Nuclear talks begin between Iran and US

[phkrause]

Iran and US envoys hold 1st negotiation over Tehran’s nuclear program, and talk face-to-face

MUSCAT, Oman (AP) — Iran and the United States will hold more negotiations next week over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program, Iranian state television reported Saturday at the end of the first round of talks between the two countries since President Donald Trump returned to the White House.

https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-nuclear-talks-oman-3aaca426accb6e450fef6395cc5de909?

[phkrause]

☢️ Scoop: Iran nuke talks moving to Rome

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

A second round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran is expected to take place in Rome on Saturday, two sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios' Barak Ravid. Why it matters: The Trump administration was satisfied with the first round of talks in Oman. The talks went according to plan and achieved their objective of shifting the format from indirect — handled through intermediaries — to direct, with officials conversing directly. The Trump administration wants that to be the format in Rome, a venue switch suggested by the U.S. side. ? Behind the scenes: The two lead negotiators, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, spoke for around 45 minutes on Saturday — longer than was revealed publicly, a source with knowledge told Axios. Keep reading.

[phkrause]

?? Trump's team Iran split

President Trump has vowed to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon — but inside his national security team, there's a divide over the best way to do it, Axios' Barak Ravid writes.

• Why it matters: This isn't a theoretical debate. Trump has dispatched negotiators to try to get a deal, and B-2 bombers and aircraft carriers for Plan B.

Trump convened his top advisers for a Situation Room meeting on Iran on Monday, including officials on both sides of the policy divide.

? Behind the scenes: One camp, unofficially led by Vice President Vance, believes a diplomatic solution is both preferable and possible and that the U.S. should be ready to make compromises in order to make it happen.

• Vance is highly involved in the Iran policy discussions, the U.S. official said.
• This camp also includes Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff — who represented the U.S. at the first round of Iran talks on Saturday — and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. It also gets outside support from MAGA influencer and Trump whisperer Tucker Carlson.
• This group is concerned that striking Iran's nuclear facilities would put U.S. soldiers in the region in harm's way when Iran strikes back. These officials also argue a strike would send oil prices skyrocketing at a sensitive time for the U.S. economy.

The other side: The other camp, which includes national security adviser Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is highly suspicious of Iran and extremely skeptical of the chances of a deal that significantly rolls back Iran's nuclear program, U.S. officials say.

• This camp believes Iran is weaker than ever — and therefore the U.S. shouldn't compromise, but insist Tehran fully dismantle its nuclear program.

[phkrause]

Iran-US talks over Tehran's nuclear program hinge on a billionaire and a seasoned diplomat

As far as biographies go, the two men in charge of the delicate negotiations between Iran and the United States over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program couldn’t be more different. Read More.

[phkrause]

Iranian minister says nuclear deal possible if US does not make ‘unrealistic demands’

Iran’s top negotiator believes reaching an agreement on its nuclear programme with the US is possible as long as Washington is realistic, as the two sides prepare to resume talks in Rome on Saturday.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/19/irans-minister-says-nuclear-deal-possible-if-us-does-not-make-unrealistic-demands?

[phkrause]

? U.S.-Iran nuclear talks underway

The scene outside the Omani ambassador's residence. Photo: Barak Ravid/Axios ROME — A second round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are underway with President Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi leading the delegations, Axios' Barak Ravid reports from Italy. Why it matters: The talks are taking place with debate still raging within the Trump administration — and between the U.S. and Israel — over whether diplomacy or military strikes are more likely to prevent Tehran from obtaining a bomb. ? For now, Trump is holding back the hawks, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and focusing on getting a deal. "I want Iran to be great and prosperous and terrific. But they can't have a nuclear weapon. And if they have a nuclear weapon, you'll all be very unhappy because your life will be in great danger," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office yesterday. ⚡ Being there: The talks started shortly before noon local time at the residence of the Omani ambassador in Rome's quiet diplomatic quarter. Dozens of reporters gathered in the narrow street in front of the Omani diplomatic compound. Keep reading.

[phkrause]

A Closed-Door Struggle

View in browser

If there’s one thing people thought they knew about Donald Trump’s second term, it was that he would take the fight to Iran. “The Iran Deal was one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into,” he declared seven years ago, when he pulled America out of the nuclear accord and reimposed crippling sanctions on the regime. Less than two years later, Trump ordered the killing of Iran’s top general, Qassem Soleimani. In return, Iran allegedly targeted former Trump officials and Trump himself for assassination. On the 2024 campaign trail, Trump and his allies argued that his “maximum pressure” approach to Iran had prevented war in the Middle East, whereas sanctions relief provided by Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden had enabled the regime to flood its proxies with cash, leading to the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel.

And yet, Trump has spent the past few months making nice with Iran. Although he has repeatedly threatened the country with military strikes, the president has made clear that he prefers to resolve differences diplomatically, and in the past month, the two sides have engaged in talks aimed at hammering out a new nuclear deal that appears similar to the original one. The approach has drawn unexpected praise from former Obama-Biden officials and alarm from many conservatives. “This new deal will preserve Iran’s latent nuclear weapons capabilities—centrifuges, scientific expertise, and unmonitored sites,” facilitating “a simple reconstitution in the future,” warned the pro-Trump Middle East analyst Michael Doran, dubbing the proposed arrangement a return to “Obamaland.”

This turnaround is the product of a struggle for control over the administration’s foreign policy that has been unfolding behind closed doors. Today, many of the big names who set the agenda for Trump’s first term—his son-in-law Jared Kushner, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, Director of Policy Planning Brian Hook, Middle East Envoy Jason Greenblatt, Israel Ambassador David Friedman—are conspicuously absent. Some have even had their security details revoked. Staffers who worked under them and elsewhere in the previous Trump administration have been kept out of the current administration; some Trump 1.0 staffers who made it in were fired.

The reason for this shake-up is simple: In 2016, Trump didn’t expect to win, wasn’t prepared to govern, and didn’t have a universe of professionals around him waiting to take power. This void allowed a small group of individuals in the president’s orbit—some from the Republican establishment and others from Trump’s personal life—to exercise outsize influence over his policy, including in the Middle East. They helped Trump make moves that upended the region, such as the Abraham Accords and the Soleimani assassination. In 2025, however, Trump entered office with a retinue of staffers divided into competing camps, each pulling the president’s policy in different directions.

These players include Middle East Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump’s personal Swiss Army knife, who has been dispatched to resolve conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran. A real-estate developer with no diplomatic experience, Witkoff nonetheless holds the key to credibility with foreign leaders: the trust of his friend, the president. Adam Boehler, the administration’s special envoy for hostage response, has also been elevated in authority. He recently negotiated directly with Hamas, a dramatic break with past U.S. policy that alarmed Israel, in an abortive attempt to free the American hostage Edan Alexander. These men operate independently, largely on the instructions of the president.

At the same time, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, and the Witkoff deputy Morgan Ortagus have represented traditional Republican foreign-policy priorities. They are deeply suspicious of the Iranian theocracy and its proxies, and inclined to amp up the pressure on them. These figures have been opposed by neo-isolationists within the administration, led by Vice President J. D. Vance, who seek American retrenchment from world affairs following decades of military misadventures overseas. Vance’s internal allies in this endeavor include Donald Trump Jr. and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. Externally, Vance has been boosted by an array of far-right influencers, including the top conservative talker Tucker Carlson, who has sought to realign America against its traditional European allies and toward Vladimir Putin’s Russia, and whose conspiratorial harangues against “warmongers” and “neocons” have shaded into coded attempts to blame Jewish actors for subverting the country against its national interest.

Publicly, the administration’s officials maintain the appearance of complete alignment on foreign policy. Privately, it is another story entirely. The Trump team’s stark divides were evident in the Signal chat that inadvertently included The Atlantic’s editor in chief, Jeffrey Goldberg, in which Vance vocally opposed Trump-ordered air strikes on Yemen’s Houthis, claiming that the group’s attacks on international shipping should be Europe’s problem. Indeed, once one understands that a subterranean struggle for influence is taking place within the Trump administration, many other odd developments begin to make more sense.

On April 14, Witkoff told Fox News that the goal of his negotiations with Iran was to compel it to cap—but not eliminate—its enrichment of nuclear material, a position in line with the old Obama-era deal. One day later, however, he backtracked on social media, writing that Iran must “eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program”—only to seemingly return to the more lenient position during this past Saturday’s talks with Iran. These fluctuations reflect fundamental differences of opinion within the White House.

The disagreements have spilled out onto Capitol Hill. Last month, when a group of Republican senators criticized Vance over his apparent reluctance to confront the Houthis, the vice president referred reporters to Donald Trump Jr., who retorted in a statement, “These seven cowardly neocons attacking JD anonymously are genuine pussies.” This bizarre deployment of the president’s son by Vance against GOP members of Congress seems somewhat less bizarre when one grasps that the two men are allied on foreign policy against the Republican establishment. The same dynamic also explains why former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has repeatedly voted against Trump’s neo-isolationist nominees.

Other fights over personnel have taken on an ideological valence. Last week, the Pentagon fired several top aides to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Subsequent reporting indicated that the three men, rather than having been removed over policy considerations, might be casualties of a leak investigation and internal rivalries in a chaotic Defense Department. (The three have denied wrongdoing.) But that didn’t stop Carlson from interviewing one of them, Dan Caldwell, a longtime friend and colleague of Hegseth’s, and dubiously insinuating that Caldwell had been fired due to a sinister “warmonger” scheme to ignite conflict with Iran.

The White House’s factional infighting might seem dysfunctional, but it is actually quite normal. Most administrations are composed of competing camps attempting to persuade the president to steer the ship of state in their preferred direction. It was the concentration of power in the hands of a small number of like-minded individuals during the first Trump administration that was unusual—and unsustainable. Once people recognized that Trump was not a fluke but a force, they enlisted in his campaign in order to gain influence and power in any future administration. Now they are cashing in, sidelining previous Trump allies, altering past Trump policies, and attempting to turn the MAGA movement into a vehicle for advancing their own ideas.

[phkrause]

☢️ Scoop: Iran's latest nuke pitch

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Photo: Tatyana Makeyeva/Pool via Getty Iran asked the U.S. about an interim nuclear deal during high-stakes talks in Rome, sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios' Barak Ravid. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told White House envoy Steve Witkoff that it might not be possible to meet President Trump's two-month deadline for a final nuclear accord, and suggested a temporary pact to let more complex negotiations continue. ⏱️ Witkoff told Araghchi he wants to focus on reaching a comprehensive deal within 60 days, but could revisit the idea of an interim deal, if necessary, closer to that deadline. Go deeper.

[phkrause]

⚡ Scoop: U.S. gave Iran nuke deal proposal

Steve Witkoff seen yesterday in Doha, Qatar. Photo: Karim Jaafar/AFP via Getty Images The Trump administration gave Iran a proposal for a nuclear deal during the fourth round of negotiations on Sunday, a U.S. official and two other sources with direct knowledge tell Axios' Barak Ravid. Why it matters: It was the first time since the nuclear talks started in early April that White House envoy Steve Witkoff presented a written proposal to the Iranians. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took the proposal back to Tehran for consultations with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, President Masoud Pezeshkian and other top officials. President Trump said Tuesday in Saudi Arabia that he'd presented "an olive branch" to the Iranians but stressed: "This is not an offer that will last forever. The time is right now for them to choose." Behind the scenes: How the proposal was ironed out.

[phkrause]

Senior Iranian lawmaker warns of 'plan B' as nuclear talks with the US falter

In the latest round of negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran, the US is pushing for zero nuclear enrichment on Iranian soil. But a Senior Iranian official tells CNN’s Fred Pleitgen Iran is "disappointed" with nuclear talks.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/24/world/video/iranian-lawmaker-nuclear-talks-plan-b-digvid

[phkrause]

☢️ Controversial offer in U.S.-Iran nuke deal

The U.S. proposed allowing Iran to continue with limited, low-level uranium enrichment as part of a new nuclear deal, Axios' Barak Ravid scoops.

• Why it matters: The proposal seems to offer a clearer path to a deal, but contradicts U.S. officials' public statements and risks backlash from hardline conservatives in Washington as well as from Israel.

?? Iran has consistently said it won't sign any deal that bans enrichment for civilian purposes — a red line that is irreconcilable with the U.S. public posture.

• White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have said publicly that the U.S. will not allow Iran to enrich uranium, and will demand the full dismantlement of Iran's nuclear facilities.

? The secret proposal shows far more flexibility on both points.

• Go deeper.

[phkrause]

? Scoop: Camp David strategy session

President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio talk to reporters in N.J. on Sunday before departing for Camp David. Photo: Nathan Howard/Reuters President Trump and his entire top foreign policy team huddled in Camp David for hours on Sunday to discuss U.S. strategy on the Iran nuclear crisis and the war in Gaza, two U.S. officials and another source with knowledge tell Axios' Barak Ravid. Why it matters: Trump's missions to reach a nuclear deal that averts war with Iran and a ceasefire and hostage deal that could end the war in Gaza have both faced recent setbacks. A senior U.S. official told Axios the president sees both crises as intertwined and part of a broader regional reality he is trying to shape. ? Behind the scenes: U.S. officials said the "retreat" in Camp David included several policy sessions. The meeting on Iran and Gaza was attended by Trump, Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, SecDef Pete Hegseth, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, special envoy Steve Witkoff, CIA director John Ratcliffe, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and other senior officials. Keep reading.

[phkrause]

? Iran nuclear tensions soar

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Rebecca Noble/Getty Images

For the first time in 20 years, the board of the UN's nuclear watchdog formally declared that Iran is in breach of its nuclear non-proliferation obligations. Iran responded by immediately vowing to establish a new uranium enrichment facility. Why it matters: Tensions are soaring in the Middle East over the possibility that Israel could strike Iran's nuclear facilities, which could lead to retaliatory missile attacks against American bases, Axios' Barak Ravid reports. The U.S. is evacuating nonessential staff from its Baghdad embassy and family members of military personnel from several bases in the Gulf. The State Department has restricted travel for U.S. government employees inside Israel. Trump told reporters last night that the U.S. personnel were being moved out of the region because it "could be a dangerous place. We'll see what happens." When asked what could bring tensions down, Trump stressed: Iran "can't have a nuclear weapon — we're not going to allow them." Keep reading.

[phkrause]

Scoop — Trump's Iran plans

Smoke billows after an explosion in central Tehran yesterday. Photo: Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images The Trump administration told several Middle Eastern allies that it doesn't plan to get actively involved in the war between Israel and Iran unless Iran targets Americans, Axios' Barak Ravid scoops. Israel has asked the Trump administration to join the war in order to eliminate Iran's nuclear program. A U.S. official told Axios on Saturday that the Trump administration was not actively considering it. ? Between the lines: President Trump demurred Monday when asked whether the U.S. could join the war. But while the U.S. is stating in public and in private that it's not getting involved, the U.S. military is taking steps to prepare for such a contingency. Aircraft carriers and strategic refueling planes are moving to the region. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a press conference on Monday that he speaks to Trump almost every day. ? State of play: Iranian state television was broadcasting live on Monday when an Israeli strike rocked the studio, with the anchor fleeing her desk amid smoke and falling rubble. The broadcast then went dark. The strike signaled a broadening of Israel's bombing campaign. The Israeli military had claimed it was only striking targets connected to Iran's nuclear and missile programs. But Israel has now issued several evacuation orders for civilians in Tehran, in areas where hundreds of thousands of people live. See the video

[phkrause]

The US and Iran have had bitter relations for decades. After the bombs, a new chapter begins For nearly a half century, the world has witnessed an enmity for the ages — the threats, the plotting, the poisonous rhetoric between the “Great Satan” of Iranian lore and the “Axis of Evil” troublemaker of the Middle East, in America’s eyes. But now comes a new chapter in U.S.-Iran relations, whether for the better or the even worse. Read more.

Why this matters: In the first blush of a ceasefire agreement, even before Israel and Iran appeared to be fully on board, Trump exulted in the achievement. “God bless Israel,” he posted on social media. “God bless Iran.” He wished blessings on the Middle East, America and the world, too. This change of tone, however fleeting, came after the intense U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear-development sites this week, Iran’s retaliatory yet restrained attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar and the tentative ceasefire brokered by President Donald Trump in the Israel-Iran war.   When it became clear that all hostilities had not immediately ceased after all, he took to swearing instead. “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f— they’re doing,” he said on camera. In that moment, Trump was especially critical of Israel, the steadfast U.S. ally, for seeming less attached to the pause in fighting than the country that has been shouting “Death to America” for generations and is accused of trying to assassinate him.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Iran’s Supreme Leader makes first public statement since ceasefire declared in Israel-Iran war   Analysis: A battered Iran faces an uncertain future after its grinding war with Israel   Middle East conflict highlights how vastly the global energy supply has changed in recent years

[phkrause]

⚡ White House plans Iran talks next week

Satellite imagery shows damage to Iran's Isfahan nuclear site after U.S. air strikes. Photo: Maxar Technologies White House envoy Steve Witkoff is planning to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo next week to restart nuclear talks, two sources familiar with the discussions tell Axios' Barak Ravid. Why it matters: The sources said a final date hasn't been set. But if it happens, it would mark the first direct talks since President Trump ordered an unprecedented military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities last month. Behind the scenes: Witkoff and Araghchi have been in direct contact during and since the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, which ended in a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, according to the sources. Omani and Qatari officials have also been involved in mediating. In the immediate aftermath of the war, the Iranians were reluctant to engage with the U.S., but that position has gradually softened. ? What to watch: A key issue in any future talks will be Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which includes 400 kilograms enriched to 60%. Israeli and U.S. officials say the material is currently "sealed off from the outside world" inside the three nuclear sites attacked during the joint strikes. Keep reading.

[phkrause]

☢️ Putin backs "zero enrichment" for Iran

Russian President Vladimir Putin has told both President Trump and Iranian officials that he supports the idea of a nuclear deal in which Iran is unable to enrich uranium, sources familiar with those discussions tell Axios' Barak Ravid.

• Why it matters: Russia has been Iran's main diplomatic backer on the nuclear issue for years. But while Moscow publicly advocates for Iran's right to enrich, Putin has taken a tougher position in private in the wake of the 12-day war between Israel and Iran.

? State of play: Israeli and U.S. strikes seriously damaged Iran's nuclear facilities but did not destroy all of Iran's highly enriched uranium. It's unclear whether any of Iran's centrifuges survived.

• Trump has made clear he wants a new nuclear deal with Iran. If negotiations take place in the coming weeks, zero uranium enrichment on Iranian soil will be one of the key U.S. demands, sources say.

Iran has long insisted that it must retain the ability to enrich under any deal.

• Read on.

[phkrause]

• 💬 Iran's foreign minister says the country is ready to resume nuclear talks with the U.S. Axios' Barak Ravid reports.

 

Trump says he believes Iran wants to make deal as he extols size of US ‘armada’

Donald Trump has said he believes Tehran wants to make a deal to head off a regional conflict, as he claimed the US “armada” near Iran was bigger than the taskforce deployed to topple Venezuela’s leader.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/30/donald-trump-iran-end-nuclear-programme-killing-protesters-face-us-military?

[phkrause]

🇮🇷 Saudi minister: Not bombing Iran would embolden regime

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Rebecca Noble/Getty Images The Iranian regime will end up stronger if President Trump doesn't follow through on his threats against the country, Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman (KBS) said in a private briefing in Washington yesterday, four sources in the room tell Axios' Barak Ravid and Zachary Basu. 🇸🇦 That's a reversal from public Saudi talking points cautioning against escalation — and from the deep concern Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) expressed to Trump three weeks ago. That warning was one reason Trump decided to delay a strike. Saudi Arabia's public posture toward U.S.-Iranian tensions has been very cautious. MBS told Iran's president this week that the kingdom wouldn't allow the U.S. to use its airspace for an attack on Iran. The Saudis said in a statement that they respect Iran's sovereignty and seek a diplomatic solution. Yet KBS was less restrained in an hour-long meeting yesterday with around 15 think-tank experts on the Middle East and representatives from five Jewish organizations. 🪖 According to the sources, he said he thought Trump would have to take military action after threatening it for weeks — but also must try to avoid regional escalation. "At this point, if this doesn't happen, it will only embolden the regime," KBS said, according to the sources in the room. Go deeper.

[phkrause]

• 🇮🇷 White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are expected to meet Friday in Istanbul to discuss a nuclear deal, Axios' Barak Ravid reports. Go deeper.

[phkrause]

💥 Trump tries gunboat diplomacy on Iran

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Rebecca Noble/Getty Images

For the third time since returning to office, President Trump is seeking a nuclear deal with Iran, Axios' Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo write. Why it matters: Trump heads into the talks planned for Friday with significant leverage: A massive military buildup in the Gulf and an Iranian regime left weaker and more isolated by massive protests. At the same time, U.S. officials are skeptical that Iran's supreme leader is willing to go anywhere close to the conditions Trump has set for a deal. While U.S. officials say the renewed effort is sincere, Trump has veered away from diplomacy and into war once before. ⚡ Behind the scenes: A senior U.S. official said Trump "really does not want to do it." In June, Trump believed Iran's nuclear activities posed a "legitimate, imminent threat," the official said. "He does not feel that way here." Three Trump advisers told Axios they think launching a military option now wouldn't be the right way to go. One said that skepticism holds for many in Trump's close orbit. 👀 What to watch: Trump is on the diplomatic path, but he might not follow it for long. A senior official from one of the mediating countries told Axios: "If Iran doesn't come to the talks on Friday with tangible things, it could find itself very quickly in a very bad situation." Keep reading.

[phkrause]

• 🇮🇷 Iran has demanded changes to the venue and format for planned nuclear talks with the U.S., two sources tell Axios' Barak Ravid. Go deeper.

Iran Talks in Oman

Representatives from the US and Iran will meet overnight in Muscat, Oman (10 am Friday local time) for rare face-to-face talks. White House envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner are expected to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, among others. US-Iran tensions have escalated in recent weeks amid Iran’s crackdown on protests last month. Senior Iranian officials estimate the death toll at 30,000 people or more within 48 hours—a pace seen in the September 1941 Nazi massacre at Babyn Yar. The US has sought to negotiate with Iran on two tracks: multilateral talks over Iran’s human rights violations, missile program, and support for militant groups, as well as bilateral nuclear negotiations. The delegations were scheduled to meet in Istanbul; however, Iran recently pushed to relocate talks to Oman and limit the scope to direct nuclear talks. The meeting comes days after alleged Iranian attempts to target a US-flagged ship and aircraft carrier.   🇮🇷 The U.S. and Iran held several hours of nuclear negotiations in Oman on Friday, and officials from both countries indicated they expect further meetings in the coming days, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.

[phkrause]

💥 Axios interview: Trump's Iran buildup

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Getty Images

President Trump told Axios' Barak Ravid yesterday he's considering sending a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East to prepare for military action if negotiations with Iran fail. Why it matters: The U.S. and Iran resumed negotiations last Friday in Oman for the first time since the 12-day war in June, but Trump has simultaneously launched a massive military buildup in the Gulf. "Either we will make a deal or we will have to do something very tough like last time," Trump told Axios. Trump said he expects the second round of U.S.–Iran talks to take place next week. The president added that "we have an armada that is heading there and another one might be going" and said he's "thinking" about sending another aircraft carrier strike group. The USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group, which includes fighter jets, Tomahawk missiles and several ships, already deployed. The U.S. had two carriers there during much of the war in Gaza. 🔭 Zoom out: Trump expressed optimism about the diplomatic path, claiming Iran "wants to make a deal very badly" and is engaging much more seriously than in previous talks because of the military threat. "Last time they didn't believe I would do it," Trump said, alluding to the June strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. "They overplayed their hand." This time the talks are "very different," he said. 🔮 What's next: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit the Oval Office this morning and is far more skeptical of a great deal. More from Barak's interview.

[phkrause]

🛢️ Trump raises pressure on Iran

President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed that the U.S. will increase economic pressure on Iran, particularly on oil sales to China, two U.S. officials briefed on the issue tell Axios' Barak Ravid.

• Why it matters: More than 80% of Iranian oil exports go to China. If China reduces its purchases, the economic pressure on Iran would increase significantly. That could change Iran's calculus and push it to make more concessions regarding its nuclear program.

Behind the scenes: U.S. officials said Netanyahu and Trump agreed in their Oval Office meeting on Wednesday about the necessary end state — an Iran without the capability to obtain nuclear weapons.

• But they disagreed about the way to get there. Netanyahu told Trump it is impossible to make a good deal with Iran, and claimed that even if a deal is signed, Iran will not abide by it, a U.S. official said.
• "We'll see if it's possible. Let's give it a shot," Trump said, according to the official.

In recent days, Trump asked his advisers Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner about the odds for reaching a deal.

• A U.S. official said Witkoff and Kushner told Trump that history shows it's difficult, if not impossible, to reach a good deal with Iran. But they also told him that so far, the Iranians are saying all the right things.

A second U.S. official thinks there's "zero chance" Iran agrees to anything the U.S. proposes, or vice versa.

• Go deeper.

[phkrause]

Second round of US-Iran nuclear talks begins today in Geneva after Iran launches second round of naval drills, the US deploys second aircraft carrier to the region (More) 

🇮🇷 Iran deal's make-or-break day

Today's meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials in Geneva could be a make-or-break moment that will signal whether the two countries are moving toward a new nuclear deal or war, Axios' Barak Ravid writes.

• Why it matters: U.S. officials said they expect Iran to arrive at the talks between Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi with tangible concessions on its nuclear program.

President Trump told reporters on Air Force One last night that he is going to be "involved indirectly" in the negotiations — the second round of talks this month.

• "They want to make a deal. I don't think they want the consequences of not making a deal."

🔭 Zoom in: While Trump said he prefers a diplomatic solution and wants to reach a deal with Iran, he has also ordered a massive military buildup in the Persian Gulf — including sending a second aircraft carrier strike group.

• Another group of 18 F-35 fighter jets, together with several tankers, arrived in the Middle East yesterday, according to open-source flight radar data.