Congress: The Senate & The House

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🧊 Reforms on ice

House Speaker Mike Johnson's decision to cancel two weeks of September workdays is threatening to delay a bipartisan push to crack down on sexual misconduct in Congress, the lead Democrat on the bipartisan task force tells us.

Why it matters: The House task force created to address sexual misconduct had hoped to unveil legislation this month after having already pushed back its initial goal of releasing a bill before the August recess.

• But Johnson's new schedule means the House will be in session for just one more week before lawmakers leave Washington to campaign ahead of the November midterms.
• 🗓️ The shortened calendar gives members eager to hit the campaign trail more time in their districts but leaves lawmakers with little time to finish remaining legislative business.

The reforms are "something that everybody wants," Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández (D-N.M.), the lead Democrat on the task force, told us.

• "We have bipartisan support for it. But when you cancel legislative days, it shrinks our ability to get that work done," she added.
• The week of Sept. 14 is now scheduled to be the only one in session until after the midterms.
• Yes, but: Being out of session does not preclude the task force from releasing their recommendations or legislation, a senior Republican staffer told Axios.
• Lawmakers often introduce legislation when Congress is out of session.

📝 Catch up quick: The bipartisan task force, created this year amid a string of allegations involving members of Congress, is examining potential changes to the chamber's rules surrounding sexual misconduct.

• Leger Fernández said the task force heard from dozens of male and female congressional staffers this week in what she described as the final round of feedback needed before moving to legislative text.
• Kammack told us Tuesday — before Johnson canceled session time — that the group was still on track to release legislative text this month.
• "When we take away two weeks of the September legislative calendar, that puts a little strain on it," Leger Fernández said.

🔎 Zoom in: The task force members are now moving to draft legislative text and will discuss the compressed timeline with Johnson and the Office of Legislative Counsel, Leger Fernández said.

• Potential reforms under discussion include changes to reporting systems, retaliation protections, increases in education and training resources, and a ban on lawmaker-staff relations.
• "There's still strong commitment to get it done," she said. "We'll keep pushing to see how we get it done." 

— Kate Santaliz

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🛑 Bernie floats superintelligence ban

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) announced new legislation yesterday calling for a permanent ban on superintelligence alongside a renewed demand for a pause on advanced AI development, Axios' Josephine Walker reports.

• "If the leaders of the major AI companies acknowledge that they are losing control of their extremely dangerous technology, it is irresponsible for society to allow them to move forward and make these products even more advanced," Sanders said in his announcement.

Why it matters: Sanders is the first prominent American politician to call for an outright ban on superintelligence — and he did so on the day of Astra's release. His announcement also referenced the Hugging Face attack.

Between the lines: Sanders' decision to stake out a position on superintelligence puts him at the forefront of an emerging political debate, in a way that doesn't totally align with the traditional left-right spectrum.

• He's siding with "doomers," who worry that super-advanced AI could bring about a literal apocalypse — a position contemplated by a significant faction within the AI community, including its top leaders.
• Others argue that doomerism is itself another form of hype for the AI industry, and that society should focus on the tech's human-scale impact.
• That same political realignment is already showing up in the politics surrounding data centers, where Sanders and Steve Bannon have found common political cause against them.

The bottom line: Even if Sanders' efforts go nowhere, it shows that he believes there's an audience hungry for much more aggressive policymaking on AI.

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🚨 Another GOP warning sign

Illustration: Brendan Lynch / Axios. Stock: Getty Images

Another warning light is blinking for Senate Republicans: underperforming gubernatorial nominees in three crucial Midwest states. Why it matters: Strong candidates for governor can act as sheepdogs in tight Senate races, keeping Republican voters — and GOP-curious independents — moving in the party's direction. 😉 That's adding to GOP anxiety in Michigan and Iowa, where the Democratic gubernatorial nominees have led for much of the summer. In Ohio — a state President Trump won by 11 points — the governor's race is tied. By the numbers: In Iowa, state Auditor Rob Sand (D) leads state Rep. Zach Lahn (R) 49.3% to 45.3%, according to 270toWin's polling average. In Michigan, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) leads Rep. John James (R-Mich.) by an average of 50.2% to 42.4% across the last five polls. In Ohio, former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy leads former state health director Amy Acton (D) by just half a point, 48% to 47.5%, in an average of two August polls. The other side: The gubernatorial map isn't flashing warnings everywhere for Senate Republicans. 💪 Republicans are enthusiastic about Georgia, where the race between former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) and health care executive Rick Jackson (R) is tight, but Jackson is expected to spend heavily in the final months. In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) 47.2% to 43.7%, according to 270toWin. And in New Hampshire, Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) leads former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D) by an average of 49% to 38.5%. 🤔 The intrigue: In Ohio, Michigan and New Hampshire, the governor's race is at the top of the ticket, potentially creating a stronger draft for the Senate candidates behind them. In Iowa, Texas and Georgia, it's the Senate contest that gets top billing, potentially limiting the gubernatorial candidates' coattails. 🌎 Zoom out: In previous midterm cycles, strong GOP gubernatorial candidates have run well ahead of their Senate counterparts. 🤠 In Texas in 2018, Abbott won by 13 percentage points while Sen. Ted Cruz (R) squeaked past Beto O'Rourke by fewer than 3. 🌽 In 2022, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) won by nearly 19 points as Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) won by 12. 🐊 In Florida that year, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) cruised to victory by 19 points as Sen. Marco Rubio (R) won by 16. 🔎 Zoom in: Coattails aren't tow ropes, and split decisions between the gubernatorial and Senate contests do happen, though they are more common in non-presidential years. In 2022, six of the 26 states that held both gubernatorial and Senate elections chose winners from different parties. But two years later, with Trump on the ticket, none of the nine states holding both contests split between Democrats and Republicans, although independent Sen. Bernie Sanders won alongside Republican Gov. Phil Scott in Vermont. ⚡️ The bottom line: Republicans don't need to win every governor's mansion to hold the Senate, but losing badly in Michigan, Iowa or Ohio would make three already tight Senate races that much harder. — Hans Nichols

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Progressives' newest weapon

After winning an upset primary victory over a field of better-funded, establishment-backed rivals, Rep. Analilia Mejia (D-N.J.) is launching a super PAC to help other progressive underdogs do the same, we have learned.

Why it matters: Mejia is adding to a growing constellation of new progressive super PACs trying to compete with cash-rich groups like AIPAC that back more moderate Democrats in primaries.

• It's all part of a strategy that has helped the left pull off a series of high-profile primary victories this election cycle over incumbents and establishment favorites.
• "We're ready to build a new class of unbought, unbossed candidates who will refuse corporate PAC money and will stand for the values that the American people are demanding," Mejia said in a statement.

Driving the news: Mejia's group, Unbought, Unbossed PAC, will train and fund "working-class and underrepresented community leaders" running for office, according to a press release first shared with us.

• It will also provide "voter education resources and voter protection training" and build "a nationwide community of candidates, organizers, and local leaders who can learn from one another and organize beyond any single election."
• "Unbought, Unbossed PAC is about finding the next generation of leaders who are already fighting for their communities and giving them the tools to run, organize, and win," Mejia said.

Catch up quick: Mejia defeated nearly a dozen Democratic primary rivals in a February special election to succeed New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill in Congress.

• The former progressive organizer was outraised by five of her primary rivals, bringing in just $420,000 to the $1.2 million raised by former Rep. Tom Malinowski, who finished second.
• Mejia's victory was widely considered an upset and was inadvertently spurred, at least in part, by AIPAC spending $2.3 million against Malinowski.

👀 What to watch: The super PAC will support only candidates who refuse to take corporate PAC money and who support banning members of Congress from trading stocks, according to the press release.

— Andrew Solender

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Blue wave math

Data: The Downballot and Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Map: Kavya Beheraj/Axios Redistricting has helped House Republicans build a seawall that can withstand a roughly 5-point Democratic wave. Why it matters: Early readings are pointing to something twice that size — enough to wash away the GOP House majority, Axios' Hans Nichols reports. Democrats have been running roughly 10 points ahead of their 2024 presidential performance in special elections this year. A swing of that magnitude would produce a comfortable 230-205 Democratic majority, according to an Axios analysis of how the battle for the House would play out under different electoral scenarios. 🖊 Between the lines: Gerrymandering since the presidential election has given Republicans more breathing room, with GOP-drawn maps creating a net advantage of roughly nine seats. But some of those newly redrawn GOP seats rest on a potentially shaky assumption: that the 2026 electorate will look much like that of 2024. A national swing toward Democrats like the one in Trump's first midterm would overwhelm the GOP's redistricting defenses. The other side: If Republicans outperform Trump's 2024 numbers by 5 points across congressional districts, the new maps would give them a massive 253-182 majority. If 2026 simply looks like 2024 — with GOP candidates winning every district Trump would've carried under the new maps, including Trump districts where Democrats held on in 2024 — Republicans would net 16 seats, producing a 236-199 majority. 🏛 State of play: Two months before Election Day, Democrats can taste the House majority, provided two conditions hold: President Trump remains unpopular, and vulnerable Republicans stay close to him. They're privately giddy that Republicans are encouraging vulnerable incumbents to attend this week's GOP midterm convention in Dallas and lash themselves to the mast of HMS Trump. 💰 Republicans are banking on their massive money advantage and a Supreme Court ruling that allows them to coordinate their campaign dollars with individual candidates.

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Hakeem Jeffries' next fight

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) faces mounting behind-the-scenes frustration from progressive lawmakers and candidates that's likely to burst into public view after the midterm elections, Axios' Andrew Solender writes. Why it matters: An influx of Democratic Socialists of America-aligned members in January will compound latent distrust of Jeffries that's festering in some corners of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. 🔎 Zoom in: Jeffries has made several recent moves that left Progressive Caucus members fuming, according to multiple lawmakers, candidates and aides. Medicare for All: Jeffries said on NBC's "Meet the Press" last month that Medicare for All is "not legislation ... that I support." He said in a later radio interview that he supports universal coverage, but there are "different paths" to get there. Kushner meeting: Jeffries' sit-down with President Trump's son-in-law rankled progressive groups. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) told reporters: "I don't know what that was about." Rule change: A proposal to penalize members who don't pay their dues to the party's campaign arm, or who break with leadership on procedural votes, was seen by progressives as a preemptive attempt to cut off dissent from the left.