America's worker-shortage crisis

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Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios

Wherever you look, America is facing acute worker shortages in some of its vital occupations — teachers, bus drivers, cops, plumbers, electricians, carpenters, surveyors, pilots, air traffic controllers and more. Some of the highest-stakes workplaces — hospitals and prisons — are also badly short-staffed. Why it matters: Understaffing in these industries goes beyond inconvenience, with dire potential consequences for public health and safety, Axios' Emily Peck reports. ? What's happening: The causes are demographic, economic and social. Americans are getting older, meaning fewer younger people of working age. Add the tight labor market — unemployment in the U.S. is very low — and there simply aren't enough workers in the U.S. to meet demand. Plus Americans opted out of government jobs after the COVID shock, even as the private sector rebounded. ? Between the lines: Some of these high-stakes shortages are about wages. Government jobs, including teaching and law enforcement, typically can't raise pay high enough to compete with businesses. Some of them are about working conditions: Employers trying to fill in-person, high-stress roles are competing with jobs that offer more flexibility, including remote work. And some of them are about skills: There are only so many people with a ton of expertise creating AI programs, for example. That's the problem in nursing, too. Read on below about the most dire shortages.   ? Where we need workers   Illustration: Rae Cook/Axios   Here are a few of the danger zones, via the Axios experts: ? A lack of qualified workers in AI and manufacturing threatens to slow productivity and growth in areas where the U.S. is otherwise poised for huge leaps. That's a problem not just for companies in those sectors, but for the broader economy. More professionals are needed in deep learning, natural language processing and robotic process automation, the Financial Times reports. ? Parents are feeling the labor squeeze on multiple fronts: Schools nationwide are understaffed, crying for more teachers, bus drivers and social workers. Child care: Parents often either can't find it or can't afford it. That can cause them to stay on the sidelines of the labor force — making the worker shortage that much worse. ✈️ A shortage of air traffic controllers is contributing to an increase in near-miss collisions, the New York Times reports. "While there have been no major U.S. plane crashes in more than a decade," The Times notes, "potentially dangerous incidents are occurring far more frequently than almost anyone realizes — a sign of what many insiders describe as a safety net under mounting stress." ? Police departments have faced mass early retirements, fueled by plummeting morale. Prisons have the same issue: 21% of correctional officer positions were unstaffed in federal prisons last fall, according to administration data. A staffing shortage throughout the Bureau of Prisons is increasing inmate violence, and leading to more health problems for prisoners. ? Fortunate enough to be planning construction or remodeling? Good luck. Many younger workers have shunned the building trades of their parents. "As existing housing stock ages and demand rises for repairs and upgrades, we need to get more young people into the business — fast," writes Thumbtack, the home-repair search firm. An encouraging sign: High-school shop class, after waning for 30 years amid the zest for college prep, is making a comeback. Go deeper below on the outlook for workers.   ? All good for workers   Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios   For workers, this isn't a crisis. A tight labor market means higher pay, better benefits and more congenial employers, Axios' Emily Peck writes. If not for the tight labor market, UPS likely wouldn't have given such a generous contract to union workers — with some drivers earning $170,000 a year in pay and benefits by the end of the five-year contract. ? Reality check: Plenty of employers have figured out ways to adjust to this new normal — particularly retailers and restaurants. They've raised pay significantly — or are relying more on automation, including self-checkout. The bottom line: Demographic reality means labor shortages are likely with us for the foreseeable future. Three things could change that: a surge in immigration ... a surprise flood of sidelined women into the workforce ... or a recession that drives down demand for employees.