Congress: The Senate & The House

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?️ Senate's do-or-die moment

Senate Majority Leader John Thune is about to make GOP holdouts decide if they're really willing to torpedo President Trump's signature legislative agenda ahead of his July 4 deadline.

• Why it matters: Each hard-fought deal at this point risks blowing up another. But leaders are ready to force holdouts' hands and get this thing done, Axios' Stef Kight reports.

Zoom in: The Senate wants to start voting on the "big, beautiful bill" this afternoon.

• As of yesterday evening, the Senate parliamentarian was still making rulings.

? What to watch: There are lingering concerns about Medicaid.

• Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told us he did not see any substantial changes to Medicaid that would alter his analysis of the impact on his state. Asked about a vote today, he said, "It doesn't matter to me, if the baseline doesn't change, I'm a no."

There also is a growing possibility of floor fights — with senators seeking to strike unpopular parts of the bill via amendments.

• Keep reading ... Full text of bill.

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Senate Republicans advance Trump’s tax and spending cuts bill after dramatic late-night vote

Senate Republicans narrowly cleared a key procedural step as they race to advance President Donald Trump’s package of tax breaks, spending cuts and bolstered deportation funds by his July Fourth deadline. The tally, 51-49, came after a tumultuous night with Vice President JD Vance at the Capitol to break a potential tie. Tense scenes played out in the chamber as voting came to a standstill, dragging for more than three hours as holdout senators huddled for negotiations, and took private meetings off the floor. Read more.

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Sen. Thom Tillis announces he’s not seeking reelection, a day after voting against Trump’s agenda bill

Republican Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina announced Sunday he is not seeking reelection next year, a day after he was one of only two Republicans who voted against advancing President Donald Trump’s sweeping agenda bill.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/29/politics/thom-tillis-not-seeking-reelection?

ps:Good for him! I would've run in the next election anyway!! If all these chickens would stand together there voters would see that they can stand up for them!!!!!

Megabill Advances in Senate

Senate Republicans voted 51-49 to open debate on President Donald Trump's tax and spending bill late Saturday night. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) called for the 940-page bill to be read aloud in its entirety—a process that took roughly 16 hours before debate could begin. A vote on the bill is expected as early as today following a vote-a-rama with potentially dozens of amendments up for consideration. Trump hopes to sign the bill by July 4.   Two Republicans—Sens. Rand Paul (KY) and Thom Tillis (NC)—defected in the procedural vote Saturday, Paul over concerns about the bill's impact on the country's debt limit and Tillis over changes to Medicaid placing more of the cost burden on states. Other changes to Medicaid include a new work requirement. Tillis announced yesterday after the procedural vote he will not seek reelection.   A nonpartisan analysis estimates the Senate bill will cut more than $1T from federal spending on Medicaid over 10 years, with 11.8 million fewer Americans projected to have health insurance. Overall, the bill is estimated to add $3.3T to the federal budget deficit over 10 years. Explore the US' $1.4T deficit here.

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? House is handed even bigger bill

Chart: The New York Times The Senate reconciliation package being debated this week would add $3.3 trillion in budget deficits over the next 10 years, Axios' Justin Green writes from an estimate by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Why it matters: That's more than the $2.8 trillion in estimated deficits in the version the House passed last month. If the Senate passes the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," it would need to return to the House. Between the lines: "Republicans in the House had sought to limit the size of the tax cut by necessitating that its cost not be more than $2.5 trillion larger than the total spending reductions," the N.Y. Times notes. "The Senate plan would miss that benchmark, angering some conservatives in the House, where nearly every Republican would have to support the bill for it to pass." Republicans pushed back against the CBO's math. White House economists say the bill would reduce deficits, although that's an outlier forecast compared to other models. Changes to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act in the Senate version would result in nearly 12 million more uninsured people by 2034, versus 10.8 million more people for the House bill, per CBO. Explore CBO's data ... Go deeper: What's in the megabill.

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House GOP pleads for last-minute changes

While senators slog through their vote-a-rama, House Republicans are frantically trying to squeeze some final changes into the Senate's "big, beautiful bill," Axios' Kate Santaliz and Justin Green report.

• The Senate is trying to jam the House to accept its version, with a final floor vote expected tonight. There isn't time for a House-Senate conference before President Trump's July 4 deadline.
• But House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) opened the door last week to blowing past that deadline, saying some Senate provisions could force the House to make revisions.

? "If there are major modifications that we can't accept, then we would go back to the drawing board, fix some of that and send it back over," he told reporters last week.

• The Senate can use a "wrap-around amendment" at the end of the vote-a-rama to add any changes to the bill.

? Zoom in: Johnson held a call Monday with Republicans concerned about the Senate's Medicaid cuts, Axios has confirmed.

• House spending hawks are also pushing the Senate for much deeper spending cuts.
• Elon Musk is trying to whip up last-minute opposition among conservatives, saying there's only one party in charge, the "PORKY PIG PARTY."

⚡️ The bottom line: Johnson can only afford to lose three votes if all House Democrats are present. And far more than three Republicans are threatening to vote "no."

• But this is President Trump's sweeping domestic policy bill, and members are wary of being the vote to torpedo the president's legislative agenda.
• They've already watched Trump and his allies go after Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) for voting against the bill last month.

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> Senate debates amendments to President Donald Trump's domestic policy bill in hourslong process known as vote-a-rama (More) | See previous write-up (More)

 

?️ Moderates flee Congress

Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios

Congress has gotten so miserable that the traditional "I'm sad to leave" has now become "not a hard choice" to retire, Axios' Justin Green writes. Why it matters: Exhausted lawmakers are choosing retirement over bipartisan dealmaking that their own parties clearly don't want. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) announced his retirement on Sunday by saying: "I haven't exactly been excited about running for another term. It's not a hard choice, and I will not be seeking re-election." Tillis capped off his retirement day by savaging the "big, beautiful bill" for its cuts to Medicaid and renewable energy tax credits. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said yesterday he won't run again. Bacon is one of just three House Republicans who won in congressional districts won by Vice President Harris in 2024. ? Zoom out: Sens. Mitt Romney, Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema chose to retire in 2024, citing the difficulty of getting bipartisan deals done. Keep reading. ?️ '26 scoop: Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is leaning toward a Senate run, Axios' Hans Nichols and Stephen Neukam report. Why it matters: The field is essentially frozen until Cooper and Lara Trump, the president's daughter-in-law, decide if they want to be their party's nominees. Keep reading.

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✂️ Massive safety net cuts

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The megabill slashes food and health benefits for the poorest Americans, while giving tax cuts to higher earners — blowing a hole in the nation's safety net, Axios' Emily Peck writes. Why it matters: Experts say the cuts could unleash a tidal wave of pain — overcrowded emergency rooms, an increase in chronic health care issues, more medical debt, and more folks going hungry. If the massive bill is signed into law, it'd be the biggest cut to the social safety net in decades, as The Washington Post noted. ? Zoom in: The bill is on track to cut 20% of spending on food stamps — also known as SNAP — with more than 2 million losing benefits, according to an estimate from the Congressional Budget Office provided to Senate Democrats. Cuts to Medicaid could lead to nearly 12 million people losing health insurance, according to the CBO. Changes to the Affordable Care Act could lead to losses for millions more. Others would face higher healthcare costs. Between the lines: Many of the losses in Medicaid and SNAP coverage are the result of new work requirements. Opponents of the bill say they're actually red tape mazes that typically lead to people losing benefits, even those who are working. The White House and Congressional Republicans say work requirements are a common-sense way to reduce waste, fraud and abuse. Keep reading ... What's in the bill (updated with Senate changes + latest Congressional Budget Office analysis).

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Senate Republicans seek support for Trump’s big bill in overnight session The Senate is slogging through a tense overnight session that has dragged into Tuesday, with Republican leaders buying time as they search for ways to secure support for President Donald Trump’s big bill while fending off proposed amendments, mostly from Democrats trying to defeat the package. It’s a pivotal moment for the Republicans, who have control of Congress and are racing to wrap up work with just days to go before Trump’s holiday deadline Friday. Read more.

What to know: Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota is reaching for a last-minute agreement between those in his party worried about the bill’s reductions to Medicaid and his most conservative flank, which wants even steeper cuts. At the same time House Speaker Mike Johnson has signaled more potential problems ahead, warning the Senate package could run into trouble when it is sent back to the House for a final round of voting.   The Republican leaders have no room to spare, with narrow majorities in both chambers. Thune can lose no more than three Republican senators, and already two — Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who warns people will lose access to Medicaid health care, and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, who opposes raising the debt limit — have indicated opposition.   Attention quickly turned to key senators Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, who have also raised concerns about health care cuts, but also a loose coalition of four conservative Republican senators pushing for even steeper reductions.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ What’s in the latest version of Trump’s big bill moving through the Senate   How Trump’s big bill could leave states scrambling to cover federal funding cuts   A Georgia town that solidly backed Trump could fall victim to his tax bill’s green energy cuts   US Capitol Police arrest 38 people protesting the Republican bill   In stepping aside, Sen. Thom Tillis goes the way of other Republicans who have challenged Trump   US Rep. Dusty Johnson announces he’s entering race to become South Dakota governor   Supreme Court throws out appellate rulings in favor of transgender people in 4 states   Supreme Court to decide whether shutting down Michigan pipeline is a state or federal fight   Federal judge seeks clarity on whether birthright citizenship order means babies could be deported   Bush, Obama — and singer Bono — fault Trump’s gutting of USAID on agency’s last day   EPA employees put names to ‘declaration of dissent’ over agency moves under Trump   NOAA delays the cutoff of key satellite data for hurricane forecasting   Military requesting to pull 200 troops back from California protest duty   More than 300 charged in $14.6 billion health care fraud schemes takedown, Justice Department says   US brings charges in North Korean remote worker scheme that officials say funds weapons program   Voters favored casting early and mail ballots in last year’s presidential election, report shows   Who’s calling? A reporter, and it’s often President Donald Trump answering   Trump vents online about service provider after conference call marred by glitch

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Senate GOP passes Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’ after scramble to win over holdouts, setting up high-stakes House fight

Senate Republicans narrowly approved President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending cuts package Tuesday after a dayslong grind to secure the support of key holdouts.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/01/politics/senate-vote-trump-agenda-bill?

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Fresh GOP revolt over megabill

Screenshot: Senate TV via AP House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is facing an explosion of internal anger over the Senate's changes to President Trump's "big, beautiful bill," Axios' Andrew Solender and Kate Santaliz report. The Senate passed the sweeping budget bill 51-50 today, after almost 24 hours of debate and amendments. Three GOP senators — Rand Paul (Ky.), Thom Tillis (N.C.) and Susan Collins (Maine) — voted no. Johnson has just days to pass the bill before Republicans' July 4 deadline (that's Friday!) — which will require flipping dozens of "no" votes and overcoming numerous procedural hurdles. House Speaker Mike Johnson arrives at the Capitol today. Photo: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images ? "Our bill has been completely changed. ... It's a non-starter," Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) bemoaned to reporters today. One House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Axios there are "well over 20" GOP lawmakers threatening to vote against the bill. ? Zoom in: Right-wing House Republicans are upset that the Senate bill is projected to add more to the deficit than the House version would. "They're backing away from the spending cuts, the spending restraint. They're backing away from the reforms that we think makes the math work," Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said in a post on X. Keep reading. Inside the bill: "A List of Nearly Everything in the Senate G.O.P. Bill, and How Much It Would Cost or Save," by N.Y. Times Upshot (gift link).

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Megabill Returns to the House

The US Senate narrowly passed President Donald Trump’s tax and domestic policy bill yesterday. The final tally was 51-50, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote. The revised, 940-page document heads to the House for consideration.   Three Republicans joined the upper chamber's 47 Democrats to reject the package: Sens. Rand Paul (KY), Thom Tillis (NC), and Susan Collins (ME)—Paul over the added debt ($3.3T by 2035), and Tillis and Collins over Medicaid cuts (over $1T by 2035). Out of a record-breaking 45 amendments considered over 27 hours, senators passed a catch-all amendment boosting rural hospitals’ funding and phasing out federal subsidies for wind and solar energy. See what's in the bill—and how much it would cost or save—here.   The bill’s passage reignited tensions between Trump and former ally Elon Musk. Musk suggested he will fund primary challengers to the bill’s supporters and launch a third party. Trump suggested he would cut subsidies to Tesla and signaled interest in deporting him (Musk was born in South Africa but is a naturalized US citizen).

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?️ Thune's big bill rattles House Republicans

Senate Majority Leader John Thune pressed Republicans over the last 48 hours to go big or go home on the "big, beautiful bill." But over the next 24 hours, he'll learn if he broke the House's spirit in the process, Axios' Hans Nichols writes.

• Why it matters: The Senate's spending cuts are deeper, the tax cuts are longer and the debt ceiling is steeper.

Thune (R-S.D.) lost three of his own members on his way to a 51-50 win, and he has left House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) with a "non-starter," Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) told reporters.

• One GOP lawmaker told Axios' Andrew Solender that Johnson is short "well over 20" votes.
• In all, the tax and spending cuts in the Senate amount to $3.3 trillion in deficit spending, compared to $2.8 trillion in the House, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

?️ The big picture: It was an aggressive and risky move for a new majority leader, and it wasn't the light touch House leaders wanted.

• "Failure is not an option," Thune himself declared outside the West Wing just a month ago.
• But failure is a real possibility today, with Johnson pronouncing himself "not happy with what the Senate did to our product."

Keep reading: How Thune got the votes.

• The tally: GOP senators voting "nay" were Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.), Sen. Thom Tillis (N.C.) and Sen. Susan Collins (Maine). All Ds/independents were against. Vice President Vance broke the 50-50 tie.

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Senate votes 99-1 to remove AI moratorium from megabill

A moratorium on state-based artificial intelligence laws was struck from the “Big Beautiful Bill” Monday night in a 99-1 vote in the U.S. Senate, after getting less and less popular with state and federal lawmakers, state officials and advocacy groups since it was introduced in May.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2025/07/01/repub/senate-votes-99-1-to-remove-ai-moratorium-from-megabill/?

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?️ House holding pattern

Screenshot: C-SPAN What should have been a simple procedural vote on President Trump's "big, beautiful bill" has stretched for more than two hours, with no clear end in sight, due to firm opposition from some corners of the House GOP. The vote began at 2:08 p.m. ET, per C-SPAN. It's still open. ⌛️ State of play: An hour into the vote, Republicans were told to head back to their offices and sit tight while more meetings occur, Axios' Kate Santaliz and Andrew Solender report. Lawmakers in both parties were told they would have at least an hour before they were needed back on the floor. ? Why it matters: House Republican leaders are working furiously to pass the sweeping reconciliation bill before their stated July 4 deadline. GOP deficit hawks have been meeting off the House floor since returning from a meeting at the White House. Go deeper.

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?️ Speaker's war of attrition

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said early this morning that he believes he has the votes to get President Trump's "big, beautiful bill" across the finish line this morning, "right when everyone is waking up to have their coffee," Axios' Andrew Solender and Kate Santaliz report from the Capitol.

• Why it matters: Johnson is racing to meet Republicans' self-imposed deadline to pass the marquee tax and spending bill, which they hope will get to the president's desk by tomorrow — July 4th.

Republicans broke the record for the longest House vote, holding open a procedural vote for 7 hours, 24 minutes as they tried to cajole GOP holdouts.

• Johnson continued to huddle with holdouts off the House floor past midnight. Trump has been working the phones in coordination with Johnson, the speaker told Fox News' Sean Hannity.
• "There's no cracking of skulls," Johnson said. "This is part of the process. We're tying up loose ends."

Keep reading.

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House Republicans are pushing Trump’s big bill to the brink of passage House Republicans are preparing to vote on President Donald Trump’s $4.5 trillion tax breaks and spending cuts bill early Thursday. They were up all night as GOP leaders and the president himself worked to persuade skeptical holdouts to drop their opposition and deliver by their Fourth of July deadline. Read more.

Why this matters: The House ground to a standstill Wednesday as a handful of holdouts refused to move so quickly. One roll call dragged for some seven hours while another stalled for more than five, and Trump himself worked the phones and lashed out on social media. Trump has been threatening to campaign against those who voted against the bill.   House Speaker Mike Johnson relied on White House officials — including Cabinet secretaries, lawyers and others — to work skeptical Republicans through the details. Lawmakers were being told the administration could provide executive actions, projects or other provisions they needed in their districts back home.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ See each state’s expected Medicaid cuts under Trump’s bill   How an empty North Carolina rural hospital explains a GOP senator’s vote against Trump’s tax bill   Massachusetts advocates fear Trump’s bill will unravel health safety net in Obamacare’s model state   How a GOP rift over tech regulation doomed a ban on state AI laws in Trump’s tax bill   Some education grants in limbo were used for ‘leftwing agenda,’ Trump administration says   Judge blocks order barring asylum access at border and gives administration two weeks to appeal   Kilmar Abrego Garcia says he was beaten and subjected to psychological torture in El Salvador jail   Judge ends order blocking deportation of family of man charged in Boulder firebomb attack   Lawsuit says Trump's immigration crackdown has put LA 'under siege' in defiance of federal law   With public ban on band Bob Vylan, Trump appears to ease visa privacy rules to make a point   Groups sue to stop Trump administration from using what they call unconstitutional tactics in raids   Trump ramps up his attacks against NYC’s Zohran Mamdani as GOP seizes on new foe   Trump asks Supreme Court to remove 3 Democrats on the Consumer Product Safety Commission   New CIA report criticizes investigation into Russia’s support for Trump in 2016   President Trump announces trade deal with Vietnam that will let US goods into the country duty-free   FDA vaccine official restricted COVID vaccine approvals against the advice of agency staff   RSV vaccine access expanded to some people in their 50s, according to CDC website   RFK Jr. made promises about vaccines. Here’s what he’s done as health secretary   How Rhode Island finally pushed a partial assault weapons ban over the finish line   Trump will kick off a yearlong celebration of America’s 250th anniversary with event in Iowa

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?️ House Dems urged to toughen up

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

At town halls in their districts and in one-on-one meetings with constituents and activists, Democratic members of Congress are facing a growing thrum of demands to break the rules, fight dirty — and not be afraid to get hurt, Axios' Andrew Solender writes. "This idea that we're going to save every norm and that we're not going to play [Republicans'] game ... I don't think that's resonating with voters anymore," one House Democrat told us. Why it matters: House Democrats told Axios they see growing anger in their base that has, in some cases, morphed into a disregard for American institutions, political traditions and even the rule of law. ? Zoom in: For months, Democratic lawmakers have fumed that the base's demands to "fight harder" ignore the lack of legislative and investigative power afforded to the minority party in Congress. Liberal voters have angrily accosted Democrats at town halls for, in their view, not doing enough to counter President Trump's agenda. "Some of them have suggested ... what we really need to do is be willing to get shot" when visiting ICE facilities or federal agencies, a House Democrat told Axios. Another House Democrat said constituents have said "civility isn't working" and to prepare for "violence ... to fight to protect our democracy." Keep reading ...

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? Reconciliation 2.0

After a short-lived rebellion against President Trump's "big, beautiful bill," members of the House Freedom Caucus are redirecting their wrath to the next reconciliation bill.

Why it matters: Armed with handshake agreements, these hardliners claim they're poised to get their wishlists passed. They're optimistic that next time, Trump and congressional leaders will follow through.

• "The plan is to do one in the fall for FY26 budget year, and we can also squeeze in a third one for FY27 before this Congress is up," Speaker Johnson said last week on Fox News.

What they're saying: Holdouts said they were given "assurances" that some of their priorities that got nixed in the Senate have paths forward, either in future reconciliation bills or through executive action.

• Tackling the deficit, making deeper cuts to wind and solar tax credits, and more aggressively going after fraud in Medicaid were discussed while the bill was in limbo.
• Trump administration officials "were very forthcoming with information about going after fraud, and getting rid of a lot of the nonsense in our energy policies," Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) told reporters Thursday.
• Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) attributed his shift in support to Trump and told us he wasn't directly promised anything in exchange. Norman said he would like to see a broader phase-out of clean energy tax credits and an executive action targeting Medicaid fraud.

The bottom line: While conservative hardliners are claiming victory for the handshake deals they obtained, they didn't get any of the actual changes they wanted to the "big, beautiful bill."

— Kate Santaliz

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Senate GOP super PAC's fundraising record

The Senate GOP's top super PAC and affiliates have more than doubled their fundraising record for the first half of an off-year — bringing in $85 million, Axios' Stef W. Kight reports.

Why it matters: Senate Leadership Fund is a campaign powerhouse for the GOP. But its new leaders want to shake things up after a decade of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and his allies at the helm.

• This is the group's first fundraising release since Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) took over as Senate GOP leader.

Zoom in: President Trump is more involved than ever, SLF executive director Alex Latcham told Axios in an interview.

• "We're working with [the White House] to identify and vet Senate candidates," Latcham said, describing it as an asset "as we navigate some of these primaries."
• Discussions with the White House about 2026 come at a "regular cadence, whether it's in person, over the phone."

? By the numbers: SLF and its affiliated group One Nation have raised over $85 million since the start of the year — far more than the $38 million raised over the same period in 2023, the group told Axios.

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Vacationing Cruz’s Claim He Returned to Texas as ‘Fast as Humanly Possible’ Crumbles

Cruz says he returned to Texas as quickly as he could after news of devastating floods broke. Flight data tells a different story.

Ted Cruz could have booked numerous flights from Greece to Texas before the one he boarded—despite his office claiming he came home from his European vacation “as fast as humanly possible.”

The Daily Beast’s newsletter The Swamp revealed Monday how Cruz was caught touring the Parthenon in Athens, Greece, 24 hours after the Guadalupe River burst its banks, sweeping away dozens of lives in an unspeakable horror whose full effects are still unfolding.

After we published, Cruz’s director of communications issued the claim about his speed of return, adding that the article was “a bull----piece” that showed “no regard for the tragedy in Texas.” But the Daily Beast has reviewed flight options for Cruz from Athens to San Antonio and discovered several that would have gotten him back sooner than his Sunday return.

Flight data shows multiple flights from Athens to San Antonio, Texas, on Friday, July 4 and Saturday, July 5, after the floods hit.

While it is not known how many seats were available on each flight, possible options included flights leaving Athens on Saturday morning and landing in San Antonio that evening via Chicago, Atlanta, or Washington, D.C.

Earlier flights were also available on Friday once the seriousness of the floods was becoming apparent.

Due to high demand, several airlines also announced this year that Greece would have more direct air connections with the U.S. than it has ever had.

The senator arrived in Athens on Thursday to take a brief break after the Senate voted to pass Trump’s so-called “Big, Beautiful Bill.”

However, Cruz raised eyebrows among vacationers when he was spotted with his wife lining up outside the Parthenon on Saturday, July 5, at about 6 p.m. local time (11 a.m. ET)—more than 24 hours after the Guadalupe River burst its banks.

“He was with his family and a lone security guard,” said an eyewitness at the Parthenon. “As he walked past us, I simply said, ‘20 kids dead in Texas and you take a vacation?’

“He sort of grunted and walked on,” the Swamp spy continued. “His wife shot me a dirty look. Then they continued on with their tour guide.”

Cruz was back on the airwaves from Texas on Monday morning, telling reporters that he had been in contact with local authorities and the president within hours of the floods to seek support and resources for the community.

He also appeared live on Fox & Friends from Kerrville, Texas, in the area hardest hit by the disaster, and posted a number of messages to X.

“There aren’t words to describe the grief that Texans are feeling. Pray for Texas and Kerr County,” he wrote.

The devastating floods dumped more than a month’s worth of rain in parts of central Texas, killing more than 100 people, including 27 children, according to officials.

Some Democrats have questioned whether Trump’s cuts to the federal government could have impacted the human toll of the disaster.

However, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called this a “depraved lie.” She said a flood watch was issued in the early afternoon of Thursday, July 3, followed by a flash flood warning that night and the early morning of July 4, “giving preliminary lead times of more than three hours before flash flooding conditions occurred.

“Despite unprecedented rainfall, the National Weather Service executed timely and precise forecasts and warnings,” Leavitt said.

“Many Democratic elected officials are trying to turn this into a political game. It is not. This is a national tragedy.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/vacationing-ted-cruzs-as-fast-as-humanly-possible-return-claim-crumbles/?

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? GOP cheers Putin slams

Senate Republican hawks are eagerly embracing President Trump's increasingly critical comments on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

• "I'm very happy that President Trump has recognized that Putin was giving him the Heisman," Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told us.
• Trump "is spot on about the games Putin is playing," Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) posted on X, adding, "The Senate will move soon on a tough sanctions bill."

Why it matters: U.S. military support for Ukraine has become one of the biggest flashpoints between the GOP's growing isolationist wing and more traditional Reaganite hawks.

• During a Cabinet meeting today, Trump lamented that Putin's warm words are ultimately "meaningless," saying, "We get a lot of bullsh*t thrown at us by Putin."
• Asked about who made the initial decision to briefly pause weapons shipments to Ukraine last week, Trump said, "I don't know. Why don't you tell me?"

That pause sparked grave concerns among GOP hawks.

• "The self-indulgent policymaking of restrainers — from Ukraine to AUKUS — has so often required the President to clean up his staff's messes," Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said in a withering statement today.
• He urged Trump to "reject calls from the isolationists and restrainers within his Administration to limit these deliveries to defensive weapons."

What's next: Graham told reporters tonight he feels confident Trump is on board after some changes have been made to the lawmaker's Russia sanctions bill — including a 180-day waiver. After that, any next waiver would be subject to congressional approval.

• Senate Majority Leader John Thune remains noncommittal on the vote timing for Graham's bill, telling reporters today an announcement could come this week.
• The bill would not only hit Russia with economic sanctions if Putin refuses to negotiate with Ukraine, but it also sets a 500% tariff on goods imported from countries that buy Russian oil.
• It has 85 cosponsors.

— Stef Kight

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? Dems try hardball

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is warning Republicans they'll risk a government shutdown all alone if they ram through cuts to PBS and foreign aid. Now he just needs them to take that threat seriously.

? Why it matters: A shutdown fight in this political climate could put Democratic senators under the most intense pressure of their careers. But the threat of a shutdown is Schumer's only real leverage.

• Schumer outraged his base earlier this year by voting to keep the government open. He's long opposed government shutdowns.
• But the base's message is even louder now: Fight, fight, fight.

? The big picture: To some Senate Dems, the GOP's unilateral clawbacks would kill the bipartisan trust they need to work together on spending bills.

• The GOP needs at least seven Democratic votes to extend government funding ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline.

? Zoom in: The current GOP rescissions package has a deadline of next Friday.

• "That is a road Senate Republicans would be wise not to go down," Schumer said yesterday on the Senate floor.
• Schumer doesn't view next week's expected vote as a red line. But the real concern among Dems is the GOP's desire to pursue even more rescission packages. President Trump has signaled such interest.

?‍♂️ Republicans are listening: Senate Majority Leader John Thune said today that Schumer "implicitly threatened to shut down the government."

The bottom line: Battleground Democrats told us they understood the deep frustration with Trump and GOP leaders, but they aren't united on the idea of using a possible shutdown as leverage.

• "It's basically saying that the Congress has no power whatsoever and our appropriations process is worthless," Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) said of the GOP cuts. He was one of 10 Democrats to vote to fund the government earlier this year.
• "It's incredibly frustrating to see this president want to renege on a bill that he signed into law," Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) told us after saying shutdowns should be avoided.
• "Play stupid games, win stupid prizes," Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) told us.

— Stephen Neukam

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? "Gut-check time"

On the GOP side, Majority Leader Thune has some internal dissent to settle before that vote next week to claw back billions of dollars in federal spending.

Why it matters: Thune can only afford to lose three GOP votes.

• Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) set off a back-and-forth among senators today after mentioning her concerns during a closed-door lunch.
• She emphasized the issues she had with cuts to global health programs, three sources familiar tell us.
• Collins also argued that the process for finding savings is supposed to be in the annual appropriations process, which she oversees as committee chair.

Zoom in: Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) was among those who highlighted concerns, as well as Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Jerry Moran (R-Kan.).

• Sens. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.), John Kennedy (R-La.) and Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) defended the package, the sources said.
• The idea was raised of bringing in Trump's budget chief, Russ Vought, to answer questions from senators.

The bottom line: "A lot of questions are being asked, and they're appropriate questions. Russ Vought can answer them," Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) told reporters.

• "There are some people in the Senate — you'll be surprised, I'm sure — that talk one way and act another," Kennedy said.
• "They say they're for reducing spending, but they're really not."
• "It's gut-check time," Kennedy said. "We need to pass this bill."

— Stef Kight

[phkrause]

? Moreno targets Powell

Sen. Bernie Moreno is recruiting more GOP senators for his pressure campaign to force Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell to resign.

Why it matters: Powell has resisted calls from Trump to leave his post early, enduring mockery and meanness from the very president who appointed him in 2017.

• Moreno (R-Ohio) wants to broaden the case against Powell and amp up the pressure to persuade the Fed to lower interest rates more quickly.
• A member of the Senate Banking Committee, Moreno is also setting the stage for the confirmation process for the next Fed chair. Powell's chairmanship ends in May 2026.
• So far, Moreno and Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) are the only senators to have called on Powell to resign.

Driving the news: In a closed-door Senate lunch today, Moreno made his case against Powell, arguing that he is misreading the inflation data and mischaracterizing the effects of Trump's tariffs.

• "Your choice not to lower interest rates despite the Trump Administration's economic progress is costing our country $400 billion per year," Moreno wrote to Powell this evening in a letter we obtained.
• "You should resign immediately and allow the President the deference to select someone he feels can make the changes needed to restore the credibility of the Federal Reserve System."

Zoom out: The core complaint among the Republicans frustrated with Powell centers on rates and what is perceived as the Federal Open Market Committee's slowness in cutting them under his leadership.

• Those challenging him are also convinced the Fed was more willing to cut rates when Biden was president.
• Moreno is particularly upset the current target rate, set between 4.25% and 4.5%, is increasing the deficit and making it more difficult for consumers to finance car purchases and pay their credit cards.

The other side: "I don't think a bunch of politicians ought to be telling the Federal Reserve how to regulate," Sen. Kennedy told us.

— Hans Nichols

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? Senate megadrama

Sen. John Cornyn will have to keep praying for a President Trump endorsement in the GOP Senate primary in Texas, but today he got some direct intervention from a different source: his opponent's wife of 38 years.

Why it matters: The very public announcement from Texas state Sen. Angela Paxton that she would file for divorce from Texas AG Ken Paxton on "biblical grounds" might not save Cornyn, but it finally gives him an opening in a race that was slipping away.

• ? Before the divorce news, Trump was acting as a spectator-in-chief and not an endorser-in-chief.
• In a meeting with Senate Majority Leader Thune last night, Trump officials said they wanted to see if Cornyn could close his massive polling gap before the president puts his thumb on the scale, as Punchbowl News first reported.
• Both Cornyn and Paxton camps think a Trump endorsement could make or break their chances — but Cornyn needs it most right now.

✈️ NEWS: Cornyn will fly with Trump on Air Force One to Texas tomorrow, according to a Cornyn aide, as the president visits where flooding took the lives of more than 120 people.

Zoom in: The GOP establishment quickly pounced on the divorce bombshell.

• "What Ken Paxton has put his family through is truly repulsive and disgusting," NRSC spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez said in a statement.
• Another NRSC staffer reposted an old photo of John Cornyn and his wife, Sandy, celebrating an anniversary.
• SLF executive director Alex Latcham posted "Ezekiel 16:33," a Bible verse referencing gifts to prostitutes.

Zoom out: The nasty primary has been giving Republicans heartburn for months.

• Paxton has been above 50% in some private polls. He survived an impeachment hearing in 2023, when Angela Paxton first heard the accusation that he had a mistress.
• Republican leaders have pledged to help Cornyn in his uphill battle, but everyone acknowledges it will be expensive.

? The bottom line: If Paxton wins the primary, Democrats are convinced he'd be a weak candidate who could finally allow them to flip the Lone Star State blue.

— Stef Kight and Hans Nichols