Middle East War

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A Tentative Deal

The US and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire yesterday afternoon, finding an off-ramp to avoid potential widespread strikes across Iran. The agreement was mediated by Pakistan, with officials pointing to the possibility of a longer-term pause in fighting. In the hours leading up to the cutoff, President Donald Trump levied threats against Iran online, including that a "whole civilization [would] die" if Iranian officials failed to strike a deal (read the original post on Truth Social). The post came after the US carried out more than 90 strikes on Iran's oil export hub at Kharg Island—a strategic outcropping surrounded by deep waters needed for supertankers and capable of exporting 7 million barrels of oil per day. See a video of joint US-Iran exercises from 1964, when the countries were allies. Separately, an Iranian-backed militia in Iraq reportedly released US hostage Shelly Kittleson. See footage of the kidnapping last week here.

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White-knuckle truce

Shia Muslims hold portraits of Iran's slain supreme leader Ali Khamenei and his son and successor Mojtaba Khamenei, during a procession in Karachi. Photo: Rizwan Tabassum/AFP via Getty Backstory to the two-week ceasefire announced last evening: Officials in the U.S. and Israel learned of an intriguing development on Monday with President Trump's ultimatum looming, Axios' Barak Ravid, Dave Lawler and Marc Caputo write. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had instructed his negotiators, for the first time since the war began, to move toward a deal, according to an Israeli official, a regional official and a third source with knowledge. The big picture: As Trump was publicly threatening total annihilation, there were signs of diplomatic momentum behind the scenes — though even sources close to Trump didn't know which outcome to expect right up until a ceasefire was announced. U.S. forces in the Middle East and officials in the Pentagon spent those closing hours preparing for a massive bombing campaign on Iranian infrastructure, and trying to figure out where Trump was leaning. "We had no idea what was going to happen. It was wild," a defense official said. Allies in the region were bracing for Iranian retaliation on an unprecedented scale. Inside Iran, some civilians were fleeing their homes in an attempt to avoid the brunt of the strikes. This account of the diplomacy that staved off that escalation, for now, is based on conversations with 11 sources with knowledge of the talks. ⏱️ By Monday night, Pakistani mediators had U.S. approval for an updated proposal for a two-week ceasefire. The sources said it was then up to Khamenei, actively involved in the process the past two days, to decide. The involvement of the new supreme leader was necessarily clandestine and laborious. Facing an active threat of assassination by Israel, Khamenei has been communicating primarily via runners passing notes. Two sources said Khamenei giving the negotiators his blessing to cut a deal was the "breakthrough." All major decisions the past two days went through Khamenei. "Without his green light, there wouldn't have been a deal," the regional source said. Today's New York Post, New York Times. How it happened: It was clear by yesterday morning that progress was being made, but that didn't stop Trump from making his most harrowing threat: "A whole civilization will die tonight." By around noon ET yesterday, there was a general understanding that the parties were converging on a two-week ceasefire. At 6:32 p.m. ET, Trump announced "a double sided CEASEFIRE!" Screenshot: Truth Social 🔭 What to watch: It remains to be seen to what degree Iran will allow shipping to resume or how steadfast Netanyahu will be in his adherence to the ceasefire. A senior Israeli official told Axios that Netanyahu had received assurances the U.S. would insist in peace talks that Iran give up its nuclear material, cease enrichment, and abandon its ballistic missile threat. Vice President JD Vance is likely to lead the U.S. delegation at talks planned for Friday in Pakistan — easily the most consequential assignment of his political career. There are still major gaps between the U.S. and Iranian visions for a deal, leaving the very real possibility the war will resume.

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How Trump went from threatening Iran’s annihilation to agreeing to a two-week ceasefire with Tehran President Donald Trump over the course of a day went from threatening Iran with “annihilation” to proclaiming that the battered Islamic Republic’s leadership had presented a “workable” plan that led him to agree to a 14-day ceasefire that he expects to pave the way to end the nearly six-week-old war. Read more.

What to know: The dramatic shift in tenor came as intermediaries, led by Pakistan, worked feverishly to head off a further escalation of the conflict. Even China — Iran’s biggest trading partner and the United States’ most significant economic competitor — quietly pulled strings to find a pathway toward a ceasefire, according to two officials briefed on the matter who were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity.    The ceasefire announcement came after Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif urged Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks to allow diplomacy to advance while also asking Iran to open the strait for two weeks. “The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East,” Trump declared in a social media post announcing the temporary ceasefire.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ US, Israel and Iran agree to a 2-week ceasefire as Trump pulls back on his threats   Photos of reactions to the ceasefire deal   American journalist Shelly Kittleson released after kidnapping in Iraq   ps:Imagine that "diplomacy" a word that's not in trumps vocabulary!!!!!

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Ceasefire is threatened as Israel expands Lebanon strikes and Iran closes strait again

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — A ceasefire deal to pause the war in Iran appeared to hang by a thread Wednesday after the Islamic Republic closed the Strait of Hormuz again in response to Israeli attacks in Lebanon. The White House demanded that the channel be reopened and sought to keep peace talks on track.

https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-trump-lebanon-april-8-2026-38d75d5e4f1c7339a1456fc99415bb2a?

Iran accuses US of violating parts of deal framework, says ceasefire is ‘unreasonable’

https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-04-08-2026?

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Ceasefire confusion reigns

Iranians celebrate in Tehran early today after the ceasefire announcement. Photo: AFP via Getty Images The U.S., Israel and Iran agree that a ceasefire is in effect — but they're contradicting each other and themselves on what's been agreed on and what happens next, Axios' Barak Ravid writes. Those differences will have to be reconciled in negotiations, starting Saturday in Islamabad, Pakistan. One thing everyone agrees on: There's no guarantee the war is over. 🚢 President Trump's key condition for a ceasefire was reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But it's unclear how open it actually is. Iran halted ships there today after fresh Israeli attacks against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, per Iranian state media. Iran and the Pakistani mediators say the ceasefire applies to Lebanon. The U.S. and Israel disagree. (Go deeper.) 🛢️ Attacks also took place during the ceasefire's first 12 hours against oil facilities in Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait. Pakistan's prime minister warned such actions "undermine the spirit of the peace process." Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth takes questions at the Pentagon today. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images 📡 Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at a press conference today that Iran's attacks continued because of Iranian communications issues. Hegseth said: "It takes time for a ceasefire to take hold. We think it will." Both sides say they can quickly resume fighting: Hegseth said today: "We will be hanging around to make sure Iran complies. ... We are prepared to restart in a moment's notice." Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement: "We are with our hand on the trigger, ready to respond to any attack with more force." 👀 Attention now shifts to Saturday's negotiations, with Vice President JD Vance leading the U.S. team. The sides are far apart on several core issues, including money to rebuild Iranian buildings and infrastructure, the fate of Iran's nuclear program, and ending the war between Israel and Hezbollah. Go deeper. ps:Anytime trump is involved there's going to be confusion!!!!!

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💸 War fallout is just starting

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

The economic fallout from five weeks of effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is just beginning, Axios Macro co-authors Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin write. The gloomiest forecasts for the U.S. economy from the war may not come to pass, assuming the ceasefire works. But shortages and price shocks will continue to pinch the world for months. Zoom out: The risks are many, and not easily solved. 🚢 The backlog of stranded ships could take weeks to clear even under ideal circumstances. 🏗️ Infrastructure damage from attacks in recent weeks has resulted in energy shortages across the globe and could take years to repair. 🛢️ It'll take time to restart production at facilities that curtailed output. ⚠️ There are real prospects that Iran will now effectively tax shipments through the strait indefinitely. That would create a new constraint on the global supply of oil and other commodities that didn't exist before the war. 📈 Stunning stat: Even if the strait fully reopened right now, oil prices will still be 20% higher in coming years than before the war, David Byrns, portfolio manager for American Century Investments, tells Axios Future of Energy author Amy Harder. 💊 What to watch: Early evidence of the war's lingering impact may show up in pharmaceutical prices, Axios' Peter Sullivan writes. Generic medicines manufactured in India, which can require temperature controls and other complex handling, often fly through Middle East hubs, including Dubai.

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US-Iran ceasefire

A massive strike by Israel on Lebanon has put a strain on the US and Iran’s uneasy ceasefire. Iran has accused Israel of breaking the deal, but the US and Israel claim the agreement doesn’t cover Hezbollah in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed today that shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply and then stopped following Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon. Marine tracking data showed no ships transiting the strait following an earlier report that traffic had resumed after the ceasefire came into effect. Vice President JD Vance restated that if Iran does not follow through on promises to reopen the strait, the ceasefire will end.

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Iran ceasefire at risk with possible mines in Strait of Hormuz A tentative ceasefire staggered Thursday under the weight of Israel’s intense bombardment of Beirut, Tehran’s continued chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, and uncertainty over whether negotiators can find common ground on a range of other differences. Read more.

What to know: Iran and the U.S. — which both declared victory in the wake of the ceasefire announcement — appeared to try to pressure each other. Semiofficial news agencies in Iran suggested forces have mined the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for the world’s oil whose closure has proved Tehran’s greatest strategic advantage in the conflict. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, warned that U.S. forces would hit Iran even harder than before if it did not fulfill the agreement.   What the agreement means remains in deep dispute. Beyond whether Lebanon is included, there are questions over what will happen to Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, how and when normal traffic will resume through the strait, and what happens to Iran’s ability to launch missile attacks in the future.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ What the Iran ceasefire deal means depends on which side you talk to   Iran’s proposal to collect tolls in the Strait of Hormuz violates trade norms   The world’s most important 21 miles: How the Strait of Hormuz powers a huge part of the global economy   WATCH: Search and rescue efforts to find survivors after Israeli strikes kill at least 182 in Lebanon   After Trump’s Iran ultimatum and a fragile ceasefire, Iranian Americans brace for what’s next   Trump complains NATO ‘wasn’t there when we needed them’ after talks with alliance leader Rutte   Trump’s Iran war widens rift with European nationalists once viewed as MAGA allies

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Few ships dare sail Hormuz

Satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz in January. Image: Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data via Getty Images The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway south of Iran vital to the normal functioning of the global economy — remains effectively closed, Barak Ravid and Alex Fitzpatrick report. That's despite Iran's promise to reopen Hormuz as part of the eleventh-hour ceasefire deal President Trump announced Tuesday. The first non-Iranian tanker transited the strait today since the war began. It's unclear if more will follow, or how many. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a new message today that during negotiations with the U.S. starting Saturday, Iran "will bring the management of the Strait of Hormuz into a new stage." 💸 Iran wants to impose a $1-per-barrel toll on oil tankers, paid in cryptocurrency, the Financial Times reports. (🔐) That would keep global energy prices elevated indefinitely — plus violate international norms of free navigation. ⛔️ Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, said on LinkedIn today: "This moment requires clarity. So let's be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open." "Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled. Iran has made clear — through both its statements and actions — that passage is subject to permission, conditions and political leverage." 🚢 Hundreds of tankers and nearly 20,000 mariners are stranded in the Persian Gulf amid the crisis, the N.Y. Times reports (gift link). A U.S. official tells Axios that the strait is "wide open," but said ships are not moving through it because they're intimidated by the Iranians. The official said: "Iran has threatened and coerced everybody." 👀 What we're watching: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today announced negotiations with Lebanon, where Israel has been conducting an extensive bombing campaign. Iran believes Israel's attacks there violate the ceasefire deal, and it might abandon peace talks or keep Hormuz closed as a result. Go deeper.

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Ceasefire Under Strain

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said yesterday he is seeking direct talks with Lebanon to disarm Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants. The announcement came a day after Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon killed more than 300 people and followed repeated requests from Beirut. Talks between the two countries are expected to begin next week in Washington, DC.  Israel's military said it targeted over 100 sites, including Hezbollah headquarters and command-and-control centers. The bombardment has strained a two-week US-Iran ceasefire brokered Tuesday, which Israel says does not cover its operations in Lebanon. More than 1 million people in Lebanon have been displaced since last month, and at least 1,500 people have been killed, per Lebanon's health ministry. European leaders yesterday called for Lebanon to be included in the ceasefire.  Meanwhile, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, with Iran continuing to block vessel passage as the US-Iran ceasefire hangs in the balance. Vice President JD Vance is expected to travel to Pakistan this weekend for peace talks with Iran.   Iran impacts The lives of millions of people across the Middle East — and the fate of the global economy — will hinge on the outcome of make-or-break talks between the US and Iran this weekend in Pakistan. The fragile two-week ceasefire that paved the way for the talks is holding for now — although it isn’t giving shippers the nerve to brave the narrow Strait of Hormuz that holds the key to 20% of the world’s oil supply. Israel’s massive bombardment of Hezbollah and disagreements over whether Lebanon is included in the truce could still derail the meetings.

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🇮🇷 Iran's real red line

Thousands of Iranians turned out in Tehran yesterday for a memorial march marking 40 days since the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Photo: Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images A smart strategic insight on the war that Axios CEO Jim VandeHei shared last weekend in his new weekly newsletter for CEOs: Iran's present and future depend on the Strait of Hormuz, not nuclear weapons. It's their only remaining source of wealth, influence and power, regionally and globally. Axios Middle East expert Barak Ravid, the world's best-sourced reporter on the topic, told Jim: "During the war, Iran really discovered how it can hold the world by the balls with the Strait of Hormuz. ... Even if the Iranians reopen it at the end of the war, they know they have deterrence for the future." 🚢 The context: As Axios PM reported yesterday in "Hormuz blues," very few ships are daring to navigate Hormuz. Hundreds of tankers are lingering in the region, hoping to get through. President Trump wrote on Truth Social yesterday: "Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!"

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Vance sets off to Pakistan to lead talks with Iran as war’s ceasefire remains shaky Vice President JD Vance, who has long been skeptical of foreign military interventions and outspoken about the prospect of sending troops into open-ended conflicts, will lead mediated talks with Iran in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad. Read more.

Why this matters: It comes as a tenuous, temporary ceasefire appears close to collapse. The chasm between Iran’s public demands and those from the U.S. and its partner Israel seem irreconcilable.   The arrival of Vance for negotiations marks a rare moment of high-level U.S. government engagement with the Iranian government. Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the most direct contact had been when President Barack Obama in September 2013 called newly elected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to discuss Iran’s nuclear program.   This is the highest-stakes moment thus far for Vance, who might run for president. Vance, who served in the Iraq War while in the Marines, spent two years as a U.S. senator and a little more than one as vice president, has little diplomatic experience. He spent much of last year as more of a background player in the Trump White House, especially as others like Elon Musk and Secretary of State Marco Rubio took turns as ever-present advisers for the president.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Why Pakistan has emerged as a mediator between US and Iran   Live updates: Pakistan’s capital in lockdown ahead of Iran-US talks as ceasefire remains shaky   Trump’s tenuous Iran exit plan isn’t healing Republican rifts exposed by the war   Ceasefire deal brings relief to some in Iran, but Trump’s threat to end a civilization still echoes   Zelenskyy says Ukrainian forces shot down Shahed drones in Middle Eastern countries during Iran war   Gaza marks 6 months of a ceasefire that may offer lessons for the Iran war

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Iran war kicks US inflation into high gear after gas prices soar

The largest monthly jump in gas prices in six decades caused a sharp spike in inflation in March, creating major challenges for the inflation-fighters at the Federal Reserve and heightening the political challenges of rising costs for the White House. Consumer prices rose 3.3% in March from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Friday, up sharply from just 2.4% in February and the biggest yearly increase since May 2024. Read more.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤

IMF chief warns that Iran war will slow global economic growth Live updates: Vance warns Tehran not to ‘play’ the US as he departs for negotiations aimed at ending war with Iran Well-timed bets on Polymarket tied to the Iran war draw calls for investigations from lawmakers

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⚡ Driving the day: Peace talks

Pakistani officials greeted Vice President JD Vance as he and top Iranian officials landed in Islamabad earlier today. Photo: Jacquelyn Martin/AP Direct negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, with Pakistani mediation, have started in Islamabad today, according to Iranian media reports. It's the first round of talks aimed at converting the fragile two-week ceasefire into lasting peace. "We still don't agree on what we are negotiating about," one U.S. official told Axios ahead of the meeting. U.S. and Iranian officials held separate talks with Pakistan's prime minister today. Get the latest.

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US and Iran end 21-hour ceasefire talks without agreement before Vance departs Pakistan

ISLAMABAD (AP) — The United States and Iran ended a historic round of face-to-face talks early Sunday without reaching an agreement and the fate of the fragile, two-week ceasefire still unclear.

https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-trump-lebanon-april-11-2026-2be904aee3f804892336730279e054b9?

Vance says talks with Iran have ended without an agreement

https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-04-11-2026?

US military says it will blockade Iranian ports after ceasefire talks ended without agreement

ISLAMABAD (AP) — President Donald Trump said Sunday the U.S. Navy would swiftly begin a blockade of ships entering or leaving the strategic Strait of Hormuz, after U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan ended without an agreement.

https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-trump-lebanon-april-12-2026-a8a0d22918fc3fb30bc3abf1cd5c5a13?

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US Blockades Hormuz

President Donald Trump announced yesterday that the US would begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz. The decision comes after talks with Iran collapsed Saturday over broad disagreements, including Iran's nuclear program, ending the highest-level negotiations between the two since 1979.  Iran has been selectively blockading the strait since the US and Israel attacked Iran in February. Some ships have been allowed to pass, with Iran charging a toll of up to $2M each. Iran itself exported 1.9 million barrels of crude oil per day in March, reportedly up 100,000 barrels per day from the prior three months. Meanwhile, at least 22 ships have been attacked, with 10 crew members killed and 800 commercial vessels stranded (half of them oil tankers). Before the conflict, 20% of the world’s oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz.  Explore how the war has impacted gas prices in your state here (w/map).

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Race to revive Iran talks

Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators will continue talks with the U.S. and Iran in the coming days in an effort to bridge the remaining gaps and reach a deal to end the war, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.

• Why it matters: All parties still believe a deal is possible. The mediators hope that narrowing the gaps could enable another round of negotiations before the ceasefire expires on April 21.

A regional source told us: "We are not in a complete deadlock. The door is not closed yet. Both sides are bargaining. It's a bazaar."

• A U.S. official added that a deal could be reached if Iran shows more flexibility and recognizes that the Islamabad proposal is the best it will get.

🖼️ The big picture: President Trump is considering resuming strikes if a U.S. naval blockade doesn't make Iran change course, sources said.

• Targets could include infrastructure he threatened to attack before the ceasefire was announced.
• The blockade, like the U.S. decision to walk away from the talks in Pakistan, is part of the ongoing negotiations, a U.S. official said.

The official claimed Trump wants to prevent Iran from using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage.

Behind the scenes: The main gaps during the 21-hour negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan focused on the nuclear issue.

• One was U.S. demands that Iran freeze uranium enrichment and surrender its stockpile.
• Another was the amount of frozen money Iran wants the U.S. to release in return for its nuclear concessions, sources said.

👀 What to watch: U.S. Central Command says the naval blockade begins this morning at 10 a.m. ET.

🛢️ Trump is pairing his Iran blockade with a sales pitch: Countries squeezed by the Strait of Hormuz — especially China — should buy more oil from the U.S. instead, Ben Geman writes for Axios Future of Energy.

• "China can send their ships to us. China can send their ships to Venezuela," Trump said on Fox's "Sunday Morning Futures."

🥊 Reality check: The U.S. doesn't have the capacity to come close to replacing the massive flows normally moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Go deeper.

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One big split remains

Differences over Iran's nuclear program were the main roadblock during peace talks in Islamabad this weekend, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.

• The U.S. and Iran disagree on the length of a proposed halt for Iran's uranium enrichment program, according to a U.S. official and a knowledgeable source.
• The U.S. proposed a 20-year stoppage. The Iranians countered with a shorter "single-digit" period.

The U.S. also asked Iran to remove all highly enriched uranium from the country.

• The Iranians said they'd instead agree to a "monitored process of down-blending" it, the sources say.

⏳ International mediators are trying to bridge the remaining gaps before the ceasefire ends next Tuesday.

• A 45–60 day extension is possible, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Anadolu news agency today.

😮 The Iranians thought they were close to an initial agreement by yesterday morning, but were surprised by Vice President Vance's press conference to the contrary.

• Vance gave no indication that a deal was close, blamed the Iranians and said the U.S. team was leaving Islamabad.

A source told us: "The Iranians were pissed off about that press conference."

⚓️ A U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz took effect this morning.

• The idea is to tighten the economic pressure on Iran, and to prevent it from having sole authority on shipping in the vital economic corridor, Axios' Emily Peck writes. (Go deeper.)
• Even if a deal gets made, de-mining Hormuz remains a critical issue.

What's next: A U.S. official tells Axios that "there is continued engagement between the U.S. and Iran and forward motion on trying to get to an agreement."

• Go deeper.

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🌐 Rubio's rare meeting

Smoke rises following artillery shelling in southern Lebanon on Saturday. Photo: Amir Cohen/Reuters Barak Ravid, our Middle East expert, writes: Secretary of State Marco Rubio will host ultra-rare talks between the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington today. It'll be the highest-level direct meeting between Israel and Lebanon since 1993. Why it matters: The talks will focus on a possible ceasefire and longer-term disarmament of Hezbollah, along with a peace deal between Israel and Lebanon, sources say. Go deeper.

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How a US blockade of Iranian ports could work and the impact ahead for the global economy A blockade of Iranian ports that President Donald Trump said began Monday has spurred questions about international law and leaves doubts about whether the pressure tactic will force Tehran to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz. Read more.

Why this matters: Blockades historically haven’t been enough on their own to force the other side's hand, but have been used to exert pressure on other countries and their economies during conflicts.   With fears of attacks, experts say most ships won’t want to take the risk. The waterway could effectively stay shut — and prices, particularly for oil and gasoline, could rise even more. Global supply chains also could see further disruption. The U.S. may have to consider whether to allow humanitarian aid to reach Iranian ports, a decision that could determine the blockade’s legality under international law.   The blockade also risks an Iranian response that could reignite the conflict, said Farzin Nadimi, who specializes in Iran and the Persian Gulf at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Iran could deploy naval mines, small fast-attack boats and missiles against shipping in response, further disrupting the global economy.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ WATCH: Trump says blockade is in effect but Iran wants a deal ‘very badly’   Live Blog: Pakistan proposes new US-Iran talks as Vance and Trump hint at progress   Lebanon and Israel to hold first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington

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Second round of US-Iran talks possible

The standoff between the United States and Iran deepened Tuesday as the U.S. declared it had blockaded Iran’s ports, Tehran threatened to strike targets across the region, and Pakistan said it was racing to bring the sides together for more talks. Two U.S. officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic negotiations, said on Monday that discussions were still underway about a new round of talks. Read more.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤

Hezbollah official says the group won’t abide by any agreements from Lebanon-Israel talks in the US Citing fallout from the Iran war, IMF cuts the outlook for global growth, expects higher inflation US forces to join combat drills in Philippines to show commitment to Asia while fighting Iran

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Peace talks

President Trump has hinted that US-Iran peace talks could resume this week, with Vice President JD Vance expected to lead a potential second round of negotiations ahead of next week's ceasefire deadline. The main areas of disagreement continue to be Iran's nuclear program and Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Vance, there are two non-negotiables for Trump: Removing Iran's enriched uranium from the country and implementing verification measures to ensure it cannot obtain nuclear weapons. Read more

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🚢 No ships have made it through the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command said on X today. Nine vessels have been turned around by U.S. forces.

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US pivots to economic warfare on Iran If the U.S. and Iran aren’t able to soon come to a deal to end the war or extend the ceasefire, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters at a White House briefing Wednesday that the U.S. plans to ramp up economic pain on Iran, and said the new moves will be the “financial equivalent” of a bombing campaign. Read more.

Why this matters: The warning comes the day after the Treasury Department sent a letter to financial institutions in China, Hong Kong, the UAE and Oman, threatening to levy secondary sanctions for doing business with Iran, and accusing those countries of allowing Iranian illicit activities to flow through their financial institutions.   However, more sanctions could be ineffective or risk diplomatic and economic blowback, say experts and lawmakers. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the top Democrat on the Banking Committee, argued that any new economic sanctions would be effectively offset by the oil revenue windfall that Iran was seeing in the aftermath of the war.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ US aircraft carrier breaks record for longest deployment since the Vietnam War   Live updates: Pakistan delegation meets Iranian officials hoping for more US-Iran talks   How a US blockade on Iran has sanctioned ships turning around

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Peace talks

The Trump administration has expressed confidence about striking a deal with Iran, with a potential second round of in-person talks likely to take place in Pakistan. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said nothing has been finalized, "but we feel good about the prospects of a deal." Meanwhile, Iranian officials are set to meet with Pakistan's military chief, Asim Munir, in Tehran today to discuss messages exchanged between Iran and the US since earlier talks in Pakistan stalled, state media reported. The US and Iran have continued communicating through Pakistan as part of a broader diplomatic push to revive negotiations between Tehran and Washington.