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13 Florida candidates file to run for U.S. Senate nomination

There are 13 Floridians vying to win the U.S. Senate seat currently occupied by Republican incumbent Rick Scott.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/04/26/13-florida-candidates-file-to-run-for-u-s-senate-nomination/?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Nevada GOP Senate Hopeful Uses Campaign Cash to Cosplay as a Cowboy

In his first campaign video, Jeff Gunter was decked out in western gear head to toe. Records show he'd just purchased them at a chain retailer.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/nevada-gop-senate-hopeful-jeff-gunter-uses-campaign-cash-to-cosplay-as-a-cowboy?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Inside Bernie's decision to run again

Sen. Bernie Sanders is not ready to step away from the national political stage without a clear successor to his progressive throne, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The question of whether anyone could fill his role as the leading progressive voice in Washington was a top consideration for Sanders, according to Faiz Shakir, a top Sanders advisoe.

Zoom in: Sanders, 82, has been the leading voice in Congress raising concerns about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the harshest critic of the Israeli government.

  • Sanders can reach 2024 voters on economic issues, which some in the Democratic Party don't communicate as effectively, Shakir argued.

Between the lines: Former Sanders staffers have made moves in recent years to work for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who many see as the obvious successor as the top voice on the left.

  • And Sanders is close to Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.), a progressive who is one of the top choices to replace him in the Senate.
  • But if Sanders were to leave, there is no "natural follow-up leader who could have the same power" as the Vermont senator, Shakir said.

Read more

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Spartz fends off Republican rivals to win contentious Indiana congressional primary

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — Two-term U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz won a contentious Republican primary to defend her seat just months after she decided to run for reelection in a campaign that focused attention on her opposition to sending aid to her native Ukraine.

https://apnews.com/article/indiana-primary-election-victoria-spartz-mike-braun-df527e7e7a37b158a260813a3c90f7b2?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Scoop: McCormick PAC's big ad buy
mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.axios.com%
Screenshot: Keystone Renewal

A super PAC supporting Republican David McCormick's Senate run in Pennsylvania is launching a $4 million TV ad buy today — its first in one of the most-watched contests of the 2024 campaign, Axios' Alex Thompson writes.

  • Why it matters: Pennsylvania's race between McCormick and Democratic incumbent Bob Casey could determine which party controls the Senate next year.

Keystone Renewal PAC's first ad focuses on McCormick's time at West Point and his Bronze Star from the Gulf War.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Ohio money gusher
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mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgraphics.axios.co
Data: AdImpact; Chart: Axios Visuals

More cash has been spent on reserving ad space for the Ohio Senate race this fall than for the presidential race, according to data from AdImpact.

Why it matters: The battle between Republican Bernie Moreno and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) points to record-breaking spending this cycle.

  • A whopping $2.5 billion has been laid out on political spending across broadcast, cable, radio, digital, satellite and CTV for the 2024 race, up from $1.7 billion in 2020.
  • $725 million has been spent to pre-book ad space between Sept. 1 and Election Day on Nov. 5.

Read more

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Democrats unleash on Hogan
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This is Larry Hogan
 

Larry Hogan campaigns yesterday in Davidsonville, Md. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

 

Democrats don't plan on letting former Gov. Larry Hogan stick to his moderate persona in the Maryland Senate race.

Why it matters: Hogan spent nearly a decade in the state honing his brand as a Republican figure who was independent of the national party and emerged as a top Trump critic.

  • "Larry Hogan, his BFF Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump's Republican party want to flip this seat," Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks said in her victory speech last night.
  • "Who do you want to control the Senate? Or women's reproductive rights?" Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), who is retiring and leaving the seat open, told Axios today.

Hogan has opened his Senate campaign boosting his standing as a politician who will buck both parties.

  • One of the first ads of his campaign is titled "Both to Blame," slamming "open border Democrats" and "status quo Republicans" for the crisis at the southern border.

Read more

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? There's still time to vote
 
Illustration of an
 

Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios

 

Early voting is underway for the runoff elections from March's Democratic and Republican primaries.

State of play: Party nominees for elected positions ranging from county chair to U.S. representative are still up for grabs.

  • Some runoff results, such as in the Dallas County sheriff race, will decide the seat because there is no opponent from the other party.

Here are a few notable races…

32nd Congressional District: The winner of the Republican primary runoff will face Democrat Julie Johnson in a bid to replace U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, who is running for U.S. Senate against Republican incumbent Ted Cruz.

Dallas County sheriff: Incumbent Marian Brown faces former sheriff Lupe Valdez to be the county's top law enforcement officer.

  • Valdez was first elected as sheriff in 2004 and stepped down to run for governor in 2018. Brown, her third-in-command was appointed — and then elected.

Texas House 33: Incumbent Justin Holland faces former Trump campaign spokesperson Katrina Pierson in the Republican runoff.

  • Holland has drawn ire from Gov. Greg Abbott after voting against school vouchers. The Rockwall incumbent trailed Pierson by just 1 point in March.

Texas House 61: Incumbent Frederick Frazier and Keresa Richardson face off in the Republican primary for the McKinney state representative seat. Frazier trailed Richardson in March by nearly 6 percentage points.

  • Since then, Frazier has been released early from community supervision after pleading no contest to two misdemeanor charges of impersonating a public servant. The charges were then dismissed.

Before you go: Go to votetexas.org for more information. For early voting and election day voting locations:

What's next: Early voting continues through 7pm Friday. Election day is Tuesday.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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GOP candidate for NC governor blasts public spending as his family nonprofit rakes in taxpayer funds

WASHINGTON (AP) — In his bid to become North Carolina’s first Black governor, Republican Mark Robinson assails government safety net spending as a “plantation of welfare and victimhood” that has mired generations of Black people in “dependency” and poverty.

https://apnews.com/article/robinson-government-spending-balanced-nutrition-388251303ac98c6edbf52e5b3c43d554?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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️ Scoop: MoveOn jumps into Md. Senate race
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Angela Alsobrooks, carrying an umbrella, smiles at a voter.
 

Angela Alsobrooks. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

 

MoveOn, a top progressive organization, is backing Maryland Democrat Angela Alsobrooks in a bid to protect a blue Senate seat, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The GOP candidate, former Gov. Larry Hogan, has made the race surprisingly competitive. What once seemed a safe seat is now drawing national Democratic groups to help defend it.

The big picture: An Alsobrooks victory in November is critical for Democrats. The party has several vulnerable incumbents and a slim Senate majority.

Read more

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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US Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas fights off challenge from gun-rights activist in GOP runoff

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas narrowly won his primary Tuesday against a gun-rights activist who pushed the border congressman into a bruising runoff that threatened to unseat a U.S. House incumbent.

https://apnews.com/article/texas-republican-primary-runoff-gonzales-herrera-b4dc6b497208b820e834cdd1f82ccc65?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Joe Manchin leaves the Democratic Party, files as independent

Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia officially left the Democratic Party on Friday and registered as an independent.

https://www.axios.com/2024/05/31/joe-manchin-leaves-democratic-party-independent?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Dems Biden-proof their campaigns

Some Democrats in key congressional races are focusing their campaigns on abortion rights, MAGA extremism, inflation, the border and local issues — anything except President Biden.

  • Why it matters: Biden may get a bump in support because of Trump's felony conviction, but several Democratic lawmakers tell Axios the president's middling poll numbers to date have made distinguishing themselves from him a priority.
  • There is "more distancing now as his numbers continue to tank," said one House Democrat seeking re-election in a competitive district, adding that they are "pretty much washing my hands of his campaign."
  • Another House Democrat said there is "always an element where you run your own race," but "now it's even more pronounced."

Democratic incumbents, candidates and operatives told Axios many Democrats in tight congressional races are maintaining their independence from Biden without publicly rejecting him.

? Zoom in: Some swing-district Democrats are latching onto opportunities to display a break from Biden on policy — particularly by pushing for stricter border security.

  • It's a strategy that many Democrats credit for Rep. Tom Suozzi's (D-N.Y.) special election victory in February.
  • 15 vulnerable House Democrats sent Biden a letter last month urging him to take action on the border. Michigan Democratic candidate Curtis Hertel sent a similar letter.

Other Democrats are welcoming Biden to their districts and expressing hope his poll numbers improve.

  • I think Joe Biden has a heck of a case to make for another term," said Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-Penn.), vowing to "help Joe Biden in western Pennsylvania."

"Joe Biden created 15 million jobs, capped the price of insulin at $35 and made health care more affordable than ever," said Biden campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz.

  • "That record of historic results for the American people is what the president and Democrats across the country will be running on."

Go deeper.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? GOP hopefuls' abortion balancing act

Republican Dave Reichert, a candidate for Washington governor, has joined a growing number of moderate Republicans distancing themselves from hardline views on abortion.

  • In a video ad that will go on TV this summer, Reichert says that if elected in November he won't change Washington State's law that allows access to the procedure up to fetal viability, typically 24–26 weeks of pregnancy.
  • "I do not believe any politician regardless of personal belief has the right to make that decision for any woman," Reichert says in the video.

It's the latest example of how some GOP candidates want to avoid being associated with conservative Republicans' push for state abortion restrictions — or even bans — after the Supreme Court's rejection of Roe v. Wade in 2022.

  • Since then, Washington State has become a destination for women who are seeking the procedure but live in states with strict abortion laws.
  • Reichert, a former congressman, is running against Bob Ferguson (D) to replace Gov. Jay Inslee (D) in Washington, where there hasn't been a Republican governor in more than four decades.

Reichert isn't the only GOP candidate creating space between themselves and the national GOP on abortion, particularly in states with strong Democratic or independent voter bases.

  • Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H), running for governor in New Hampshire, also has said she wouldn't change her state's abortion law, which protects access up to six months of pregnancy.

Ayotte did not respond to a request to comment.

Reality check: Democrats and abortion-rights advocates have called out Reichert and Ayotte, citing their past votes and actions to question their commitment to ensuring abortion rights.

Read more.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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New survey shows U.S. Senate race in Florida is getting closer

The Florida Democratic Party is extolling a new public opinion survey that shows Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, their likely candidate to challenge U.S. Sen. Rick Scott this fall, just 2 percentage points behind the Republican incumbent.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/06/12/new-survey-shows-u-s-senate-race-in-florida-is-getting-closer/?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Trump endorses uninterested Hogan
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Larry Hogan arrives at the polling place at Davidsonville Elementary School on May 14 in Davidsonville, Md. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
 

Larry Hogan in Davidsonville. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

 

Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) said on WTOP yesterday that "he didn't seek" former President Trump's endorsement in his Senate race and that he has "no interest in it."

Why it matters: Hogan said that he was "surprised" by Trump's endorsement last week, especially after the ex-president's campaign had slammed Hogan after he said to "respect the verdict" in Trump's New York criminal trial.

  • "I didn't seek it, I didn't want to have it, and I have no interest in it. It's not something we're going to be promoting, that's for sure," he said.
  • Hogan has been a vocal critic of the former president and is vying to become the first GOP candidate in over 30 years to represent Maryland in the U.S. Senate.

State of play: Trump endorsed Hogan last week on Fox News.

  • "I'd like to see him win. I think he has a good chance to win," Trump said.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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? Manchin not running for governor — for now
 
Joe Manchin, center in blue suit, walks with staffers outside the U.S. Capitol.
 

Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.V.), center, with staffers outside the U.S. Capitol on June 5. Photo: Kent Nishimura/Getty Images

 

️ Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) was presented this week with private polling that showed he could win the governor's race as an independent.

  • But the 76-year-old is still leaning against facing voters one last time, according to people familiar with the matter, Hans Nichols reports.

Manchin formally left the Democratic Party last month, opening a path for a potential independent campaign for either governor or senator. Speculation has run rampant.

  • ? But the internal polling, which gave him a 1-point lead over Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) in a possible matchup in the governor's race, also indicated that Manchin had high negative ratings.
  • Any potential campaign, while short, would be nasty, and victory would be far from assured.

? Manchin has until Aug. 1 to make a final decision on whether to mount an unaffiliated campaign for either the Senate or the governor's mansion.

  • ? On Thursday, he's scheduled to appear at a fundraiser with Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stephen Williams, the mayor of Huntington, the state's second biggest city.

Read more.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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In the race to replace Sen. Romney, Utah weighs a Trump loyalist and a climate-focused congressman

OREM, Utah (AP) — As he led a crowd of picnicking families in the “YMCA” dance, Trent Staggs gleefully waved a “Utah for Trump” flag at a recent campaign rally — one more not-so-subtle reminder to voters that he is backed by the former president in the race to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney.

https://apnews.com/article/utah-senate-republican-primary-romney-curtis-a7cff9b7438b57b325538124d2fbdf57?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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️ "No one is buying" Rep. Good's election claim

? Rep. Bob Good's (R-Va.) efforts to sow doubts about the results of his too-close-to-call GOP primary are being met with eye rolls from many of his House Republican colleagues.

  • ? The House Freedom Caucus chair is tapping into a strain of election denialism common in Donald Trump's Republican Party — but isn't getting the widespread GOP support Trump enjoyed when he claimed the 2020 election was "rigged."
  • "No one is buying it, but all understand this is one of the several stages of electoral grief," said one House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

? Driving the news: Good has said he plans to challenge the result if the race is called for his opponent, state Sen. John McGuire, and has demanded a "do-over" in one county.

  • ?️ He trailed McGuire by just 368 votes out of more than 62,000 cast in the primary, with mail-in votes to be counted.
  • Good said on Steve Bannon's podcast today that he'll try to block certification of the results as he seeks an investigation.

Good was backed by several of his fellow House GOP hardliners, but McGuire had the support of Trump and more than a half-dozen of Good's GOP colleagues.

  • ? Good earned Trump's disdain by initially endorsing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the GOP presidential primaries.
  • ? He also annoyed many House GOP colleagues by joining with several other conservatives in voting to oust former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

? What they're saying: "[Of] course Bob is claiming election fraud. He is grasping at straws to help save his political career," said Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.), who endorsed McGuire.

  • Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) noting that Good has focused his claims on Lynchburg despite winning there, said: "What a loser."

Good's campaign said in a statement that "the people of our district are reaching out to our campaign demanding that we pursue a recount. Our donors, our volunteers, and our supporters expect it."

? Former Rep. Denver Riggleman, a Virginia Republican-turned-independent who lost to Good in 2020, added a little salt by noting that McGuire and Good have both echoed Trump's claims about the 2020 election.

  • "I don't find it surprising that an election between an election denier and an election denier would end with one of them denying the election was fair based on conspiracy theories," Riggleman said.

Read more

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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Rep. Jamaal Bowman faces tough challenge from George Latimer in Democratic primary in NY suburbs

Rep. Jamaal Bowman, one of the most liberal members of Congress, will try to fight off a strong Democratic primary challenge Tuesday from moderate county executive George Latimer in a New York race that has put a spotlight on the party’s divides over the Israel-Hamas war.

https://apnews.com/article/bowman-latimer-democratic-primary-congress-new-york-f751616f7f69df439a6080dc6c23e385?

Boebert faces first election Tuesday since switching districts and the vaping scandal

DENVER (AP) — U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert was facing Republican primary voters Tuesday after fleeing a tough reelection race to run in a more GOP-leaning district, harried by accusations of carpetbagging and still bruised by an embarrassing video.

https://apnews.com/article/colorado-primary-election-2024-boebert-republican-5f14372b55c0da9e1f872ba590af56d5?

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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⚠️ Another "Squad" alarm
By
 
photo of Cori Bush
 

Rep. Cori Bush. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

 

? Rep. Jamaal Bowman's (D-N.Y.) brutal primary loss yesterday is setting off sirens for another embattled progressive Democrat in the group known as the "Squad": Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.).

?️ Driving the news: Hours after Bowman's 17-point loss to Westchester County executive George Latimer, pro-Israel group Democratic Majority for Israel released internal polling, obtained by Politico, showing Bush in a statistical dead heat with rival Wesley Bell, a local prosecutor.

  • That's a stark reversal from Bush's 17-point lead in an internal DMFI poll in January, and could point to a highly competitive race.
  • Independent polling on the race is scant, but one survey in February — after news of Bush's investigations broke — showed Bell leading by 22 points.
  • Besides AIPAC, Bell has been endorsed by DMFI and the Jewish Democrats, a progressive pro-Israel group that also backed Latimer.

Unlike Bowman, Bush hasn't been endorsed by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) or his top deputies, Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) and Democratic Caucus chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.).

  • Those endorsements are forthcoming, two House Democratic leadership sources told Axios. One said they'll happen "eventually."

? Jeffries has made supporting incumbents a cornerstone of his leadership strategy. His leadership trio endorsed Squad Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Summer Lee (D-Pa.), who have faced less serious primary threats.

?What we're hearing: Several House Democrats, including several progressives, told Axios they aren't surprised leadership has waited this long to endorse Bush, describing her as an isolated member of the Democratic caucus.

  • "She doesn't have the kind of relationships even that Bowman had ... so I can imagine that it's been difficult for folks in leadership to figure out how to be supportive of her," one progressive said.

"Congresswoman Bush is an unwavering and effective leader on behalf of the people she serves in Missouri's First District," Bush's campaign told Axios in a statement.

Read more

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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?‍♂️ Dem candidates run away from Biden
 
Animated illustration of Biden surrounded by silhouetted individuals who suddenly advance towards the viewer, while Biden gets smaller as he recedes into the background.
 

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

 

Democrats in competitive congressional races are starting to distance themselves from President Biden after his halting debate performance.

  • It had been a careful balancing act for many Democrats before the debate, given Biden's shaky poll numbers.
  • ? Now swing-district lawmakers and candidates are urgently trying to compartmentalize their races and downplay the guy at the top of the Democratic ticket.

? What we're hearing: One swing-district House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity, described frantic efforts to avoid a visit from the president or even First Lady Jill Biden.

  • "I don't ever want to see him here," the lawmaker said of Biden, adding that "every single donor — and I'm only calling major donors — is furious and wants him to step aside."
  • A senior House Democrat, also speaking on the condition of anonymity, relayed discussions with swing-district members who are "freaking out" about Biden's impact on their races.

?️ The big picture: Distancing from an unpopular president is a well-worn strategy in congressional races, but Biden's unique political vulnerabilities as the oldest president in history — topped by that jarring debate Thursday — have given the dynamic a new dimension.

  • Congressional Democrats generally have polled ahead of Biden this cycle, but fears are mounting that his unpopularity will be an inescapable drag on their races.
  • A House Democrat in a modestly Democratic-leaning district told Axios: "Trump could expand [the electoral map] to a point where I'm in a 1- or 2-point race."

? Some members openly acknowledged Biden's poor performance, but many swing-district House Democrats dodged questions about it at the Capitol on Friday. One even reportedly appeared to fake a phone call.

  • Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska), who represents the most Republican-leaning district of any Democrat, told Axios she is "not thinking about anybody's race but my own."
  • Missy Cotter Smasal, a Democratic House candidate in Virginia, turned heads by pulling out of a Democratic Party event scheduled for the morning after the debate that was meant to counter-program a Trump rally in the district later that day.

? What they're saying: Biden campaign official Jen O'Malley Dillon, in a Saturday memo aimed at easing Democrats' anxiety, said "the Beltway class is counting Joe Biden out," but that "data in the battleground states … tells a different story."

  • O'Malley Dillon pointed to polls that suggest the tight presidential contest remains largely unchanged after the debate.

Read more.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
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?️ Two weeks later, incumbent loses
 
A table showing the latest Virginia-05 Republican primary results. McGuire is leading with 50.3% of the votes and Good is in second with 49.7%.
Data: AP. Table: Axios Visuals

The Virginia State Board of Elections certified the apparent narrow defeat of Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), one of the most conservative members of Congress, to a challenger endorsed by former President Trump in a June 18 primary.

  • Good, who chairs the House Freedom Caucus, has said he'll seek a recount now that his opponent, state Sen. John McGuire, has been declared winner of the primary in Virginia's 5th Congressional District, where Lynchburg is the largest city, AP reports.

? By the numbers: The margin of victory was roughly 375 votes out of nearly 63,000 ballots cast, or 0.6 percentage points.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • 2 weeks later...
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Senate GOP bullish on Larry Hogan

Republican senators were shown new internal polling that has former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan besting Democrat Angela Alsobrooks in the U.S. Senate race, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Behind closed doors, Republicans are drooling over seats that once would have been considered far out of reach.

Driving the news: During their weekly lunch on Tuesday, Senate Republicans saw new data showing Hogan up 47% to 41% over Alsobrooks, according to sources in the room.

Reality check: Independent polling has not been so promising for Republicans. One survey from last month had Alsobrooks up 8% over Hogan.

  • Maryland remains a deeply blue state that hasn't elected a Republican senator since 1980.

The other side: "This race will determine who gets the 51st vote in the U.S. Senate," Alsobrooks campaign spokesperson Gina Ford told Axios.

  • "Angela's focus is making sure we keep the United States Senate in Democratic hands and fighting for Maryland values — women's freedoms, economic opportunities, safe communities, and more," Ford added.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2
  • 2 weeks later...
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Cruz pours millions into Spanish-language ads

Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is launching a $4.4 million campaign targeting Hispanic voters in Texas — with a majority going to Spanish-language advertising, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Cruz is worried his Senate seat and other GOP elected officials aren't secure in Texas. He called the state "a battlefield" at the Republican National Convention.

  • The two-term senator said he's "worried that we're all overconfident."

The latest: His opponent, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred of Dallas, announced Wednesday he's launching a campaign to help Democrats get elected in down-ballot races statewide.

  • The Texas Offense is a collaboration between Allred's campaign and the Texas Democratic Party to set up phone banks, go block-walking and host voter registration drives. The effort launches Sunday in Houston, 100 days from Election Day.

The big picture: Cruz's new effort is the largest investment he's ever made into Hispanic advertising as the GOP continues to court the country's largest non-white voting bloc.

Zoom in: The Cruz campaign's $4.4 million investment includes broadcast and digital ads, as well as billboards, text messages and phone calls targeting Hispanic Texans. The effort started this month and will run through Nov. 5.

  • Bilingual texts and phone calls will target swingy Rio Grande Valley.

Zoom out: Latino voters have historically been more aligned with Democrats — though the population has never been monolithic.

  • A recent Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll revealed that Latinos lean toward supporting former President Trump because of the opportunity he brings to rebrand the GOP around "upward mobility."

What they're saying: Cruz cited Democratic fundraising efforts when sharing his concerns about Texas.

  • "Everyone says look, there's no way you can lose. It's Texas. You're Republican. It's a re-election," Cruz said at the convention. "Look, they are coming after us."

Flashback: Cruz narrowly defeated Beto O'Rourke in his 2018 re-election, winning by 2.6 percentage points. It was a historically expensive race with both campaigns collectively raising more than $100 million.

  • Exit polls showed O'Rourke won 64% of the Latino vote in Texas, and he overwhelmingly won in counties bordering Mexico.

phkrause

When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; But when a wicked man rules, the people groan. Proverbs 29;2

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