Global

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Global tinderbox moment

Photo illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios. Photos: Kim Jae-Hwan/SOPA Images/LightRocket, Taiwan's Military News Agency/Anadolu, Anwar Amro/AFP, Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images

This election year could be turned on its head by an international crisis — and it won't necessarily come from the Middle East, Axios' Dave Lawler writes. Why it matters: The war in Gaza is dominating coverage. But the past few days have been peppered with warning signs from other global hotspots: Taiwan, North Korea, Ukraine and Iran. ? The big picture: Global alliances have shifted over the past few years. China and Russia — joined by other autocracies — have deepened a partnership heavily focused on challenging America and the West. Snapshots of that competition are popping up all over the world: Pacific Island countries being aggressively courted by Beijing and Washington. African nations booting the U.S. and welcoming Russia. Chinese President Xi Jinping visiting Europe for the first time in five years. Then there are the much-feared scenarios that could see the "new cold war" with autocratic powers turn hot: A Chinese move on Taiwan. Escalation by Russia beyond Ukraine. North Korean brinkmanship. A nuclear crisis with Iran. Zoom in: None of those appear imminent. But the past week showed they all remain plausible: ?? 1. China has conducted large-scale military exercises around Taiwan in the week since a proponent of close ties with Washington was inaugurated as president. It's part of a pattern of intimidation that some experts and officials see as a prelude to eventual invasion. ?? 2. Russian troops are clawing back territory in eastern Ukraine and menacing the country's second-largest city, Kharkiv, in Moscow's most significant battlefield successes in more than a year. President Biden is facing growing pressure from NATO allies to allow Ukraine to use U.S.-provided weapons to strike inside Russia. ?? 3. A North Korean spy satellite exploded in a failed rocket launch Monday. U.S. officials are expecting more, potentially serious, provocations this year from Kim Jong-un. The U.S. is also watching Kim's burgeoning partnership with Vladimir Putin. ?? 4. Iran has increased stockpiles of near-weapons-grade uranium, the UN's nuclear watchdog warned Monday. The country's upcoming presidential election to replace Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash, comes amid fears of a clash with Israel. What to watch: Israel's escalation in Rafah poses a major test for President Biden and his foreign policy team. Fellow Democrats are urging him to withdraw military support after an Israeli strike killed 45 displaced Palestinians. Keep reading.

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Lessons from a bumpy ‘super year’ of global elections Some 70 countries, home to half the world’s population, held elections this year, and many incumbents were punished. From India and the United States to Japan, France, and Britain, voters tired of economic disruption and global instability rejected sitting governments — and sometimes turned to disruptive outsiders. Read more.

Why this matters: One message sent by voters in 2024: They’re fed up. University of Manchester political scientist Rob Ford has attributed the anti-incumbent mood to “electoral long COVID” -– lingering pandemic-related health, education, social and economic disruptions that have made millions of people unhappier and worse off. High inflation, fueled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and mass displacement from that war and conflicts in the Middle East and Africa have added to the global unease.   Instability reigns as the year ends. Possibly the year’s most seismic result, Donald Trump’s victory in November’s U.S. presidential election, has America’s allies and opponents bracing for what the unpredictable “America-first” leader will do with his second term.   Democracy’s bumpy ride looks likely to continue in 2025, with embattled incumbents facing challenges in countries including Germany, where Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote on Dec. 16, triggering an early election likely in February. Canada will also vote in 2025, with the governing Liberals widely unpopular and increasingly divided after almost a decade in power.

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