The Heat Wave

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❄️ First freeze happening later

Data: Climate Central; Map: Axios Visuals The "first freeze" — the first day of fall or winter where the temperature dips below 32 degrees — is happening later and later, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick reports. It's another indication of the effects of climate change, and it affects farmers, gardeners and allergy sufferers. Reno, Nevada (41 days later), Bend, Oregon (38 days) and Santa Maria, California (35 days) have seen the biggest first-freeze delays.

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Two more Florida corals are ‘functionally extinct’ after 2023 heatwave

MIAMI — The marine heatwave that gripped Florida in 2023 was hotter than anything Florida has seen in 150 years, and claimed at least two victims — species of corals now marked “functionally extinct” from Florida’s reefs.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2025/10/27/two-more-florida-corals-are-functionally-extinct-after-2023-heatwave/?

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Heat wave, tropical heat wave

Data: Global Forecast System. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals Forget a white Christmas. Much of America will have a white-hot Christmas, Alex Fitzpatrick writes. ?️ Christmas Day's high temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s across parts of the South and Southeast. ? Daily highs might even poke into the 80s in parts of Texas. Dozens of temperature records could be broken during the December heat wave. Some areas could see highs up to 30 degrees above normal. Temperatures will be around normal across the Northeast. ? The unusually warm temperatures come as a high-pressure system drives warm Gulf air up into the southern U.S. Blasts of warm air this late in the year aren't unheard of. Yet this particular event is "at least two to three times more likely to occur due to human-caused carbon pollution," research group Climate Central says. Via NWS Los Angeles ☔️ Meanwhile, another "atmospheric river" event is set to fuel major downpours and flooding across California this week. NWS forecasters in L.A.: "Potential flooding impacts include the threat of significant and widespread urban roadway flooding, a high risk of major rock/mudslides, and rapid rises in creeks, streams and rivers, which will likely lead to swift water rescues." ⚠️ Over 40 million people are under a flood watch as of this afternoon. ?️ Also expected: A "prolonged heavy snow event" in the Sierras. Latest forecasts and warnings.

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Arizona community hits 110 degrees, the highest March temperature recorded in the US The record-setting temperature was recorded just outside Martinez Lake, Arizona, in the Yuma Desert, as a winter heat wave scorched the Southwest, according to the National Weather Service. Read more.

Why this matters: The dangerous heat wave shattering March records all over the Southwest is more than just another extreme weather blip. It’s the latest next-level weather wildness that is occurring ever more frequently as Earth’s warming builds. Experts said unprecedented and deadly weather extremes that sometimes strike at abnormal times and in unusual places are putting more people in danger. Several cities on Thursday experienced their hottest March day on record, according to the National Weather Service.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Early Southwest heat is latest in parade of weather extremes as Earth warms   WATCH: Heat wave forecast to continue through weekend

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🌡️ Hottest March on record

Data: NOAA. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals This past March was the country's hottest in 132 years of recordkeeping, according to new federal climate data. Six of the country's 10 hottest months on record have come in the last decade. ☀️ The average temperature across the continental U.S. was about 50.9°F last month, fueled by an unusual March heat wave across the West. That's more than 9 degrees over the historic norm. More than 1,400 counties experienced their single hottest March day on record last month, dating back to 1950. 🔥 Nearly 60% of the continental U.S. faced drought conditions in March, raising fears of a particularly brutal wildfire season. Go deeper.

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Hot Niño Summer

An El Niño is expected to usher in warmer-than-usual global temperatures and fewer-than-average Atlantic hurricanes, according to meteorological reports released yesterday.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates a 61% chance that an El Niño will develop between May and July. The natural climate pattern—characterized by warmer ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific—amplifies winds in the Atlantic, which disrupts developing storms. A separate Colorado State University report predicts Atlantic hurricane activity will fall to 75% of the long-term average, with six this year. Two are anticipated to be Category 3 or higher, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Last year saw five hurricanes, including three Category 5 (winds of 157 mph or higher) and one Category 4 (130 to 156 mph winds).  Some computer models suggest the incoming El Niño could be unusually strong, with ocean temperatures rising 2 degrees Celsius or more above the long-term average. Meteorologists say this could make 2027 the warmest year on record.

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Unusual April heat wave could smash record temperatures in eastern US It could hit big cities including New York, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. The near-record temperatures are expected to last into this weekend, forecasters say. Read more.

Why this matters: Heat is the No. 1 weather-related killer in the U.S., the National Weather Service warns. Infants and young children; older adults; people with chronic medical conditions; and pregnant women are especially vulnerable to heat-related injuries and death.   The potentially dangerous heat comes after severe storms tore through Kansas, Minnesota and Wisconsin on Monday.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ WATCH: Severe storms leave damage behind in Kansas town   WATCH: Super Typhoon Sinlaku pounds remote US islands in the Pacific with ferocious winds   Colorado governor's plea for disaster aid again denied by Trump

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Dry, hot American summer

Wildfires in Brantley County, Ga., on Friday. Photo: Office of Gov. Brian Kemp via AP Georgia's devastating wildfires could be a preview of a potentially brutal fire season nationwide, Alex Fitzpatrick writes. The Highway 82 Fire and Pineland Road Fire have destroyed more than 120 homes, fueled by dry conditions, high winds and even leftover debris from 2024's Hurricane Helene. The big picture: Much of the U.S. is at least "abnormally dry" after long stretches of low precipitation, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Severe, extreme or exceptionally dry conditions prevail across much of the West, South and Southeast. Data: U.S. Drought Monitor. Map: Axios Visuals 📈 About 1.8 million acres have burned nationwide this year as of April 24, per the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). That's nearly double the year-to-date 10-year average, and the highest year-to-date figure since 2017. John Bailey, professor of silviculture and wildland fire at Oregon State University's College of Forestry, tells Axios: "Over the last few years, different states have set new records for acres burned and acres of high severity fire and homes burned." Three factors are driving those record-breaking fires, says Bailey, author of "A Walk With Wildland Fire": An "inordinate amount of fuel in the landscape," new homes in fire-prone areas that become fire fuel themselves, and longer and more severe fire seasons. 🌎 It's too soon to tie the Georgia wildfires directly to climate change. But climate change is driving longer and more intense wildfire seasons, the research group Climate Central says. 🌊 What we're watching: The severity of this year's wildfire season could depend on a potential "super El Niño." "El Niños ... can reshape global weather patterns, push temperatures to record highs, and create conditions for the devastating wildfires and smoke that have increasingly come to define West Coast summers," Axios' Kale Williams and Christine Clarridge report. Go deeper ...