The Economy

[phkrause]

The economy grows, but paychecks lag

The US economy continues to grow, but American workers aren’t fully reaping the financial rewards. Data shows that the US labor share — the amount of income that goes to workers rather than to business profits — hit an all-time low this year. “It’s really telling you that workers have less and less power in this technology age and certainly in the AI age,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “The rewards, the financial gains, are mainly going to shareholders, to the owners of the capital and less and less to your typical W-2 worker.”

+ Read more: Workers are getting a shrinking slice of America’s economic pie

+ The bigger picture: AI could force 11 million US workers into new careers by 2035

[phkrause]

Exclusive: Jobless boom

Data: CivicScience. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Americans are optimistic AI will grow the economy — but not that it will create jobs in the process, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes from the first release of the new Axios-CivicScience AI Sentiment Index, out this morning. Why it matters: The AI boom is often criticized as a jobless one, which may explain why sentiment continues to run so negative on what is otherwise such a transformative technology. 💡 The new monthly Axios-CivicScience index tracks Americans' views across six measures: AI's effects on quality of life, society, jobs and economic growth, plus support for AI development and new data centers. By the numbers: October's net sentiment was 41.8 on a 0-100 scale, indicating broad negativity on AI. Of the six components, only economic growth had a positive sentiment score. 😨 Reality check: While economic growth net sentiment (positive responses minus negative responses) was +10, "create more jobs" sentiment was -30.4. That indicates a massive gap between what people think AI will do collectively and its individual impact.

[phkrause]

The working class is more diverse than ever before

The working class is a concept that carries tremendous political weight. But there is no official definition of what it is, and popular views of a mostly white working class are out of date.

https://www.epi.org/publication/the-working-class-is-more-diverse-than-ever-before/?

[phkrause]

Unemployment claims drop to 189,000, the fewest since mid-July

Fewer Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week as layoffs remain scarce and most workers enjoy job security. Read More.

[phkrause]

It's a "strong hire, low fire" market

Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios The job market looks remarkably strong, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes from new government data. Employers are hiring faster than almost any economist anticipated, unemployment remains historically low, and wages keep rising. 📈 By the numbers: Employment rose by 165,000 jobs last month — more than double the 65,000 that economists expected. The previous months' revisions also showed stronger hiring heading into fall than previously believed. Even as hiring fluctuated this year, the unemployment rate has stayed in a tight range of 4.1% to 4.3% since March. The pickup in hiring is particularly striking given how sharply job growth slowed over the summer. Employers have added an average of 137,000 jobs per month over the past three months. That's compared with a three-month average of just 28,000 from May through July. Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios Yes, but: Those working part-time — either because they couldn't find full-time jobs or had their hours cut — surged by 339,000 to 4.8 million last month. The bottom line: Democrats' midterm romp underscored Americans' frustration with the cost of living. Still, the job market offers room for optimism. Go deeper.

[phkrause]

Inflation, housing, jobs and corporate earnings will dominate the business calendar this week

Inflation updates dominate the calendar this week, along with a checkup on the housing market and more data on employment in the U.S. Read More.

[phkrause]

🧑‍💻 Job worries persist

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios Americans are getting more worried about rising unemployment, but they're also more confident that they could find another job if they needed to, Axios' Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown write from a new report. 📈 By the numbers: The perceived probability that unemployment will rise over the next year climbed to 45.3% in October, according to the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations. That's the highest since April 2020. Yes, but: People's perceived probability of finding another job if they lost their current position rose to 46.5%, the highest in about a year. 🤔 The mixed sentiment underscores the weirdness in today's labor market: Hiring is picking up and unemployment remains low, but it can be tough to find work. Explore the data ... Go deeper.