Other Races for 2023/24

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2024 spending gusher

By Stef W. Kight

Data: Adimpact; Chart: Axios Visuals Note: Totals include ad money spent and ad reservations already made through Election Day. Since the start of the year, there have been $723 million worth of campaign ad buys for just three Senate races: in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana, according to AdImpact data. Why it matters: A fierce battle for control of the Senate is fueling the expected record-breaking ad spending this election cycle. Zoom in: Democrats have long held a fundraising advantage over Republicans, which is helping them play defense in nine competitive Senate races. Ohio is the only Senate race in which Republicans have been spending more than Democrats on campaign ads and reservations, largely due to it having one of the only highly competitive Senate GOP primaries this year. Republican Bernie Moreno won the Ohio primary and will face Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown in November. In Pennsylvania and Montana, the showdowns between Sen. Bob Casey (D) and Dave McCormick — and Sen. Jon Tester (D) and Tim Sheehy — come in second and third for ad spending and booking for both parties, so far. Go deeper

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? California's hot new battleground

FRESNO, Calif. — Two Central California races for U.S. House seats are suddenly getting increased attention from the national parties as hot new battlegrounds for Latino voters.

? Why it matters: The fights for the seats held by Republican Reps. David Valadao and John Duarte reflect Democrats' push to take over two majority-Latino districts that have never been represented by anyone of Mexican or Central American descent.

• ? Both parties are pouring money into the races after surprisingly close contests for the seats in 2022.

Zoom in: Democrats and Republicans alike are trying to figure out the emerging voting trends in Central California's agricultural belt, as both parties seek to appeal to the region's growing numbers of Latino voters — many of them young adults.

• Voters in Valadao's district, which is mostly between Bakersfield and Fresno, backed Biden over Trump by 13 percentage points in 2020. But they've elected Republicans to Congress and local mayorships.
• Valadao is facing a rematch with Democrat Rudy Salas, a former state lawmaker who lost to Valadao by just 3,000 votes in 2022.

Duarte is in a rematch for the House seat in his district, which is mostly west and north of Fresno.

• He faces former state lawmaker Adam Gray, whom he edged out by less than 600 votes in 2022.

?️ The big picture: Central California was the site of some of the most dramatic moments of the Mexican American Civil Rights and Chicano movements.

• Many Latinos there say Democrats have taken them for granted for decades, and some have turned to voting for Republicans.

Go deeper

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Mucarsel-Powell seizes on Rick Scott’s low approval numbers in new poll

Florida Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell wasted no time in asserting that a new poll released Tuesday shows that GOP incumbent Rick Scott is vulnerable to losing his race for re-election in November.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/08/13/mucarsel-powell-seizes-on-rick-scotts-low-approval-numbers-in-new-poll/?

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? Axios House Chicago: That 2008 feeling

A Democratic presidential candidate hasn't won North Carolina since former President Obama in 2008. But Gov. Roy Cooper is certain that'll happen again in November.

• "I have a 2008 feeling about this," Cooper told Axios' Sophia Cai at an Axios House event during the DNC yesterday.
• "We're going to be the wide receiver this year, and we're going to dance in the end zone," Cooper said.

Why it matters: Every four years, North Carolina Democrats are adamant that they can recreate Obama's first presidential win, and every year since then they've been wrong, Axios Raleigh's Lucille Sherman writes.

• Election after election, Cooper has won statewide contests — from attorney general to governor — in years when the state's voters also elected Republicans like Trump to federal office. Go deeper.

? More highlights:

?️ Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) predicted that women will "win this election" for Harris and congressional Democrats.

• "We're looking at women consolidating around this country like we've not seen in the past." Go deeper.

? Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) — at 27, the youngest member of Congress — called housing a priority for young voters. Go deeper.

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Ansari wins the Democratic nomination in Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District after recount

Yassamin Ansari, a former Phoenix City Council member, clinched the Democratic nomination for an open congressional district in Arizona, defeating her opponent by 39 votes after the tight race triggered a recount in a state that’s expected to be pivotal in November’s general election. Read More.

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Shock-and-awe hits Montana

Data: AdImpact, U.S. Census Bureau; Note: Voting-age population from 2022 census data; Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios Montanans are expected to cast the priciest Senate votes in history this year. For Schumer, those uber-expensive votes will most likely decide his majority. Why it matters: There's only so much money campaigns can spend on ads before the airwaves are oversaturated — and Montana is getting there, campaign sources tell us. Democrats are pacing ahead in ad spending in the race, but recent polling has Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) trailing Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. Tester got on a plane to Montana today, but he'll be back in D.C. for another two workweeks. The high-stakes race was moved from "toss-up" to "lean Republican" by Cook Political Report today. However, DSCC Chair Gary Peters (D-Mich.) isn't sweating the polls. "Jon Tester is very good at retail politics," Peters told us. — Stef Kight and Stephen Neukam   ? GOP solidifies Senate path   Data: AdImpact, U.S. Census Bureau. Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios Democrats' already brutal Senate map took another hit yesterday: The Cook Political Report moved Montana from "toss-up" to "lean R." The state, where Sen. Jon Tester (D) is running for re-election against Republican Tim Sheehy, is a must-win for Democrats to keep control of the chamber. Why it matters: "Republicans are now an even heavier favorite to win back control of the Senate, regardless of the result at the top of the ticket," Cook Political Report's Jessica Taylor wrote. ? On top of that, Republicans are suddenly eyeing a new sleeper Senate race that Axios Sneak Peek told you about last night: the open seat in Maryland, which Cook rates as "likely D." Democrats are flooding Maryland with ad spending, suggesting they're now worried about one of the country's bluest states, Axios' Hans Nichols, Stef Kight and Stephen Neukam report. Backers of Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks have nearly tripled TV broadcast and digital ad buys this month compared to August. ? Her opponent, former Gov. Larry Hogan (R), got a big endorsement yesterday — from Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a Democrat-turned-independent. Keep reading.

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?️ Senate could make history

This fall, two Black women — Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland and Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware — could be elected to the U.S. Senate and serve at the same time.

• Why it matters: There hasn't been more than a single Black woman in the Senate since it first convened more than 200 years ago in 1789.

There are currently more men named John or Jon in the Senate than there have ever been Black women, Roll Call notes.

? What to watch: Blunt Rochester is almost assured to defeat the Republican candidate after Tuesday's uncontested primary for the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Tom Carper, AP reports.

• But the race in Maryland between Alsobrooks and Republican Larry Hogan, the popular former governor, is expected to be tight to the finish.

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A secretive group recruited far-right candidates in key US House races. It could help Democrats

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Joe Wiederien was an unlikely candidate to challenge a Republican congressman in one of the nation’s most competitive House districts.

https://apnews.com/article/patriots-run-project-congress-candidates-trump-democrats-republicans-election-d29b438f46589bd7ecced80ac64e93a4?

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? Mitch and Chuck's final bets

Data: AdImpact; Note: Includes video ad spending and reservations by campaigns and outside groups; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals Republicans are going all-in on Ohio this month, while Democrats are giving the Arizona race a major boost. Compared to August, Republicans are set to spend 2.4 times more on video ads this month to back Bernie Moreno's bid for Senate against Brown, according to AdImpact. Democrats have also more than doubled their ad spending in support of Ruben Gallego (D) in Arizona in his race against Kari Lake (R) — who has repeatedly cast doubt on the 2020 election results. The bottom line: Either seat flipping to a Republican would likely end Schumer's Senate majority. — Stef Kight and Hans Nichols

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? Sleeper race watch

We told you last week to watch the Maryland Senate race. Now look at this new poll that shows GOP former Gov. Larry Hogan defying a nationwide trend.

• Why it matters: "In most Emerson state polling, the ticket-splitting has benefited the Democratic statewide candidate — in Maryland, it benefits the Republican," said Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling.

Dems are still favored: Hogan trails Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks by 7 percentage points in The Hill/DC News Now/Emerson College poll out today.

• But 15% of Harris voters in the deep blue state say they'll vote for Hogan.

The bottom line: "Angela is not as well known in Maryland, so we have to get her to be better known," Peters said today.

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Republicans are trying a new approach to abortion in the race for Congress

WASHINGTON (AP) — In the most contested races for control of the U.S. House, many Republican candidates are speaking up about women’s rights to abortion access and reproductive care in new and surprising ways, a deliberate shift for a GOP blindsided by some political ramifications of the post-Roe v. Wade era.

https://apnews.com/article/abortion-reproductive-rights-harris-trump-congress-bf0da946328ab06f122a99d696c04774?

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? Scoop: Jeffries’ Trump-district cash dump

A super PAC closely tied to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is pouring cash into two Trump districts held by Republicans, we have learned. House Majority PAC is reserving $1.1 million for ads in Iowa's 1st District. The seat is held by Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who will face Democratic former state House Rep. Christina Bohannan. The district voted for Trump by more than three percentage points in 2020. The PAC is also putting $400,000 into Wisconsin's 3rd District. Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden is running against Democratic small-business owner Rebecca Cooke in a district that went for Trump by six points in 2020. Why it matters: It's the latest sign House Democrats are bullish about their chances of unseating GOP incumbents with Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket. — Andrew Solender ? Schumer floods the battlegrounds   Chart: Axios Visuals, Data Source: AdImpact The top battlegrounds for Senate Democrats — especially Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana — have an extraordinary amount of upcoming spending from Schumer's super PAC. The big picture: Senate Majority PAC and its affiliates have reserved nearly $255 million in ads across eight of the most competitive states between Sept. 1 and Election Day. A source familiar with the reservations said most were placed in March, which means Schumer got cheaper rates than if he did so late in the cycle. — Stephen Neukam

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North Carolina GOP governor nominee vows to keep running after report on racial and sexual comments North Carolina Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson vowed on Thursday to remain in the race despite a CNN report that he posted strongly worded racial and sexual comments on an online message board, saying he won’t be forced out by “salacious tabloid lies.” Read more.

Why this matters: The CNN report describes a series of racial and sexual comments Robinson posted on the message board of a pornography website more than a decade ago. CNN reported that Robinson, who would be North Carolina’s first Black governor, attacked civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. in searing terms and once referred to himself as a “black NAZI.” The Associated Press has not independently confirmed that Robinson wrote and posted the messages.    Robinson has a history of inflammatory comments. His campaign struggles could hurt former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the battleground state’s 16 electoral votes.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Trump vows to be ‘best friend’ to Jewish Americans, as allegations of ally’s antisemitism surface   Georgia election rule changes by Trump allies raise fear of chaos in November   Ohio sheriff condemned for saying people with Harris yard signs should have their addresses recorded

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Political scandal

 

Mark Robinson, the controversial and Trump-backed Republican nominee for governor of North Carolina, made a series of inflammatory comments on a pornography website more than a decade ago, in which he referred to himself as a "black NAZI!" and expressed support for reinstating slavery, a CNN KFile investigation found. Robinson listed his full name on his profile, as well as an email address he used on numerous websites across the internet for decades. Robinson denied making the lewd comments and vowed to stay in the race. The scandal could impact the presidential race: former President Donald Trump won the Tar Heel state in 2020 by about 74,000 votes out of some 5.4 million cast, and Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign and Democrats are making an aggressive play to flip the state.

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? Trump's N.C. alarm

Former President Trump's campaign is alarmed that Republican nominee for governor Mark Robinson's political baggage will be a drag on Trump's prospects in North Carolina, Axios' Sophia Cai and Lucille Sherman write.

• Why it matters: North Carolina is a must-win for Trump. A poor showing in the state, which has voted Republican in 10 of the last 11 presidential contests, could signify a losing night on Nov. 5.

The Trump campaign distanced itself from Robinson yesterday as CNN reported that Robinson referred to himself as a "black NAZI!" and a "perv" online and expressed support for reinstating slavery.

• Trump has — until now — lavished praise on Robinson, once praising him as "Martin Luther King on steroids" and musing that Robinson could one day be president.
• A midnight deadline for Robinson to exit the governor's race with no movement.

? The big picture: Team Trump's concerns began earlier than this week and were more deeply rooted. The latest revelations were just the last straw.

• RNC Chair Michael Whatley has previously acknowledged that polls showed Robinson running behind Trump in North Carolina — a sign that Robinson might undermine votes for Trump.

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Never-ending N.C. scandals

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

North Carolina — one of the presidential race's most hotly contested states — has been plagued for more than a decade by a stream of jaw-dropping political scandals, Axios' Zachary Basu reports. Why it matters: Even in an era of sex scandals, real and imagined ballot fraud and fierce partisan feuds, North Carolinians couldn't script a more outlandish news cycle than the one delivered this week by Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the Trump-backed GOP nominee for governor. A CNN investigation found that Robinson called himself a "black NAZI" on an online porn forum, where he also defended slavery, bragged about "peeping" on women showering, and posted extremely graphic content from 2008 to 2012. Even before the new revelations about his online behavior, Robinson had a history of offensive comments — including quoting Adolf Hitler, ridiculing school-shooting survivors and endorsing political violence. ?️ The big picture: North Carolina's modern streak of political sex scandals began with former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.), the 2008 presidential candidate who impregnated his mistress — then tried to cover it up. In 2011, Edwards was indicted on charges of using campaign funds to conceal the affair. He eventually walked free after a mistrial. In 2020, Democrat Cal Cunningham narrowly lost his race for a U.S. Senate seat after admitting to an affair in the final weeks before the election. In 2022, former Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) lost his primaryafter infuriating his GOP colleagues by making wild claims about cocaine-fueled orgies in D.C. ? Between the lines: The power dynamics in North Carolina — a purple state dominated by Republicans because of partisan gerrymandering — make it prone to political stunners: In 2023, Mark Meadows, a former North Carolina congressman who was the last White House chief of staff under President Trump, was indicted in Georgia on charges of trying to overturn the 2020 election. He also was indicted in Arizona. In 2020, then-Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) stepped down as chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee after the FBI seized his phone as part of an investigation into insider trading. He never faced charges. ? What's next: Trump, who endorsed Robinson for governor and once referred to him as "Martin Luther King on steroids," will hold a rally in Wilmington, N.C., today. Robinson won't be there.

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What to know about Mark Robinson, the embattled Republican nominee for North Carolina governor

Republican Mark Robinson’s campaign for governor in North Carolina has been rocked by a CNN report that he posted racist and explicit messages on a pornography web site message board more than a decade ago. Some in his party fear the allegations could threaten Donald Trump’s standing in a state critical to winning the presidency in November.

https://apnews.com/article/mark-robinson-north-carolina-governor-trump-e5f7e3740c518883eefd16fd04f8533d?

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? What Chuck's reading: Montana real-talk

 

Here's a triple-threat of quotes that stick with you, from a new set of weekend profiles about the Montana Senate race.

1. "They were the party of the people that took showers at the end of the day, not the beginning of the day ... That's changed," former Democratic state lawmaker Brad Hamlett told the N.Y. Times on why his party has declined in relevance in Montana.
2. "Oh, I wanted to slap Trump," likely Trump voter Bernadetta WanglerBailey told the Wall Street Journal after the former president insulted Sen. Jon Tester's (D-Mont.) weight.
3. At a rally with Planned Parenthood, Tester called the overturn of Roe v Wade "bull baloney," the WSJ reports.

Why it matters: The battle for Tester's — and Chuck Schumer's majority — is coming down to whether the "dirt farmer" from Big Sandy can outrun his party one last time.

• Tester is the only Senate Democrat not to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris for president.
• "That's for the people of Montana to decide on," Tester toldCNN when asked if Harris is too liberal.

The race is now "likely Republican," with polling trending in favor of GOP nominee Tim Sheehy.

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Trayon White and the Ward 8 election

 

Voters in Ward 8 go to the polls in November amid a scandal surrounding Council member Trayon White, who's running for another term.

Why it matters: White's campaign has vowed he will stay in the race while he faces a bribery charge from federal prosecutors and an independent investigation from a special D.C. Council committee.

State of play: Before the bribery charge in August, White was widely expected to win re-election as the Democratic nominee.

• Unless he steps aside, he remains the favorite. An attempt to draft write-in candidates for the election quickly fizzled.
• Some potential contenders are more likely to pounce if he is removed from office and there is a special election.

Republican nominee Nate Derenge is the only name on the ballot challenging White in Ward 8.

• Since White's arrest, Derenge's mantra on social media: "Not a bribe-taker."
• At a recent forum, he was asked if his platform would "propel gentrification or slow it down." He responded: "My plan would increase homeownership," and said that he wants the city to sell public property to residents at a discount.

Meanwhile, White has not commented publicly about his court case. At a brief court appearance this month, the judge set another hearing for November. A trial may not begin until spring or summer 2025.

• Council members voted last week to authorize spending $400,000 for outside law firm Latham & Watkins to delve into ethics allegations surrounding White. The recreation affairs committee he chairs was also dissolved, weakening his power as a lawmaker.

What's ahead: Investigation findings are expected in mid-December, after which the council could go as far as voting to expel White from office.

Zoom out: Three other council members are up for re-election this year. Brooke Pinto (Ward 2), Janeese Lewis George (Ward 4) and Robert White (at-large) are running unopposed.

• In Ward 7, the Democratic nominee, Wendell Felder, is widely favored to fill the seat of retiring Council member Vince Gray.
• A major ballot initiative also aims to bring ranked-choice voting and open primaries to independent voters.

Next Monday, the D.C. Board of Elections plans to begin sending mail ballots to all registered voters.

• Mail ballot drop boxes open on Oct. 11. Election Day is Nov. 5.

 

Several Mark Robinson campaign staffers quit as fallout over online posts continues

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — Several top staffers in North Carolina Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s campaign for governor have quit their posts, marking more fallout from a CNN report outlining evidence that he made disturbing posts on a pornography website’s message board more than a decade ago. 

https://apnews.com/article/north-carolina-governor-mark-robinson-5fa5e739329bbabbc7cc0c9ed286ed23?

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? Cash floods Maryland Senate race

 

Serious super PAC cash is flying around in deep blue Maryland, whose Senate race gives McConnell's successor as GOP leader a distant shot at a possible 53rd seat next year. 

Why it matters: The super PAC Maryland's Future has been silent all year, but as of today, the group has booked $18.3 million worth of ads in the state to bolster former Gov. Larry Hogan.

• They're set to spend nearly $3 million a week between now and the week of Oct. 22, according to AdImpact.
• Hogan supporter Matt McDaniel is involved in the PAC, sources familiar tell Axios.
• Billionaire financier Ken Griffin, a major GOP donor, has given $10 million to the PAC. 

Between the lines: Public polling has repeatedly shown Prince George's County executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) up by solid margins over Hogan.

• Republicans have touted internal numbers behind closed doors, showing the race a lot closer, Axios has learned.
• Democrats significantly upped their spending in September versus August.

The other side: "Mitch McConnell is obsessed with flipping Maryland red and taking back the Senate majority for Republicans," Alsobrooks senior adviser Connor Lounsbury told Axios.

• "That's why these Republican megadonors are flooding the airwaves here in Maryland."

— Stef Kight and Hans Nichols

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? Scoop: Dems ready Florida offensive

Democratic leaders are telling their party's biggest donors that keeping Montana's Senate seat blue is a real challenge. However, they are planning to go on offense in Florida to retain their majority, we have learned.

• Florida and Texas "are real and we hope to get resources into those states," DSCC chair Sen. Gary Peters told us today.

Why it matters: Without Montana, the math for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to keep his job gets very difficult.

• But Democrats are signaling they want to expand the playing field and be in a position to steal Republican seats in states like Florida. Yes, it's still red, but former President Trump isn't expected to win by double digits.
• They're also eyeing Texas, where a recent poll has Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) up by three points against Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

?NEWS: At a donor retreat over the weekend in Amelia Island, Florida, Peters and DSCC officials shared their view of the Senate landscape.

• Officials acknowledged Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is down in the polls, but party strategists still see a path for him to defy the odds and win, like Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) did in 2020.
• The intrigue: Republicans held their donor retreat just up the coast in Sea Island, Georgia, where the NRSC explained why they are eyeing a 52-seat majority.

What we're hearing: Democrats are contemplating a late blitz in the Florida Senate race, where GOP Sen. Rick Scott has a two-point lead over former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in the latest public poll.

• While air time hasn't been officially booked, Democratic sources tell us they expect the DSCC to make a splash in Florida in the coming weeks.

The bottom line: From Labor Day to Election Day, Democrats have spent or reserved some $5.6 million in advertising in Florida, according to AdImpact.

• Over the same period, Republicans are at $4.4 million, but Scott's campaign likes to buy week to week, meaning it could pump more money into the race if it feels it's warranted.

— Hans Nichols and Stephen Neukam

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? Sleeper race: Nebraska Senate

The Nebraska Senate race is no longer "solid R," Cook Political Report (paywalled) declared today after a flood of new spending paired with shockingly tight polls in the Cornhusker state.

• Why it matters: The shift to "likely R" gives Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer a third long-shot reason — along with Texas and Florida — to hope he can save his majority. It would all depend on which party Nebraska independent candidate Dan Osborn would caucus with.

The bottom line: [W]e remain very skeptical about Osborn's path to 50%," Cook's Jessica Taylor writes. Democrats aren't running a candidate in the race against GOP incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer.

• "But the surge in GOP money in what should be a sleepy contest and the polling trend line make it clear this is no longer a 'solid' race."

Chuck's long recess

Data: Senate.gov; Chart: Axios Visuals For the second cycle in a row, Schumer has ensured his incumbents have plenty of time to campaign for their re-election. Zoom out: In 2020, then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) kept senators in town until late October to vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett. That gave his incumbents just eight days between the last Senate vote and Election Day, according to an Axios review. Four of his members went down to defeat. — Hans Nichols and Stef Kight

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Alexandria's likely first Black woman mayor

For the first time, Alexandrians are poised to see a Black woman voted in as their mayor this Election Day.

State of the race: Alyia Gaskins, who was elected to Alexandria's city council in 2021, won 60% of the vote in the June Democratic primary.

• She'll almost definitely take office: There's no Republican challenger.
• Gaskins would succeed mayor Justin Wilson, who didn't seek re-election and has endorsed her.

? Zoom in: Gaskins' platform emphasizes embracing change while also listening to residents.

• Context: Citywide disputes about urban growth have left some Alexandrians frustrated over what they've seen as a lack of transparent communication from officials.

One of Gaskins' priorities: Diversifying Alexandria's tax base via development — a hot topic after the death of the deal to move the Wizards and Capitals arena to Potomac Yard.

• Though Gaskins saw potential in the deal, she didn't think it did enough to support transit or affordable housing, reported Alexandria Living Magazine. She panned it only hours before Alexandria backed out.
• But she supports developing Potomac Yard into a bustling mixed-use venue and has said build-out will happen during the next mayor's term.

? One flashpoint: Housing. Gaskins supported the controversial move to end single-family-only zoning in Alexandria last year, and the urbanist group YIMBYS of Northern Virginia supported her bid for mayor.

• Gaskins says she'd work to protect tenant rights, stop displacement and help locals become homeowners.

By the numbers: Alexandria's Black or African American population share declined from 1990 to 2020, from 21.5% to 19.6%, per Census data in a city report.

Who she is: Gaskins was raised by a single mother in a low-income Pittsburgh household.

• In addition to her council job, Gaskins is a senior program officer at Melville Charitable Trust, a foundation working to end homelessness.
• She has a background in public health and urban planning and lives with her husband, two children and a beagle in Alexandria's West End.

What she's saying: "Little girls who look just like me or look like my daughter Ellie will have representation that they've never seen before," Gaskins told WAMU.

• "And I hope that it inspires them to know that their voice matters, that they have something to give to our community, and if they see a problem, they can step in and fix it."

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Dems' Hail Mary

Data: Cook Political Report. (The sitting senators from Maine and Vermont are independents who caucus with Democrats.) Map: Axios Visuals Democrats are pouring money into long-shot races in red states in a Hail Mary effort to keep their Senate majority, Axios' Noah Bressner writes. Why it matters: Dems are doomed if they don't win every single one of the closest races in the country (mapped above) or make up for losses with a shock win elsewhere. ? Senate Democrats' campaign arm said yesterday it's planning to spend millions advertising in Texas and Florida — two solidly red states with incumbent GOP senators. In Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz is ahead of congressman and former NFL player Colin Allred by 3 points, according to a FiveThirtyEight average. That's closer than many strategists had expected. In Florida, Sen. Rick Scott has just a two-point lead over former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in the latest public poll. Then there's Nebraska, where an independent candidate, Dan Osborn, is running neck-and-neck with GOP Sen. Deb Fischer. The Cook Political Report says Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is the incumbent most likely to lose. That alone would be enough to give Republicans a one-seat majority. Democrats are also defending seats in Ohio and Michigan — both rates as toss-ups. Even if Democrats perform exceptionally well — if they win every toss-up and either keep Montana or offset its loss with a pickup in Texas or Florida — that's still only enough for a 50-50 Senate, with a Vice President Walz as a tie-breaker. If he's not the vice president, Dems are out of luck. ? Reality check: Once it becomes clear in the next few days that GOP committees and super PACS are going to pour money into Michigan and Pennsylvania, Dems likely will have to reallocate cash away from Texas and Florida. In what has been an unusually close race in bright-blue Maryland, Democrat Angela Alsobrooks pulled ahead of Republican Larry Hogan, with an 11-point lead among likely voters in a new Washington Post-University of Maryland poll. But she'll require more party money, cross-pressuring Dem funders. Go deeper.

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Mayor's race gets big buck spender

By Andrew Keatts

Photo illustration: Axios Visuals. Photo: Courtesy of the Turner Campaign and Daniel Knighton/Getty Images..

The financial picture in the San Diego mayoral race may have just been upended. Follow the money: Local attorney Steven Richter on Sept. 12 donated $1 million to the conservative Lincoln Club of San Diego's political action committee, according to a disclosure posted Thursday afternoon. Voice of San Diego reported it would be used against Mayor Todd Gloria's re-election bid. Why it matters: Richter's donation would bring financial parity to a mayoral race in which Gloria enjoyed a massive advantage against first-time candidate Larry Turner. Gloria's campaign has spent about $250,000 this year, and has just over $340,000 in the bank. Turner has raised less than $80,000. Between the lines: Mike Turk, a developer and chair of the Lincoln Club PAC, told Axios it was premature to say the money would go to hurting Gloria and boosting Turner, saying only that it would go to "the club's priorities." But several sources familiar with the situation confirmed Voice's reporting that all or most of it would go to the mayoral race. The club has already endorsed Turner, but it has not formed a specific committee for the race. The intrigue: Turk and his wife each made maximum campaign donations to Gloria earlier this month. "He's always been kind and supportive," Turk, who just had a housing project in Ocean Beach rejected by the planning commission, said of Gloria. "He told me I had a good project and he couldn't understand why they turned it down." Zoom in: Richter has a slim history as a donor. In June, he and his wife each donated the maximum-allowed $1,350 to Turner. In the 2020 mayoral campaign, Richter made three donations totaling $1,100 to former Democratic Councilmember Barbara Bry when she ran against Gloria for mayor. Catch up quick: The Lincoln Club is a conservative, pro-business organization that is active in local politics. It currently sponsors an independent committee opposing County Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer's re-election bid. The other side: Jen Tierney, Gloria's campaign consultant, said she is confident the $1 million donation will be matched in spending by their campaign, the Democratic Party and others "who care about keeping city government out of the hands of the far right." The rules of committee spending