The Economy

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Trump vow to impose stiff tariffs at odds with anti-inflation campaign message, Dems say

President-elect Donald Trump’s announcement Monday that he would impose harsh tariffs on the United States’ closest trading partners will work against his pledge to bring down consumer prices, Democrats in Congress and economists are warning.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/11/26/dc/trump-vow-to-impose-stiff-tariffs-at-odds-with-anti-inflation-campaign-message-dems-say/?

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Layoffs

Cargill, the Minnesota-based food production behemoth, is laying off about 5% of its global workforce as food commodity prices drop. Cargill is America’s largest privately held company, according to Forbes, and is also the world’s largest agricultural commodities trader. In simple terms, Cargill is the middleman distributing grains, meat and other farm products around the world. It had profited heavily during the pandemic and its aftermath thanks to inflation and geopolitical turmoil throwing food prices into disarray. But now, grocery prices are dropping. In a statement to CNN, the company said the changes are part of “a long-term strategy” set earlier this year. Cargill has more than 160,000 employees, according to its 2024 report. That means there will be an estimated 8,000 job cuts.

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Cyber bonanza

$15.8 million every 60 seconds: That's how much US consumers spent in two hours on Monday night. It capped a holiday weekend spending spree that smashed previous records and became the biggest US online shopping day ever. ps:Wow considering that money was one of the "supposed" main things in voting?????

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Pushed out

Most employers know their companies can’t succeed unless they attract and retain good people. Sometimes, though, companies would like employees to quit — and not just the underperformers. They might even create conditions that make you want to leave.

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Job market warning signs

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios Warning signs lie beneath the surface of today's jobs numbers, Axios' Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin write. Robust headline job growth isn't telling the whole story: The number of people unemployed and the share not in the labor force both increased. ? Driving the news: 227,000 jobs were added in November. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4%. ? Reality check: The unemployment rate, while still historically low, increased to 4.2%. Roughly 193,000 workers dropped out of the labor force last month. ? All told, there were 355,000 fewer employed workers relative to October. Go deeper.

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US added a strong 227,000 jobs in November in bounce-back from October slowdown

WASHINGTON (AP) — America’s job market rebounded in November, adding 227,000 workers in a solid recovery from the previous month, when the effects of strikes and hurricanes had sharply diminished employers’ payrolls.

https://apnews.com/article/jobs-hiring-economy-inflation-unemployment-federal-reserve-bb2c2cf596ffe8b080c45e98cdaeebc4?

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? On economy, Dems are glum. Rs are sunny

Data: University of Michigan. Chart: Axios Visuals People's politics increasingly shape their views about the economy. If there was any doubt, the latest data from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey removed it, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes. Why it matters: Economists have long viewed consumer sentiment surveys as a way to gather new information about what's really going on in the economy. Maybe the mood of the public will tell you whether a recession is looming before anything shows up in the hard data. But it increasingly looks like people use survey questions about the economy to register their politics. ? Overall consumer sentiment ticked up to the highest level since April, with an index at 74, up from last month's 71.8. But that masks a stunning reversal in the partisan divide about the economy since Election Day. Democrats' outlook plunged from 93.1 in October to 48.7 in the preliminary December survey. The only previous times in the Michigan data that Democrats have been that gloomy about the outlook were in the 2008 financial crisis and the early months of the pandemic. Republicans' expectations have soared from 61.4 to 105.9. The last time Republicans were that optimistic was the last time President-elect Trump was in office, just before the pandemic hit, in early 2020. The bottom line: There have always been partisan divides in views on the economy. But they've become way more pronounced.

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? Exclusive: CEO sentiment gets Trump bump

Data: Business Roundtable. Chart: Axios Visuals Confidence among America's top chief executives is soaring after Trump's re-election, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes from the Business Roundtable's latest economic outlook index. Why it matters: CEOs have high hopes the former president will usher in an era of low taxes and regulations. Mainstream economists warn the economy will take a hit from some of Trump's proposals, but CEOs see a brighter outlook for their industries in the months ahead. The index — first seen by Axios — jumped 12 points from last quarter to the highest level in more than two years. Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins, who chairs the Business Roundtable, said in a statement that top executives feel "energized," with Washington set to "consider measures that can protect and strengthen tax reform, enable a sensible regulatory environment, and drive investment and job creation."

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Biden says he was 'stupid' not to put his name on pandemic relief checks President Joe Biden said Tuesday he was “stupid” not to put his own name on pandemic relief checks in 2021, noting that Donald Trump had done so in 2020 and likely got credit for helping people out through this simple, effective act of branding. Biden did the second-guessing as he delivered a speech at the Brookings Institution defending his economic record.  Read more.

What to know: Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris largely failed to convince the American public of the strength of the economy. The addition of 16 million jobs, funding for infrastructure, new factories and investments in renewable energy were not enough to overcome public exhaustion over inflation, which spiked in 2022 and left many households coping with elevated grocery, gasoline and housing costs.   More than 6 in 10 voters in November’s election described the economy as “poor” or “not so good,” according to AP VoteCast, an extensive survey of the electorate. Trump won nearly 7 in 10 of the voters who felt the economy was in bad shape.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Trump says he’ll pick Andrew Ferguson head of FTC and Kimberly Guilfoyle as ambassador to Greece   Florida lawmaker’s party switch increases Republican supermajority in the House   For now, ‘Dreamers’ will be shut out of the health care marketplace in 19 states   DeSantis appointee says he won’t help his elected replacement take office   Making a $1B investment in the US? Trump pledges expedited permits — but there are hurdles   McConnell falls and sprains wrist after GOP luncheon, colleague says he is ‘fine’

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Grocery prices

The cost of grocery store items in November was a bit more painful than they have been for a while. Americans paid 22% more for groceries last month compared to when Donald Trump left office in January 2021, according to the latest Consumer Price Index data released earlier this week. And, compared to February 2020, before the pandemic, Americans paid 27% more for groceries in November. The president-elect on Thursday said Americans are "going to be affording their groceries very soon" but also admitted that might be very hard to achieve. Even if Trump helps improve supply chain issues, analysts say other policies he's pledged to enact, including broad-based tariffs and mass deportations of migrants who entered the country illegally, risk raising food prices substantially.

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Americans end 2024 with grim economic outlook, but Republicans are optimistic for 2025: AP-NORC poll

WASHINGTON (AP) — The unemployment rate is healthy and the stock market is up, but Democrats are feeling more pessimistic about the U.S. economy after Donald Trump’s election victory, according to a new poll.

https://apnews.com/article/economy-trump-biden-election-poll-39af2a837fc35173e13dd0e5d5e5d471?

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? Exclusive: Young America's wealth boom

Data: Treasury Department. Chart: Axios Visuals Americans under 40 are richer than ever — but still feel "an increasing sense of economic fragility," according to detailed new research released by the Treasury Department this morning. Why it matters: Disaffection and despair, especially among young men, are on the rise — and economic factors are playing an important role in that phenomenon, Axios' Felix Salmon writes. The big picture: The report points to "expanded education, less discriminatory workplaces, cheaper goods, and more household wealth" as examples of how young Americans' lives are improving. For Americans between 25 and 39, median wealth hit $80,500 in 2022, the Treasury Department calculates — up from just $23,750 in 2010. And that's in 2023 dollars, after accounting for inflation. ? Reality check: While wealth was turbocharged by the stimulus checks and roaring bull market following the 2020 pandemic, careers were not. Mentorship and on-the-job learning are much harder when working remotely. And demographic changes mean that younger workers are increasingly competing with their more experienced elders for desirable jobs. Costs have been rising faster than young Americans' incomes for education, childcare, healthcare, and — most pressingly — shelter.

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Labor productivity is key to U.S. GDP outperformance

Real GDP continues to grow faster in the U.S. than in other developed markets. The reason: Labor productivity in the U.S. has grown at 1.7% since 2019. In the Euro area, it has only grown 0.2% in the same period. Discover the impact of labor productivity on global growth in the 2025 Global Macro Outlook.

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? Charted: Shopping surge

Data: NRF and Prosper Insights December Holiday Consumer Survey. Chart: Axios Visuals Holiday shoppers are spending a record amount this year on gifts despite the shorter shopping season and inflation concerns, Axios' Sareen Habeshian reports. Total spending could jump between 2.5% and 3.5% during November and December compared to the same period last year, the National Retail Federation projects. ? Online shopping is a main driver of spending bumps. The top category: clothing and accessories. Toys, gift cards, books, video games, and personal care/beauty items followed. ? Between the lines: There's a recurring gap between what consumers do (spend now) and what they say (worried about the future economy), Axios Macro co-author Courtenay Brown reports.

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Americans still dour

Data: Gallup. Chart: Axios Visuals Just 19% of Americans believe the country is heading in the right direction as 2024 comes to a close, Axios' Dave Lawler writes from Gallup's latest monthly survey. Why it matters: Gallup's monthly data reveals a deep-seated pessimism among Americans about their country. You'd have to go back two decades to find a time when half of Americans felt the U.S. was on the right track. By the numbers: December's finding was down from 26% in October, largely because satisfaction among Democrats has fallen from 47% to 30% since the election. Only 9% of Republicans think the country is on the right track. That number jumped from 5% in October to 16% in November before sliding back down. ⚡ Flashback: Gallup's highest-ever finding (71%) came in February 1999 as the dot-com boom neared its peak, while the lowest (7%) came in October 2008, during the financial crisis.

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? States where workers are getting a raise

Data: National Employment Law Project. Map: Thomas Oide/Axios Millions of workers are getting a raise on Wednesday, when the minimum wage is set to rise across 21 states, and 48 cities and counties, Axios' Emily Peck writes. Why it matters: The increases lift the pay of more than 9.2 million people, per the Economic Policy Institute's tally. Millions more will benefit: When the wage floor rises, that means pay goes up for other workers at the bottom of the income ladder, too. ? Between the lines: Congress last raised the federal minimum wage in 2009 to its current $7.25 an hour. Since then, many states and localities have taken matters into their own hands. Now only 20 states adhere to the federal minimum. Go deeper: The National Employment Law Project has a list of the changes.

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Fed calls out Trump trade, immigration policies as inflation risks

Federal Reserve officials are worried that President-elect Trump's trade and immigration policies will stoke inflation, according to minutes from their latest policy meeting released on Wednesday.

https://www.axios.com/2025/01/08/fed-inflation-trump-interest-rates?

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Surging job market could prove costly for households, businesses as odds of quick rate cuts fade

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. job growth surged and unemployment fell last month, an unexpected show of strength that may prove costly to homebuyers and businesses who were counting on sharply lower interest rates to lower the cost of buying everything from refrigerators to homes.

https://apnews.com/article/jobs-unemployment-economy-federal-reserve-wages-398073325c467fb2c676042854f6309b?

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? Biden's jobs streak

Data: BLS. Chart: Axios Visuals The U.S. economy added 2.23 million jobs in 2024, including 256,000 in the final full month of Joe Biden's presidency. The big picture: There have been more jobs gained under Biden's term than under the full terms of former Presidents Trump, Obama, or George W. Bush, Axios' Dan Primack writes. ? By the numbers: Biden is now at +16.1 million, aided by the post-pandemic economic recovery. Trump oversaw 2.1 million job losses, although there were 6.6 million jobs added during his first three years in office (i.e., pre-pandemic years). Obama oversaw 7.1 million job gains, with losses at the beginning of his first term due to the Great Financial Crisis. Bush oversaw 5.2 million job gains. Bill Clinton has a stronger record than any of his successors, with a total of 23 million jobs added, although his annual average trails that of Biden.

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? Preemptive Trump approval

Data: The Harris Poll. Chart: Axios Visuals Most Americans — 53% — are already giving President-elect Trump credit for improving the economy, Axios' Sam Baker writes from a new survey by Axios and The Harris Poll. That's mainly driven by Republicans. 47% of independents and 34% of Democrats also give Trump some preemptive credit. ? Reality check: Trump hasn't made any economic policy since Election Day. And the quantifiable signs that the economy is good — low unemployment, inflation well below its peak and strong consumer spending — haven't materially changed since before Election Day.

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? America's "uncorked" economy

DAVOS, Switzerland — Brian Moynihan, chair and CEO of Bank of America, embraced the business optimism that ran rampant at the World Economic Forum this week — with the prospect of reduced regulation energizing attendees.

Inflation and interest rate decreases were getting "overwhelmed" by new rules from the Biden administration, Moynihan told Axios' Courtenay Brown and Mike Allen during an onstage conversation.

• "The question is: How much does [deregulation] uncork in the United States, and how much was being held back?" Moynihan said.

? Moynihan, who this month started his 15th year as BofA CEO, said negative economic effects of President Trump's proposed tariffs could be offset by the new regulatory regime.

• That's so long as those tariffs are in the 10-15% range, he added.

Watch a clip ...

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? Where the data-center jobs are

Data: U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators. (Includes computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting and related services.) Map: Alex Fitzpatrick/Axios Huge investments in AI data centers will ultimately lead to a lot of new jobs — mainly in the South and West, so far. ? By the numbers: The U.S. had about 420,000 data-center jobs at the beginning of last year, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick reports. But that number is already growing, and is poised to jump higher and higher as the U.S. doubles down on building domestic AI infrastructure. Arkansas, South Dakota and Georgia have seen the biggest increase in data-center employment over the past several years. Interactive version of the map, with state-by-state data.

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? America's biggest paychecks

Data: ADP. Map: Alex Fitzpatrick/Axios Looking for a fat paycheck? Consider jobs in Washington, D.C., Massachusetts or Alaska, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick writes. That trio is home to the country's highest median annual pay as of December 2024, per payroll firm ADP. ? By the numbers: Residents of the nation's capital are taking home a median $100,800 annually. It's $75,700 in Massachusetts and $70,000 in Alaska. New Mexico has the country's lowest average median pay ($40,300), followed by Mississippi ($46,000) and Arkansas ($49,800).

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? Shrinking pay raises

Data: Gartner Expected Budget Changes Survey. ( "Nominal" is under 4%.) Chart: Axios Visuals Companies are planning smaller raises this year, Axios' Emily Peck writes from a new survey of CFOs from Gartner. Why it matters: It's become harder to find a job — particularly in the white-collar world. Employers are far less worried about people quitting and don't need to do as much to get workers to stick around. ? By the numbers: The vast majority of employers, 94%, are still planning raises this year, according to the survey of 300 CFOs and finance executives. The amounts are just smaller.

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? How tariffs hit working class

Data: Progressive Policy Institute analysis of U.S. International Trade Commission. (Tariff rates may vary by country.) Chart: Axios Visuals President Trump ran on the Oprah-style promise of "you get a tax cut" — tipped service workers, retirees, overtime workers — and bills his tariffs as benefiting working-class Americans. Why it matters: His first tax pitch out the gate — broad tariff increases on America's top trading partners — could raise the cost of living for some of those people instead, Axios' Emily Peck writes. Trump struck deals yesterday to delay tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days. But the threat of tariffs remains a core Trump tactic. ? By the numbers: In an analysis out this morning, The Conference Board projects the combined impact of Trump's tariff proposals could increase inflation by 0.6 percentage points over one year. That's not near the sky-high inflation of 2022. But middle-income earners will feel it, says Dana Peterson, the group's chief economist. Lots of the tariffed items are things people can't do without — food, energy, clothing and auto parts. Lower- and middle-income consumers spend a higher percentage of their income on such items than wealthy people. The other side: Trump wrote Sunday on Truth Social that this "WILL BE THE GOLDEN AGE OF AMERICA! WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!). BUT ... IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE."