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Immigration: Where do Trump and Harris stand?

WASHINGTON — Immigration remains at the forefront of the 2024 presidential election, with both candidates taking a tougher stance than in the past on the flow of migrants into the United States.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/10/15/immigration-where-do-trump-and-harris-stand/?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Trump's power struggle scenario
 
Photo illustration of former President Trump with the U.S. Capitol Building duplicated in the background behind him
 

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images

 

Third in a series

If former President Trump wins the election but Democrats control the House, Washington plunges into an epic power struggle and gridlock, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.

  • Why it matters: Trump has terrible relations with elected Democrats, and believes powerfully in the expansive authority of the presidency.

That's a recipe for extensive executive action on immigration and other policy arenas. Trump would likely test new limits of unilateral action, and count on conservative courts to back him.

  • Expect constant friction between Trump and Democrats, who'd use their own oversight powers to investigate and challenge his administration and force court fights of their own.
  • Sleeper scenario to watch: Trump and many Democrats agree on China, trade, targeted tax cuts and domestic energy production. So the possibility of consensus exists.

?️ The big picture: A presentation by FGS Global — a communications and public affairs consultancy advising huge clients on potential election outcomes — spells out the implications of a Trump government if Democrats have a House or (less likely) Senate majority.

  • This is the third of four columns, combining our reporting with the FGS "Alternative Futures" analysis.

? What to watch in a "power struggle" scenario, under a divided government with Trump in the White House and Dems controlling at least one chamber of Congress:

1. Executive orders, regulatory changes

With a divided Congress, Trump's administration would rely heavily on executive orders to push his top promises. This could include moves to roll back climate rules, restrict immigration and ease corporate regulations.

  • Expect a resurgence of executive orders aimed at reversing Biden-era policies — particularly in energy production, environmental regulation and social-policy requirements on infrastructure spending.
  • Trump could reintroduce strict immigration policies via executive orders, focusing on border control, deportations and restrictions on legal immigration.
  • But without congressional support, many of Trump's more ambitious projects, like a full-scale immigration overhaul and sweeping tax cuts, would be limited.
  • The reliance on executive orders could create a volatile legal landscape, with constant court challenges by Dems.
  • Corporations, especially in energy and tech, would face uncertainty from a regulatory framework that could change rapidly.

2. Taxes and health care

A divided government would have massive implications for Washington's biggest policy fight in years — the expiration of trillions of dollars of Trump's tax cuts at the end of 2025.

  • Democrats would likely block the extension of tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans. But allowing the full 2017 law to expire would mean higher taxes for the vast majority of the country.

3. Judicial appointments, courts

A Republican-controlled Senate would work closely with Trump to push through conservative judicial appointments, ensuring the federal judiciary continues to shift rightward. Expect a flurry of appointments to appellate courts and possible nominations to the Supreme Court if a vacancy arises. A Democrat-controlled Senate would vastly limit Trump's efforts.

  • Trump and Senate Republicans would prioritize confirming conservative judges, solidifying a right-leaning judiciary that could influence decisions on key issues like abortion, voting rights, and regulatory power.
  • The size of any Senate majority will matter profoundly, since the 60-vote filibuster still stands. The Senate would serve as a firewall for Trump, blocking Democratic-led investigations or efforts to convict him in an impeachment trial.
  • The judiciary would become a battleground for determining the constitutionality of executive orders and legislative actions.

Column continues below.

 

? Part 2: Gaming out paralyzed government

4. Culture wars, Hill gridlock

Trump would use his bully pulpit to push back against what he sees as "woke" policies. Republicans would push legislation inhibiting gender-affirming care, corporate diversity initiatives and the teaching of critical race theory. But legislative progress would be limited by Democrats.

  • Trump would continue to push cultural issues like gender and free speech. Executive actions may target LGBTQ+ rights and restrict funding for programs promoting diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI).
  • A Democratic House would counter by investigating and challenging Trump's actions. Expect hearings on Trump's handling of federal programs and conflicts of interest — and potentially more impeachment inquiries.
  • Expect a lot of noise but little legislative progress — neither side would have the juice to enact sweeping reforms without the other's cooperation.
  • Businesses would find themselves routinely stuck in the crosshairs of cultural fights.

5. Immigration, border control

Trump likely would focus on border security and deportation through executive orders. But Democrats could limit his ability to pass new comprehensive immigration reform or expand funding for his border wall.

  • Expect Trump to use existing executive authority to tighten asylum rules, increase deportations and pressure sanctuary cities. Federal agencies could see increased enforcement actions targeting undocumented immigrants.
  • Efforts to fund further expansion of the border wall or restrict legal immigration pathways would face fierce opposition, resulting in budget standoffs.
  • Without congressional backing, his ability to make lasting changes to immigration law would be limited, leading to frustration among his base. Businesses would face uncertain labor markets and internal tension over executive actions.

6. Foreign policy, global relations

Trump's foreign policy would remain focused on "America First." But a divided Congress could curtail his ability to pass significant foreign policy legislation. Instead, Trump could be expected to rely on executive agreements and bilateral deals to reshape America's global relations.

  • Expect Trump to continue pushing a tough stance on China, with potential tariffs and sanctions. He might also attempt to renegotiate trade deals with allies like the EU — but without congressional support, comprehensive treaties could be off the table. He'd find some sympathetic Democrats in these fights.
  • Trump's relationship with NATO and other international alliances could become further strained.
  • Global allies and adversaries could exploit these divisions, testing U.S. resolve and creating uncertainty in international relations.

? Post-election risks: Trump's reliance on executive orders to bypass congressional gridlock could lead to constant legal battles, undermining confidence in governance broadly.

  • Democrats would be likely to launch investigations into Trump's administration, targeting conflicts of interest, alleged abuses of power, and attempts to sidestep congressional oversight.
  • Trump could retaliate by refusing to cooperate with subpoenas, leading to constitutional confrontations between the executive and legislative branches.
  • The constant legal and political battles could paralyze government — creating uncertainty for businesses, investors, and foreign allies.

Share this column ... Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

 

?️ Trump's rhetorical rampage
 
Illustration of an election booth with quotes from Donald Trump set up graphically against the background.
 

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

 

Former President Trump's extreme rhetoric is making life uncomfortable for Republicans in the final weeks of the campaign, prompting some surrogates to revive the 2016 disclaimer: "Take him seriously, not literally," Axios' Zachary Basu writes.

  • Why it matters: With more voters finally tuning into the presidential race, Vice President Harris is determined to make Trump own his words — and not allow allies to sanitize his most incendiary and violent language.

Rather than temper his tone as Election Day approaches, Trump's public rhetoric has grown more erratic, hyperbolic and nativist than ever before. In interviews, speeches and social media posts over the past month, Trump has:

  • Called domestic critics such as Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) "the enemy from within," and argued they're more dangerous than any foreign adversary.
  • Floated using the National Guard or military to handle "radical left lunatics" on Election Day.
  • Suggested police be allowed "one really violent day" to crack down on retail crime.
  • Claimed America is an "occupied country" that must be "liberated" from criminal migrants who have "bad genes" and have "raped our country."
  • Called Democrats "evil" and "professional thieves" intent on stealing elections and destroying America.
  • Said that if he loses the election, Jewish voters would have "a lot to do with" the result.
  • Called Harris "mentally disabled" and "mentally impaired," claiming she "was born that way." He also called Harris "retarded" at a private dinner for donors, according to the N.Y. Times.

At a rally in Pennsylvania on Monday, Harris took the rare step of playing a video montage of Trump's stretch of threatening language as she urged Americans to "listen to his words."

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted
Harris with handcuffs
 
Photo illustration of Vice President Kamala Harris with a duplicated U.S. Capitol Building behind her
 

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

 

Fourth in a series

If Vice President Harris takes the White House but not Congress, Washington would face much of the same gridlock and dysfunction it does today — except with an ambitious new president facing off against an oppositional but decapitated GOP, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.

  • Why it matters: Harris, handcuffed by Republicans in Congress, would be forced to govern like a more moderate version of President Biden.

There's little appetite, or money, for massive new programs like Biden's green energy and infrastructure plans. Her term would be consumed by finding a middle ground on the Trump tax cuts that expire in 2025, and fighting for smaller wins like subsidies for buying a new home.

  • Republicans in Congress would prioritize blocking Harris' more progressive initiatives, particularly on climate, health care and taxes.

?️ The big picture: A private presentation by FGS Global — a worldwide communications and public affairs consultancy advising huge clients on election outcomes — outlines potential policy shifts under a Harris administration that are constrained by a Republican majority in at least one chamber on Capitol Hill.

  • This is the final of four columns, combining our reporting with the FGS "Alternative Futures" analysis.

? What to watch in a "stalemate" scenario, with a President Harris + GOP control of one or both chambers of Congress:

1. Climate, environmental policy

Harris' climate agenda, which would focus on aggressive emissions reductions and expanding green energy, would face significant opposition in a Republican-controlled Congress.

  • Expect Harris to use the EPA and other federal agencies to regulate carbon emissions and push for clean energy infrastructure, including electric vehicles and solar energy.
  • Republicans in Congress might try to defund key climate initiatives or pass bills that weaken environmental regulations. But these would likely face a veto from Harris.
  • Harris' ability to advance large-scale climate reforms would be limited, resulting in slower progress on green energy and emissions reductions.
  • The regulatory push could face legal challenges from industries and Republican-led states, creating a fragmented approach to climate policy.

2. Health care, social spending

Expanding health care access, a cornerstone of Harris' platform, would be a major point of contention. Republicans would likely block efforts to expand the Affordable Care Act (ACA). But Harris could focus on maintaining existing health care programs and making incremental changes.

  • Social programs — child care, paid family leave and affordable housing — might be scaled back due to budget constraints imposed by a Republican-controlled Congress.
  • Republican opposition would block any sweeping changes to health care, preventing Harris from enacting the broader social safety net expansions that progressives want.

3. Tax, economic policy

Economic policy would become a major battleground: Harris would push for tax increases on corporations and the wealthy, while Republicans would work to maintain tax cuts enacted under Trump. Look for major standoffs over the budget and tax policy.

  • Harris would likely propose reversing the Trump-era tax cuts for those earning over $400,000, and increasing taxes on corporations to pay for social programs. But Republicans in Congress would block any significant tax hikes.
  • Budget negotiations would be contentious: Republicans would aim to reduce federal spending, particularly on social programs and green energy initiatives. There's a high likelihood of government shutdown threats over budget disagreements.
  • With no room for compromise on taxes, the wealth gap may remain unchanged, and any significant redistribution of wealth would stall.

Column continues below.

 

? Part 2: What happens with a "stalemate" scenario
 
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Vice President Harris hugs a child after speaking during a campaign event at Washington Crossing Historic Park in Pa. yesterday. Photo: Jacquelyn Martin/AP

4. Judicial appointments, courts

If Republicans control the Senate, Harris' ability to appoint judges would be severely limited. GOP senators would likely block or delay the confirmation of progressive judges, particularly for appellate courts and potential Supreme Court nominations.

  • Harris could still make appointments to lower courts. But higher-profile judicial appointments, especially to the Supreme Court, would face significant roadblocks.
  • That would maintain the conservative balance in the courts, limiting Harris' ability to influence long-term legal outcomes on reproductive rights, health care and immigration.

5. Immigration, border control

A Republican Congress would force Harris to maintain the more hawkish posture on border security that she's projected on the campaign trail.

  • Comprehensive immigration reform would likely be off the table. But Harris could push Congress to take up the bipartisan border deal former President Trump helped kill earlier this year. That could mean more funding for border agents and an overhaul of the asylum process.
  • Republicans may use their control over the budget to block funding for sanctuary cities and other humanitarian support for migrants.

6. Foreign policy, global relations

On the international stage, Harris would likely continue President Biden's foreign policy of strengthening alliances and reengaging with multilateral institutions.

  • She'd likely prioritize deepening relationships with NATO allies, maintaining a tough stance on China and Russia, and focusing on global cooperation on climate change, cybersecurity and human rights.
  • Republicans might push for a more hawkish approach, insisting on higher defense spending. They may also resist Harris' efforts to scale back military involvement in the Middle East.
  • Trade policies could become a point of friction, with Harris seeking to rebuild trade relationships and promote environmental standards. Republicans may push for a more protectionist approach.

? Post-election risks: A Harris presidency facing a divided Congress would create a volatile and uncertain political environment.

  • This scenario could lead to a series of legal challenges, budget fights and political stalemates — increasing the likelihood of government shutdowns and partisan confrontations.
  • A Republican-controlled House could launch investigations into Harris' administration.
  • Harris' executive actions could face lawsuits from Republican-led states and industries, particularly around environmental regulations, health care and immigration.

The bottom line: Frequent political battles and legal challenges could create instability — making it difficult for Harris to achieve lasting reforms, and increasing partisan tensions across America.

 

? Harris declares independence
 
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Bret Baier interviews Vice President Harris in Washington Crossing, Pa., at 5:15 p.m. yesterday. Photo: Fox News

Vice President Harris ventured into the lion's den yesterday to deliver a message that many Americans — including anxious Democrats — have been waiting to hear:

  • "My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden's presidency," Harris told Fox News' Bret Baier.

Why it matters: In the highest-risk interview of her campaign, Harris took the rare step of distancing herself from the unpopular, aging president she serves — touting a "new generation of leadership" to millions of skeptical Fox News viewers, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.

3 takeaways

1. Turning the page. After Republicans seized last week on her reluctance to disavow any of Biden's actions, Harris came to the Fox interview determined to burnish a more independent image.

  • "Like every new president that comes into office, I will bring my life experiences, my professional experiences, and fresh and new ideas," Harris said, before detailing the highlights of her economic agenda.

2. The border albatross. The start of the interview was dominated by Baier's questions about the millions of undocumented immigrants who have entered the U.S. since Biden took office, and whether Harris regrets reversing Trump's harsh border policies.

  • Baier — cognizant that immigration is a top issue for Fox viewers and millions of voters — was persistent that Harris answer for the mistakes of the administration's first three years, which she was unable to do.

3. No "basket of deplorables." In a back-and-forth over why Trump is polling so well despite Harris branding him "unstable" and "dangerous," Baier asked the vice president whether she thought his supporters were "stupid" or "misguided."

  • "When you listen to Donald Trump, if you watch any of his rallies, he is the one who tends to demean and belittle and diminish," she shot back.

? Between the lines: Both campaigns saw the interview through their own predictable, partisan lenses: Trump's side called it a "train wreck." Harris' saw it as a "masterclass."

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Harris on Fox

Vice President Kamala Harris took on Fox News during a heated interview Wednesday, her first appearance on the conservative network. Pressed on border crossings and violent crimes committed by undocumented immigrants during Joe Biden's presidency, Harris repeatedly hammered former President Donald Trump for opposing a bipartisan border security bill earlier this year. Fox anchor Bret Baier confronted Harris about the Biden administration's decision to repeal Trump-era border policies in what amounted to testy exchanges between the two. Asked about Biden's mental acuity, she called Trump "unstable" and said "we should all be concerned." The interview came as Harris seeks to appeal to small slivers of undecided voters who have supported Republicans in the past but are uneasy with Trump.

 

Harris in interview with Charlamagne Tha God urges disillusioned voters to not give up

Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris on a popular radio show Tuesday encouraged Americans to vote this year even if they don’t believe all of the problems they’re concerned about can be fixed in the immediate future.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/10/16/harris-in-interview-with-charlamagne-tha-god-urges-disillusioned-voters-to-not-give-up/?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Trump is consistently inconsistent on abortion and reproductive rights

CHICAGO (AP) — Donald Trump has had a tough time finding a consistent message to questions about abortion and reproductive rights.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-abortion-election-2024-ivf-contraception-d91f0959087e803db390be11eb60975b?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Big ratings for Fox-Harris

Vice President Harris' interview with Bret Baier on Fox News' "Special Report" on Wednesday drew a stunning 7.8 million viewers, according to Nielsen data.

  • Why it matters: Fox said it was the highest-rated interview "of the Harris-Trump political season."

That includes Harris appearances on "60 Minutes" (5.7 million), "The View" (3.1 million) and "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert" (2.9 million).

  • Pittsburgh was the top-rated market for Baier's interview, Nielsen said.

On the same day, former President Trump's town hall with Fox News' Harris Faulkner drew 3.1 million viewers.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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JD Vance Campaign Event With Christian Right Leaders May Have Violated Tax and Election Laws, Experts Say

Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance’s appearance at a far-right Christian revival tour last month may have broken tax and election laws, experts say.

https://www.propublica.org/article/vance-ziklag-courage-tour-christian-right-tax-election-laws?

Trump hotel attracted would-be judges, ambassadors, pardon-seekers, House Democrats say

NEW YORK (AP) — Judges seeking appointments to the federal bench. Wealthy Republicans hoping for ambassadorships. Criminals who wanted pardons.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-hotel-emoluments-house-democrats-oversight-19953ac3aceecefbe17c0cf904584214?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Laptop Prices Could Increase by Up to 45% Under Trump's Proposed Tariffs

A study from the Consumer Technology Association estimates laptops, video game consoles, and phones will see significant price hikes under Trump's plan to tariff all imports.

https://www.pcmag.com/news/laptops-might-become-350-more-expensive-under-trumps-proposed-tariffs?

Trump kicks off a Pennsylvania rally by talking about Arnold Palmer’s genitalia

LATROBE, Pa. (AP) — Donald Trump’s campaign suggested he would begin previewing his closing argument Saturday night with Election Day barely two weeks away. But the former president kicked off his rally with a detailed story about Arnold Palmer, at one point even praising the late, legendary golfer’s genitalia.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-arnold-palmer-closing-arguments-latrobe-pennsylvania-2bea9620c523e531a55259200215284e?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted
? Fries on the trail
 
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Former President Trump hands off an order of fries during a visit yesterday to a McDonald's in Feasterville-Trevose, Pa., Photo: Doug Mills/The New York Times

Former President Trump — famed fan of fast food — manned the fry station yesterday at a McDonald's in suburban Philly that was closed to the public.

  • "It requires great expertise, actually, to do it right and to do it fast," Trump said, putting away his suit jacket and wearing an apron over his shirt and tie.
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Trump hands out an order through the restaurant's drive-thru window. Photo: Evan Vucci/AP

A huge crowd lined the street outside the restaurant in Bucks County, a key swing voter area north of Philadelphia.

  • After serving bags of takeout to people in the drive-thru lane, Trump leaned out of the window to take questions from reporters staged outside.

Go deeper ... McDonald's internal message: Harris also invited.

mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Photo: Jacquelyn Martin/AP

Above: Vice President Harris got an assist from Stevie Wonder, who rallied congregants at a church in Jonesboro, Ga., with a rendition of Bob Marley's "Redemption Song."

  • Harris will sit down for an interview tomorrow with NBC News' Hallie Jackson at the vice president's residence at the Naval Observatory.

?️ How it's playing...

mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Today's New York Times lead story

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Trump's campaign leans on climate change denial: Six misleading claims debunked

While Harris has repeatedly referred to climate change as a "crisis," Trump has pushed back against the existence of climate change and promoted climate science misinformation, including claims previously debunked by USA TODAY and other fact-checkers.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/10/19/donald-trump-climate-change-science-claims-debunked/75184149007/?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Posted

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

Hurricane aid

Former President Donald Trump repeated debunked claims about the federal response to Hurricane Helene during his visit to North Carolina on Monday. Speaking to reporters in a hard-hit community near Asheville, Trump made the false assertion that FEMA took money that was supposed to go to disaster relief and instead spent it on migrants who entered the country illegally, leaving the agency with no funds to help Americans. Trump claimed that FEMA's money is "all gone" — which is false. As of last Tuesday, its Disaster Relief Fund had about $8.5 billion remaining, FEMA told CNN. The agency has made clear that it has enough money for the immediate needs of people affected by Hurricane Helene — though the large number of disasters around the country this year means the agency might have to ask Congress for additional disaster relief funding sooner than expected.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted
Trump's splash strategy
 
Photo illustration of Donald Trump, a McDonald's sign, Madison Square Garden, and Trump dancing at a campaign event
 

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Kevin Dietsch, Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post, Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto, and Matt Cardy via Getty Images

 

Former President Trump, a Queens native, has been talking about staging a rally in Madison Square Garden since being indicted on business fraud charges by a Manhattan jury in March 2023.

  • At a cost of more than $1 million, his campaign will fulfill his wish with a Madison Square Garden rally on Sunday evening. New York is hardly a swing state, but Trump'll get tons of coverage, Axios' Sophia Cai reports.

Why it matters: In the campaign's closing days, Trump is combining splashy stunts with dark, apocalyptic messaging — a grand-finale twist on his lifelong formula of staying in the news, being provocative, deflecting.

? Zoom out: In the weeks after Vice President Harris replaced President Biden as the Democratic candidate, Trump stewed as she dominated the headlines. He struggled to find the best way to undermine her.

  • Trump and his campaign eventually hatched a plan for a series of provocative October events.

?️ As part of the strategy, and in his continued quest for young male voters, Trump will tape an interview with Joe Rogan on Friday.

Tucker Carlson will stump with Trump in the swing state of Georgia this evening, and tells Mike he hopes to make at least one more joint appearance before Election Day.

? ?Carlson also hopes to meet up with Trump for a Halloween show on Oct. 31 at the Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Ariz., outside Phoenix, as an "Election Special Grand Finale" of the "Tucker Carlson Live Tour," which has sold out arenas nationwide. But that isn't nailed down.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Prep for '25
 
Photo illustrations featuring Vice President Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, the U.S. Capitol Building, and the White House.
 

Photo illustrations: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

A series of "Behind the Curtain" columns by Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen will help you get ready for the radically different Washington environments that businesses will face depending on the election's outcome.

  • Why it matters: Whether one party runs the table or we wind up with divided government, expect cultural wars that are stoked by the election's winners and losers, are fueled by the media, then seep into the workplace.

Our four scenarios:

  1. Republican sweep: Trump, with a Republican House and Senate, would institutionalize the MAGA movement, with massive consequences for governance, civil rights and international relations. Keep reading.
  2. Democratic sweep: Harris with a Democratic House and Senate (the least likely scenario, since the GOP looks likely to flip the Senate) would bring a progressive push across virtually every sector. Keep reading.
  3. Trump with handcuffs: If a President Trump were constrained by Democratic control of at least one chamber of Congress, Washington would plunge into an epic power struggle and gridlock. Keep reading.
  4. Harris with divided government: If President Harris faced a Republican Senate and/or House, she'd have to govern like a more moderate version of President Biden. Keep reading.

? The series was inspired by a clever "Alternative Futures" matrix by the consultancy FGS Global. Michael Feldman, partner and co-chairman, North America, tells us CEOs and other leaders gobbled up the series:

  • "It's easy to get lost in the white noise of the data and the sport of the horserace. The reaction to the Alternative Futures analysis from executives and boards has been overwhelming. It's not about predicting results — the power of the tool is in preparation and planning for any outcome." 

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted
? Harris fights global trend
 
Table showing GDP growth among G7 nations for 2023 and projections for 2024 and 2025. The U.S. has the highest economic growth with +2.9% in 2023, +2.8% expected in 2024 and +2.2% projected for 2025. Among G7 nations, Germany has the least expected growth with -0.3% in 2023 and 0% in 2024.
Data: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook. Chart: Axios Visuals

Vice President Harris is trying to retain the White House for Democrats at a time when voters all over the world are throwing out their incumbents, Axios' Dave Lawler and Neil Irwin write.

Why it matters: Harris could be swept out in the same tide of inflation-fueled economic angst that has doomed incumbents elsewhere.

  • Or she could be saved by the relative buoyancy of the Biden-era U.S. economy — the envy of the world (charted above).

?️ The big picture: Job security could hardly be lower for incumbents across the world's wealthy democracies.

  • The Conservatives lost in a historic landslide this July in the U.K. after a decade in power. French President Emmanuel Macron and South Korea's Yoon Suk Yeol suffered setbacks in their legislative elections.
  • Japan's long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party is poised to lose seats in a snap general election on Sunday.

Between the lines: The anti-incumbent trend looks like it will continue into next year.

  • Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals are down around 20 points to the Conservatives.
  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's party is running third with less than 20% in the polls.
  • Approval ratings for Trudeau (25%), Scholz (20%), Macron (18%) and Yoon (16%) make President Biden's 38% look stratospheric — let alone Harris' in the mid-40s.

? The other side: Those leaders are presiding over considerably weaker economies than the U.S., which is on track to grow faster in 2024 than any other G7 nation for the second consecutive year — by a wide margin.

 

? Harris' secret admirers

Two of America's biggest business titans — Bill Gates and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon — are secretly supporting Vice President Harris, the N.Y. Times reported yesterday in separate stories.

  • Why it matters: Former President Trump has threatened retribution against Democratic donors and political opponents.

Gates has "said privately that he recently donated about $50 million to a nonprofit organization" that backs Harris but doesn't have to disclose its donors.

  • In a statement to The Times, Gates avoided endorsing Harris but said that "this election is different, with unprecedented significance for Americans and the most vulnerable people around the world."

Dimon has been vague about his political leanings in public but has made his support for Harris clear in private, The Times writes.

  • He says he'd consider a role in her administration — likely Treasury secretary.
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Screenshot: CNN

In a series of interviews with The Times' Michael Schmidt, John Kelly — Trump's longest-serving chief of staff — said the former president repeatedly praised Hitler.

  • Kelly said he told Trump that "if you knew what Hitler was all about from the beginning to the end, everything he did was in support of his racist, fascist life, ... nothing he did, you could argue, was good — it was certainly not done for the right reason."
  • "Kelly said that would usually end the conversation. But Mr. Trump would occasionally bring it up again," Schmidt reports.

Listen to the audio (NYT gift link).

? Eminem spoke briefly at a rally for Vice President Harris in his hometown of Detroit yesterday before welcoming former President Obama to the stage.

  • Obama, who took the stage to the beat of Eminem's "Lose Yourself," joked that he "noticed my palms are sweaty" — a reference to the hit song, before rapping several lines from it. Keep reading.

?Coming attractions: Tomorrow evening in Atlanta, Bruce "The Boss" Springsteen will headline Harris' first joint rally with Obama, kicking off a series of concerts in swing states. Actor and filmmaker Tyler Perry will speak, and Mix Master David will emcee and DJ. Go deeper.

  • Continuing the series of "When We Vote We Win" concerts. Springsteen will join Obama in Philly on Monday for a concert and rally. Go deeper.

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When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Harris says Trump ‘is a fascist’ after John Kelly says the former president wanted generals like Hitler’s

ASTON, Pa. (AP) — Vice President Kamala Harris said that she believes that Donald Trump “is a fascist” after his longest-serving chief of staff said the former president praised Adolf Hitler while in office and put personal loyalty above the Constitution.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-john-kelly-nazis-hitler-87d672e1ec1a6645808050fc60f6b8bc?

Donald Trump tells supporters to ‘just vote’ at Georgia rally organized by Charlie Kirk

DULUTH, Ga. (AP) — Donald Trump implored supporters at a Georgia rally to vote for him — with an early ballot or in-person on Election Day — in a state that will be crucial in the presidential election.

https://apnews.com/article/turning-point-election-2024-donald-trump-2b3580134a6b19dff18771c3fdb0f11a?

? Surrogate watch: Trump taps Mullin

Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) has been hitting the trail for former President Trump to win over Native American voters in battleground states.

Why it matters: A strong Trump relationship is powerful currency in the Senate. Mullin has one of those relationships with Trump, and he's landed a unique surrogate role.

  • Mullin's even hinted at his openness to an administration gig, telling a North Carolina crowd this week, "I'm so proud that I'm going to hopefully be part of it, working side by side with [Trump] in the Senate or in another capacity."
  • Mullin has publicly backed Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) for GOP leader next year — and has asked Trump not to intervene in the race, as we told you earlier this month.

Zoom in: Mullin, an enrolled member of the Cherokee Nation, is one of just five Native Americans serving in Congress — and the only one in the Senate.

  • It's the latest example of the Trump campaign's efforts this cycle to win over non-white voting blocs that have historically sided with Democrats — as the GOP rebrands itself as the party for the working class.
  • Mullin and Tulsi Gabbard, the former Democratic presidential candidate, have been traveling through North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona in recent weeks, touting Trump's promises to tribal nations.
  • "President Trump has already made mention of this that he's going to have a large understanding ... of self-determination and sovereignty and understanding what the treaties actually mean," Mullin said Tuesday at a North Carolina event alongside Donald Trump Jr.

The bottom line: The nation's more than 500 tribes have been asserting themselves in recent years, clashing with more Democrats and Republicans over sovereignty issues around oil drilling, endangered species protections and voting rights, our colleague Russell Contreras reports.

  • While Native American voters in states like Arizona, New Mexico and South Dakota tend to be staunchly Democratic, Oklahomans are more likely to vote with the GOP.

— Stef Kight

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When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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?‍♂️ Trump's lifetime of scandals
 
Photo illustration of Donald Trump with speech bubbles coming out of his mouth getting progressively larger. The speech bubbles are all on fire and burnt around the edges.
 

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

 

For the third straight election, tens of millions of Americans will vote for a candidate who boasts an encyclopedia of scandals — personal, political and criminal — unprecedented in any corner of public life, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.

  • Why it matters: Donald Trump has defied political gravity. He has survived the unsurvivable, normalized the abnormal and bulldozed through every red line drawn by his predecessors. And yet he just might win — again.

Days before the election, Trump's former chief of staff — retired four-star Gen. John Kelly — went on the record to warn that the former president is a "fascist" who would rule like a dictator.

  • "He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,'" Kelly told The New York Times, choosing to speak out after Trump floated using the U.S. military against political enemies.

Kelly's comments have landed like virtually every Trump scandal of the past eight years — drawing outrage from Democrats and liberal pundits, shrugs and spin from Republicans.

? Pull any one of these 10 Trump scandals out of a hat and apply it to any other politician — or even just a typical American. More likely than not, it would end their career:

  1. Trump was found guilty on 34 felony counts in New York for paying illegal hush money to a porn star.
  2. He refused to concede the 2020 election and spread baseless claims of voter fraud that inspired a violent mob to attack the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
  3. He was indicted on federal charges of illegally retaining classified documents that included nuclear secrets. (The case was dismissed but could be reinstated upon appeal.)
  4. He was impeached twice — once for his actions on Jan. 6 and once for withholding military aid to pressure Ukraine's government to investigate his political opponents.
  5. He has publicly praised dictators and sided with Vladimir Putin over U.S. intelligence agencies that assessed that Russia had interfered in the 2016 election.
  6. He was found liable for sexually abusing writer E. Jean Carroll, and has been accused of sexual misconduct by at least 25 other women. He was caught on tape in 2005 bragging about grabbing women by their genitals.
  7. He and his company were ordered to pay $350 million in a New York civil fraud trial for artificially inflating his net worth to secure favorable loan terms.
  8. He placed full-page ads in The New York Times in 1989 calling for the death penalty for five Black and Latino teenagers who were wrongfully convicted of raping a jogger in Central Park. He has refused to apologize.
  9. He promoted the racist conspiracy theory that Barack Obama wasn't born in the United States.
  10. He made more than 30,000 false or misleading claims during his four years in office, according to Washington Post fact-checkers.

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When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Harris says Trump's a fascist

Vice President Harris said she believes former President Trump is a fascist when asked by CNN's Anderson Cooper during a town hall last night.

  • Why it matters: Harris' closing argument in the 2024 race is that her opponent is a fundamental threat to the nation, Axios' Erin Doherty writes.

? Harris opened up about her faith, saying she prays "every day, sometimes twice a day ... I was raised to believe in a loving God ... and your life's work should be to think about how you can serve in a way that is uplifting other people."

? Harris aide in Trump's head

Former President Trump has an incongruous new obsession: Ian Sams, an unassuming Harris campaign spokesman, Axios' Sophia Cai writes.

  • Why it matters: Sams is a Democrat who relishes mixing it up on Fox News, prompting Trump and his staff to fire off dozens of social media posts blasting Sams and accusing the network of betrayal.

Sams — a veteran of Harris' 2019 presidential team who worked in the White House before moving to her current campaign — was on Fox four times in five days last week.

  • After Sams told Neil Cavuto, "We're not seeing Donald Trump do very many interviews," Trump posted on his Truth Social platform: "Sams is just a below average guy, with memorized FAKE NEWS soundbites, almost all of which are WRONG."
  • After Sams was on Martha MacCallum's show, Trump wondered in a post: "Does Ian Sams, Lyin' Kamala's Special Advisor, own Fox News? ... He is on all the time, as are so many other of her other supporters."

"In the old days, you never had Ian Sams," Trump lamented on the "Fox & Friends" couch.

Presidential race

Vice President Kamala Harris said, "Yes, I do," when asked during a CNN town hall Wednesday if she believes former President Donald Trump is a fascist, as she drilled down on the dangers of a second Trump term. Harris answered questions from undecided Pennsylvania voters on a range of issues, including immigration, abortion access and the Middle East, while vowing to work with Republicans. She also sought to distance herself from President Joe Biden and promised "a new generation of leadership." Meanwhile, Trump made his case to voters and slammed the Democratic candidates at a rally in Duluth, Georgia, as the latest CNN average of national polling still finds no clear leader in the presidential race.

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When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Dems fear they're blowing it
 
Illustration of a sad looking donkey with a giant sweat drop on it's head
 

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

A growing number of top Democrats tell us privately they feel Vice President Kamala Harris will lose — even though polls show a coin-toss finish 11 days from now, Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.

  • Why it matters: Democrats admit they tend to be hand-wringing, bed-wetting, doomsdayers. But what's striking is how our private conversations with Democrats inside and outside her campaign reveal broad concern that little she does, says — or tries — seems to move the needle.

? This is after Democrats spent $1 billion — nearly twice as much as Republicans — over the past three months to polish her image and soil former President Trump's. Trump and allied committees raised about half Harris' total, $92 million, from Oct. 1 to 16, the N.Y. Times reports this morning (gift link).

  • And this is after Trump's cringy 40-minute onstage sway to '80s music, his threats to target "enemies within," calling his opponent "retarded" and "sh*t" — and having his former White House chief of staff say he's fascist and talked admiringly of Hitler. (A new Harris ad uses audio from the New York Times interview with the former aide, retired U.S. Marine Gen. John Kelly).

? Between the lines: We're not saying Harris is losing or will lose. An earlier "Behind the Curtain" column spelled out why this is toss-up America.

  • Our reporting simply reflects scores of conversations with people close to Harris and intimately involved in swing-state races, including officials inside her campaign and top Biden administration officials.
  • Harris' rhetorical journey has mirrored Democratic moods — from "joy" over the summer to darkness this week, when she painted Trump as a dangerous fascist.

What we're hearing: In a troubling sign for the campaign, top Democrats are already starting to point fingers at who'd be more responsible for a Harris loss — President Biden for dragging his feet, or Harris herself. "Going down?" a top Democratic official texted.

  • Democrats fear she has made too many different cases against Trump, and still hasn't fully revealed herself to voters, who crave to know more.
  • "She is who she is," one longtime Democratic strategist said. "Let's hope it's enough."

Democrats say Harris faces a maddening double standard, as Trump threatens to jail adversaries and strip broadcast licenses. "He gets to be lawless. She has to be flawless," CNN senior political commentator Van Jones said this week.

  • Harris' closing ads focus on Trump as the three uns: "unhinged, unstable and unchecked." (Watch the ad, "Total Power.")
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Former President Obama and Vice President Harris in Clarkston, Ga., last night. Photo: Drew Angerer/AFP via Getty Images

? The other side: Trump's closing ad campaign has been tightly focused on two clips: an ad focused on transgender rights ("Kamala's agenda is they/them, not you"), and Harris' own words on "The View" that "not a thing" comes to mind about how she'd differ from Biden. (She has since said she'd bring a "new generation of leadership.")

  • Stunning stat: The Trump campaign alone has spent more than $30 million on trans-focused ads (including one in Spanish) in the past 36 days, according to AdImpact data.

Top Republicans, in private conversations, seem shockingly confident, given the consistent 50-50 polls. They talk in granular detail about White House jobs, and discuss policy playbooks for '25.

  • Reflecting the bravado, Dan Scavino, Trump's longtime close aide and ghost tweeter, refers to the 45th president as "45–47," and wrote last week on Trump's Truth Social Platform: "I have ZERO interest in working with anyone who is a former colleague that disappeared upon our departure from the White House—and was no where to be found when DJT announced his candidacy on 11/15/22, or was silent throughout 2023. STOP CALLING. STOP EMAILING. STOP TEXTING——YOU'RE NOT HEARING BACK FROM ME."

?️ The big picture: A common gripe among high-level Dems is that Harris does a nice job explaining why people shouldn't vote for Trump — but struggles to crisply explain why they should vote for her. In other words, she's a strong prosecutor — but struggles as a public defender.

  • Democratic insiders loved a line Harris used in the CNN town hall on Wednesday night, and sharpened Thursday night outside Atlanta in Clarkston, Ga: "Just imagine the Oval Office in three months. ... It's either Donald Trump in there stewing — stewing! — over his enemies list, or me, working for you, checking off my to-do list." The campaign even socialized a 15-point "Kamala Harris' to-do list."
  • "Better late than never," a top Democrat told us. Another leading Democrat said: "It's good. We're not dead yet."

? Zoom in: Democrats once felt very good about Nevada, a state Biden won in 2020. But early voting has them panicked. Jon Ralston, the top Nevada election expert, writes that the surge in early rural Republican voting — a "rural tsunami" — is ominous for Harris: "There is no good news in these numbers for Dems."

  • Pennsylvania continues to worry Harris, despite Biden winning there in 2020. Among the seven swing states, it's the one campaign insiders think she absolutely has to win, with signs of GOP momentum in the state's Senate race.

? Reality check: Harris inherited a very tough hand. Establishing and executing a campaign for president starting just 3½ months before an election is unprecedented in modern politics.

  • Besides Biden being unpopular, inflation has been the incumbent killer globally. Polls and election results in Canada, the U.K., France, Germany, Japan and South Korea all show this anti-incumbent tide.

The bottom line: We can't ignore the reality that no matter what Harris says or does, this country has never elected a woman president and only once elected a Black president. It's never elected a Black woman. Toss in broad concerns about immigration and inflation, and it's a lot to overcome, her advisers say.

  • Axios' Alex Thompson and Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

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When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Texas two-step

Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are both headed to Texas today, Axios Austin's Nicole Cobler writes.

  • Spoiler: Texas ain't a swing state.

Both will try to use coverage from Texas — Harris with a rally in Houston, and Trump from Joe Rogan's podcast studio in Austin — to reach key voter groups in battlegrounds.

  • Harris, who is expected to be joined by Beyoncé and Willie Nelson, will focus her Houston rally on the state's abortion ban.
  • Trump will speak to reporters about border security — a winning issue for Republicans — from a private airplane hangar in Austin.

? Between the lines: Their visits to the Lone Star State also come as Democratic Rep. Colin Allred closes in on Sen. Ted Cruz in recent polling.

  • Allred will appear on stage with Harris, a sign that Democrats see a possible path to victory in his uphill challenge of Cruz.

Breaking: Democrats' Senate Majority PAC will invest $5 million in pro-Allred ads focused on abortion.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2

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