Polls and Survey's

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Trump’s push for Greenland reveals a political weak spot, new AP-NORC poll finds

Republicans may be willing to stick with President Donald Trump through almost anything, but his recent push to seize control of Greenland has turned off many in his own party, according to a new AP-NORC poll. The survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that about 7 in 10 U.S. adults disapprove of how Trump is handling the issue of Greenland, a semiautonomous territory of NATO ally Denmark. Read more.

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Presidential polling

Gallup, one of the country’s best known polling firms, is no longer tracking presidential approval or favorability of political figures. It marks the latest in a long line of shifts in the public opinion landscape.

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Many Democrats are still down on the Democratic Party, a new AP-NORC poll finds

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic candidates have notched a series of wins in recent special elections — but a new AP-NORC poll finds views of the Democratic Party among rank-and-file Democrats have not bounced back since President Donald Trump’s victory in 2024.

https://apnews.com/article/poll-trump-democrats-republicans-parties-abc06b4ddc9b3aca7065ead47d43c75b?

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What Americans think about Trump’s judgment on military force as Iran talks resume: new AP-NORC poll

About half of U.S. adults are “extremely” or “very” concerned that Iran’s nuclear program poses a direct threat to the United States, according to the new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. About 3 in 10 are “moderately” concerned and only about 2 in 10 are “not very” concerned or “not concerned at all.” Read more.   Americans’ sympathies in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have shifted dramatically, new poll shows WASHINGTON (AP) — American sympathies in the Middle East have shifted dramatically toward the Palestinians, according to new Gallup polling, after decades of overwhelming support for the Israelis. https://apnews.com/article/poll-gallup-americans-israel-palestinians-democrats-republicans-2614e22b0ddabe514424680b71e1802f? ps:I'm glad to hear/read that! Just another leader trying to keep his job!!

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📊 Americans aren't sold on Iran strikes, polls show

Data: YouGov poll; Chart: Axios Visuals Larger shares of Americans disapprove of the Iran war than approve of it, Axios' Avery Lotz reports from several recent polls. Nearly 60% of Americans disapprove of the decision to take military action in Iran, per a Feb. 28–March 1 CNN poll. 41% said they approve. 🐘 🫏 A party divide appears across many polls, with Republicans broadly more supportive than Democrats. A Monday YouGov survey found that nearly half of Americans overall say they strongly or somewhat disapprove of the attack, including most Democrats (78%) and independents (55%). Republicans overwhelmingly approve (76%). Fox News polling found a more even split, with half of voters saying they approve of the strikes. 84% of Republicans agree, compared to 20% of Democrats and 40% of independents. 🪖 Between the lines: Most Republicans are with Trump through thick and thin, especially on military stuff. Still, the strikes put Trump on a collision course with influential MAGA world voices who have opposed the war. But those influencer-elites are out of step with the MAGA base. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement provided to Axios: "President Trump makes decisions based on what's in the best interest of the United States and the American people." "Right now, the White House's main priority is working alongside the Pentagon and the interagencies to ensure the continued and ultimate success of the operation." Go deeper.

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📊 Poll: Hispanic voters in Texas focus on costs

A sign saying "Raise Your Voice: Vote! Noise!" at a creator event in Houston last month. Photo: Elizabeth Conley/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images Eight in 10 Hispanic voters in Texas say politicians take them for granted —and four in 10 are more likely to support candidates who communicate in Spanish, Margaret Talev writes from a new survey shared exclusively with Axios. Inflation/cost of living is the top concern for Texas Hispanics, according to the survey for TelevisaUnivision by The Harris Poll. Explore the data ... Keep reading.

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What Americans think about the war in Iran, according to recent polls

Americans are divided along party lines on U.S. military action against Iran, according to polls conducted since the war began, with most polls showing opposition is higher than support. Polls suggest that many Americans are worried the military action is making the U.S. “less safe,” even as they see Iran as a threat to U.S. security. There are also warning signs for President Donald Trump as he confronts the possibility of a prolonged conflict that could come with significant economic turmoil. Read more.

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A consensus Bill of Rights

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Watch the White House, Congress and most political campaigns, and it seems clear we're too polarized and too tribal to find common cause. Well, that's a lie, Jim and Mike write. Why it matters: In this morning's "Behind the Curtain" column, we showed how algorithms and screens hide a more normal and agreeable American public. This actually extends to many hot political debates: Most people agree on most big topics most of the time. The results are striking — and should give you hope. See if this aligns with your experience. This notional Bill of Rights synthesizes majority views from polling of U.S. adults: 🗽 1. Government should have no say in what we say, how we pray, how we protest and whom we love, provided we act legally. 79% of Americans say the government has gone too far in restricting the right to free speech. Strikingly, this view is held by 88% of Democrats and 86% of independents, showing it's not just a right-wing grievance. (NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll, October) A landmark poll of 20,338 adults by the Kettering Foundation/Gallup Democracy for All Project, published in November, found 84% believe America's racial, religious and cultural diversity is a strength. ⚖️ 2. Government should keep the border tight, and settle the status of those who've been here for years. A record-high 79% of U.S. adults consider immigration good for the country. (Gallup, June) Two-thirds of registered voters say local officials should cooperate with federal immigration authorities on deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes. (Harvard CAPS/Harris, January) But support for legal immigration hit an all-time high in the 23 years the Chicago Council on Global Affairs has asked the question (49%). And two-thirds of U.S. adults in the poll, out in October, support a path to citizenship for undocumented workers currently contributing to the economy. 🛡️ 3. Government should do its basic job of protecting the nation ... and then do less. Just 17% of Americans now say they trust the government in Washington to do what is right "just about always" (2%) or "most of the time" (15%), Pew Research Center said in December. Flash back seven decades: In 1958, when the National Election Study first asked the question, 73% of Americans trusted the federal government to do the right thing — 56 points higher than now. 💰4. Government should stop spending money we don't have, on things we can't afford. 90% of registered voters are concerned that the national debt's effect on inflation is increasing the cost of living, according to a poll out two weeks ago from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which is dedicated to increasing awareness of fiscal threats. 🎓 5. Government should stop pretending our education system isn't a national embarrassment. U.S. public satisfaction with K-12 education hit a record low last year in the 26 years Gallup has been polling on the question. 📝 6. Government should allow guns but impose sensible restrictions. 72% of Americans support requiring a person to obtain a license from a local law enforcement agency before buying a gun, according to polling last year by the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions. One-third of respondents were gun owners. 👷🏼 7. Government should start caring about American workers as much as it cares about the rich and powerful. 37% of Americans say "big business" is a bigger threat to the country's future than labor or government, tying the high in Gallup's trend. 80% of Americans see wealth inequality as a big problem. (Economist/YouGov Poll, January) ⚙️ 8. Government should stop micromanaging business. 51% of small businesses say navigating federal regulations is hurting their growth, with 69% reporting they pay more per employee to comply than their large competitors, MetLife/U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index found. Gallup found last year that 62% of Americans say the federal government has too much power. 51% think government "is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses." 🏞️ 9. Government should take its duty seriously to remind citizens that they live in a great nation. While trust in D.C. crumbles, 59% of Americans trust their state government and 65% trust their local government. (Gallup, November) 🗳️ 10. Government should prohibit elected officials from profiting from their power. The Harvard CAPS/Harris poll surveyed 11 policies President Trump discussed in last month's State of the Union address. The most popular was a stock-trading limitation for members of Congress, with 72% support. 🦾 Bonus Amendment 11. Government should smartly regulate AI and quickly prep the American workforce. A Vanderbilt Unity Poll released last week found 61% of Republicans and 56% of Democrats nationwide favor regulating AI, with agreement across all age ranges. Across parties, majorities say the government should regulate AI to ensure economic stability (61%) and public safety (68%), a Reuters/Ipsos poll found last year. 📬 Let us know what you think: finishline@axios.com. 📱 Watch a YouTube with Jim and Mike about our consensus Bill of Rights.

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💉 Axios poll: RFK's vaccine trust fall

Data: Axios/Ipsos. Chart: Axios Visuals (Margin of error: ±2.9 percentage points.) Just 6 in 10 Americans now trust the government's childhood vaccination recommendations, according to the Axios-Ipsos American Health Index, Axios' Adriel Bettelheim and Margaret Talev write. That's down from 71% when we asked the question last June — reflecting the dramatic erosion of public trust during the tenure of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Nearly 1 in 3 Americans say they personally identify with Kennedy's "Make America Healthy Again" movement. More data ...

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📊 Charted: Trump approval slide

Data: Silver Bulletin. Chart: Axios Visuals President Trump's approval rating has fallen to its lowest point of his second term — slipping to 40% as the war with Iran weighs on public opinion, according to data from Nate Silver. More numbers.

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Most Americans say US military action against Iran has gone too far, a new AP-NORC poll finds

Most Americans believe recent U.S. military action against Iran has gone too far, and many are worried about affording gasoline, according to a new AP-NORC poll. As the war launched by the U.S. and Israel continues in its fourth week, the survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research indicates that while President Donald Trump’s approval rating is holding steady, the conflict could be swiftly turning into a major political liability for his Republican administration. Read more.

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What men and women think about gender and pay, according to a new AP-NORC poll

A new AP-NORC poll finds that men and women have different views on who has the advantage when it comes to earning competitive wages. Equal pay emerged as the biggest source of concern for women in the poll — compared to getting an education, a job or a promotion — and an area where men and women are far apart in their perception of gender equity. About 3 in 10 working women say they've personally experienced wage discrimination, compared to about 1 in 10 working men. The findings come as men’s earnings are rising faster than women’s, and the gender wage gap is widening. Read more.

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📱 Poll: Super scrollers sour on democracy

Data: Charles F. Kettering Foundation and Gallup. Chart: Avery Lotz/Axios Heavy social media users are less likely to think democracy is the best form of government and more likely to stray from democratic norms, Axios' Avery Lotz writes from new polling by Gallup and the Charles F. Kettering Foundation. Among U.S. adults who don't use social media or use it for less than an hour a day, 72% and 73%, respectively, rank democracy as the best form of government. The share slips to 57% among those who spend five or more hours a day on social media. Keep reading.

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😖 Charted: Americans' record-sour mood

Data: University of Michigan. Chart: Sara Wise/Axios Across major recent surveys of self-reported well-being, Americans say they're pretty miserable. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey's preliminary reading for April — released yesterday — fell 11%, to 47.6. If those numbers hold when the full data comes out at the end of the month, it would be the lowest on record — below the previous low reading of 50 at the peak of Biden-era inflation, Axios' chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes. Other recent reports capture a souring mood: 💼 Small business optimism fell for a second consecutive quarter this week, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index. Just 28% of small-business owners said the U.S. economy is in good health — down 10 points from the previous quarter. 😞 The U.S. is 23rd in the World Happiness Report this year, down from 15th three years ago. The big picture: Three methodologically distinct surveys are all flashing the same warning. Americans aren't just anxious about inflation or the job market. They're unhappy, full stop. Explore the Michigan data.

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As AI use increases at work, many employees still avoid it, Gallup poll finds

More American workers are experimenting with artificial intelligence in their jobs, but skepticism is still widespread. New Gallup polling finds that while more employees are using AI frequently in their work, there’s been an uptick in alarm that new technologies will replace their jobs. Many workers who are not using AI say they prefer to work without it, have ethical oppositions to the technology or worry about data privacy. Read more.

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🇨🇳 Charted: America softens on China

Data: Pew. Chart: Axios Visuals Two stats from new Pew polling show the American public's stance on China is softening: The share who hold favorable views of China has nearly doubled since 2023 (charted above). Those who view China as an enemy dropped from 42% in 2024 to 28% now. Why it matters: The U.S. and China are the world's two superpowers, locked in a competition for technological dominance and global influence, Axios national security editor Dave Lawler writes. How their citizens see one another could have some bearing on that competition. ✈️ What's next: President Trump is scheduled to visit China next month. He has sought warmer relations with Xi Jinping since agreeing to a trade truce last November.

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🙏 Faith rises among Gen Z men

Data: Gallup. Chart: Axios Visuals Axios' Russell Contreras makes sense of head-turning new data: Gallup polling shows an uptick in religious fervor among young men, even as overall U.S. levels remain near historic lows. Why it matters: Gen Z still has the highest share of religiously unaffiliated adults in modern history. But small hints of a religious rebound could offer clues about the future of politics and culture wars. 📈 The poll found 42% of young men aged 18 to 29 now say religion is "very important" in their lives — up from 28% just a few years ago. The uptick reverses a long-standing gender gap: "One of the truisms in American social science has been" that women were more religious than men, Gallup senior scientist Frank Newport, an author of the report, tells Axios. Reality check: An Axios review of other recent surveys showed slight increases in reported church attendance among Gen Z men, but little to suggest they're driving a "revival" like the post–World War II religious boom. Explore the data ...

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What a new Gallup poll shows about young men’s religious revival A new Gallup poll shows more young men in the U.S. say religion is “very important” in their lives compared to young women — the first time young men have surpassed young women on this measure of religiosity going back 25 years. Gallup's latest data shows that 42% of men in the U.S. ages 18-29 said religion is very important to them, a notable increase from 28% in 2022-2023. Over the same time, young women's attachment to religion has stayed low, at about 30%.  Read more.

Why this matters: This marks the first time young men have overtaken women by a big margin on this measure, which goes back to 2000. Gallup reports aggregate findings every two years to ensure the estimates are stable.   Several decades ago, young women were much more attached to religion than young men, but that's shifted. More recently, young men and women's religiosity was roughly similar. The new increase in young men's religiosity also contrasts with the minimal change seen since 2022-2023 among older men and women.    The gender gap reversal is only happening among adults under 30, according to Gallup's data. Among adults aged 30 and older, women remain more religious than men.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Converts are finding Eastern Orthodoxy online. The church wants to help them commune face-to-face  These influencers are teaching Christianity online — and young people are listening  Young adults are waiting in line to worship at this fast-growing Atlanta church

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Trump’s approval on economy falls in AP-NORC poll, showing new warning signs for president

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump’s approval rating on the economy has slumped over the past month as the Iran war drives prices higher, according to a new AP-NORC poll, with even Republicans showing less faith in his leadership.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-approval-iran-economy-cost-of-living-poll-fff492898cc8ff34e11df90ec4837a79?

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👎 Poll watch: Everyone agrees on Congress

Data: Gallup; Chart: Sara Wise/Axios The new Gallup polling, broken out by party, is about as stark as it gets. The bottom line: Overall approval is at 10%, and disapproval is at 86%. Go deeper: See the data

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💵 Charted: Worst this century

Data: Gallup. Chart: Emily Peck/Axios Stunning stat via Axios' Emily Peck: Americans feel worse off financially than at any point in the past 25 years, according to Gallup polling out this morning. 55% of respondents said their financial situation is getting worse — the highest since 2001, topping levels seen during the pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis. This is the fifth consecutive year that more Americans say their finances are worsening rather than improving. Keep reading.

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Older Americans say it’s a good time to find a job. Younger people aren’t buying it, new poll finds

For years, younger Americans have been more optimistic about the job market than older Americans, even through the depths of the Great Recession. But in an abrupt shift, a new poll released Monday finds young people’s confidence has plummeted over the past two years — while their elders remain more upbeat.

https://apnews.com/article/global-jobs-economy-poll-youth-older-adults-efa927fc1ddfb481294178becbbf3a1b?

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👎 Polling collapse

Data: New York Times/Siena Poll; Chart: Noah Bressner / Axios Republicans have fallen so badly in congressional polling that Senate seats in three Trump +10 states are in danger of flipping this year. 🌰 Ohio: Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is running even with Sen. Jon Husted (R). 🐻 Alaska: Former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) is within the margin of error against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R). 🤠 Texas: State Rep. James Talarico (D) is polling competitively against Sen. John Cornyn (R) and Texas AG Ken Paxton (R). 🌊 Why it matters: This was supposed to be a friendly Senate cycle for Senate Majority Leader John Thune. But a D+11 environment could change the map. Republicans are down 50%–39% on the generic congressional ballot in the latest polling from N.Y. Times/Siena. Democrats are up 7.2% in the RealClearPolitics polling average of the generic ballot. The Siena poll is an outlier, but not wildly so. ‼️ The big picture: The GOP's Senate majority is in jeopardy unless the nationwide polling numbers bend back in their favor. Sen. Susan Collins (R) has a toss-up race in Maine against Graham Platner. North Carolina is slipping away with Republican Sen. Thom Tillis' retirement and former Gov. Roy Cooper in the race for Dems. This is important: Democrats are up 14 among those "almost certain" or "very likely" to vote, the N.Y. Times' Nate Cohn noted. ⏪ Flashback: The last time Republicans faced a potential wave was in 2018 — when they had the chance to challenge Democratic incumbents in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio and West Virginia. This time around they've got Georgia (Trump +2). ⛵️ The bottom line: The Democratic primary mess in Michigan is emerging as the GOP's lone bright spot. Republicans long ago united around former Rep. Mike Rogers, while Democrats are locked in a bruising three-way race among Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former public health official Abdul El-Sayed. — Justin Green

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📈 Dems open massive House lead

Data: New York Times/Siena Poll. Chart: Noah Bressner/Axios Democrats have opened one of their biggest congressional polling leads since George W. Bush was president two decades ago: The latest N.Y. Times/Siena poll has Democrats up 50%-39% on the generic congressional ballot. Why it matters: The GOP launched mid-cycle redistricting to save the House from a blue wave. Republicans fear the result if more polls land in this territory. 🗳️ Zoom in: Three very bad numbers for Republicans from the poll ... President Trump's overall approval sits at 37% — "his lowest approval rating in any Times/Siena survey in either term," the N.Y. Times' Nate Cohn notes. Just 19% of voters aged 18 to 29 approve of his job performance — a troubling sign for Republicans after Gen Z swung right in 2024. Only 20% of Hispanics approve. That's a stunning collapse from a group Trump made historic gains with last election. Go deeper: A crack in the polling floor puts Trump in new territory (NYT gift link).

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Where Trump stands with Republicans nationally, according to the latest AP-NORC poll

WASHINGTON (AP) — Republicans are unhappier with President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy than they were a few months ago, but they’re largely continuing to stand behind him as the war with Iran continues, a new AP-NORC poll finds.

https://apnews.com/article/poll-trump-republicans-economy-iran-immigration-283a726342b3b41e0b71f2b2941d8484?