Gambling

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? The house always wins

Gamblers play slot machines at the Ocean Casino Resort in Atlantic City, N.J., on Nov. 29, 2023. Photo: Wayne Parry/AP U.S. casinos won nearly $67 billion from gamblers last year — their biggest single-year haul ever. Slot machines brought in the most revenue, while sports betting saw the biggest increase. Americans legally wagered $120 billion on sports, up 28% from 2022, AP reports. Those totals don't include tribal casinos, whose revenues will likely push the industry's total winnings closer to $110 billion.

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Gambling world's big split

Screenshots: X A fissure has emerged in the gambling industry over prediction markets, with casinos crying foul while online betting apps embrace the hot new trend, Axios' Nathan Bomey reports. ?️ Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket let users buy and sell contracts based on a range of outcomes, from elections to TIME's pick for Person of the Year. These markets operate even in states without legalized sportsbooks, and face lots of questions over their legality despite their booming popularity. ? Popular online sportsbooks now want a piece of the prediction market action. Fanatics recently became the first to debut its own prediction platform: Fanatics Markets, in partnership with Crypto.com. FanDuel and DraftKings are now poised to launch their own, too. ? But old-school casinos are reluctant to follow suit. They fear running afoul of state regulators — particularly in Nevada, where the gaming commission has assailed prediction markets as unlawful. Gambling industry consultant Dustin Gouker: "If they're putting their casino licenses in Vegas at risk, that's no bueno — that's terrible for them." ? Friction point: Kalshi and Polymarket may have legal common ground with apps like FanDuel and DraftKings, but they're not exactly comfortable bedfellows. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan last month blasted the "duopoly" of FanDuel and DraftKings as a "scam," telling Axios that the traditional sportsbooks "all rip off the consumer" and that "none of them innovate." It's unclear whether prediction markets will be allowed to keep offering sports-related activity. ? What we're watching: The major prediction markets are striking deals that give them "legitimacy and brand awareness," Gouker tells Axios. Kalshi made agreements this month to feature its data with CNN and CNBC, while Polymarket struck a similar deal with Yahoo Finance in November. ?️ Several prediction markets are now forming a coalition to promote and defend their political interests, people involved in the effort tell Axios. Go deeper.

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? America's betting crisis

Data: National Council on Problem Gambling and The Economist. Chart: Axios Visuals Two charts are going up and to the right at the same time: States are raking in tax revenue from sports betting and online casinos, and calls to the National Problem Gambling Helpline are on the rise, Axios' Erica Pandey reports. Why it matters: America's gambling boom is driving more people into financial and emotional distress, with young men at the epicenter. But the industry continues to expand at breakneck speed, powered by aggressive marketing, state budget incentives and AI. ? Zoom in: Recent studies spotlight the toll of sports betting, which is legal in some form in most states. In states with online gambling, bankruptcy rates rose 28% and debt collection amounts rose 8% — roughly two years after legalization, one paper found. Another study found that every dollar spent on sports betting shaved 99 cents off investments — meaning bettors are pulling from savings, not "fun money." A third study tracked a 20% jump in mass-market alcohol consumption and a 75% spike in calls to helplines after legalization. Data: Census Bureau. Chart: Axios Visuals The crisis is on display on college campuses, The Economist reports (gift link). Colleges' mental health help centers are increasingly hearing from students — overwhelmingly young men — in distress after losing large sums of money in bets. An 18-year-old student at the University of Rhode Island told the Economist that he struggles to enjoy watching sports without the high of betting. Young men are also making risky bets on crypto, meme stocks and the prediction markets, The Wall Street Journal reports. ? What to watch: AI is poised to supercharge the gambling industry, says David Sasaki, a tech policy expert at the American Institute for Boys and Men. The technology can help sportsbooks fine-tune their odds — making them even less likely to lose. It can also figure out when users are most likely to place bigger or riskier bets, pinpoint who's prone to making bad ones, and target them with ads at their most vulnerable moments.

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Everything is gambling now

Illustration: Maura Kearns/Axios Gambling culture is enveloping American life: What was once a fringe vice is fast becoming a mass-market habit — raising urgent questions about addiction, fairness and regulation. You can now wager on everything: the midterms, the Oscars, the Second Coming (5% chance before next year), Axios' Nathan Bomey reports. 🎰 Danny Funt, author of "Everybody Loses: The Tumultuous Rise of American Sports Gambling," said: "It seems like everything is gambling now, and the appetite for gambling on the most obscure stuff is pretty bonkers." The entire activity has become "normalized," he adds: "This used to be something people did discreetly." 💰 The American Gaming Association projects that $1.7 billion will be legally wagered on today's big game. Online sportsbooks took off after 2018, sparking a fundamental shift in gambling culture. The newest catalyst: Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, which let Americans risk money on nearly any event. Toni Gemayel, Coinbase's head of prediction markets: "If you're somebody that reads the news very closely and you may have an informed position or informed point of view, you can now express yourself on a position." 🏀 Recent scandals have exposed professional and collegiate sports' vulnerability to manipulation via gambling. Critics say some prediction market users — possibly including insiders — are capitalizing on specific news knowledge. Go deeper.

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Utah’s anti-gambling tradition, fueled by religious faith, meets a new challenge: prediction markets  For more than a century, Utah has kept gambling almost entirely out of the state. There are no casinos, no lotteries, no racetracks that allow bets. It’s a prohibition rooted in the conservative ideals of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, widely known as the Mormon church. The state is now fighting a new battle to keep gambling outside its borders. It's on the verge of enacting a law intended to undercut prediction markets which allow anyone with a smartphone to wager on the possible outcomes of virtually any sort of event. Read more.

Why this matters: While regulators and other states are still debating whether those markets constitute finance or gambling, Utah has already made up its mind. Gov. Spencer Cox says he will sign the restrictive legislation, putting conservative Utah at odds with the federal government.    Kalshi, one of the major prediction markets, has already sued Utah. The company is backed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency responsible for regulating financial markets.    President Donald Trump's eldest son is an adviser for Kalshi and Polymarket, another major player in the field. Trump’s social media platform Truth Social is also launching its own cryptocurrency-based prediction market called Truth Predict.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ A $400,000 payout after Maduro’s capture is putting prediction markets in the spotlight  Trump administration backs Kalshi, Polymarket as states move to ban prediction markets  Prediction markets love sports, but the feeling isn’t exactly mutual

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Big AI bets

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

As the United States gears up to celebrate a signature innovation — modern democracy! — American industry is pushing to lead in the high-tech innovation race of the future. From the White House to state capitals, leaders are reshaping how America innovates, and they're placing high-stakes bets on AI and science that may set the course for the next 250 years. ⚠️ But America's domination isn't guaranteed — especially if it places the wrong bets, write Axios senior tech policy reporter Ashley Gold and editor Mackenzie Weinger. To help explain how today's policies are shaping the future, we isolated three pillars driving our next era of innovation: 1. Betting big on robotics: The next era won't be won in the cloud. It'll be won on factory floors. The U.S. leads today in large language models and foundational AI. But integrating AI into physical systems — in other words, creating practical uses that improve our lives — will matter more than flashy LLM breakthroughs. 🤖 That's where robots come in. The number of new robots deployed each year has more than doubled from a decade ago, now topping 500,000 units globally. But Beijing is leading the robot revolution: China has over 2 million industrial robots inside its factories — five times more than the U.S. 🔎 What we're watching: The White House is reportedly considering an executive order that could spur production of robotics in the U.S. as part of a push to reshore manufacturing. 2. Going all in on data centers and AI infrastructure: Robots could build the future, but data centers will power it. The Trump administration has made it a policy priority to expand the infrastructure behind the AI boom. 📣 President Trump issued an executive order last July to speed up AI data center projects, calling for faster and more efficient permitting approval. 🔎 What we're watching: Local tensions around the impact that massive data centers have on electricity prices and quality of life are intensifying, and some communities have blocked projects entirely. 3. Relying on industry — and regulating less. The new rulebook is to let the market lead: move fast, regulate later and let that ethos pave the way for the next generation of innovation. The government is pulling back from bankrolling the kind of basic research that previously made America a tech superpower. Instead, it's leaning into a market-driven system of innovation spurred by venture capital cash, Big Tech action and Silicon Valley's influence on policy. 📉 By the numbers: Federal money funded 67% of research and development in the 1960s. Now, it's just 19%, according to the most recent NSF data. The private sector now funds about 75% of domestic R&D. 🔎 What we're watching: In the absence of major legislation or regulations providing AI rules of the road, procurement is policy. The government is shaping the future of innovation through its contracts and partnerships. Read on for a snapshot of transformational AI innovations we're tracking.

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🔒 Exclusive: Kalshi cracks down on kids

Data: Common Sense Media survey of 1,017 boys ages 11-17. Chart: Nathan Bomey/Axios Axios' Nathan Bomey, who closely tracks the prediction market and gambling industry, writes: Kalshi is adding new tools to prevent minors from trading on its prediction market but is resisting calls to block users aged 18-20. Why it matters: Prediction markets are surging in popularity as a way to risk money on sports, politics and news. They're also facing mounting political scrutiny over their contribution to America's gambling culture. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour tells Axios that while kids are already banned from trading on the platform, the company is taking several additional steps to prevent them from doing so, including: Requiring all users to use facial recognition technology when opening the app, making it more difficult for kids to use family accounts to log in. Requesting selfies of certain users deemed to be at higher risk of problematic trading.