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Phoenix rising

Major investments in computer-chip manufacturing, and electric and autonomous vehicles, have made Phoenix the overnight darling of America's innovation elite.

  • Why it matters: The world is seeing what local leaders have spent the past half-century trying to prove — that the desert city can be a major player in global tech and manufacturing, write Jessica Boehm and Jeremy Duda of Axios Phoenix.

State of play: Arizona has attracted more semiconductor investment since 2020 than any other U.S. state — driven mainly by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's $40 billion facilities in north Phoenix.

  • Semiconductors are used in just about every electronic device, including electric and autonomous cars — fields in which Phoenix is also thriving.

Waymo has been testing self-driving vehicles in metro Phoenix since 2017.

  • It recently doubled its local ride-hailing service area to cover 180 square miles — the largest fully autonomous service area in the world.
  • Five EV manufacturers have set up shop in Arizona since 2016.

How it happened: Government and business leaders pledged to diversify Phoenix's construction-based economy after it collapsed during the 2008 housing crash.

  • They formed the Arizona Commerce Authority, offered incentives and relaxed regulations to lure new companies.

Flashback: Metro Phoenix was home to several U.S. Air Force and Navy training bases during World War II, which made it a natural fit for post-war military manufacturing.

  • Motorola arrived in 1949, becoming the area's first semiconductor facility.
  • Intel followed, opening its first fabrication plant in the area in 1980.

For decades, the area has invited auto companies to test products.

  • GM, Goodyear, Ford, Chrysler and others established proving grounds on the outskirts of town in the 1940s and 1950s.
  • Many still exist and are now used to test electric and autonomous vehicles.

? Reality check: Phoenix now faces big-city problems, including housing affordability and homelessness — plus the increasingly dire challenge of water security.

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When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Chipmaker’s Scramble to Build Marred by Mistakes and Injuries

TSMC’s $40 billion semiconductor facility in Phoenix, an open shop that resisted signing an agreement with labor unions, has been tainted with accidents, alleged wage theft, and costly setbacks.

https://prospect.org/labor/2023-06-22-tsmc-semiconductor-factory-phoenix-accidents/?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Tech's giddy whiff of 1995

 
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgraphics.axios.co
Data: Yahoo Finance. Chart: Axios Visuals

Chipmaker Nvidia's blowout earnings report late yesterday is a strong sign that we're still only at the starting gate of Silicon Valley's artificial intelligence boom, Axios managing editor Scott Rosenberg writes.

  • Why it matters: The billions of dollars in cash that companies are laying out for Nvidia's AI chips show that there is more than stock speculation or vaporware products at play in the current frenzy.

How it works: Winners in the earliest phases of tech growth cycles like this one are always the sellers of the raw hardware businesses need to build out capacity in new platforms.

Flashback: In the mid-1990s, when every corporation in America suddenly realized they had to get onto the internet, there was only one company ready to supply, in bulk, the routers firms needed to connect.

  • Cisco Systems made many fortunes.

Today's hot commodity: Nvidia's AI chips, which are specialized processors that are fine-tuned to accelerate the calculations underlying ChatGPT and other generative AI applications.

  • That has put the company at the white-hot center of AI investment, and left Nvidia with more demand than it can handle.
  • "A new computing era has begun," Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang said. "Companies worldwide are transitioning from general-purpose to accelerated computing and generative AI."

? By the numbers: Nvidia reported $13.5 billion in revenue for its second quarter of 2023 — up 88% from the previous quarter, and well ahead of the $11.2 billion that analysts were expecting. Sales were more than double those from the same quarter a year ago.

  • Doubling revenue isn't unheard of for growth companies. Doubling it at this scale is rarer.

? Between the lines: The global race to stockpile Nvidia's AI chips has gotten a big boost from the Biden administration's sharp moves to keep advanced AI hardware out of China's hands.

  • That has pushed Chinese firms to place $5 billion in orders from Nvidia this year, the Financial Times reports, including orders for a special AI chip designed to comply with new U.S. export restrictions.
  • Other nations, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have also rushed to stockpile Nvidia chips to hedge against further U.S. limits.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Altman seeks billions for chip factories

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is raising billions to set up a network of chip factories to manufacture semiconductors, Bloomberg reports:

  • "Altman has had conversations with several large potential investors in the hopes of raising the vast sums needed for chip fabrication plants, or fabs, as they're known colloquially."

Why it matters: Forecasts show the production of AI-related chips falling short of soaring demand, which could inhibit the technology's spread.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Charted: Chip boom
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgraphics.axios.co
Data: YCharts. Chart: Axios Visuals

AI chipmaker Nvidia topped $2 trillion in market cap on Friday, less than nine months after crossing the $1 trillion threshold.

  • Why it matters: AI-drunk investors have bid up Nvidia, whose advanced chips power AI systems, to bubble-like levels, Axios managing editor Scott Rosenberg writes.

How it happened: Nvidia's wild ride is propelled by demand for its graphics processors — which have turned out to be ideal not only for Bitcoin mining (which drove a previous wave of Nvidia mania), but also for the kind of number-crunching that ChatGPT and similar AI programs demand.

Plot twist: The lead story of today's Wall Street Journal reports that the shift toward chips for deploying AI systems — "inference" work, as opposed to training — "threatens Nvidia's position because that work can be done with less-powerful and less-expensive chips."

  • "Many rivals believe they have a better shot in the AI market as chips for inferencing become more important."

Go deeper: Nvidia by the numbers.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Texas-sized chip investment
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Construction at Samsung Austin Semiconductor plant in Taylor, Texas, in November. Photo: Aaron E. Martinez/Austin American-Statesman via Reuters

President Biden this morning announced $6.4 billion in grants to Samsung for the South Korean company to expand chip production in the Austin area.

  • Why it matters: The massive Biden-led investment in chip production aims to reduce dependence on China and Taiwan, and gives the administration a permanent legacy across the U.S.

The preliminary agreement with the Commerce Department "will unleash over $40 billion in investment from Samsung, and cement central Texas's role as a state-of-the-art semiconductor ecosystem, creating at least 21,500 jobs and leveraging up to $40 million in CHIPS funding to train and develop the local workforce," the White House announcement says.

The agreement includes an existing site in Austin and a new chip manufacturing hub nearby in Taylor, Texas.

  • "Aside from manufacturing chips, Samsung will now construct a research and development facility in Taylor as well as an advanced factory for packaging them, the final step before semiconductors can be used in electronic systems," the N.Y. Times reports.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Charted: Nvidia's stunning run
 
A line chart that illustrates Nvidia
Data: YCharts. Chart: Axios Visuals

$2.9 trillion: Total market value for chipmaker Nvidia, which has soared amid demand for AI infrastructure.

  • Why it matters: Nvidia chips have become the processors of choice for AI systems — and made Nvidia one of the world's most valuable companies, Axios' Ina Fried and Hope King report.

A year ago, Nvidia was worth half as much — $1.15 trillion.

  • It's behind Apple and Microsoft, but ahead of Alphabet (Google) and Amazon.

? A top tech investor — James Anderson, an early Tesla and Amazon backer — told the Financial Times that Nvidia has a 10-15% chance of reaching a $50 trillion market cap in a decade.

  • That's a bit more than the combined market value of today's entire S&P 500.

Go deeper: Nvidia earnings show AI spending boom continues.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Nvidia = Magnet for gamblers
 
A line chart showing Nvidia
Data: FactSet, YCharts. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

Nvidia the chipmaker sits at the heart of an AI revolution, with the potential to transform life as we know it. Nvidia the stock has become a meme where gamblers' get-rich-quick dreams are increasingly coalescing, Axios' Felix Salmon writes.

  • Why it matters: No other stock offers Nvidia's combination of immediate name recognition, enormous volatility, unrivaled liquidity, and meme value.

?️ The big picture: Most companies boasting profits of more than $15 billion per quarter are relatively mature and predictable — Berkshire Hathaway or Apple.

  • Their profits this year will be broadly in line with their profits last year and next year.

Nvidia, by contrast, had profits of $16.6 billion in the second quarter, an increase of more than $10 billion from the same period a year ago.

  • No one knows whether such profitability will collapse as the AI bubble bursts, will be sustained as AI reaches into ever-greater parts of our lives, or will continue to grow at an eye-watering pace for years to come.
  • That makes Nvidia stock almost impossible to value using traditional calculations.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Nvidia replaces Intel in Dow
 
A line chart that illustrates the market capitalization of Nvidia and Intel from January 1, 2015, to November 1, 2024. Nvidia
Data: FactSet. Chart: Axios Visuals

Nvidia is among the few companies worth $1 trillion or more. Now the AI chipmaker joins another exclusive club: one of 30 blue-chip stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

  • Why it matters: This week Nvidia replaces Intel in the Dow, a shakeup that reveals technology's new world order dominated by generative AI, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes.

Intel — America's one-time chip leader, in the Dow for a quarter century — is struggling to keep pace with the AI-driven chip boom.

  • To understand the dramatic reversal of fortune, consider this: When Intel joined the Dow in 1999, The Wall Street Journal described the company as one of the "new economy stocks" replacing "old-economy stalwarts." The same might be said of Nvidia today.

? Between the lines: The Dow is less influential than it used to be, but its members are supposed to represent a cross-section of the economy.

  • With soaring AI investment expected to transform the economy, that now looks a little closer to reality.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Biden ratchets up AI chip war
 
Illustration of computer chips with North America, China, and Taiwan shapes on the fronts.
 

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

 

The Biden administration is readying dramatic last-minute steps to preserve a crucial advantage in its AI arms race with China: supply of the world's most advanced chips, Axios' Dave Lawler and Alison Snyder write.

  • Why it matters: The chips needed to develop cutting-edge AI are the most valuable pieces of hardware on Earth, and the best chips Chinese firms can produce lag about five years behind the top end of the market.

A pending executive order could cap sales of AI chips to countries all over the world, not just China, according to The Wall Street Journal — with a particular focus on Southeast Asia and the Gulf.

  • Biden has already imposed limitations on the advanced chips that companies like Nvidia can export to China. But there are concerns that Chinese firms are able to buy or access them in other countries or from smugglers. There's a thriving black market for Nvidia chips in China.

The new order would attempt to close that back door. It could also further divide the world along technological lines, with some countries likely getting unfettered access to U.S. tech and others facing limitations.

  • Details of the rule, which is pending regulatory review, haven't been made public. But U.S. chipmakers and tech firms have been waging an intense behind-the-scenes campaign to prevent more restrictions.

?️ The big picture: Beijing has declared its determination to leapfrog the West in every facet of the semiconductor supply chain. For now, it's locked out.

  • The Western advantage in chipmaking tools (such as the extreme ultraviolet lithography machines built by Dutch firm ASML) is so vast that China has little chance of narrowing it over the next five years, says Chris Miller, a professor at Tufts and author of "Chip War."

Zoom in: The chip wars have been heating up during the Biden-Trump transition.

  • China fired a warning shot earlier this month after Biden's latest export controls were announced by opening an antitrust investigation into Nvidia, causing the $3.3 trillion behemoth's stock to wobble.
  • That came a week after China announced it was banning exports to the U.S. of key minerals used in chipmaking.
  • The tit-for-tat could continue to accelerate in Trump's second term, given that Biden has been tightening export controls that began during Trump's first term.

? The intrigue: While Trump's administration-in-waiting is packed with China hawks, some incoming officials (including Trump himself) have indicated they also want to cut deals with Beijing. One piece of leverage in any such negotiations could be access to chips.

  • Go deeper: Beijing's toolbox for fighting back.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Biden's parting shot at Chinese chips
 
Animated illustration of two computer chips, one with American coloring and one with Chinese coloring. Their circuits are spreading out in different directions.
 

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

 

New this morning: The Biden administration said it launched an investigation into China's semiconductor sector, which officials claim threatens U.S. national security, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes.

  • Why it matters: It is a first step toward possible measures, like tariffs, that might seek to squeeze China-made chips out of U.S. products.

The investigation will largely focus on China's foundational semiconductors — key inputs in automobiles, medical devices and military defense systems.

  • These are distinct from advanced AI chips, though those have also been targeted by Biden.

? Reality check: With one month left in office, the fate of the investigation — and the ultimate remedies — rests with President-elect Trump.

  • The probe may take as long as a year to complete.

White House fact sheet ...

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Nvidia earnings = Silicon Valley heartburn
 
Illustration of a computer chip resting on the index finger of a robotic hand.
 

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

 

Every quarter since ChatGPT's debut, Nvidia's earnings release has tied a knot in Silicon Valley's gut as investors wait for the numbers that will prolong the AI boom — or end it, Axios' Scott Rosenberg and Ben Berkowitz write.

  • Today, markets await the chipmaker's first report since the arrival of DeepSeek's latest model last month cast a brief shadow over Nvidia's glow.

Why it matters: It's risky when any industry hangs so much of its hopes on one company's results. Nvidia's enviable record of beating expectations means the slightest faltering could trigger a rout.

? Zoom in: Investors have three broad fears.

1. The market is over-concentrated. The S&P 500's incredible run over the last two years has been heavily tied to the so-called Magnificent 7 stocks, led by Nvidia.

  • But as a result, those gains are more heavily concentrated in that small handful of stocks than they've been in decades.

2. Demand for AI remains elusive. Although ChatGPT and its rivals show healthy growth in usage, businesses and consumers haven't always embraced the tools.

  • Real-world applications beyond a few specialized fields like software programming and customer support have yet to take off.

3. The AI chip market is uniquely vulnerable to geopolitical risk. That's because Nvidia only designs its chips. They're manufactured in Taiwan by TSMC.

? Reality check: Tech giants and startups in the U.S. and around the globe continue to pour hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure, new model training and data centers.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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$100B chip investment

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) will invest an additional $100 billion to make chips in the U.S., adding to its existing $65 billion commitment in Arizona, Axios' Jessica Boehm and Nathan Bomey write.

  • Why it matters: TSMC, the world's leading chips manufacturer, wants to diversify its semiconductor manufacturing footprint outside of the political volatility in Taiwan amid tensions with China.

? TSMC, the world's biggest semiconductor manufacturer, produces chips for companies including Apple, Intel and Nvidia. The company is building three plants in Arizona. The first Arizona factory has started production.

The big picture: The announcement is part of the bipartisan U.S. national security push to increase domestic chip production and accelerate the AI economy.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Nvidia to spend hundreds of billions in U.S.
 
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang talks to a robot during the keynote at the SAP Center in San Jose on Tuesday. Photo: Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in a Financial Times interview that his company will spend hundreds of billions of dollars on chips and other electronics manufactured in the U.S. over the next four years.

Why it matters: The semiconductor giant — which surged last year to become one of the world's top most valuable companies amid the AI frenzy — is tilting its supply chain back from Asia in the face of tariff threats.

"Overall, we will procure, over the course of the next four years, probably half a trillion dollars' worth of electronics in total," Huang told the FT. "[W]e can easily see ourselves manufacturing several hundred billion of it here in the U.S."

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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NVIDIA to Manufacture American-Made AI Supercomputers in US for First Time

NVIDIA is working with its manufacturing partners to design and build factories that, for the first time, will produce NVIDIA AI supercomputers entirely in the U.S.

https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/nvidia-manufacture-american-made-ai-supercomputers-us/?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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AI kingpin Nvidia crowned as first public company with a $4 trillion valuation

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Silicon Valley chipmaker Nvidia on Wednesday became the first publicly traded company to surpass a $4 trillion market valuation, putting the latest exclamation point on the investor frenzy surrounding an artificial intelligence boom powered by its industry-leading processors.

https://apnews.com/article/nvidia-4-trillion-chipmaker-7947e86a7ee9a994b9f16c3c0779b74f?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Nvidia's China problem
 
Illustration of computer chips with North America, China, and Taiwan shapes on the fronts.
 

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

 

Nvidia — the biggest company in the world by market cap — reported world-beating results yesterday, Axios' Madison Mills writes.

  • The lead story of today's Wall Street Journal: "Nvidia's Sales Rise By 56% as AI Boom Rages On."
  • But export controls to China dampened its data center revenue. That's making investors nervous.

Why it matters: Nvidia is caught in the middle of a Trump trade war that could impact its earnings growth and the trajectory of the entire stock market.

  • CEO Jensen Huang sees the Chinese market as a $50 billion opportunity that could grow 50% per year.
  • That's why investors want the doors to that market to be wide open.

Keep reading.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Big advance for U.S. chip manufacturing
 
Illustration of two lines of screen shapes crossing. One has a circuitry pattern on it, and one has binary code on it.
 

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

 

Nvidia and TSMC today announced a major first step toward bringing critical chip production to the U.S., Axios' Megan Morrone reports.

  • They announced their first completed U.S.-made wafer, a foundational piece of the chips that power AI.
  • Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang is visiting TSMC's semiconductor manufacturing facility in Phoenix to announce the advance.

? The big picture: This represents some of the first fruits of the Trump administration's push to build AI technology in the U.S.

  • There's still a long way to go before the country's chip demand could be fully satisfied domestically.

Go deeper.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Nvidia's monster quarter
 
an illustration of an upward climbing arrow created out of glowing binary code
 

Illustration: Tiffany Herring/Axios

 

Nvidia — the world's biggest company, which makes chips that power AI — delivered record earnings results with revenue up 62% year-over-year, impressing even the lone analyst on Wall Street who advises investors to sell the stock, Axios Markets author Madison Mills writes.

  • Why it matters: The results and market reaction so far indicate nothing is stopping the Nvidia train.

The eye-popping numbers from Nvidia — which makes up 8% of the S&P 500 and 1% of the global market — may help ease concerns that the market is heading full speed into an AI bubble.

  • CEO Jensen Huang addressed this at the top of his remarks on the call, saying that "there's been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point, we see something very different."

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Nvidia's future is AI's future
 
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Nvidia's latest billion-dollar deal cements its status as a kind of Cornelius Vanderbilt or J.P. Morgan-style backer of the AI boom, Axios' Jeffrey Cane writes.

  • ?The company is taking a $2 billion stake in chip software designer Synopsys as part of a broader partnership.
  • ? That comes after Nvidia (with Microsoft) announced a $15 billion investment in AI developer Anthropic, one of its many recent headline-grabbing deals.

In 2024 and so far this year, Nvidia and its venture capital unit have made 117 investments totaling over $62 billion, per PitchBook.

  • ? That's a big jump from the previous two years, when it made 46 such investments totaling about $6 billion.

"This is really, really important work that we do," CEO Jensen Huang said on Nvidia's latest earnings call.

  • "All of the investments that we've done so far, all of it, period, is associated with expanding the reach of CUDA [Nvidia's parallel computing platform and programming model] and expanding the ecosystem."

? Skeptics question whether the piles of money Nvidia and others are pouring into AI infrastructure can ever be profitable.

? That arrangement is "performance-based," per UBS — unlike the speculative commitments of the dot-com era.

  • ? Nvidia's investment is contingent on OpenAI putting at least 10 gigawatts of AI data centers using Nvidia systems into operation.
  • ?️ That's a colossal and time-intensive effort, with the first gigawatt not expected until late next year.

? What's next: Investors are watching whether Nvidia's strategy will change now that Google has emerged as a legit competitor.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Scoop: Inside a Nvidia deal
 
Illustration of a hand cursor touching an AI sparkle, turning it to gold.
 

Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios

 

Shareholders in Groq, a hot AI chipmaking startup, will receive handsome payouts from the company's $20 billion deal with Nvidia, even though no equity is changing hands, Axios' Dan Primack reports.

  • Social media has been abuzz with questions about what the unusual arrangement means for Groq employees — both those heading to Nvidia and those staying put.

? Catch up quick: Groq and Nvidia on Wednesday announced a "non-exclusive licensing agreement," with media reports accurately pegging the deal value at around $20 billion.

  • The companies said that Groq CEO Jonathan Ross and president Sunny Madra would join Nvidia, while Groq would continue to operate as a standalone company led by new CEO Simon Edwards (who had been CFO).

It's an unusual structure, but the latest in a recent spate of Big AI deals that seem designed to avoid tripping antitrust wires.

The bottom line: Everyone gets paid. A lot.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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🤖 All eyes on Nvidia
 
a microchip with a money symbol cut out of the middle
 

Illustration: Tiffany Herring/Axios

 

After a dystopian vision of the AI future startled investors, tech bulls expect Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to do later today what he's regularly done in recent months — dispel fears of AI wreckage and declare the future bright, Axios' Nathan Bomey writes.

  • Why it matters: Nvidia is the darling of the AI boom, so investors will scrutinize its earnings this afternoon for clues about where the industry is headed — and whether concerns about a slowdown are justified.

🎨 The big picture: Big Tech's capital expenditures explosion is a welcome development for Nvidia. It's also unnerving investors.

  • Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft alone are expected to deliver capital spending of around $650 billion this year, up from $31 billion a decade ago.
  • Capex growth expectations in 2026 include 100% at Alphabet, 75% at Meta and 50% at Amazon, according to Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a longtime tech bull.
  • Keep reading.

👉 Citing the speed of AI advancements, Anthropic narrowed the central pledge of its flagship safety policy — a promise not to release AI models unless their safety can be guaranteed.

  • Jared Kaplan — Anthropic co-founder, chief science officer and responsible scaling officer — told TIME: "We didn't really feel, with the rapid advance of AI, that it made sense for us to make unilateral commitments … if competitors are blazing ahead."

An Anthropic spokesperson tells Axios: "We've gone a significant step further from our prior policies by committing to publicly publish detailed reports at regular intervals on our plans to strengthen our risk mitigations, as well as the threat models and capabilities of all our models." Read the blog post.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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🤑 Nvidia makes it r-AI-n
 
Animated illustration of a stock ticker with alternating sparkles and percent signs moving across it from right to left.
 

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

 

Nvidia posted record quarterly results yesterday, as CEO Jensen Huang fueled AI bulls by declaring "the agentic AI inflection point has arrived," Axios' Nathan Bomey writes.

  • Debate is swirling over the sustainability of the booming AI economy — and the chips giant is positioned squarely at the center of it.

💬 Huang dismissed bubble fears, saying that "compute equals revenues now" in what he called "this new industrial revolution."

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Nvidia's race against physics
 
An area chart showing AI chip manufacturers
Data: Epoch.ai. Chart: Axios Visuals

Nvidia's chips are improving at such a staggering pace that it defies any historical comparison, Axios Future of Energy co-author Amy Harder writes.

  • Why it matters: Without these gains, physics would slam the brakes on the data center boom.

It's like going from a Model T to a Tesla in under a decade — instead of more than a century.

  • If fuel efficiency in cars had improved as swiftly as chips, "we'd be driving to the moon and back in one gallon of gas," said Josh Parker, head of sustainability at Nvidia, the world's leader in AI computation.
  • Nvidia this week is showcasing industry innovation at GTC — the company's annual developers conference, known as AI's Super Bowl — in San Jose.

🖼️ The big picture: The AI boom runs on electricity — and Nvidia's chips determine how far that power goes.

  • Chips — flat, stamp-sized squares — are the beating heart of data centers.
  • New generations deliver dramatic gains in performance per chip, even as total AI energy demand keeps surging.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang wrote in a rare blog post last week: "Chips are being redesigned because efficiency determines how fast intelligence can scale. Energy becomes central because it sets the ceiling on how much intelligence can be produced at all."

  • Each generation of Nvidia's chips, named after famous scientists, posts massive efficiency gains over the last.

The Nvidia chip hitting the market today — called Blackwell — redesigned the whole architecture of computing to get more performance and efficiency, said Dion Harris, senior director of AI infrastructure at Nvidia.

  • Blackwell generates up to 50 times more performance per watt compared to Hopper, Nvidia's first big AI chip, introduced in 2022.

💡 Reality check: Nvidia's chips were built to train AI models, a task where raw power mattered most. But now the industry is running the models, something called inference computing, which rewards efficiency and low cost.

  • "All this inference stuff is incredibly threatening to Jensen, because it's all efficiency-driven," Paul Kedrosky, a venture investor and fellow at MIT's Initiative on the Digital Economy, told The Wall Street Journal (gift link). "He's desperately trying to find a way to extend the franchise into inference."

The bottom line: If we went from a Model T to a Tesla in the past decade, imagining what comes next — in just the next few years — feels almost absurd.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2

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