The Economy

[phkrause]

📉 CEOs lose confidence

Data: The Conference Board and The Business Council. Chart: Emily Peck/Axios CEOs of the world's biggest companies lost confidence in the economy this month as the Iran war drags on, Axios' Emily Peck writes from a new survey of 141 Fortune Global 500 chief executives. Why it matters: Business leaders who lack confidence tend to pull back on hiring and investment, weighing down the economy. 🧮 By the numbers: CEO confidence fell 12 points since February to 47, according to the survey from The Conference Board, a nonpartisan think tank, and The Business Council, an association of CEOs. 47% of CEOs said economic conditions were worse, up from 8% at the start of the year. Only 15% said conditions were better than six months ago, down from 39% in February.

[phkrause]

💼 An economic tinderbox

Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Chart: Matt Phillips/Axios Corporate profits are taking the largest chunk of America's total income since a brief period of the early 1950s, as the slice of the pie going to worker pay has shrunk to the thinnest on record, Axios' Matt Phillips writes. Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Chart: Matt Phillips/Axios The big picture: "It's the latest milestone in a trend that became pronounced in the 2000s, then picked up speed after the pandemic," noted Wall Street Journal chief economics commentator Greg Ip (gift link). "Adjusted for inflation, hourly wages are up 3% since the end of 2019 while profits are up 50%. That, in a nutshell, explains the chasm between an ebullient stock market and anxious public."

[phkrause]

📈 Job openings rebound, but hiring cools

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios Job openings soared to their highest level in two years in April, Courtenay Brown reports from new federal data. It's a sign that employers' appetite to hire is improving — even if they aren't quite lowering the gangway for mass recruitment. By the numbers: Job openings surged by 731,000 in April, their biggest monthly gain in five years. 👩‍💻 White-collar job postings accounted for most of the surge. That's a signal that AI isn't sapping demand for traditional office workers. 📉 Yes, but: The hiring rate fell 0.3 percentage points, to 3.2%. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a note: "The hiring rate is still low, but at least companies appear to be hunting for talent again." Go deeper.

[phkrause]

💼 Career ladder's disappearing rung

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Economists are looking for clues that AI is eliminating jobs for young workers. Two new papers suggest a different culprit: remote work, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes. Why it matters: Young workers' white-collar job woes might stem from the massive, pandemic-era shift in how Americans work. Any AI-related impacts are landing on top of that upheaval. New research — separately from the New York Fed and a group of British economists — suggests employers may be shying away from inexperienced workers, believing that remote work makes training harder. The Fed economists estimate that remote work accounts for roughly 64% of the rise in youth unemployment since the pandemic.

[phkrause]

Myths vs. facts about the minimum wage

For nearly 90 years, the minimum wage has been one of the core labor standards shaping job quality for workers in the United States. Since the 1938 enactment of the federal minimum wage as a core pillar of the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA), policymakers in Congress and later in dozens of states, cities, and counties, have adopted hundreds of minimum wage policies—setting wage floors across and within industries, at varying levels of geography (national, state, and local), and applying in different ways to different groups of workers and employers. This abundance of experience across a wide range of jurisdictions and industries has provided ample opportunity to understand how minimum wage policies—and the failure to adjust them—affect workers, employers, and the economy. Debates surrounding the minimum wage have also generated consistent and pervasive myths about the policy. These are the facts:

https://www.epi.org/publication/myths-vs-facts-about-the-minimum-wage-an-faq-on-the-economics-of-increasing-wage-floors/

[phkrause]

• 💼 The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, confirming that the economy is gaining momentum despite the economic fallout from the Iran war, Axios' Courtenay Brown reports.

[phkrause]

Inflation

Inflation is expected to top 4% for the first time in three years, driven largely by a surge in oil prices tied to the war in Iran. Rising gas prices are once again predicted to push overall inflation higher, reviving concerns about similar price pressures that dominated much of 2021 and 2022. The latest forecast of an increase — as measured by the Consumer Price Index due out later this morning — comes as many consumers are still grappling with prices that remain well above pre-pandemic levels. Read more.   💸 Inflation hit its highest rate in over three years in May, as the economic fallout from the Iran war ripples through the U.S. economy. Go deeper.

[phkrause]

📉 Charted: Wage gains wiped out

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios A year's worth of inflation-adjusted wage gains vanished in just four months, leaving workers little better off than when President Trump returned to office, Axios Macro authors Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin write. After rising for much of last year, real wage growth has effectively stalled. Keep reading.

[phkrause]

FACT FOCUS: Is inflation a red state vs. blue state issue? It’s increasing no matter how you cut it

WASHINGTON (AP) — After cooling slowly in 2024 and 2025, inflation is rising again, squeezing most Americans’ budgets and making it harder to afford gas, groceries, and other necessities. Inflation reached 3.8% in April from a year earlier, the highest in three years.

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-blue-states-fact-check-9cb276119b4dcaa9e433106cc29ca3a1?

[phkrause]

The skills people still perform better than AI, according to workplace experts

Many workers fear machines will supplant them as adoption of artificial intelligence accelerates. But what if people have qualities both unmistakably human and essential to career success that AI could not easily replace them? Some workplace experts argue that with more businesses adopting AI tools, soft skills such as empathy, critical thinking and ethical decision-making are worth cultivating to help employees become indispensable. Read more.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤

Trump tried to block state AI regulations, but some states are forging ahead OpenAI hit with multistate probe into possible user harm as its IPO looms Anthropic says it has taken its latest AI models offline to comply with new export controls You can ignore AI giants like SpaceX, but your 401(k) won’t Visa plugs its payment network into ChatGPT, letting AI agents shop and pay for users

[phkrause]

Career pivot

Millions of Americans are struggling to find work in this tough job market, but healthcare is emerging as a lifeline for those willing to try something new. Nursing assistants and home health aides are an easy entry point. ps:Tough job market? Why? All the immigrants that left should have opened up many jobs!!!!! I guess that wasn't the problem we've been lead to believe??????????

[phkrause]

Economy

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged today. But for many investors, economists and Americans hoping for lower borrowing costs, the bigger focus will be on what comes next under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, who succeeded Jerome Powell. Warsh's post-meeting news conference, scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET, will be his first major opportunity to introduce himself and his approach to monetary policy. Read more.

[phkrause]

Corruption in plain sight

During the first 100 days of his administration, President Trump has consistently put the interests of billionaires and corporations over working people. This is most evident by the Trump administration already halting or dismissing nearly 90 investigations against lawbreaking corporations, according to a recent report by Public Citizen. One of the biggest beneficiaries of this is tech billionaire Elon Musk.

https://www.epi.org/blog/corruption-in-plain-sight-how-elon-musk-has-benefited-from-the-first-100-days-of-the-trump-administration/?

[phkrause]

Tough job market has many teens struggling to find summer work About one-third of 16- to 19-year-olds in the U.S. were employed last summer, federal data show, down from a peak of about 60% in the late 1970s. Read more.

What to know: Teens most commonly work in food preparation and serving jobs and sales, according to BLS data. But Jaune Little, director of recruiting services at the human resources company Insperity, says some entry-level jobs have been eliminated and teens now compete with more experienced candidates for the remaining ones.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ What full-time working moms and dads want, by the numbers   The Trump administration says it is cutting student loan interest. Here are some facts and context    U.S. filings for unemployment benefits fall to 226,000 last week as layoffs remain historically low

[phkrause]

🧐 Why Americans hate the "good" economy

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios The big-picture indicators of the U.S. economy — GDP, unemployment and so on — are doing fine while public opinion on economic conditions is at rock bottom, Axios Macro's Neil Irwin writes. The gap isn't just the result of elevated prices across the board: It's higher and more volatile prices for the specific items that dominate Americans' day-to-day living expenses. That's the early conclusion of top Democratic economic policy minds who have embarked on an effort to quantify — and develop policy responses to — the economic forces squeezing American households. The "Kitchen Table Project," led by Biden White House economic adviser Lael Brainard and former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau chief Rohit Chopra, could inform the policy agenda if Democrats win control of Congress in November or the White House in 2028. 🔬 Zoom in: Brainard tells Axios that "people are extremely worried about unexpected expenses. … It's the things that are volatile and feel out of control that stress them the most." More than half of respondents to their survey cited beef costs as the biggest driver of grocery price stress. Keep reading.

[phkrause]

💻 AI price shock

Data: Apple. Table: Courtenay Brown/Axios The enormous sums of money going into the AI race are driving up costs throughout the economy. That's now becoming increasingly apparent to ordinary Americans who might have thought that AI's impact would be primarily on their jobs, Axios' Courtenay Brown and Nathan Bomey report. 📈 Apple provided the clearest evidence yet yesterday, raising prices by as much as 25% on MacBook and iPad models — and blaming soaring memory chip costs due to AI demand. The same memory squeeze is now hitting gaming consoles. Also yesterday, Microsoft announced price increases of as much as $150 on Xbox consoles — which comes after Sony and Nintendo recently made similar moves. The bottom line: For the past few decades, consumer gadgets were one of the few areas where prices reliably fell. The AI infrastructure boom is reversing that.

[phkrause]

Inflation jumps again with gas prices running higher than in past years The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge rose to a new three-year high in May as gas prices peaked, a sign rising costs could pose political problems for President Donald Trump and his political party as midterm elections near. Read more.

What to know: Consumer prices rose 4.1% in May from a year earlier, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The increase was largely driven by more expensive gas, as well as pricier semiconductors and other computer equipment that are in high demand for the AI buildout.   Oil and gas prices have fallen substantially since Trump agreed to a peace deal with Iran earlier this month, according to AAA. But gas prices are still more than 20% above prices at this time last year.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ US economy expanded at solid 2.1% pace in January-March, government says

[phkrause]

Unauthorized immigrants and the economy

Immigration is among the most important economic and political issues and a main topic of discourse and debate among policymakers and the public. But misperceptions persist about many fundamental aspects of this crucial topic, such as:

https://www.epi.org/publication/unauthorized-immigrants/?