Middle East War

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⏱️ New Iran deal timeline

The White House thinks it could take several days for an agreement with Iran to be approved by the country's leadership, including Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.

• Why it matters: The deal would avoid an escalation of the war and decrease pressure on the oil supply. But it's unclear whether it will lead to a lasting peace agreement that also addresses Trump's nuclear demands.

📱 President Trump said on Truth Social that he told his "representatives not to rush into a deal" to end the war.

• He said the U.S. naval blockade will "remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed."

A senior U.S. official said Iran's "slow and opaque" decision-making system could delay an agreement by another few days.

• "We are in a very good place — but there are ways in which the deal can be undermined," the official said.

👀 Behind the scenes: Trump told leaders of several Arab and other Muslim countries during a Saturday conference call that if a deal to end the Iran war is achieved, he wants their nations to sign peace agreements with Israel, per two U.S. officials with direct knowledge of the call.

• The call included the leaders of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain.

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US military says it carried out ‘self-defense’ strikes in Iran, including on missile launch sites

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. military said Monday that it carried out “self-defense” strikes in southern Iran, including on missile launch sites and boats placing mines, even as President Donald Trump said on social media that negotiations with Tehran were “proceeding nicely.”

https://apnews.com/article/iran-deal-trump-israel-abrams-01a13e9a63ece786a0a7fa4933dbf09b?

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🇮🇷 New strikes in Iran

Via Truth Social Hours after Iranian officials arrived yesterday in Doha, Qatar, for talks to end the war, the U.S. military said it carried out "self-defense" strikes in southern Iran, including on missile launch sites and boats placing mines. President Trump wrote on Truth Social on Memorial Day that negotiations with Tehran are "proceeding nicely": "It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all — Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before — And nobody wants that!" U.S. Central Command said targets included "missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines. … U.S. Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire." Get the latest.

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Iran negotiations

The US military conducted what it called "self-defense" strikes targeting Iranian missile launch sites and boats around the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. The strikes come amid a ceasefire and as Washington and Tehran are engaged in negotiations to end the war, though top US officials insist the military action will not derail the talks. Read more.

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Hormuz hangover

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Even if a U.S.-Iran deal lands, the oil market will look different from its pre-war version, Axios' Ben Geman writes. 🚢 Why it matters: The emerging deal — which would reopen the Strait of Hormuz while nuclear talks proceed — could return large numbers of barrels to the market, but it will take time. Related: U.S. Central Command disputed reports today that the Navy restarted escorting commercial vessels through the strait. What we're watching: 1. 😨 Confidence: Vessel owners and crews need to feel safe transiting the world's most important energy shipping line. It's unclear they will, said oil analyst Ben Cahill of UT Austin. 2. 🕰️ Timelines: The International Energy Agency estimates at least two to three months are needed to reestablish steady exports after mines are cleared. Persian Gulf countries need time to resume production that declined after the main export route was cut off. 3. 📜 Definitions: What "open" means for the strait is unsettled. Iran may not call it a toll, but Iranian officials are floating new fees on tankers. This could be a boon to Iran even if the fee is relatively small, said Edward Fishman, an ex-State Department aide at the Council on Foreign Relations. 4. ⚠️ Vibes and market risk: Before the crisis throttled supplies, there was debate in oil circles about whether markets were blasé about threats to infrastructure or shipping. Even once the crisis passes, watch the level of geopolitical risk premium — the market's willingness to preemptively price in risk — that elevates prices. 5. 🇺🇸 U.S. oil production: Higher prices will likely push producers to increase output, as the broader market went from oversupplied to tight. Between the lines: Restoring Gulf shipping, rebuilding crude inventories and restarting shuttered production will take months, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts said in a note today. ⛽ That delay makes the timing of steep pump price cuts more uncertain. The bottom line: The old normal is gone, and the new one is still being shaped.