The Heat Wave

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❄️ First freeze happening later

Data: Climate Central; Map: Axios Visuals The "first freeze" — the first day of fall or winter where the temperature dips below 32 degrees — is happening later and later, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick reports. It's another indication of the effects of climate change, and it affects farmers, gardeners and allergy sufferers. Reno, Nevada (41 days later), Bend, Oregon (38 days) and Santa Maria, California (35 days) have seen the biggest first-freeze delays.

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Two more Florida corals are ‘functionally extinct’ after 2023 heatwave

MIAMI — The marine heatwave that gripped Florida in 2023 was hotter than anything Florida has seen in 150 years, and claimed at least two victims — species of corals now marked “functionally extinct” from Florida’s reefs.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2025/10/27/two-more-florida-corals-are-functionally-extinct-after-2023-heatwave/?

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Heat wave, tropical heat wave

Data: Global Forecast System. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals Forget a white Christmas. Much of America will have a white-hot Christmas, Alex Fitzpatrick writes. ?️ Christmas Day's high temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s across parts of the South and Southeast. ? Daily highs might even poke into the 80s in parts of Texas. Dozens of temperature records could be broken during the December heat wave. Some areas could see highs up to 30 degrees above normal. Temperatures will be around normal across the Northeast. ? The unusually warm temperatures come as a high-pressure system drives warm Gulf air up into the southern U.S. Blasts of warm air this late in the year aren't unheard of. Yet this particular event is "at least two to three times more likely to occur due to human-caused carbon pollution," research group Climate Central says. Via NWS Los Angeles ☔️ Meanwhile, another "atmospheric river" event is set to fuel major downpours and flooding across California this week. NWS forecasters in L.A.: "Potential flooding impacts include the threat of significant and widespread urban roadway flooding, a high risk of major rock/mudslides, and rapid rises in creeks, streams and rivers, which will likely lead to swift water rescues." ⚠️ Over 40 million people are under a flood watch as of this afternoon. ?️ Also expected: A "prolonged heavy snow event" in the Sierras. Latest forecasts and warnings.

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Arizona community hits 110 degrees, the highest March temperature recorded in the US The record-setting temperature was recorded just outside Martinez Lake, Arizona, in the Yuma Desert, as a winter heat wave scorched the Southwest, according to the National Weather Service. Read more.

Why this matters: The dangerous heat wave shattering March records all over the Southwest is more than just another extreme weather blip. It’s the latest next-level weather wildness that is occurring ever more frequently as Earth’s warming builds. Experts said unprecedented and deadly weather extremes that sometimes strike at abnormal times and in unusual places are putting more people in danger. Several cities on Thursday experienced their hottest March day on record, according to the National Weather Service.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Early Southwest heat is latest in parade of weather extremes as Earth warms   WATCH: Heat wave forecast to continue through weekend

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🌡️ Hottest March on record

Data: NOAA. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals This past March was the country's hottest in 132 years of recordkeeping, according to new federal climate data. Six of the country's 10 hottest months on record have come in the last decade. ☀️ The average temperature across the continental U.S. was about 50.9°F last month, fueled by an unusual March heat wave across the West. That's more than 9 degrees over the historic norm. More than 1,400 counties experienced their single hottest March day on record last month, dating back to 1950. 🔥 Nearly 60% of the continental U.S. faced drought conditions in March, raising fears of a particularly brutal wildfire season. Go deeper.

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Hot Niño Summer

An El Niño is expected to usher in warmer-than-usual global temperatures and fewer-than-average Atlantic hurricanes, according to meteorological reports released yesterday.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates a 61% chance that an El Niño will develop between May and July. The natural climate pattern—characterized by warmer ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific—amplifies winds in the Atlantic, which disrupts developing storms. A separate Colorado State University report predicts Atlantic hurricane activity will fall to 75% of the long-term average, with six this year. Two are anticipated to be Category 3 or higher, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Last year saw five hurricanes, including three Category 5 (winds of 157 mph or higher) and one Category 4 (130 to 156 mph winds).  Some computer models suggest the incoming El Niño could be unusually strong, with ocean temperatures rising 2 degrees Celsius or more above the long-term average. Meteorologists say this could make 2027 the warmest year on record.

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Unusual April heat wave could smash record temperatures in eastern US It could hit big cities including New York, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. The near-record temperatures are expected to last into this weekend, forecasters say. Read more.

Why this matters: Heat is the No. 1 weather-related killer in the U.S., the National Weather Service warns. Infants and young children; older adults; people with chronic medical conditions; and pregnant women are especially vulnerable to heat-related injuries and death.   The potentially dangerous heat comes after severe storms tore through Kansas, Minnesota and Wisconsin on Monday.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ WATCH: Severe storms leave damage behind in Kansas town   WATCH: Super Typhoon Sinlaku pounds remote US islands in the Pacific with ferocious winds   Colorado governor's plea for disaster aid again denied by Trump

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Dry, hot American summer

Wildfires in Brantley County, Ga., on Friday. Photo: Office of Gov. Brian Kemp via AP Georgia's devastating wildfires could be a preview of a potentially brutal fire season nationwide, Alex Fitzpatrick writes. The Highway 82 Fire and Pineland Road Fire have destroyed more than 120 homes, fueled by dry conditions, high winds and even leftover debris from 2024's Hurricane Helene. The big picture: Much of the U.S. is at least "abnormally dry" after long stretches of low precipitation, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Severe, extreme or exceptionally dry conditions prevail across much of the West, South and Southeast. Data: U.S. Drought Monitor. Map: Axios Visuals 📈 About 1.8 million acres have burned nationwide this year as of April 24, per the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). That's nearly double the year-to-date 10-year average, and the highest year-to-date figure since 2017. John Bailey, professor of silviculture and wildland fire at Oregon State University's College of Forestry, tells Axios: "Over the last few years, different states have set new records for acres burned and acres of high severity fire and homes burned." Three factors are driving those record-breaking fires, says Bailey, author of "A Walk With Wildland Fire": An "inordinate amount of fuel in the landscape," new homes in fire-prone areas that become fire fuel themselves, and longer and more severe fire seasons. 🌎 It's too soon to tie the Georgia wildfires directly to climate change. But climate change is driving longer and more intense wildfire seasons, the research group Climate Central says. 🌊 What we're watching: The severity of this year's wildfire season could depend on a potential "super El Niño." "El Niños ... can reshape global weather patterns, push temperatures to record highs, and create conditions for the devastating wildfires and smoke that have increasingly come to define West Coast summers," Axios' Kale Williams and Christine Clarridge report. Go deeper ...

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Extreme heat expected again at the Grand Canyon after 3 hikers die in heat-related incidents

GRAND CANYON NATIONAL PARK, Ariz. (AP) — Visitors to Grand Canyon National Park are being warned about extreme temperatures that will hit the popular destination early next week after a recent increase in heat-related incidents in the inner canyon, including the deaths of three hikers.

https://apnews.com/article/extreme-heat-grand-canyon-8ab303cc459a96503c46708bfc12d262?

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🌡️ Heat wave coming

Graphic: NOAA A "heat dome" is forecast to bring dangerously high temperatures to much of the eastern half of the U.S. next week. The extreme heat could last through July 4 celebrations. NOAA forecasters write: "Widespread temperatures into the 90s to low 100s, combined with high humidity, will result in heat indices approaching or exceeding 105-110 in many places." "Overnight lows will also be quite warm, with some record high minimums possible, bringing little to no relief from the heat in the nighttime hours." ⚠️ Cities from Minneapolis and Chicago to Nashville and Atlanta will be under extreme heat risk next week, NOAA says. Such conditions affect "anyone without cooling/hydration as well as health systems, industries, and infrastructure." 🥵 Meanwhile: The heat wave baking Europe this week wouldn't be possible without climate change, a World Weather Attribution rapid study found.

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🌡️ Mapped: Holiday heat wave

Map: National Weather Service This map shows a dangerous heat wave building across the U.S. and creeping east ahead of the holiday weekend. More than 160 million Americans — about half the country — are under a heat advisory, watch or warning. The National Weather Service warns that the extreme heat will peak in the Midwest with triple-digit temperatures from today through Thursday. Then it slides into the East for July Fourth. Go deeper: What's causing the heat wave.

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Under the heat dome

Data: Global Forecast System; Map: Erin Davis/Axios Over 142 million Americans are under extreme heat warnings as the eastern half of the country keeps roasting under a "heat dome." ☀️ The National Weather Service's latest forecast calls for peak heat indices of 100-115 degrees "across portions of lower Mississippi Valley into the Northeast." "The combination of daytime heat and little overnight relief ... will lead to widespread areas of major to extreme HeatRisk from the Midwest to the East Coast." ⚠️ Threat level: The elderly, outdoor workers, people with preexisting health conditions and those without adequate cooling are all at risk of heat-related illness. "Heat dome," explained. Heat wave Today marks the peak of a dangerous heat wave as the hottest air shifts into the Mid-Atlantic and East Coast ahead of the July 4 weekend. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 90s and low 100s from Washington, DC, to Boston, with humidity pushing "feels like" temperatures as high as 110 degrees or more. See the latest US heat risk forecast.

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Finding freedom from the heat on July 4th will be a challenge in eastern US Dangerous, record-breaking heat will continue across much of the central and eastern U.S. through Friday and will continue along the East Coast through the weekend, the National Weather Service said Thursday. Read more.

What to know: Temperatures in the high 90s were forecast for the Northeast; New York and Boston both hit 100 degrees Thursday. Humidity is expected to make it feel even hotter. Some communities have canceled, postponed or otherwise changed their Independence Day plans.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ How to stay cool in a heat wave   This air conditioning strategy is the sweet spot for saving energy and money, experts say    Heat adds to strains on areas with data centers, raising the temperature on AI debates    Eastern heat threatens World Cup players and fans

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🌡️ Mapped: Heat wave repeat

Data: GFS, NCEI. (Average highs calculated from 1991-2020 data.) Map: Erin Davis/Axios Another heat wave is bringing dangerously high temperatures from the Great Plains to the Northeast early this week, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick writes. NOAA forecasters expect record-breaking highs of 95° to 105° across the northern Plains, Midwest and Northeast through midweek. Over 128 million Americans are under a heat warning, watch or advisory.

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No relief from the heat as many US cities will see record overnight temperatures

Another week of blistering heat will bring even more health risks in the coming days, as overnight temperatures won’t provide much relief.

https://apnews.com/article/heat-dome-record-temperatures-fb7664f71743f71beca4ce7447562ca2?

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Americans grapple with extreme heat

Reproduced from AP. Chart: Axios Visuals Greater shares of Americans now say that extreme heat is affecting parts of day-to-day life compared to just two years ago, Alex Fitzpatrick writes from a new poll. The findings, from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, suggest people are increasingly aware of extreme heat's impact on their health, budgets, travel plans and more. 🌡️ By the numbers: 90% of Americans now say that extreme heat has had at least a minor impact on their lives broadly, up from 83% two years ago. 80% say extreme heat has had at least a minor impact on their power bills, up from 69% in 2024. 68% say it's affecting their outdoor activities, up from 57%. 42% say it's affecting their travel or vacation plans, up from 26%. A youth football coach amid a July 2026 heat wave in Chicago. Photo: Octavio Jones/AFP via Getty Images 🥵 Zoom in: The bumps were driven in part by people in the West and Midwest, both of which have recently been hit by dangerous and deadly extreme heat events. There's also a partisan divide, with Democrats more likely than Republicans to say that heat has had a major impact on the parts of life included in the survey. 🌎 Between the lines: Researchers have found that climate change is making extreme heat events more frequent and more intense. Yet the share of Americans who say that climate change is happening is dropping: 66% said so in this latest survey, down from 73% in September 2025. Go deeper ... See the data.

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It's brutal out there

Data: NCEI, NWS; Note: Values shown are the averages of major airports in each metro area. Typical range is the 10th–90th percentiles; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Downright nasty humidity levels are plaguing the East Coast today, along with high temperatures — and they could last for days in some places, Alex Fitzpatrick and Erin Davis report. 🥵 A high-pressure system along the East Coast is pulling tropical air up from the Caribbean, making cities like D.C. and New York feel more like Miami or San Juan. Heat advisories are in place along the Northeast Corridor, which also faces a chance of thunderstorms today. ⚠️ High temperatures combined with high humidity can be deeply unpleasant and potentially dangerous, making it difficult to stay hydrated and for our bodies to regulate their temperature. People in affected areas should seek out A/C, drink plenty of water and limit strenuous activity outside. What we're watching: National Weather Service forecasters are eyeing a cold front late next week that could bring relief from the heat and humidity — but also severe weather as it passes. 🌡️ The other side: The western half of the country is dealing with dangerously hot temperatures, with daytime highs in the triple digits in some places. Meanwhile, high pressure is blocking wildfire smoke from clearing out, leading to bad air quality in the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West over the next few days. Get the forecast.

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Contiguous US breaks its record for hottest month ever, NOAA says

KENSINGTON, Maryland (AP) — The contiguous United States sizzled to its hottest month ever last month, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

https://apnews.com/article/hottest-month-july-climate-change-4a9d612281485356103631f0f09b61af?

Hottest month ever recorded

Reproduced from NOAA. Chart: Axios Visuals July was the hottest month on record for the contiguous U.S., Alex Fitzpatrick reports from new federal data dating back to 1895. Last month's average temperature was 76.89°F, topping the 76.77°F mark set in July 1936. That's 3.3°F warmer than the 1901-2000 average. 🌡️ NOAA said in its monthly report: "Above-average temperatures covered the entire [contiguous U.S.], with all states ranking in the warmest third of their July temperature records and none ranking near or below average." July brought a series of "heat domes" across the country that trapped warm air beneath them, fueling several extreme heat events. Researchers have found that climate change is making extreme heat events more common and more intense — but they're also linked to phenomena and patterns like El Niño. Go deeper. Boats stranded in a Serbian marina along the Danube River on Aug. 7. Photo: Andrej Isakovic/AFP via Getty Images 📉 Meanwhile: Water levels along Europe's Danube River are at record lows after prolonged heat and drought. The phenomenon has exposed the remains of an ancient Roman-era bridge and dozens of German World War II warships. 🥵 What's next: Europe is bracing for yet another heat wave after a summer already marked by record-setting highs. Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, tells AP: "This is a clear example of how climate change is intensifying heat extremes, with heat and drought increasingly reinforcing one another." Read more.

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On the front lines of extreme weather

In recent weeks, devastating wildfires and relentless heat waves have gripped parts of the world. Climate statistics show that so far this is the third-hottest year globally, behind 2024 and 2025. Today we are joined by Peter Prengaman, the AP’s Global Climate and Environmental News Director, to learn more about what it’s like reporting as the climate changes.

What key challenges do our reporters face when covering wildfires?   As each country and U.S. state manages wildfires differently, access can be a big challenge depending on where a wildfire is happening. Journalists can’t always get close, which limits on-the-ground reporting, photos and video. If journalists can access a fire, there are then many other challenges around safety. From the risk of flames to breathing the smoke, fires are dangerous to cover.    Another challenge is keeping readers’ interest over what can be multiple months. When houses are consumed and people die, a fire can get a lot of attention. But between those moments can be weeks. A fire is still burning, thousands may be evacuated, but how do we continue telling this important story in a way that readers still pay attention?

Want to know more? Make a recurring gift to join Peter and other AP journalists on Aug. 19 for an exclusive conversation about their experience covering extreme weather up close.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Extreme heat and drought take a toll around the world, in photos  Western Canada fights growing wildfires as thousands more told to be ready to leave  Wildfire at Indonesia’s Mount Bromo mostly contained as smoke forces school closures