World's crisis year

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Photo illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios. Photos: Anadolu, Ahmad Gharabli via Getty Images

One year ago today, the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attacks unleashed unthinkable violence in Israel, Gaza and across the Middle East. The arrival of a full-blown regional war now threatens the lives of millions more people, Axios' Barak Ravid writes. ? The big picture: One year after the largest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, the bloodshed continues with no end in sight. Israel could soon be fighting the longest war in its 76-year history. Last year's Hamas surprise attack, which killed 1,200 Israelis and led to the kidnapping of 250 more, was the worst security failure in Israel's history. Israel's retaliation led to the bloodiest war in Gaza's history — and the deadliest year for Palestinians since 1948, with more than 41,000 people killed. Today, the fighting has spilled over from Gaza to Lebanon and at least six different fronts — upending the lives of tens of millions of people and triggering the region's biggest crisis since the Arab Spring in 2010. ? What to watch: In the U.S., which continues to be Israel's most important ally and biggest supplier of arms, both Vice President Harris and former President Trump want the regional conflict to be over by Jan. 20. But whoever wins the Nov. 5 election is likely to inherit an expanding war in the Middle East. Whether it's Trump or Harris, the next president will have to make decisions on this issue on day one — and potentially even during the transition. Pictures of victims of the Oct. 7 attack are projected onto a wall in the Old City of Jerusalem last night. Photo: Ahmad Gharabli/AFP via Getty Images ? Behind the scenes: President Biden, who was personally involved in many of the war's turning points over the last year, had a clear goal after Oct. 7: prevent the crisis in Gaza from escalating to the entire region. But as the war continued, Biden's deterrence of Iran and its proxies — and his influence over Israel's decisions — waned. While the White House consistently called for de-escalation, Israel's operations in Gaza escalated, the attacks on Israel increased. The war in the region gradually expanded. State of play: 100 hostages were released in a deal last November, and several have been rescued in Israeli military operations. But at least a dozen have been murdered in Hamas captivity. Several were killed by Israeli fire. Over the past six months, Biden has spent hundreds of hours pushing for a deal that would lead to the release of the hostages, and a ceasefire that might end the war. But negotiations are almost completely frozen, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar refusing to allow concessions that would make such a deal possible. Biden built his entire strategy on the hostage and ceasefire deal — failing to develop any Plan B that could potentially halt the region's downward spiral. The hostage crisis isn't likely to be solved before a new president enters the Oval Office. Keep reading.