Congress: The Senate & The House

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😱 Nightmares turn real

Majority Leader John Thune and Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer are living out their Senate nightmares — with nominees they didn't want and former colleagues they no longer control.

Why it matters: Together, Schumer and Thune are stuck with five Senate races in which their party establishments thought they had a better chance of winning with someone else.

• 🤠 Texas: Thune's efforts to stop Ken Paxton from winning the nomination failed. Now Republicans are spending more than $329 million to defeat James Talarico— and it's still a nail-biter.
• 🍑 Georgia: GOP leaders couldn't convince Gov. Brian Kemp to run. The eventual nominee, Rep. Mike Collins, has struggled to keep pace with fundraising juggernaut Sen. Jon Ossoff. GOP money is in retreat.
• 🦞 Maine: Schumer endorsed Gov. Janet Mills, but Graham Platner's implosion left Democrats with backup Troy Jackson against Sen. Susan Collins.
• ⛴️ Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens and made a name for himself nationally. But he won by just one point even though primary polls showed him up by double digits. He's now polling within the margin of error against the GOP nominee, former Rep. Mike Rogers.
• 🏈 Minnesota: Peggy Flanagan ran as a progressive, said she would not support Schumer as leader and bested establishment-backed Rep. Angie Craig. But Cook Political Report moved her race against former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya toward Republicans even as it shifted other races toward Democrats.

To make matters worse, Thune's and Schumer's former colleagues are creating fresh headaches by boosting candidates across the aisle.

• Former Sen. Joe Manchin, who flipped to independent in 2024 after being elected as a Senate Democrat, is campaigning for Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), as Semafor reported.
• Former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who also flipped from Democrat to independent before leaving office, is boosting Republican Jay Feely in her home House district. She even voted for him in the GOP primary, as Axios scooped.
• Former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) endorsed Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in his reelection this summer.

The other side: In two red states, Schumer landed arguably the best candidates he could get.

• Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper has all but put North Carolina to bed, and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is keeping it too close for Sen. Jon Husted's comfort in Ohio.

— Stef Kight

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💫 Johnson's polarizing star

The House Freedom Caucus is flirting with an identity crisis, including some members privately discussing whether to try booting freshman Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas), four sources familiar with the conversations tell us.

• At least 10 of HFC's more than two dozen members will not return next term, including some of its most prominent voices.

Why it matters: Gill is a prolific fundraiser, Fox News loves him, he's launched an ambitious bid to lead Republicans on House Oversight and leadership sees him as the future. But some of his colleagues say he's using them as a stepping stone.

• "He's not really in the Freedom Caucus. He's just using it for conservative bona fides," one HFC member told us.
• The caucus is "livid" at Gill, another HFC member told us.
• "Congressman Gill is laser-focused on getting out the vote and ensuring Republicans hold the majority this November," a spokesperson for Gill told us in a statement.

Zoom in: Members say Gill benefited from introductions to HFC donors but hasn't adequately financially supported fellow members in difficult races.

• "For those of us who have been in meetings, who have been in the tough votes over the last two years, he's been MIA," one HFC member said, adding he's "totally looking for the ladder climbing."
• Gill raised $4.7 million in the third quarter, a massive haul for a freshman member. He's in an R+11 district.
• Gill's office pointed out he's given to over a dozen HFC members' campaigns.

What they're saying: Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) accused the media of "ginning up stories about Republicans based on anonymous sources," insisting the group is "united and laser-focused" on advancing Trump's agenda.

• "I'm not frustrated with Brandon at all," Rep. Mark Harris (R-N.C.), also a freshman member of the caucus and no relation to Andy Harris, told us. "He comes to meetings. I don't know why they feel like he doesn't."

The bottom line: "HFC is its own worst enemy sometimes," one GOP member told us. "They've managed to kick out, alienate some of their members that help them fundraise."

— Kate Santaliz

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⚠️ Big impeachment shift

Some of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' most vocal left-wing lawmakers are starting to sound like his leadership team when it comes to impeaching President Trump.

Why it matters: If that lukewarm sentiment holds, Jeffries will have a much easier time keeping his caucus from breaking ranks if he pursues a more deliberative approach to impeachment — or no impeachment at all.

• Even Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), whose infamous "impeach the motherf***er" quote in 2019 was used by Republicans to undermine Trump's impeachments, is getting in line.
• She told us in a statement yesterday: "No matter what happens in November, we'll still have a Trump administration for the next two years to hold accountable."

Driving the news: Likely incoming Democratic House members Darializa Avila Chevalier of New York and Melat Kiros of Colorado struck a similar tone in a recent podcast interview when asked about impeaching Trump.

• "I support accountability, but ... that is something that Trump himself seems to want," said Avila Chevalier.
• "My question is: Is that actually going to be meaningful accountability for the Trump administration?"
• Said Kiros: "The accountability has to actually lead to some material changes."

What we're hearing: "Impeachment can't just be a political messaging strategy," Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.), who has advocated a day-one impeachment, told us in an interview.

• "I think the American people are tired of theater," said Adam Hamawy, another likely Democratic House member from New Jersey. He told us any impeachment proceedings need to be "a real process with substance, rather than just getting up there and just making a show of it."

The big picture: Democrats have had a tortured relationship with impeachment since Trump returned to office last year.

• After impeaching Trump twice in his first term only to see him acquitted both times by the Senate and then reelected in 2024, even the most ardently anti-Trump Democrats came into last year recoiling at the mere mention of another impeachment.
• But they quickly found themselves buffeted by a grassroots base furious about the second Trump administration's precedent-shattering moves and demanding Democrats use every tool at their disposal to fight back.

The intrigue: Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) — who tried to force impeachment votes three times last year — and Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.), who championed impeaching Trump in his second term, have both lost reelection bids this year.

• The party base has turned away from anti-Trump #resistance crusaders in favor of more broadly anti-establishment, left-wing ideologues, as we previously reported.

What's next: The House could soon vote on an impeachment resolution against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, triggered by Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) just before lawmakers left for October recess.

• "I do think that holding Pete Hegseth [accountable] and looking into the ways in which our governing bodies have failed to meet the standards, the laws ... is all part of holding this government accountable," said Rep. Analilia Mejia (D-N.J.).

— Andrew Solender

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⁉️ Senate guessing game

Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios

Senate leaders could be guessing who will control the chamber well into November, thanks to a slew of tight races and state-specific voting rules. Why it matters: A GOP majority would ease the pressure on Senate Majority Leader John Thune to move quickly on nominations, while a Democratic majority would give Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer more leverage in the lame-duck session. If the chamber splits 50/50, leaders will have to start negotiating their power-sharing agreement. Zoom in: Four states could leave the majority in limbo. Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) is trying to fend off former Rep. Mary Peltola (D). Alaska election results have taken weeks to finalize because of the vast state's transportation challenges, mail ballots and ranked-choice tabulation. The Trump Justice Department is preemptively trying to block results from being finalized if Sullivan narrowly loses. Maine's ranked-choice voting could lengthen the vote tallying if neither Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) nor Democratic nominee Troy Jackson gets more than 50% in the first round. Kansas' three-day grace period for mail-in ballots could delay results in the race between Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton and Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.). It is far closer than expected. In Texas, a dragged-out recount could be coming. A candidate can request one if the margin is less than 10% of the winner's vote total — which is likely to happen between state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) and state Rep. James Talarico (D). The candidate who requests it has to pay. The clock: Congress currently plans to leave for the holidays on Dec. 18. But if Republicans lose both the House and Senate, Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) wants senators to stay in town through the holidays (yes, Thanksgiving and Christmas) to work on a massive GOP reconciliation package they can pass without Democratic support. The big picture: Congress has a long to-do list either way, including funding the government past Dec. 11, passing emergency defense spending and potentially raising the debt ceiling. It needs to pass the National Defense Authorization Act, Farm Bill and permitting reform, reauthorize the warrantless wiretap authority under FISA Section 702 and confirm nominations before they expire at the end of the year. The bottom line: "I'm guessing that's a possibility this year," Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) told reporters today about working in D.C. through the holiday recess. — Stef Kight

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What Democrats have pledged to do if they win

If Democrats win control of either chamber of Congress this November, they will reclaim a measure of power in Washington and gain new leverage over President Donald Trump’s agenda.

Their most immediate tool would be congressional oversight, allowing them to hold hearings, subpoena witnesses and investigate everything from the president’s immigration policies and the Iran war to his business dealings. Democrats could also wield greater influence over federal spending, potentially challenging Trump’s tariffs, proposed projects in Washington and cuts to government agencies.

But even a sweeping victory would leave the party facing significant limits. Trump could veto their legislation as long as he remains in office, and passing major reforms would likely require Republican support.

+ For subscribers: What exactly Democrats have pledged to do if they win in the midterms

+ Live updates: More than 30 million votes already cast

+ Streaming now: If Texas turns blue, everything changes

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💪 "Bloc" plots first moves

Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios Anything short of a landslide victory for House Democrats next Tuesday will open the door for a faction of left-wing insurgents known informally as "The Bloc" to complicate Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' plans. Why it matters: Jeffries would push to restore Affordable Care Act tax credits, vote against the Iran war and tariffs, and reverse cuts to Medicaid if Democrats take the majority. But that's not nearly enough for the left. Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) told us: "We have to have a vision that is much more than just 'restore the subsidies.'" Zoom in: The Bloc is coordinating with progressive incumbents on Capitol Hill to use the House speaker election, subsequent procedural votes and any other leverage points they can find to shift the Democratic Party to the left. Group members have been strategizing about demands they could make if Jeffries needs their votes to secure the speaker's gavel, sources familiar with the discussions told us. Possible concessions that have been privately floated include prime committee assignments, resources for their districts, changes to House rules to "democratize" the chamber and votes on progressive legislation, sources said. These sources spoke on condition of anonymity because the group's discussions are in the preliminary stage and no plans have been finalized. State of play: The Bloc is an informal grouping of candidates who won House primaries this year with support from left-wing groups such as the Justice Democrats and the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), often by unseating incumbents. They include Melat Kiros of Colorado; Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez of New York; Adam Hamawy of New Jersey; Chris Rabb of Pennsylvania; and Donavan McKinney of Michigan. All are running in safely Democratic seats. Other progressives facing competitive general elections — including William Lawrence of Michigan and Mai Vang, Angela Gonzales-Torres and Randy Villegas of California — could also end up aligning with the group. So could a broader group of Bloc-adjacent progressives such as Brad Lander of New York, who is not a DSA member but won his primary by unseating more establishment-aligned Rep. Dan Goldman. The bottom line: Most of these candidates have declined to commit to voting for Jeffries as speaker, with some making it clear they won't give away their votes for nothing. "We're focused on pushing for a bold House agenda with priorities that reflect what the voters want to see us fighting for," one person involved with the Bloc told us. — Andrew Solender

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Left's dream agenda

Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios

House progressives are planning to use their growing power to force votes next year on their most sweeping and divisive policies, including Medicare for All, abolishing ICE and cutting aid to Israel, Axios' Andrew Solender writes. Why it matters: The ultimate goal is to get these policies on the front burner for a Democratic president in 2029, even if that means forcing House Democrats into tough decisions. 🔎 Zoom in: Here is what progressives most want to see go to a House vote in 2027, according to lawmakers, candidates and operatives who spoke to Axios: 1. Medicare for All. The Medicare for All Act introduced by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) has 118 co-sponsors — more than half the House Democratic caucus. The left wants to force the issue onto the floor and make their Democratic colleagues reckon with the policy's popularity in public opinion polls. The aim is to make support for Medicare for All a must for any 2028 presidential candidate to win the primary. 2. Abolish or defund ICE. Several progressives pointed to Rep. Delia Ramirez's (D-Ill.) "Melt ICE Act," which would cut all funding for ICE detention and monitoring of immigrants. Another bill would go even further, fully abolishing ICE and dismantling ICE's parent agency, the Department of Homeland Security. Moderate Democrats have long opposed defunding ICE. Party leadership has proposed reforms to the agency's practices rather than cutting funds. 3. Cut aid to Israel. The Block the Bombs Act, which would restrict presidents' ability to transfer offensive weaponry to Israel, is the left's marquee legislation on this issue. The left is putting external pressure on the party's pro-Israel wing, which suffered serious losses in House primaries this year. 4. AI. Progressives have been some of the earliest adopters of anti-AI rhetoric, proposing strict regulations on the technology, a moratorium on data centers and a ban on Flock cameras. 5. Affordability. Progressives are eyeing a living wage, universal child care, lifting the payroll tax cap to shore up Social Security, and repealing a cap on federally subsidized public housing.

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House Republicans launch Alaska probe

Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) is investigating allegations that Democratic operatives recruited an Alaska Senate candidate with the same name as incumbent Dan Sullivan (R) in a bid to siphon votes from him, Axios' Kate Santaliz reports. The probe draws Congress into a controversy surrounding Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola's campaign in one of the country's most competitive midterm races. 🔎 Comer is seeking transcribed interviews with Peltola's former campaign manager, Elisa Rios, as well as Democratic operative Jerid Kurtz. He threatened to use subpoenas to compel testimony from the two Democratic operatives, who were allegedly involved in the recruitment effort. Neither Rios nor Kurtz responded to Axios' requests for comment. Driving the news: The New York Times reported yesterday that top Peltola campaign staffers directed efforts to track down another Dan Sullivan to enter the race as part of a bid to recruit potential spoilers. The other Dan Sullivan, a retired teacher who will also appear on the ballot, registered as a Republican shortly before the filing deadline. Both the Peltola campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee denied involvement in recruiting the other Sullivan, according to the Times. Neither responded to Axios' request for comment. Rios, who was fired amid an August staff upheaval, told the Times that "voters should get the full picture when making their decisions." The newspaper said she later tried to retract her comments for the story. Go deeper.

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🎯 House Oversight targets same-name scheme

House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) is investigating allegations that Democratic operatives recruited an Alaska Senate candidate with the same name as incumbent Dan Sullivan (R) in a bid to siphon votes from him.

• Comer is seeking transcribed interviews with Elisa Rios, former campaign manager for Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola, and Democratic operative Jerid Kurtz, requesting that they appear on Nov. 5 and 6, respectively.
• He threatened to use subpoenas to compel testimony from the two Democratic operatives, who are allegedly involved in the recruitment effort. Neither Rios nor Kurtz responded to requests for comment.
• Both the Peltola campaign and the DSCC denied involvement in recruiting the other Sullivan, according to the New York Times. Neither responded to a request for comment from us.

The bottom line: The same-name controversy is now the center of a Justice Department probe and a state-level investigation in Alaska.

— Kate Santaliz