Congress: The Senate & The House

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😱 Nightmares turn real

Majority Leader John Thune and Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer are living out their Senate nightmares — with nominees they didn't want and former colleagues they no longer control.

Why it matters: Together, Schumer and Thune are stuck with five Senate races in which their party establishments thought they had a better chance of winning with someone else.

• 🤠 Texas: Thune's efforts to stop Ken Paxton from winning the nomination failed. Now Republicans are spending more than $329 million to defeat James Talarico— and it's still a nail-biter.
• 🍑 Georgia: GOP leaders couldn't convince Gov. Brian Kemp to run. The eventual nominee, Rep. Mike Collins, has struggled to keep pace with fundraising juggernaut Sen. Jon Ossoff. GOP money is in retreat.
• 🦞 Maine: Schumer endorsed Gov. Janet Mills, but Graham Platner's implosion left Democrats with backup Troy Jackson against Sen. Susan Collins.
• ⛴️ Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens and made a name for himself nationally. But he won by just one point even though primary polls showed him up by double digits. He's now polling within the margin of error against the GOP nominee, former Rep. Mike Rogers.
• 🏈 Minnesota: Peggy Flanagan ran as a progressive, said she would not support Schumer as leader and bested establishment-backed Rep. Angie Craig. But Cook Political Report moved her race against former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya toward Republicans even as it shifted other races toward Democrats.

To make matters worse, Thune's and Schumer's former colleagues are creating fresh headaches by boosting candidates across the aisle.

• Former Sen. Joe Manchin, who flipped to independent in 2024 after being elected as a Senate Democrat, is campaigning for Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), as Semafor reported.
• Former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who also flipped from Democrat to independent before leaving office, is boosting Republican Jay Feely in her home House district. She even voted for him in the GOP primary, as Axios scooped.
• Former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) endorsed Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in his reelection this summer.

The other side: In two red states, Schumer landed arguably the best candidates he could get.

• Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper has all but put North Carolina to bed, and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is keeping it too close for Sen. Jon Husted's comfort in Ohio.

— Stef Kight

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💫 Johnson's polarizing star

The House Freedom Caucus is flirting with an identity crisis, including some members privately discussing whether to try booting freshman Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas), four sources familiar with the conversations tell us.

• At least 10 of HFC's more than two dozen members will not return next term, including some of its most prominent voices.

Why it matters: Gill is a prolific fundraiser, Fox News loves him, he's launched an ambitious bid to lead Republicans on House Oversight and leadership sees him as the future. But some of his colleagues say he's using them as a stepping stone.

• "He's not really in the Freedom Caucus. He's just using it for conservative bona fides," one HFC member told us.
• The caucus is "livid" at Gill, another HFC member told us.
• "Congressman Gill is laser-focused on getting out the vote and ensuring Republicans hold the majority this November," a spokesperson for Gill told us in a statement.

Zoom in: Members say Gill benefited from introductions to HFC donors but hasn't adequately financially supported fellow members in difficult races.

• "For those of us who have been in meetings, who have been in the tough votes over the last two years, he's been MIA," one HFC member said, adding he's "totally looking for the ladder climbing."
• Gill raised $4.7 million in the third quarter, a massive haul for a freshman member. He's in an R+11 district.
• Gill's office pointed out he's given to over a dozen HFC members' campaigns.

What they're saying: Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) accused the media of "ginning up stories about Republicans based on anonymous sources," insisting the group is "united and laser-focused" on advancing Trump's agenda.

• "I'm not frustrated with Brandon at all," Rep. Mark Harris (R-N.C.), also a freshman member of the caucus and no relation to Andy Harris, told us. "He comes to meetings. I don't know why they feel like he doesn't."

The bottom line: "HFC is its own worst enemy sometimes," one GOP member told us. "They've managed to kick out, alienate some of their members that help them fundraise."

— Kate Santaliz

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⚠️ Big impeachment shift

Some of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' most vocal left-wing lawmakers are starting to sound like his leadership team when it comes to impeaching President Trump.

Why it matters: If that lukewarm sentiment holds, Jeffries will have a much easier time keeping his caucus from breaking ranks if he pursues a more deliberative approach to impeachment — or no impeachment at all.

• Even Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), whose infamous "impeach the motherf***er" quote in 2019 was used by Republicans to undermine Trump's impeachments, is getting in line.
• She told us in a statement yesterday: "No matter what happens in November, we'll still have a Trump administration for the next two years to hold accountable."

Driving the news: Likely incoming Democratic House members Darializa Avila Chevalier of New York and Melat Kiros of Colorado struck a similar tone in a recent podcast interview when asked about impeaching Trump.

• "I support accountability, but ... that is something that Trump himself seems to want," said Avila Chevalier.
• "My question is: Is that actually going to be meaningful accountability for the Trump administration?"
• Said Kiros: "The accountability has to actually lead to some material changes."

What we're hearing: "Impeachment can't just be a political messaging strategy," Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.), who has advocated a day-one impeachment, told us in an interview.

• "I think the American people are tired of theater," said Adam Hamawy, another likely Democratic House member from New Jersey. He told us any impeachment proceedings need to be "a real process with substance, rather than just getting up there and just making a show of it."

The big picture: Democrats have had a tortured relationship with impeachment since Trump returned to office last year.

• After impeaching Trump twice in his first term only to see him acquitted both times by the Senate and then reelected in 2024, even the most ardently anti-Trump Democrats came into last year recoiling at the mere mention of another impeachment.
• But they quickly found themselves buffeted by a grassroots base furious about the second Trump administration's precedent-shattering moves and demanding Democrats use every tool at their disposal to fight back.

The intrigue: Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) — who tried to force impeachment votes three times last year — and Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.), who championed impeaching Trump in his second term, have both lost reelection bids this year.

• The party base has turned away from anti-Trump #resistance crusaders in favor of more broadly anti-establishment, left-wing ideologues, as we previously reported.

What's next: The House could soon vote on an impeachment resolution against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, triggered by Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) just before lawmakers left for October recess.

• "I do think that holding Pete Hegseth [accountable] and looking into the ways in which our governing bodies have failed to meet the standards, the laws ... is all part of holding this government accountable," said Rep. Analilia Mejia (D-N.J.).

— Andrew Solender