs numbers appearing firmly in the past. ? Employers are pulling back as they adjust to the Trump economy's heightened uncertainty, costlier foreign goods and diminished labor supply amid immigration crackdowns. Driving the news: Today's jobs data confirmed that the weak hiring in last month's report was more than a head-fake. ? The economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, with health care among the few sectors showing increasing employment. ⚠️ Once again, the real stunner came in the revisions, which showed the economy's 53-month job growth streak ended in May. ? Employers shed 13,000 jobs in June, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the first employment contraction since December 2020. The debate among economic policymakers is why hiring is so lackluster: less demand for workers, less supply of them or a combination. ? Harsher immigration policy is fueling huge shifts in population trends, making it harder to know how many new workers we need for a steady unemployment rate. ? For that reason, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell says he's more closely watching the unemployment rate. It edged up by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3% in August, the highest level since 2021. Of those unemployed, roughly 26% have been jobless for six months or longer — the largest share since February 2022. The other side: National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett tried to blame the weak jobs numbers on the BLS. ? "One of the things we know is that they've been really, at BLS, struggling with bad response rates," Hassett said on Fox News. Go deeper.

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? Manufacturing goes in wrong direction

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

America's blue-collar workforce is shrinking, as President Trump's policies hit the same sectors he vowed to reinvigorate, Axios' Courtenay Brown reports. Why it matters: Hiring is stalling out nearly across the board amid drastic shifts in trade and immigration policies. But perhaps nowhere is it more apparent than in the labor sectors that expected a Trump-era boost. ? By the numbers: The labor market's summer hiring drought was particularly painful for industrial parts of the economy. The "manufacturing recession" — underway for years — got uglier. The sector lost 12,000 jobs in August, the fourth consecutive month of shrinking employment. The industry had 78,000 fewer workers last month, relative to the same period a year ago. Construction shed jobs for the third straight month. Wholesale trade — a sector that includes transportation, warehouse staff and material handlers — has lost 32,000 workers since May. On the demand side: Tariffs raise the cost of foreign-made inputs needed to assemble goods. That might crimp demand, which might force manufacturers to slash workers. "We've implemented our second price increase," an electric equipment manufacturer said in the Institute for Supply Management's monthly survey, released this week. "'Made in the USA' has become even more difficult due to tariffs on many components. ... In two rounds of layoffs, we have let go of about 15 percent of our U.S. workforce." On the supply side: Even if employers have the appetite to bring on staff, they can't hire workers who are not available. The immigration crackdown is impacting sectors that rely more heavily on those workers. ? What to watch: "Manufacturing and construction tend to be the first sectors hit when the economy slows, so the blue-collar downturn serves as a warning for the rest of the labor market unless things improve soon," economic data analyst Joey Politano, who writes the Apricitas Economics newsletter, tells Axios.

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? Young America's economic crisis

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Axios Visuals Younger adults are facing the worst labor market shock in years — one far more acute than the rest of the population, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes. Why it matters: There's no denying the misery for young people who can't find work. It might stunt their career growth for decades to come. Threat level: What's holding back hiring is a mix of fleeting, cyclical factors — economic uncertainty as a result of President Trump's trade policies, for instance, or high interest rates. Other factors, like the uptake of AI eliminating entry-level positions, are likely structural. The result might be a difficult hiring environment for younger people for the foreseeable future. Young but less-educated Americans also feel the pinch. The sluggish pace of job gains is widespread across the economy, including in industries that, in normal times, would be the most likely to hire them. ? Zoom in: The unemployment rate among 16- to 24-year-olds was 10.5% in August, the highest since the aftermath of COVID. Excluding that period, youth unemployment has not been this high since 2016. "There is a pile-up of young people looking for work," says Guy Berger, the director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute. "The risk is a lost generation of young people who took a long time to find work." ? What to watch: Consumers see just a 45% chance, on average, of finding a new job if their current position was eliminated, according to a New York Fed survey — the slimmest chance in data back to 2013.