GOP braces for "World War III"-level spending fight

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House conservatives who have mostly backed Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) are privately warning that they're paranoid of budgetary gimmicks instead of significant cuts in the coming appropriations bills, Axios' Juliegrace Brufke reports.

Why it matters: One GOP lawmaker told Axios they expect the spending fight to be "World War III," with multiple GOP sources doubtful that Congress will pass all 12 appropriations bills by Sept. 30 to avoid a government shutdown.

• The debt ceiling deal between McCarthy and President Biden — which would set discretionary spending caps at $1.59 trillion for fiscal year 2024 — included clawbacks to COVID spending and IRS funding.
• House conservatives wanted deeper cuts, and the deal had to be passed with significant Democratic support. They're now wary that McCarthy may try to repeat this dynamic.

Zoom in: A recent poll taken during a meeting of the Republican Study Committee, the largest conservative caucus in Congress, showed 78% of respondents are not supportive of relying on rescissions — in this case the clawbacks from the debt ceiling deal — to get to desired spending levels.

• "Folks ... want real spending cuts, and this place is famous for math that never really quite works out," RSC Chairman Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) told Axios.
• Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.) — a McCarthy ally who served as a key negotiator in the debt ceiling deal — argued that the use of rescissions should not be taken off the table.

What to watch: McCarthy recently said he won't combine the 12 spending bills into a single omnibus package, a practice that has infuriated conservatives in the past. But he hasn't ruled out grouping the bills into several "minibuses" if necessary to avoid a shutdown.

• Conservatives want the appropriations bills passed individually with the ability to be amended.
• "We're not going to know what our final number is or how close we are to that $1.471 trillion unless we actually know what the [12 appropriations bills] are," a GOP member told Axios.

The bottom line: Multiple members of the House GOP conference acknowledged that McCarthy has beaten the odds on passing key pieces of legislation while dealing with a narrow majority.

• "Kevin survives hour by hour. He's done a good job and he's surprised even his detractors," a senior Republican told Axios.
• "But his strategy is to survive the day, so there's a conflict that is inevitable. The trains are going to go off the tracks — we just don't know whether it’ll happen this week, three weeks, three months or whatever."

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? Scoop: Moderates' abortion rebellion

Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios

In a sign of just how fraught the spending fight is becoming, anti-abortion measures are already complicating McCarthy's efforts to pass appropriations bills before the potential October shutdown, Axios' Andrew Solender and Victoria Knight report. Driving the news: Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) told Axios he opposes a bill funding the Department of Agriculture over a provision reversing FDA guidance that allows the abortion pill mifepristone to be sent by mail and dispensed at retail pharmacies. Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-N.Y.) suggested the concern is shared by freshman Republicans from New York, most of whom represent districts Biden won in 2020. Molinaro and D'Esposito both spoke out against a judge's ruling in April banning mifepristone, as did Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), another Biden-district freshman, and Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), who has warned of the electoral consequences of her party's abortion moves. The big picture: Spending bills that fund the Departments of Defense, State, Health and Human Services, Veterans Affairs and Homeland Security also have provisions that would ban the use federal funds for abortion. The HHS bill includes a provision that completely eliminates funds to clinics such as Planned Parenthood that provide family planning services. Yes, but: The National Defense Authorization Act passed last week despite concerns of a moderate revolt over a measure blocking a Pentagon policy reimbursing service-members for abortion-related expenses. Moderate Reps. John Duarte (R-Calif.) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) voted against including the abortion amendment but ultimately ended up voting for the final bill. But restricting mifepristone goes much further than restricting federal funds for abortion, putting a larger group of Republican moderates from blue and purple districts in a bind.