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Senate passes six-month funding bill, sending measure to Trump’s desk

The Senate passed a six-month spending bill on Friday, hours before a government shutdown, overcoming sharp Democratic opposition to the measure and sending it to President Donald Trump to be signed into law.

https://apnews.com/live/donald-trump-news-updates-3-14-2025?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

Congress averts government shutdown after Senate passes stopgap funding bill

Congress averted a government shutdown Friday just hours before the funding deadline, after the Senate approved a House-passed spending bill that exposed deep rifts within the Democratic Party.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/14/politics/government-funding-bill-senate-shutdown?

? Schumer stiffs Resistance

The Resistance just swung and missed against Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

Why it matters: House Democrats, party activists, the online left and even some Senate Democrats spent the last two days arguing their best option was to shut down the government.

  • But Schumer ignored them and got eight other Senate Democrats and independent Angus King, who caucuses with them, to join him. The government will stay open, depriving President Trump of his chance to spend months talking up the "Schumer Shutdown."
  • ? "I'll take some of the bullets," Schumer told the New York Times today.

Zoom in: Democrats made a bad bet that House Speaker Mike Johnson would be unable to pass a GOP-only bill. When that bet missed, Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries were split apart.

  • For weeks, Schumer chose not to go public with his concerns that a shutdown was a bad idea. His Senate Dems wanted strong leadership, but he kept his warnings private.

House Dems either didn't hear Schumer's private pleas or flat-out ignored them.

  • ? They voted in near-unison for a shutdown, praying the GOP would splinter like it had so many times before.
  • But Johnson held the line, keeping every Republican but Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky and getting a Democratic vote from Rep. Jared Golden of Maine.

That forced Dems to pivot fast: Jeffries and House Dems embraced the risk of shutdown and offered to come back to D.C. to vote on a 30-day stopgap. They said it was preferable compared to giving Trump longer-term funding.

  • Schumer focused on squeezing leverage for amendment votes, which he ended up getting, plus a vote to fix the funding cut to D.C.'s budget that was in the House bill.

? Asked at a press conference today if it's time for new leadership in the Senate, Jeffries quickly responded, "Next question."

  • Asked if he has lost confidence in Schumer, Jeffries again replied: "Next question."
  • Pressed further, Jeffries said he looks "forward to reporting back to all of you when I've had conversations" in his district over the weekend.

Go deeper: Inside House Dems' furious anti-Schumer movement

Justin Green

Who said itHouse GOP vs. House Dems

The spicy quotes from House Democrats since last night sound a bit like what we've gotten used to from House Republicans over the last 10 years.

Why it matters: Former Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell was a frequent target of attacks from his own party, just like Schumer's been feeling this week.

See if you can spot the party ID of the person behind each of the quotes below. (Answers at the bottom of the newsletter).

  1. "[McConnell/Schumer] is supposed to be the leader of the opposition, not a rank-and-file member of the [other party]."
  2. "I'm looking at [McConnell/Schumer] when I say this: DO YOUR JOB, Leader. ... Do your job and follow the wishes of the American people."
  3. McConnell/Schumer "should only agree to a short-term CR … to allow … the House to make the appropriations bills next year."
  4. "Defeat the budget bill in US Senate and shut this government down!!!"
  5. "A lot of people are frustrated with his comments. I'm not going to sugarcoat it."
  6. "I get the emotional satisfaction of slamming the Senate. But it's actually not very helpful to that body for us to do it, and I don't think we should."
  7. "This false choice that some are buying instead of fighting is unacceptable."
  8. "I think it is a huge slap in the face, and I think that there's a wide sense of betrayal."

— Hans Nichols

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

Senate Dems Look to Give Trump Everything He Wants After a “Fake Fight” on Spending Bill

In the first real showdown since the election, Senate Democrats seem poised to give President Donald Trump and Elon Musk everything they want while pretending to oppose the Republican spending bill. The proposed maneuver would allow Democrats to feign opposition to the new administration’s power grab, while also giving the GOP enough votes to push their agenda through.

https://theintercept.com/2025/03/13/senate-democrats-vote-government-shutdown/?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Silencing Schumer

Recess week's off to a depressing start for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who might have some strange sympathy for the House Republicans who jammed him last week on the government shutdown.

  • Why it matters: Both sides are avoiding angry resistance crowds during a week when they'd prefer to engage with the public.

House Republicans don't seem overly eager to defend every specific cut identified by Elon Musk and his DOGE deputies.

  • They've been warned against in-person town halls and seem to be sticking to it.

? Schumer doesn't appear keen to justify his vote to keep the government open, which infuriated a huge swath of the Democratic Party.

  • He's postponed his book tour for "Antisemitism in America: A Warning," which comes out tomorrow, citing security concerns.
  • That means no Schumer this week (for now) in Baltimore, Philadelphia, D.C. and New York — plus legs in Georgia and California. It saves him viral disruptions from protesters but takes away an important platform on the dangers of antisemitism in the U.S.

Zoom in: Schumer's received very unfriendly comparisons in the past few days.

  • Perhaps the harshest: His public push to keep the government open was an "Eric Cantor-like mistake," an unnamed congressional Dem told The Bulwark, citing the former GOP House majority leader who lost a primary in 2014.
  • What he's missing: The liberal group Indivisible is pushing the meme this week that Dems have an "urgent need for a Minority Leader who's up for the fight this moment demands."

The bottom line: Schumer's not up for reelection again until 2028. Taking out a party leader via internal elections is an uphill fight (just ask Republican Sen. Rick Scott of Florida.)

  • But the party has a serious fight on its hands over how to take the fight to President Trump.

 

Thune's Q1 report card

Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) kicked off his new year of leadership by keeping the Senate working for 10 weeks in a row, with votes on four Fridays.

  • That's a modern freakin' rarity.

Why it matters: The Senate is finally on recess after the longest stretch of weeks in session in more than 15 years. Senators, staff and reporters were ready for the break.

By the numbers: Senate Republicans and their 53-seat majority handed Trump:

  • 32 confirmed nominees, including 21 Cabinet members.
  • Eight bills passed with Democratic support —including major immigration and fentanyl bills. The Laken Riley Act has been signed into law.
  • Four rollbacks of Biden administration executive actions using the Congressional Review Act.

The other side: Senate Dems filibustered bills addressing trans women in sports, ICC sanctions and health care after failed abortions.

  • The Senate's budget resolution has been set aside for the House version, which includes Trump's tax priorities in addition to border, defense and energy policies.

— Stef Kight

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Dems PIP Schumer

Grassroots groups have outlined a type of performance improvement plan for embattled Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, we have learned.

Why it matters: The groups can make Schumer's life very difficult, by organizing protests against him and his members or dangling potential primary challengers. And they want to see changes in how he leads his caucus.

  • "I should be the leader. ... I am sort of the orchestra leader, and I have a lot of talent in that orchestra," Schumer said today on ABC's "The View."
  • Schumer and his advisers have heard from groups across the Democratic Party spectrum, from the leftist Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC) to Moveon.org and the more establishment Indivisible.

Their top three demands:

  1. More seats at the table: The groups want to influence the discussion earlier in the process and a more proactive plan to battle Republicans.
  2. Elevate younger voices in the party, especially Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y). Schumer brought Murphy and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), known for their media savvy, into his leadership team this year.
  3. Go on offense. They want more fight from Schumer — and are pushing him to encourage his members to host town halls in their states' redder areas if the GOP representatives don't. "It is a source of real pain for the Republican Party when veterans and Trump voters in Republican districts have a voice," PCCC co-founder Adam Green told us.

Zoom in: Second-guessing by the party's liberal grassroots groups can quickly aggravate elected leaders, who were "pissed" at the groups last month.

  • Schumer has taken a public pounding from his party's base, not to mention House Democrats (more in item No. 2), since voting to keep the government open last week.
  • "I myself don't give away anything for nothing. I think that's what happened the other day," House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi said today at a town hall. (Pelosi also said she's confident in Schumer's leadership.)

The bottom line: Schumer has gone on a media tour to defend his actions, arguing that shutting down the government would have been irresponsible.

  • The Democratic groups argue Schumer was caught flatfooted in dealing with the GOP's government funding bill over the last month.

— Stephen Neukam and Hans Nichols

Private slam sessions

Rank-and-file anger toward Schumer is spilling over into internal discussions this week, more than half a dozen House Dems tell us.

Why it matters: House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries threw his support behind Schumer this morning. But many of his members are still privately fuming.

  • "From the threads I am on, [people are] pissed off ... and not just the typical lefties," one House Dem told us on the condition of anonymity to share details of private conversations.
  • People are "mainly venting" but also "talking a big game about supporting AOC" in a possible primary challenge, the Dem told us.
  • Schumer's popularity is "hovering somewhere between Elon Musk and the Ebola virus," a senior House Dem told us of the internal mood.
  • "Big mad" is how another Dem described the mood of their colleagues.

Zoom in: Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) argued frustration toward Schumer is "a bit of an inside-the-beltway conversation" and that constituents "actually told me they understood Schumer's argument."

  • House Democrats are "for sure" miffed at the Senate leader, Pocan told us, but voters are "pissed at Trump and Musk ... not really Schumer."
  • The House vs. Senate Dems conflict also "doesn't ruin our going into Republican districts to hold town halls," the first House Dem told us.

Andrew Solender

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Dems target GOP "cowards" on town halls
 
This is a town hall
 

A man shares his views during a congressional town hall meeting with Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) on March 13. Photo: Sean Rayford/Getty Images

 

Democrats are slamming nine vulnerable House Republicans for avoiding town halls — launching a billboard campaign and scheduling their own Q&As in competitive districts, Axios has learned.

  • The new DNC billboards will say lawmakers "won't talk to his/her constituents" and include the member's office phone number — urging people to call and demand a town hall.
  • "If Republicans won't show up, then Democrats will," DNC Chair Ken Martin said in a statement provided to us.

The other side: Schumer's postponed book tour is undermining the argument, and the Democratic infighting is giving Republicans fresh fodder this week.

  • Senate Republican Conference Chair Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) has urged Republicans to emphasize Democratic dysfunction while home in their districts.
  • "Chuck Schumer had to cancel his book tour because he is being protested by the radical left over a clean CR," a top Cotton staffer wrote in guidance to congressional aides this week, according to an email we obtained.

— Stef Kight

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Stefanik's nomination date

It's been more than four months since President Trump announced Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) as his UN ambassador — and she finally has a date for when she will be free from the House.

  • Stefanik's nomination is set to move on April 2, two sources familiar told us.

Why it matters: House Speaker Mike Johnson's slim margins, GOP defectors and Trump's House GOP shopping spree have forced Stefanik to stay behind.

  • That will allow time for the winner of the Florida special elections on April 1 to fill the seats vacated by former GOP Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz, the new White House national security adviser.
  • Stefanik's confirmation vote will happen immediately after the new members are seated, a Trump official involved in the process told us. It's not expected to be a controversial vote.

The bottom line: More trouble for the majority could be brewing, with Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul expected to do her own slow-walking on the special election to replace Stefanik, Semafor's Kadia Goba reported.

  • Every empty GOP seat makes Johnson's job that much harder.

— Stef Kight

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

? Trouble for Oz

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) is blasting Mehmet Oz, calling into question his nomination to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

  • Why it matters: Hawley's questions could raise major issues among Republicans. Oz can only afford to lose three Republican senators to win confirmation without any Democratic support.

Zoom in: "I hope he's changed his views to match President Trump! We need the Trump agenda at CMS," Hawley posted on X today, sharing a list of questions he has for the nominee.

  • Hawley said he had been "reading up" on Oz and found that the nominee has "praised trans surgeries for minors and supported hormone treatments & puberty blockers for kids in the past."
  • Hawley's first question addresses episodes of Oz's television show featuring kids who had transitioned and a doctor who endorsed gender-affirming medical care.
  • Hawley also wants Oz to answer for past criticism of anti-abortion rights policies and pushes him to commit to ensuring federal funds are not used for abortion, among other anti-abortion policies.

Zoom out: This comes shortly after a similar campaign by Hawley against Hilary Perkins led to her abrupt exit as chief counsel at the FDA.

  • Oz had his confirmation hearing in front of the Finance Committee on Friday, in which he largely dodged Democratic attempts to pin him down on Medicaid cuts.

— Stef Kight

? Charted: Johnson's top targets
 
Table showing 26 Democrat-held House districts that the NRCC will target in the 2026 midterm election.
Data: NRCC, New York Times; Table: Axios Visuals

Just a handful of House Republicans have been able to hold Speaker Johnson hostage for the past few years. He wants that to finally change.

The big picture: House Republicans are looking well beyond the roughly dozen Trump-district Democrats as they try to grow their two-seat majority.

  • Johnson's campaign arm, the NRCC, released an initial list of 26 districts that it is targeting in the 2026 midterms.

Zoom in: House Majority PAC, which is closely tied to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), released its initial target list last year.

  • It includes 29 districts, some of which Republicans won by as many as 14 percentage points.
  • The Democratic PAC also released another 16 "districts to watch" that Republicans won by 12 to 30 percentage points.

— Andrew Solender

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Trump's mind control
 
Illustration of a c-clamp vise with the words
 

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

To fully appreciate President Trump's mesmerizing control over Republicans, consider their scant public dissent over ideas many of them privately disdain:

  • Support for Vladimir Putin.
  • Support for on-again, off-again tariffs, and a worsening economy.
  • Support Elon Musk's haphazard budget-cutting.
  • Making Canada the 51st state.
  • Pardoning most Jan. 6 defendants.

Why it matters: It's the worst-kept secret in town. Most elected Republicans are staying silent on issues they find dubious, dumb or destructive, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.

In private, they're more forthcoming about their concerns and their mixed motivations for zipping their lips — genuine support for Trump and genuine fear of crossing him.

  • Almost universally, Republicans have convinced themselves that by winning a second time, Trump earned whatever Cabinet he wants, and the freedom to pursue the policies of his choice.

They see no upside — or good reason — to oppose him because Trump, Musk and others would torch them publicly and on social media, and almost certainly threaten a primary challenge.

  • Just ask Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), who faced constant harassment back home for merely raising questions about Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth. She wound up voting to confirm him.
  • Or Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who voted to confirm Hegseth after getting the Ernst treatment and threatened with a primary challenge. Tillis has gotten repeated death threats since the election.
  • Or the exception, Rep. Tom Massie (R-Ky.): Trump has threatened him with a primary challenge for being "an automatic 'NO' vote on just about everything." But Massie continues to vote against Trump priorities, and recently wrote on X: "POTUS is spending his day attacking me and Canada. The difference is Canada will eventually cave."

? Most GOP lawmakers dutifully defend things they might ridicule if they were done by a Democrat or weaker Republican.

  • This ritual plays out all day, every day on X and cable news. Republicans pick up tricks from each other to duck and weave, or simply defend things they might find intellectually indefensible.
  • "It's part of the gig, right?" said Rep. Blake Moore of Utah, vice chair of the House Republican Conference. "I haven't been asked about a Trump tweet in a while."

?️ Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) — an outlier in the GOP who's an actual fan of tariffs — called the Republican chorus "an acquiescence to reality."

  • Hawley says that although there are plenty of Republicans who don't like tariffs or Trump's approach to Ukraine, "I haven't heard what the alternatives would be."
  • "He's the undisputed leader of the party," Hawley added. "I think people are, like: 'OK, let's give him a shot' — even those who probably, privately, would do it differently."

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) — who endorsed Trump back in early 2016, when Cramer was a House member — told Axios' Stef Kight that when Trump won the popular vote, Americans "signed off on his broader plan — and the things he's been doing are things he said he was going to do."

  • "At this point, this early, we're best to let him do it and see how it turns out," Cramer said. "I think he needs a little room and some time ... to change big things in a short time. ... We've learned not to so quickly second-guess him. His instincts are often right — usually right."

One popular trick: Quietly articulate your differing views back home, without even the mildest hint of criticizing Trump.

  • Another tactic is to deflect and express outrage, as several Republicans have done when questioned about the administration ignoring a judge's order while deporting two planeloads of alleged Venezuelan gang members: "So you want murderers and rapists to stay in the U.S.?"

The bottom line: Politics is all about incentives. And every Republican incentive is to back Trump — and make sure he and MAGA media know it.

  • Stef Kight and Andrew Solender contributed reporting.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

? Jeffries' monster haul

The DCCC raised more money than its House rival and both Senate arms in February, translating grassroots anger into hard dollars to spend in 2026.

Why it matters: February fundraising numbers aren't predictive of who will win elections, but they do provide an early look at who is motivating their base.

  • The DCCC raised $11.1 million, compared to the NRCC's $9.2 million.
  • In the Senate, the NRSC raised $7.8 million and the DSCC raked in $6.8 million, according to FEC reports filed today.

Between the lines: The NRCC closed the gap with the DCCC from January, when it raised just under $6 million and its rivals pulled in $9.2 million.

  • The NRCC surged past its February 2023 numbers, when it raised $6.6 million.

What they're saying: "The American people are angry and fed up with House Republicans' crusade to enact the largest cut to Medicaid in history and pledging fealty to Elon Musk's ongoing effort to dismantle Social Security and gut the VA," DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) said.

  • "No wonder they are hiding from their constituents."

— Hans Nichols

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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‘Grave concerns’: Don’t threaten Social Security phone lines, Florida congressman urges

U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz wants to “safeguard” Social Security phone assistance from any threats from President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk’s DOGE efforts.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2025/03/21/grave-concerns-dont-threaten-social-security-phone-lines-moskowitz-urges/?

? Scoop: DOGE whistleblower portal

Schumer's Democrats are launching a new whistleblower portal today for public and private workers to dish on President Trump and DOGE, as we first scooped.

Why it matters: Democrats hope whistleblowers will expose what they argue are the White House's illegal moves to unilaterally dismantle federal agencies and programs.

  • Democrats want to hear from workers who are witnessing how Trump and Elon Musk have withheld funding and fired federal workers without the approval of Congress.
  • The portal is spearheaded by Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), whose staff on the Senate Budget Committee will conduct oversight of the new tool.

The big picture: Democrats — who hold minorities in both the House and Senate — have little recourse against Trump's efforts to downsize the federal government,

  • But they have launched an anti-DOGE messaging offensive, betting that overreach by Trump will be unpopular with voters. Polling has shown voters — especially younger ones — are concerned by DOGE's actions.
  • Earlier this year, Schumer launched a portal for whistleblowers to report abuse of power under Trump.

— Stephen Neukam

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Dems' identity crisis
 
Illustration of a donkey looking into a mirror.
 

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

 

Talk to 20 Democrats and you'll find each one has a different theory of why they lost the 2024 election and sent the party into a spiral, Axios' Alex Thompson writes.

  • Why it matters: It's hard to win if you don't know why you lost.

The party was cohesive in 2017 under a resistance banner. Now the finger-pointing goes in all directions. Ten theories:

  1. It's all Joe Biden's fault. For president, the party ran a deteriorating 81-year-old incumbent who had to drop out roughly 100 days before the election. With such unprecedented headwinds, the party actually did OK after Biden left the race: Kamala Harris boosted party members' enthusiasm and avoided a wipeout. She lost the Electoral College by just 230,000 votes. Dems won Senate seats in four states that Trump won (Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona).
  2. It's all Kamala Harris' fault. She was a bad candidate in 2019 and many Democrats didn't see her as their strongest possible choice in 2024. Some believe the party should have had a mini-primary before its August convention — or taken its chances with Biden.
  3. Podcasts and social media. Harris and other Democrats should have gone on Joe Rogan's show, fully embraced TikTok, and met voters where they were.
  4. Too "woke." Democrats struggled to defend their support for marginalized communities — transgender people, those who benefit from diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs, and others.
  5. Elitist words. The party has become the party of the college-educated and for the college-educated — and its members talk like it in ways the working class often finds condescending or alienating.
  6. Elitist policies. It's not just the way the party talks — it's the way it governs. The working class has felt left behind by the Democratic Party as it's embraced free trade and other center-left technocratic policies. Those voters have been drifting to the GOP for years. Now that's reached a crisis point.
  7. Testosterone. Many men, especially young men, feel Democrats don't have an agenda for them and don't seem to care about their problems. So they've turned right.
  8. Inflation, inflation, inflation. Incumbents throughout the Western world have lost as voters vent about inflation. Any incumbent party would have had trouble holding onto the White House.
  9. The border. Democrats mishandled the border under Biden and abandoned the tough-on-immigration policies the party had under Presidents Clinton and Obama, playing right into Trump's signature issue.
  10. Trump is one-of-a-kind. To explain Trump's victory in 2016, Democrats blamed Russia, social media, fake news, Bernie Sanders, James Comey, Anthony Weiner and media coverage of Hillary Clinton's email server. Democrats didn't grapple with the most obvious explanation: Many voters liked Trump and related to what he said.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Dems' dark, deep hole
 
Illustration of a yard sign that reads
 

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

Top Democrats say their party is in its deepest hole in nearly 50 years — and they fear things could actually get worse, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column:

  • The party has its lowest favorability ever.
  • No popular national leader to help improve it.
  • Insufficient numbers to stop most legislation in Congress.
  • A durable minority on the Supreme Court.
  • Dwindling influence over the media ecosystem, with right-leaning podcasters and social media accounts ascendant.
  • Young voters are growing dramatically more conservative.
  • A bad 2026 map for Senate races.
  • Democratic Senate retirements could make it harder for the party to flip the House, with members tempted by statewide races.
  • There are only three House Republicans in districts former Vice President Harris won in 2024, a dim sign for a Democratic surge. There were 23 eight years ago in seats Hillary Clinton won.
  • And, thanks to the number of people fleeing blue states, the math for a Dem to win the presidency will just get harder in 2030.

Why it matters: Both parties — after losing the White House, Senate and House — suffer and search for salvation. But rarely does healing seem so hard and redemption so distant.

  • Doug Sosnik — a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton, and widely followed thinker on political megatrends — told us this is Dems' deepest hole in at least the 45 years since Ronald Reagan's victory in 1980. Sosnik said the 2024 election was at least as much a repudiation of Democrats as it was a victory for Trump.

?️ As Ezra Klein noted this month in his New York Times column, if current population patterns hold, Democrats will suffer a devastating blow after the 2030 census: The party will lose as many as a dozen House seats and electoral votes.

  • ? Klein points out that in that Electoral College, Dems could win all the states Harris carried in 2024 — plus Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and still lose the White House.

? The big picture: Democrats' dismal reality is not Republican spin. In fact, there's broad consensus among Democratic leaders that most current political, cultural, media and generational trends are cutting against them.

  • "Democrats are losing working-class voters," Klein, co-author with Derek Thompson of the new liberal blueprint "Abundance," said last week. "They're seeing their margins among nonwhite voters erode and vanish. They're losing young voters. Something is wrong in the Democratic Party."

? By the numbers: A deep, comprehensive poll by Democratic pollster David Shor of Blue Rose Research captured vividly and empirically the daunting data.

  • For those skeptical of polls and sampling size, Shor's study is based on 26 million online responses collected over the course of 2024, and filtered to adjust to oddities of modern polling.
  • Shor said on Klein's podcast, "The Ezra Klein Show," that his most striking finding — and the one most worrisome to him — is the surging pro-Trump/MAGA/Republican views and voting patterns of young men, immigrants and anyone other than strident liberals.

Shor estimates a 23-point swing against Democrats among immigrants. The swing is very pronounced among Hispanics who consider themselves conservatives: Democratic support dropped by 50%.

  • But it's the rise of conservatism among young people, mainly men, that spooks him most. "[Y]oung voters — regardless of race and gender — have become more Republican," Shor writes in his 33-slide presentation. (Request the deck.)
  • Ali Mortell, director of research at Blue Rose Research, told Axios' Tal Axelrod: "Millennials were one of the most progressive generations, and it's looking like Gen Z is about to be one of the most conservative."

The thing he's been most shocked by over the last four years, Shor told Klein: "[Y]oung people have gone from being the most progressive generation since the Baby Boomers, and maybe even in some ways more so, to becoming potentially the most conservative generation that we've experienced maybe in 50 to 60 years."

  • A gender gap has exploded: 18-year-old men were 23 points more likely to support Donald Trump than 18-year-old women, which Shor called "just completely unprecedented in American politics."

? What's next: Rahm Emanuel — the former House Democrat, Chicago mayor, ambassador to Japan, White House chief of staff and possible 2028 presidential candidate — told us his party needs an emergency meeting of mayors and governors to rethink the party's perception and priorities, and see what's working in schools.

  • "The public has seen us as more focused around a set of cultural interests and issues — climate, 'woke,' DEI, abortion — than the American people," Emanuel said. "All those I care about. But they consumed both our intellectual and thematic energy. The American people said: You care more about that than everything else."

Emanuel told us Democrats have to stop being a liberal-only party for liberal-only voters: "We used to have liberal, moderate and conservative Democrats. Now we're basically a liberal party, because African American and Hispanic voters went out the back door. They're the ones who walked as we became more liberal."

  • Axios' Tal Axelrod contributed reporting ...

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted
? Axe's all-of-the-above theory
 
Illustration of a donkey looking exhausted with a bunch of different hands pointing at it.
 

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

 

David Axelrod — CNN senior political commentator and former senior adviser to President Obama — texted me after reading this weekend's great story by Axios' Alex Thompson, "The 10 theories driving Dems' identity crisis":

"Isn't it possible that all 10 of your Why Dems Lost list are true? In different proportions, of course."

I told him that makes it quite a complex puzzle:

  • "It does. But the question of how the party is working people became identified as a party of elites and institutions when so many Americans are alienated from both, seems fundamental to me.
  • "It's easy to sit back and wait for Trump to implode. But this question is a harder one. And for the long term, pretty damned important."

Read Alex's story.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted
? Dems' Tea Party moment
 
Illustration of a man tearing open a suit like superman to reveal a raised progressive fist symbol beneath
 

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

Democrats on Capitol Hill are increasingly nervous about primaries from younger, angrier and more liberal challengers.

  • "The people that have been voting ... with Republicans on these messaging bills are people that could get primaried," a senior House Democrat told Axios' Andrew Solender.
  • That Democrat said a colleague called them after a recent town hall meeting crying and saying, "They hate us. They hate us."

?️ Kat Abughazaleh, a popular 26-year-old progressive influencer, announced today that she's running for the seat Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill) has held for 26 years.

  • "What if we didn't suck?" Abughazaleh said in her announcement video, which quickly went viral.
  • Schakowsky hasn't said yet whether she plans to run again.

? "The level of exasperation is comparable for sure" to the Tea Party revolt that took over the GOP, "even if the issues and policies are very different," said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.).

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

? 2 spicy hearings

The Trump administration's Signal fiasco has given Democrats an unexpected shot to go on offense, with a pair of hearings in the next two days.

  • "Well, somebody f**ked up," Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.), a former Navy SEAL, told reporters today.

Why it matters: Grilling Trump officials on whether their secret Signal chats violated the Espionage Act won't end the Democrats' bitter infighting, but it's a heckuva distraction.

  • Senate Intel gets first crack at DNI Tulsi Gabbard and CIA Director John Ratcliffe. The two were among the 18 people on the Signal group chat revealed today by The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg.
  • House Intel goes on Wednesday with the same crew. Top Democrat Jim Himes (D-Conn.) is already vowing to grill them on the story.
  • Look for Dems to focus heavily on The Atlantic article at both hearings, per sources involved with the plans.

Zoom in: "This is one of the most stunning breaches of military intelligence I have read about in a very, very long time," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said today.

  • House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth "the most unqualified person to ever lead the Pentagon in American history."
  • Hegseth was in the Signal group chat revealed today, along with Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the chat's organizer, national security adviser Mike Waltz.
  • In it, Hegseth shared potentially classified details of a strike plan in Yemen, including targets and timing, two hours ahead of time.

Hegseth called Goldberg "highly discredited," among other insults. "Nobody was texting war plans and that's all I have to say," Hegseth told reporters.

Between the lines: We're just a month removed from Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) accusing Hegseth of a "rookie mistake" for comments on Ukraine.

  • Wicker will demand briefings for his committee after today's news, he told CNN.

The bottom line: House Speaker Mike Johnson defended the officials, calling it a "mistake" that won't "happen again." He added that Waltz and Hegseth shouldn't be punished.

— Justin Green, Andrew Solender, Stephen Neukam and Stef Kight

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

? Scoop: Schumer's crash course

Schumer will gather Democrats with budget reconciliation experts on Wednesday, we scooped this afternoon.

Why it matters: Schumer wants to turn the page on the government funding fight that plunged Democrats into a bitter argument over the party's leadership.

  • The GOP doesn't need Dems to advance their plans to cut taxes and slash spending.
  • But the budget reconciliation process is one of the most consequential messaging opportunities in front of Schumer and Democrats.

— Stephen Neukam

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

NRSC's Scott eyes 55-seat GOP majority in '26

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) said he's working to expand Republicans' Senate majority by two seats in the 2026 midterms.

https://www.axios.com/2025/03/25/tim-scott-axios-whats-next-2026?

? Scott courts Trump

New NRSC Chair Tim Scott is talking with Trump on how to defend GOP incumbents and avoid nasty GOP primaries, he told us in an interview for Axios' What's Next Summit.

Why it matters: The senator says there's no doubt the NRSC will support incumbents, even if they draw a mega-MAGA challenger. But it's virtually impossible to win a primary if Trump turns on them, he acknowledged.

  • "So we want to make sure that the president and I are on the same page on these issues," he said.
  • Scott said he aims to boost the Senate's 53-seat majority to 55 next year and welcomes any financial resources from Elon Musk to make that happen.

Zoom in: Scott's comments on incumbents could provide some assurance for Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who has a primary challenger. He is one of three remaining GOP senators who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial.

  • When asked again to clarify that the NRSC will protect Cassidy in particular, Scott said, "We're going to play in all of the races — all of our primaries."
  • The other Republican senators to watch for primary challenges are Sens. Thom Tillis (N.C.) and John Cornyn (Texas).

Between the lines: Scott had dinner with former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu last night and said he has expressed more interest but isn't locked in for the state's upcoming Senate race.

  • Scott expects a decision from Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp within 60 days, and said while they have been talking to three candidates who are already in elected office as backup, "if [Kemp] runs, he wins."

— Stef Kight

?
 

 

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted
? Jeffries' unwanted wave
 
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios

House Dems are afraid of next year's midterm primaries, and some are skeptical their leaders will help.

  • ? A centrist, swing-district House Dem told us they personally expect to be challenged and said the left is "going after people they think aren't progressive enough ... going after the moderates."
  • ? "People are scared, anxious and pissed," a progressive House Dem told us on the condition of anonymity.

Why it matters: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has a policy of backing incumbents in primaries.

  • But progressive Dems say he did the bare minimum for former "Squad" Reps. Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush, who were primaried in 2024.
  • Said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.): "We believe that incumbents should be protected, we all pay into the DCCC. I think sometimes that doesn't happen. The frontliners get protected, and everyone else gets, you know."

The discontent cuts multiple ways: A senior House Dem said there's a feeling the DCCC "does nothing to help people in primaries" and that there is "a real rift coming ... in this caucus" on the issue.

  • Justice Democrats, a left-wing group that helped Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) primary an incumbent House Dem in 2018, is renewing its efforts to unseat incumbent Democrats this cycle.

Zoom in: Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.), the first Gen Z member of Democratic leadership, predicted "a lot" of primary challenges soon to come. Some have already started.

The bottom line: Jeffries acknowledged the grassroots frustrations yesterday, saying "there is a lot of energy, a lot of angst, a lot of anxiety."

  • "There is definitely a feeling that the younger energy is reinvigorated. And obviously we've seen leadership ... encouraging that," said a House Democrat who spoke anonymously.

— Andrew Solender

Scoop ... Congress' Signal scare
 
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

Several House Dems were targeted on Signal about two months ago from an account purporting to be California Gov. Gavin Newsom, asking them to give him a call.

  • The apparent phishing attempt targeted members of the California delegation, multiple members told us.
  • Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) told us that "no one went all the way through with it to the point of being compromised, but people came close."

Why it matters: Yesterday's Signal fiasco has spooked Capitol Hill, where the app is an indispensable tool for sensitive discussions. Some members use it exclusively to communicate.

  • One House Republican told us they changed their Signal display name to just their initials and removed their photo from their profile in the wake of the story.

Zoom in: A House Democrat told us members are being more "cautious for sure" in their use of Signal since the story broke.

  • A senior House Republican said it is serving as "a good reminder to people to be buttoned up with their communications."

The bottom line: Several lawmakers in both parties stressed that most members know better than to use unsecured apps like Signal to transmit classified or highly sensitive national security information.

  • "I've never seen a member of Congress, who aren't necessarily the most responsible fish in the barrel ... share classified information over Signal," said House Intelligence Committee ranking member Jim Himes (D-Conn.).
  • "Don't put classified [information] on it," said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.).

— Andrew Solender

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • Members
Posted

? New GOP demands

Some of Senate GOP leader John Thune's lawmakers are demanding more — in details, time and spending cuts — before they accept his accelerated clock on reconciliation.

Why it matters: In the Senate, speed doesn't necessarily kill. But deliberation does, as Thune knows.

  • He's betting that he and President Trump can quickly resolve the internal Senate GOP differences. The Senate had been eyeing the week of April 7 for a vote, but Thune's telling them to be ready next week.
  • But even with that compressed calendar, senators want to extract promises on spending cuts — especially if they are going to vote for a debt ceiling increase.
  • "It feels like we're moving in the right direction," said Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.). "We short-circuit the process ... and vote prematurely, I won't be comfortable with signing up for that expedited timeline."

Zoom in: "It makes it that much more important that we get the top-line budget numbers right," Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) told us about a debt ceiling increase. He's insisting that the budget use the Senate's $6 trillion number for next year's spending.

  • "I don't love it, but I understand that it is what the White House wants," Lee said about attaching a debt limit hike.
  • Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) hinted he'd vote against any resolution that didn't cut more spending: "We have to return to reasonable level pre-pandemic spending and a process to actually achieve it,"
  • Young still has reservations about adopting a current policy score, which would zero out the cost of Trump's tax cuts. "I'm hoping we get ample time to give me those details," he said.

The bottom line: Trump thinks of the debt ceiling as a nuisance. Some GOP senators think of it as a tool.

  • Trump tried to get the debt ceiling raised before he was even president, in December, but that failed.
  • The House wants to roll it into their reconciliation bill, and Senate Republican leaders are now on board, but senators like Lee aren't convinced.

— Hans Nichols and Stef Kight

? Schumer's max-pressure strategy

Behind closed doors today, Senate Dems hatched an attack plan to pummel the GOP on budget reconciliation.

Why it matters: Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is under no illusions that Dems can stop the Senate GOP, which can lose three votes and still pass the bill.

  • But he plans to isolate GOP moderates ahead of the vote on Social Security, Medicaid and veterans' care — then make them pay in the upcoming midterms.

Zoom in: Dems see the GOP's failed attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2017 as a blueprint for success.

  • The plan failed after the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) famously gave a "thumbs down" while voting to tank the passage in a final vote.
  • Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said Democratic messaging helped sink that effort: "We look back to what we did in 2017. We ultimately made it so unpopular they couldn't pass it."
  • Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) said today that Dems need four Republicans to vote like McCain to stop the GOP reconciliation plan: "There's got to be four that sees this for what it is."

— Stephen Neukam

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2

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