Michigan poll: Trump's edge takes notable leap in battleground state Todd Spangler

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ELECTIONS

Michigan poll: Trump's edge takes notable leap in battleground state

Todd Spangler

Detroit Free Press

 

 

 

Editor's note: This story has been updated to reflect that Biden has since abandoned his reelection bid. Check Freep.com for the latest.

An exclusive new Free Press poll of likely Michigan voters that showed former President Donald Trump with a notable 7-percentage-point lead over incumbent President Joe Biden in the state was released Sunday just hours before Biden, beset by questions about his age and fitness, abandoned his reelection bid.

It was not known if the poll played any role in Biden's decision to step down as the Democratic Party's nominee and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him. But without question, it added to the drumbeat of bad news for the Biden campaign in Michigan and other battleground states that had some Democrats skeptical of his chances of beating Trump and calling on him to step aside.

 

"It's only going to add to the pressure on Biden to step aside and have someone replace him," Bernie Porn, the pollster for EPIC-MRA in Lansing, which conducted the survey of 600 voters for the Free Press and its media partners, told the Free Press when the poll was released. "The Democrats are in a difficult position."

 

In a message posted on social media shortly before 2 p.m., Biden said, "I believe it is in the best interest of my party and my country for me to stand down and focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president for the remainder of my term."

The poll showed Trump, who held a rally in Grand Rapids on Saturday evening, leading Biden 49%-42% in a head-to-head matchup, with 9% undecided, saying they would vote for neither or refusing to answer. In a five-way race, Trump led with 43% to 36% for Biden, 8% for independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 2% each for Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West. Again 9% said they either would not vote for president, pick someone else or were undecided.

Trump led in every region of the state, including in metro Detroit — defined as Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties and seen as the most predominantly Democratic region in Michigan — where he held a slim but remarkable 46%-44% edge in the head-to-head matchup with Biden and a 43%-38% margin in the five-way race.

Trump's lead in metro Detroit was a significant indicator of how the political winds have changed for Biden, who four years ago, beat Trump 56%-40% in the region.

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The poll, which came after a disastrous debate performance by Biden in late June when he struggled to form coherent answers and followed last Saturday's assassination attempt against Trump in Pennsylvania, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. EPIC-MRA began the survey the same day Trump was wounded in that assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, in which a spectator was killed and two other people were seriously injured. Secret Service shot and killed the gunman. The polling ended Wednesday, the third day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where Trump accepted his party's nomination for the third time.

Its result showed Trump had more than doubled his lead in Michigan, a pivotal swing state, since EPIC-MRA's last poll, done just before the June 27 presidential debate in Atlanta. In that poll, Trump led by 3 points in the head-to-head matchup.

 

 

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Porn, who has been doing polling in Michigan for decades, said he couldn't remember a survey he'd done showing a Republican presidential candidate in such a strong position in the state since then-Vice President George H.W. Bush ran successfully for president in 1988. Bush was the last Republican to win Michigan until Trump eked out a narrow win over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 by two-tenths of a percentage point.

Biden took Michigan by about 3 percentage points over Trump four years ago on his way to winning the White House.

The new poll added to other recent ones showing growing levels of support for Trump in other swing states, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, further calling into question Biden's chances of winning reelection amid questions about his age — at 81, he's already the oldest president ever — and mental fitness. Tellingly, the poll found a majority of respondents, 52%, believed Biden should step aside and not run, compared with 36% who believed he should remain the Democratic nominee. Twelve percent were undecided.

 

More than 30 Democratic members of Congress had called for Biden to step aside as the nominee, including one from Michigan, U.S. Rep. Hillary Scholten, D-Grand Rapids.

In the poll, Democrats were split on the question of whether Biden should step aside, with 46% saying he should to 43% saying he shouldn't and 11% undecided. Independents and Republicans were more certain, with 55% of each bloc saying he should step down and 32% saying he shouldn't, with the rest undecided.