The Economy

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U.S. economy adds 147,000 jobs in June, defying slowdown expectations

The U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

https://www.axios.com/2025/07/03/june-jobs-unemployment-trump-tariffs?

EPI president Heidi Shierholz denounces passage of GOP budget bill

Congress just passed one of the most destructive economic bills in generations. The Republican budget will gut Medicaid, slash food aid for families, and shutter rural hospitals—just to give tax breaks that will go overwhelmingly to the wealthy. It is a staggering upward redistribution of income.

https://www.epi.org/press/epi-president-heidi-shierholz-denounces-passage-of-gop-budget-bill/?

The radical Republican budget bill steals from the poor to give tax cuts to the rich

Yesterday, the Senate passed a budget bill that will create a weaker and more unequal U.S. economy. It is even more radical than the House version, with deeper Medicaid cuts that will destroy rural hospitals and strain state budgets, while adding nearly $4 trillion to the federal deficit. The House should reject this legislation and start from scratch. The stakes couldn’t be higher—the bill being rushed to passage will do grave damage to the economy and the well-being of U.S. families for years to come.

https://www.epi.org/blog/the-radical-republican-budget-bill-steals-from-the-poor-to-give-tax-cuts-to-the-rich/?

More from EPI on the Republican budget bill

Republicans are trying to hide just how much their budget bill costs 

 

The Republican budget bill would eliminate nearly six million jobs by unleashing Trump’s radical mass deportation agenda 

 

House Republican budget bill gives Trump $185 billion for his mass deportation agenda 

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Two labor markets

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Americans live in two economic realities: Those with a job are likely to remain employed, but those without one are likely to stay unemployed. Why it matters: Welcome to the low-hire, low-fire labor market. Private-sector layoffs are at historic lows, but that masks a dreadful outlook for unemployed workers or those unhappy with their current positions, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes. ? Zoom in: The labor market surprised in June with a better-than-expected payroll gain of 147,000, the government said Thursday. But 85% of those job gains came in just two sectors, according to calculations by Mike Konczal, a former Biden economic official: education and health care. Hiring in other sectors — including professional and business services, a catch-all category for white collar jobs — was little changed, the government said. Zoom out: That continues the "frozen job market" trend that has plagued the economy in recent years. The trend is being exacerbated by the rise of AI, as employers experiment with how to make their workforces more productive. ? Between the lines: Separate data released last week showed the number of layoffs fell by 188,000 in May, hovering above multi-decade lows. But the number of people hired into new jobs also fell by 112,000, a rate significantly below its pre-pandemic levels. The number of workers continuing to collect unemployment benefits is at the highest level since 2021, a sign that it is taking jobless workers longer to find a job. The bottom line: If you look only at how many Americans are losing their jobs, this appears to be a pretty terrific labor market. If you look only at how many are being hired for new jobs, it is the weakest in years. The question ahead is how it gets unstuck — with a pick-up in hiring, or a pick-up in layoffs.

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Jensen vs. Dario: "There will be more jobs"

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, bristling at Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's warning of a looming white-collar apocalypse, tells us that artificial intelligence will create vastly more and superior jobs, Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.

• Why it matters: The Huang vs. Amodei debate, playing out in exclusive interviews with us, captures a deep divide among AI experts over America's job market in a highly automated world.

Both of them agree we'll soon have AI that's smarter than humans — and will radically reshape how people work and companies operate.

? Zoom in: Amodei told us AI could wipe out half of entry-level white-collar jobs in a few years. His comments sparked weeks of national debate over the dangers of fast and furious technological advancements in AI.

• Huang (pronounced wong) — whose company last week became the most valuable in history, worth $4 trillion — responded: "I don't know why AI companies are trying to scare us. We should advance the technology safely just as we advance cars safely. ... But scaring people goes too far."
• Noting Amodei and other AI leaders issuing warnings are "really, really consequential and smart people," Huang said he was eager to "offer a counter-view," based on "all the evidence of history."

"If we have no new ideas," Huang began, "and the work that we're doing is precisely all that needs to be done ... and no more than what humanity will ever need, then when we become more productive, [Amodei's warning would be] absolutely correct — we will need fewer people doing that work."

• "However, if you now look at history and you ask yourself: 'Do I have more ideas so that, if I were to be more productive, I could do more?' Then, you would describe a condition that reflects human history — that we have become more productive over time."

"We've become more productive raising crops," Huang continued, noting that it's not like all of a sudden, as a result of mechanization, "everybody ran out of work."

• "Everyone's jobs will change," he said. "Some jobs will be unnecessary. Some people will lose jobs. But many new jobs will be created. ... The world will be more productive. There will be higher GDP [gross domestic product, or total national output]. There will be more jobs. But every job will be augmented by AI."

In response to Huang's comments, Jack Clark, co-founder and head of policy at Anthropic, told us: "Starting a conversation about the impact of AI on entry-level jobs is a matter of pragmatism. As producers of this technology, we have an obligation to be transparent and clear-eyed about AI's potential societal and economic impacts."

• "We should be discussing these issues in the open and preparing for them as needed — just like we should be discussing and preparing for its transformative benefits."

?️ The big picture: Huang, 62, started Nvidia 30+ years ago — back in 1993, before the dotcom bubble. The former engineer was relatively anonymous when Nvidia's chips were used for graphics for computer gaming.

• Now, he's one of the world's leading faces of a technology that is just bursting into widespread public consciousness.

During last week's visit to D.C. from his headquarters in Silicon Valley, Huang met with President Trump at the White House, and sat down with senators on Capitol Hill. Huang then headed straight for Beijing, where today he'll start meeting with Chinese officials.

• ⬇️ Column continues below.

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? Part 2: Jensen Huang's prescription

For knowledge workers who want to prepare and protect themselves, Jensen Huang recommends learning to use AI "to transform the way you work" — exactly the advice we've given every person who works at Axios, Jim and Mike continue.

• "You might go forward 10 years from now, " Huang said, "and just realize: The actual thing I was doing before that I considered to be my job, I don't do anymore. But I still have a great job — in fact, even better than before. The things that I'm doing at my job are different, because AI is helping me do a lot of it. But I'm doing a lot more meaningful things."

? Case in point: We asked Huang about one of the most vivid examples of AI-endangered workers — long-haul truckers, who could be largely supplanted by self-driving technology.

• Many long-haul truckers, he postulated, "really don't love their job. They would love if they were short-haul truckers who were able to go to sleep at night with their family. They would go to their jobs. And between the cities, the truck would drive by itself. That would improve the quality of life of many long-haul truckers."

Zoom out: Huang loves to talk about a "new industrial revolution" where AI benefits people who work with their hands to build data centers and create other AI infrastructure — including the chips that last week gave Nvidia a market capitalization of $4 trillion (and made Huang worth $144 billion, eclipsing Warren Buffett).

• Leading a show-and-tell in Nvidia's kitchen in downtown Washington, Huang pointed to a 70-pound Nvidia system that, when stacked in racks, helps power AI models. "It takes the love of manufacturing to build these things," he said. "There's just so much admiration for intellectual work in the United States. We need heroes who are making things."

? Behind the scenes: Huang, who was born in Taiwan, doesn't wear a watch. When we said we needed to wrap up the interview, he pulled up the sleeve of his trademark leather jacket to show off his bare wrist. He also keeps his phone on silent — the better to focus on the moment.

• IBM pioneer "Thomas Watson didn't care about the time, nor did Einstein care about the time," he explained. "The only time is right now. ... Because I'm here with you."

The bottom line: "The AI revolution," Huang told us, "is both an incredible technology — and the beginning of a whole new industrial reset."

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The tariff-driven inflation that economists feared begins to emerge

WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation rose last month to its highest level since February as President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs push up the cost of everything from groceries and clothes to furniture and appliances.

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-trump-fed-powell-prices-8842d6ebca9d1870983e678e578d2091?

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? Beef gets pricier

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED. Chart: Axios Visuals Beef prices are at record highs, and industry experts tell Axios they could stay that way into 2026 and beyond. Why it matters: Meat's high price tag is squeezing grocery budgets at the height of grilling season, Axios' Kelly Tyko reports. ? By the numbers: Ground beef averaged $6.12 a pound in June, up nearly 12% from a year ago, according to federal data released this week. Steak prices jumped 8% year-over-year, per the latest Consumer Price Index. America's beef supply chain is being strained from multiple angles. A multi-year drought shrank cattle herds, and global imports are under threat — but consumer demand remains strong. The number of farms in the U.S., including ranches, declined by 7%, or 141,733 farms, between 2017 and 2022, the latest Census of Agriculture notes ? This spring, Waffle House and Denny's dropped egg surcharges as egg prices fell. Go deeper.

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? Where the jobs are

Raleigh skyline. Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios

If you're a new grad, America's biggest cities aren't the best ones to find your first job. "In one of the toughest markets for entry-level jobs in years, several second-tier cities rise above the pack for their strong hiring, decent salaries and affordability," The Wall Street Journal reports from a new study by payroll-services provider ADP (gift link). ? Top 5 cities for job hunters: Raleigh, N.C. Milwaukee Baltimore Austin Birmingham, Ala. The study also zeroed in on metro areas with the lowest hiring rates. The bottom four were Virginia Beach, Va., Salt Lake City, Riverside, Calif., and Hartford, Conn. Explore the data.

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?Charted: Scoop shock

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED. Chart: Axios Visuals It's National Ice Cream Day, and prices for America's go-to frozen treat are hitting new highs, Axios' Kelly Tyko writes from federal data. The price of a half-gallon is up nearly 33% since June 2021. Soaring ingredient costs, extreme weather and hot demand are fueling the rise. Chocolate-based flavors have been hit by a surge in global cocoa prices, which have increased 150% in the last 12 months. Go deeper: Where you can get deals on ice cream today.

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? America's economic mood gap

Data: Morning Consult. Chart: Axios Visuals Higher-earning Americans are feeling pretty good these days. But sentiment among those at the bottom is stagnating at much lower levels, Axios' Emily Peck writes. Why it matters: The difference in sentiment between the top and bottom income groups is the widest since Morning Consult began tracking the data in 2018. Driving the groups apart: ? The stock market: The S&P 500 has bounced back — and then some — from its April "Liberation Day" lows. A rising 401(k) drives spirits higher. But the vast majority of low-income adults don't have money invested in stocks. ? Home values: Higher house prices make homeowners feel great — a high Zestimate is a mood booster. That does nothing for renters, except make them feel locked out of the American dream. ?‍♀️ The job market: While overall unemployment still seems low, lower-earning adults are increasingly reporting a loss of pay or income in Morning Consult data, says chief economist John Leer.

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? The only deal Wall Street cares about

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Joshua Roberts/Getty Images

The stock market barely moved after the trade deal with Japan. Market sources tell Axios that's the new investor playbook for tariff headlines: Ignore them, unless it's about China. Why it matters: The market, which is up 27% since the early April lows, has already priced in trade deals. The only thing that could change that is a negative development in the U.S.-China trade relationship, Axios' Madison Mills writes. ? Zoom in: The tariff rate on China matters because companies in the stock market are heavily exposed to China as both a supplier and consumer. Annual S&P 500 revenue from China sits at $1.2 trillion, according to Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk. That's roughly four times the U.S. trade deficit with China. "Unless the China stuff gets really ugly, I think the market will treat these as minor hiccups and potential 'buy the dips,'" Stuart Kaiser, head of U.S. equity strategy at Citi, told Axios.

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Unauthorized immigrants and the economy

Immigration is among the most important economic and political issues and a main topic of discourse and debate among policymakers and the public. But misperceptions persist about many fundamental aspects of this crucial topic, such as:

https://www.epi.org/publication/unauthorized-immigrants/?

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? Econ mega-week

The U.S. economy is about to enter one of the busiest weeks economists have ever seen, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes.

• GDP: The economy shrank in the first quarter because of tariffs, even as underlying figures pointed to healthy activity. Expect the opposite dynamic in the Q2 GDP report out Wednesday.
• Jobs: New data will be released on job vacancies, layoffs and quits (Tuesday) and private sector hiring (Wednesday) — all leading up to the all-important July government payroll report (Friday).
• Inflation: The Fed, under immense pressure from the White House to cut interest rates, is widely expected to keep rates steady on Wednesday. The central bank's preferred measure of inflation, alongside spending and income figures, will come out Thursday.

? Between the lines: It's a huge week for Trump's trade policy, with the U.S. and China holding a third round of high-level trade talks in Stockholm, ending on Wednesday.

• On Thursday, oral arguments will begin in the court case examining whether many of Trump's tariffs are legal.
• Friday is Aug. 1 — the date those tariffs are scheduled to surge higher for countries without trade deals.

Keep reading.

? Car buyers race price hikes

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Middle-income Americans have accelerated their car-buying timelines amid worries about rising prices, Axios' Joann Muller writes from new research by Santander. Why it matters: On-again, off-again tariffs, along with other policy shifts in Washington, are confounding both auto companies and car buyers. But many consumers are deciding there's no point in putting off their car-buying decisions any longer. ?️ Zoom in: Higher prices haven't scared consumers off — if anything, they've motivated buyers to act now. 55% are now considering buying in the year ahead, up from 47% in Q1. It's the first time in two years that prospective buyers outnumber those delaying a purchase. The big picture: Industry sales have been on a roller coaster since President Trump launched his trade war against friends and foes alike. Vehicle sales surged in early 2025 as consumers raced to pre-empt tariffs and policy-driven price increases. As Trump began waffling on his trade policies, demand returned to normal. Now, with some of the uncertainty lifting, there's renewed interest among consumers to act fast.

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Pets

Animal rescues and shelters across the US are reporting sharp increases in surrendered pets. Several of those organizations have told CNN that financial hardship is at the root of those owners’ decisions. The cost of owning a pet — food, toys, grooming, vet visits, etc. — has gone up in recent years. Some tariff-sensitive goods are expected to be even pricier in the months to come. Many pet owners are also facing a deterioration in financial stability, including the rising cost of living, debt burdens, an unexpected (human or animal) medical event or a job loss. “It just breaks us to see people cry that they have to give up their animal because they have to move somewhere that’s more affordable, and that place that’s more affordable for them doesn’t allow animals,” said Megan Larson, intake manager at Ruff Start Rescue in Minnesota. “This is a very devastating decision that these people are forced to make. People don’t want to do this.”

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? CEO gig economy

Data: Challenger, Gray & Christmas; Chart: Axios Visuals It's not just college kids standing in line for a few extra bucks these days — there's a sudden surge in CEOs taking on entire companies for the short term, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes from a new survey out today. Why it matters: Dipping in and out of the C-suite is quickly becoming the next workplace revolution after five years of constant changes on where we work, how we do our jobs and whether humans are even needed anymore. ? More executives "are embracing the increasingly attractive option of short-term CEO roles, essentially participating in a 'CEO gig economy,'" the firm's Andy Challenger said in a statement. "Many of these leaders, some of whom stepped away after guiding organizations through the pandemic, are now returning on their own terms."

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US job openings fell to 7.4 million last month as job market continues to cool

The Labor Department reported Tuesday that job openings in June were down from 7.7 million in May and were about what forecasters had expected.

https://apnews.com/article/job-openings-economy-unemployment-trump-tariffs-e947a345b65792e7ecde0b52947c2ee7?

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Big rebound in GDP masks hidden weakness in the US economy

The US economy expanded sharply in the second quarter as businesses dialed back on imports after stocking up earlier in the year to get ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. But a look under the hood shows an economy that’s sputtering.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/30/economy/us-gdp-q2?

Along with a strong second quarter rebound for the US economy, some red flags

The U.S. economy expanded at a surprising 3% annual pace from April through June, bouncing back at least temporarily from a first-quarter drop that reflected disruptions arising from President Donald Trump’s trade wars. The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that America gross domestic product — the nation’s output of goods and services — rebounded after falling at a 0.5% clip from January through March. Read More.

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Consumer spending heated up a bit last month – but so did inflation

US consumers continued to spend in June, powering the economy in the process, despite tariff-related price hikes becoming more present on store shelves and online.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/31/economy/us-pce-consumer-spending-inflation-june?

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Wall Street slumps and bond yields sink following weak hiring numbers and new tariffs

NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks slumped in afternoon trading on Wall Street Friday and Treasury yields fell sharply after the government reported a sharp slowdown in hiring last month.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-asia-wall-street-5bf5640b85f63cf7db292d0aaf26e97a?

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? Bad jobs vibes, confirmed

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The alarming jobs report out today confirmed what Americans have been saying all year: The labor market isn't good, Axios' Emily Peck writes. ? The big picture: The so-called vibecession — driven by consumer surveys and some "soft" data indicators — predicted a recession that never came. But this latest report signals people are in touch with reality — at least when it comes to the job market. Americans know a stinker when they're living with it. ?️ Zoom out: Tales of professionals' struggles to land jobs have been growing. CEOs have been talking about workers being replaceable all year — a sign that they're not in desperate need of employees. Workers' pay expectations have been diminishing, too. Reality check: If you have a job, you're probably relatively OK — though it's become difficult to job hop. Layoffs are still relatively low. Screenshot: @realDonaldTrump/Truth Social ? JUST IN: President Trump said he would fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief this afternoon, hours after the independent government agency reported weak jobs numbers. Keep reading. Go deeper: Jobs report makes potent case for the Fed to cut interest rates, by Axios' Neil Irwin.

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Summer Jobs Slowdown

US employers added fewer-than-expected nonfarm jobs in July at 73,000, while the country's unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1% as expected, per government data released yesterday. Meanwhile, the number of jobs added in May and June was downgraded from over 140,000 jobs per month to fewer than 20,000 per month, indicating the labor market is weaker than previously thought.    The jobs added in July is lower than economists' estimates of a gain of 100,000 but higher than the 19,000 and 14,000 downwardly revised jobs in May and June, respectively. Analysts say several headwinds, including President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on dozens of trading partners and stricter immigration policies, have increased business uncertainty, leading to cautious hiring amid federal workforce reductions. Trump yesterday also ordered the firing of the Senate-confirmed Department of Labor official who oversees the monthly jobs report, alleging the figures were manipulated (though there is no evidence supporting the claim). See why job numbers change here.   Most of the jobs in July were added in healthcare (55,000), ambulatory healthcare services (34,000), and hospitals (16,000). Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month, as expected, and 3.9% year over year, slightly higher than expected. See all data here.

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?️ Stagflation fears are back

Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios

Inflation is running hotter, the job market is weakening, and economists warn both may worsen in the months ahead, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes. Why it matters: The word "stagflation" revives miserable memories of the 1970s — when Americans faced higher prices and few job opportunities. ? The big picture: This was the week mainstream economists were vindicated. Predictions of weaker growth and more persistent inflation — the "stag" and the "flation" — looked far-fetched, until now. The "stag": The economy added just 73,000 jobs last month, while historic downward revisions suggested the labor market added almost no jobs at all the previous two months. Now consider the other indicators released in the past week: ? GDP: The economy expanded at a 3% annualized rate in the second quarter, boosted by the reversal of unprecedented importing activity in the first quarter. Dig into the report and the growth snapshot looks worse. ? Inflation: The Fed's go-to inflation measure rose in the final two months of the second quarter, despite moderating underlying growth. ? For the record: "We've been here before when there was large-scale doom-mongering ... about the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and about the President's tariffs on China in the first term," top White House economist Stephen Miran told Axios. The "doom-mongering" turned out to be wrong, Miran said. Keep reading.

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Blue-collar revenge

Photo illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios. Photo: Corbis Historical/Getty Images

? AI is supposed to displace millions of workers in the coming years. But when your toilet won't flush at 2 a.m., you're not going to call ChatGPT, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes. Why it matters: The reshaping of the American economy promises to offer a kind of revenge for the blue-collar laborer, as white-collar workers become largely dispensable, but the need for skilled trades only grows. ? The backstory: This story was inspired by an Axios list this week of the 10 jobs that are most- and least-threatened by AI, based on Microsoft research. (Our Top 10 ... Full list.) ? The irony: Who's going to run the wiring for all these AI data centers? Or put the roof on the building. ?️ It's become a Trump administration economic talking point: Blue-collar wages are rising faster now than at the start of any other administration going back to Nixon. The intrigue: There's already a labor shortage in many of these blue-collar professions, one that AI will, ironically, only make worse. Training is the answer. But that requires a large-scale, national effort —not just for up-and-coming students, but for mid-career folks forced into a pivot.

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Blue-collar revenge

Photo illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios. Photo: Corbis Historical/Getty Images

? AI is supposed to displace millions of workers in the coming years. But when your toilet won't flush at 2 a.m., you're not going to call ChatGPT, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes. Why it matters: The reshaping of the American economy promises to offer a kind of revenge for the blue-collar laborer, as white-collar workers become largely dispensable, but the need for skilled trades only grows. ? The backstory: This story was inspired by an Axios list this week of the 10 jobs that are most- and least-threatened by AI, based on Microsoft research. (Our Top 10 ... Full list.) ? The irony: Who's going to run the wiring for all these AI data centers? Or put the roof on the building. ?️ It's become a Trump administration economic talking point: Blue-collar wages are rising faster now than at the start of any other administration going back to Nixon. The intrigue: There's already a labor shortage in many of these blue-collar professions, one that AI will, ironically, only make worse. Training is the answer. But that requires a large-scale, national effort —not just for up-and-coming students, but for mid-career folks forced into a pivot.

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⚡ Power bills surge

Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Map: Alex Fitzpatrick/Axios Electricity costs are rising nationwide — and could get even higher for some with the explosion in data centers powering AI, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick writes. Why it matters: Surging power bills could stress many Americans' budgets as pretty much everything else gets more expensive, too. ? Zoom in: Electricity prices vary regionally and have many influences, from basic supply and demand to fuel rates and infrastructure costs. Yet many analysts point to power-hungry data centers as a driver of rising rates, up 6.5% between May 2024 and May 2025 nationally. That's partly because of data centers' immediate demand for energy, but also because grid operators are investing in new transmission lines and other equipment. Those costs are passed along to customers. Interactive map. ps:Well that's interesting! I got a letter from one of those power companies at the end of last year stating that our electric bills would be at least $100-150 less this year!! I said to them I'll believe it when I see it!!! Never received a reply!!!!! I wonder why??

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Jobs report

President Donald Trump plans to announce a new commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics over the next few days. He fired Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on Friday, shortly after the release of a weaker-than-expected jobs report that showed the US economy added just 73,000 jobs in July. The monthly totals for May and June were also revised down by a combined 258,000 jobs. Trump responded to the report on his social media site: “In my opinion, today’s Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.” In an appearance that aired on “Fox News Sunday,” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett defended Trump’s decision to fire McEntarfer, claiming the president “wants his own people there.” Yet Hassett did not provide any evidence that the report was incorrect. Whoever the president nominates to be the new commissioner will need to be confirmed by the Senate.