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No smooth sailing through Hormuz
 
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Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are resuming faster than many analysts predicted. But new hostilities are threatening the trend, Axios' Ben Geman reports.

  • Marine traffic jumped last week before pulling back after a container ship was attacked Thursday, per multiple vessel-tracking services.

🛢️ Marine intel firm Windward reported that oil volumes leaving Hormuz reached 13.4 million barrels on June 24, and 11.7 million barrels on June 25.

  • That's by far the highest since the war started — but well below the roughly 20 million prewar number.

🤔 Reality check: The situation is tenuous, with many trackers showing a drop in shipping traffic Friday and over the weekend.

  • The U.S. struck Iranian targets on Friday and Saturday in response to Iranian actions in recent days, including what U.S. officials called an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps drone strike on a commercial oil tanker.

Analysts are also watching how many empty ships enter the waterway to load up after the recent jump in outbound tankers.

  • Landon Derentz, senior director at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center, says: "I wouldn't confuse a burst of outbound shipments with a return to normal." Go deeper.

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 What's next: The U.S. and Iranian sides plan to hold talks in Qatar this week to sort out their dispute over the strait, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2

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