Congress: The Senate & The House

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? Scoop: Dems fear Texas bloodbath

Texas' mid-decade redistricting has left members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus scrambling to fend off what some predict would be one of the most brutal battles in the group's history, we have learned.

Why it matters: A new map would put the group's chair, Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas), and one of its longest-serving members, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), in the same district.

• ? Lawmakers fear it would be a bloodbath if they both run — and it would definitely be a headache for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

? Driving the news: "It'll be a nasty race, probably," said one House Democrat, who, like others quoted in this story, is a Progressive Caucus member who spoke on the condition of anonymity to offer candid thoughts about the group's sensitive internal dynamics.

• The race would be yet another front in Democrats' bitter civil war over age: Casar is 36 and seen as one of the party's rising stars, while Doggett is 78 and was first elected in 1994.
• A senior House Democrat told Axios that lawmakers are "carefully" nudging Doggett to bow out.

State of play: Under Texas Republicans' proposed map, five new seats that are either solidly or lean GOP would be squeezed out, leaving Casar and Doggett to fight for just one Austin-based seat.

• ? Several lawmakers noted Doggett was the first House Democrat to call on President Biden to withdraw his bid for reelection last year over concerns about his age and fitness.
• "This will be an opportunity for Lloyd to kind of take his own advice," said the first House Democrat, who warned Doggett would "taint his legacy" by running and that Casar "will win."

The other side: "Promoting this type of division and infighting is exactly what Republicans want. Greg and I are both committed to working together to stop this outrageous gerrymandering," Doggett said in a statement.

• He urged his CPC colleagues to also make fighting GOP redistricting their top priority.
• Noting the new map still contains two-thirds of his current constituents, Doggett added: "As to President Joe Biden, I did speak out when others were silent, not about his age, but his ability and electability."

Like Doggett, Casar has said his focus is on stopping the redistricting. His spokesperson did not provide comment on this story.

• "Congressman Doggett and I are united in fighting back against this illegal map," Casar said Wednesday on CNN.

The bottom line: At the end of the day, "they both have the right to run," said the senior House Democrat.

— Andrew Solender

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Thune's logjam

✈️ Senators want to leave, President Trump wants them to stay, Democrats have demands with leverage, and Majority Leader John Thune has a so-called nuclear option in his hand.

Why it matters: A deal to get nominees confirmed fast enough to please Trump and preserve August recess has so far remained elusive — but there is still time for jet fumes to work their magic.

• At least one problem was solved: Senators were able to start voting on the first slate of annual appropriations bills this afternoon.
• ? There had been bipartisan holdups from senators who wanted a separate vote on a bill providing funding for the legislative branch, which they will now get.

? Zoom in: But the bigger issue of nominations still looms over senators' weekend and August plans.

• Thune met with Trump yesterday but left without a solid path forward.
• Last night, Trump posted to his Truth Social account that the Senate "must stay in Session, taking no recess, until the entire Executive Calendar is CLEAR!!!"
• Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, meanwhile, is demanding that the White House release withheld funds and insisting on a smaller package of nominees in exchange for Democrats' sign-off to move faster.

? What we're hearing: Mostly, there's unhappiness. Here's a smattering of texts from Senate staffers:

• ? "This is hell"
• "Vibes are bad"
• "Ok three paths here… None of them are great"

Zoom out: Republicans have already been threatening a nuclear option — using their majority to change chamber rules and fast-track nominations.

• The longer negotiations drag out, the better that option sounds.
• Thune could also force senators to keep voting deep into August — and hope four GOP senators don't decide to bail anyway.
• Or leadership folds to Schumer and tired senators and goes into recess, risking Trump's wrath. 

— Stef Kight

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? Senate's own jobs skepticism

Trump doesn't trust the job numbers. Now, senators also have a reason to doubt them.

Why it matters: Trump's decision to fire the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics over weak labor numbers sent shockwaves across the Senate.

• ? "When you don't like the message, fire the messenger," Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said, according to Semafor.
• When asked if she can still trust the numbers, she responded: "No. That's the problem. And when you fire people, it makes you trust them even less."

Driving the news: Democrats responded with outrage over Trump's announcement he was dismissing Erika L. McEntarfer from the Department of Labor.

• McEntarfer was confirmed 86-8 in January 2024, including a "yes" vote from then-Sen. JD Vance.
• "Instead of trying to fix the economy, he shoots the messenger," Schumer said on the Senate floor.

Yes, but: When asked if Trump's move will undermine faith in job numbers, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) replied: "I don't believe economists half the time anyway."

✅ Reality check: Doctoring job numbers would require a conspiracy across several government departments.

• Government statistics agencies are historically insulated from politics, as Axios' Neil Irwin notes, so they can tally up activity in a $30 trillion economy. 

— Hans Nichols

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? "Nuclear option" hovers over Senate

After Senate leaders failed to fast-track more of President Trump's nominees before recess, Republicans are vowing to change the rules when they return in September, Axios' Stef Kight and Stephen Neukam report.

• Why it matters: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) refused to back down from his demands. Trump ultimately gave Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) cover to let his fatigued conference go home and reset yesterday evening— setting the stage for a renewed fight this fall.

⚖️ Zoom in: Senate Republicans are eyeing rules changes to counter Democrats' stonewalling of civil nominee confirmations. It's unclear what exact changes they'll pursue.

• Some options include eliminating procedural votes; shortening debate time; voting on nominees en bloc; or shortening the list of positions requiring confirmation.

Recess appointments — mentioned again yesterday — remain another path forward.

• After days of heated arguments among lawmakers, Trump seemed to permit senators to head home for the scheduled break on Truth Social, where he also said Schumer should "GO TO HELL!"

Via Truth Social

? The other side: Top Senate Democrats slammed a potential GOP move to change Senate rules for confirming more Trump nominees, calling it a "nuclear" option.

• Democrats want Republican concessions, like unfreezing some federal funding, before agreeing to advance the logjam of nominees.

Keep reading ...

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Senators began their August recess over the weekend without a deal to confirm nominees to dozens of government positions. Republicans said they will pursue rule changes in September, enabling them to speed up the process.

 

At issue was the approach to confirming lower-level appointees like assistant secretaries. Democrats this year required roll call votes on almost all nominees, a process that can take days—and the first known time a minority party has refused to fast-track any confirmations. The decision continues a yearslong trend; confirmations took an average of 192 days in the Biden administration, up from 69 days in the Reagan administration.

 

Democrats had agreed to fast-track some confirmations in exchange for restoring foreign aid and science research funding, but the deal fell through. Before breaking for recess, the Senate confirmed several nominees, including former New York judge and Fox News host Jeanine Pirro for US attorney for DC. Track confirmations here.

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?️ New Dem push for Palestinian statehood

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

More than a dozen House Democrats have now signed onto a letter urging the Trump administration to recognize a Palestinian state — and at least one plans to introduce a pro-statehood resolution, Axios' Andrew Solender has learned. The letter, which is led by Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), points to French President Emmanuel Macron's recent pledge to recognize the State of Palestine at the U.N. in September. Keep reading ...

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? 2026 open warfare

Some House lawmakers are begging their leaders to call off the 2026 redistricting free-for-all. But it already looks too late.

• Why it matters: For House incumbents, their seats suddenly look less safe. For governors, there's every possible incentive to lean into naked partisan warfare.

Zoom in: Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) plans to introduce legislation to ban mid-decade redistricting efforts nationwide, we reported earlier today.

• The bill would "stop a damaging redistricting war from breaking out across the country," Kiley said in a press release previewing the measure.
• He's got a few moderate allies, but the bill is highly unlikely to pass the House — let alone become law.

Zoom out: President Trump, with support from House Speaker Mike Johnson, has urged Republicans to go all-in to redistrict more House seats in the GOP's favor.

• In their big prize of Texas, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott ordered the state's Department of Public Safety today to track down Dems who've fled the state to deny the GOP a quorum on a redistricting vote.
• Ahead of that order, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called Abbott "cowardly" today for his threats to crack down on Dems.

? "We are at war," New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) said today. "And that's why the gloves are off."

• "I'm tired of fighting this fight with my hand tied behind my back," said Hochul, who said she's prepared to get rid of the state's commission that draws congressional districts.

What's next: The DNC is joining the fight from Chicago tomorrow, as we scooped earlier tonight.

• DNC Chair Ken Martin and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker will host a press conference with Texas Democrats who've evaded quorum.

— Andrew Solender and Stef Kight

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? Scoop: Sherrod in hiring mode

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is interviewing campaign managers for a possible 2026 comeback bid, we scooped this afternoon.

Why it matters: Brown would be another marquee recruit for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who made two trips to Ohio this summer to persuade Brown to enter the race.

• Brown, a three-term senator, lost Ohio by under four percentage points in 2024, when Vice President Harris lost to President Trump by 11 points. Brown had told donors beforehand he would have a chance if Harris lost by eight points or less.
• If he makes a final decision to enter the race, Brown would join former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, who announced his Senate campaign last week, as two of Schumer's top prospects to eat into the GOP's margins in 2026.

Zoom out: Schumer knows that Brown is likely his best shot at running a competitive campaign in Ohio next year, as the state moves away from the Democratic Party.

• Brown would face Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), who was appointed to fill the vacant seat created when JD Vance resigned from the Senate to serve as vice president.
• Husted will come to his first Senate election with the Republican Party fully behind him and the financial resources to prove it.
• Husted raised $2.9 million in the second quarter of the year, leaving him with $2.6 million cash on hand at the beginning of July.

Zoom in: Schumer has been courting Brown at every opportunity, including in Ohio last week, we first reported.

• Given Brown's long-standing pro-tariff and trade-skeptical positions, Democrats think he can outperform a generic Democrat and appeal to some MAGA voters.

— Hans Nichols and Stephen Neukam

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? Dems go nuclear in redistricting race

Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios

Top Democrats are speaking — and acting — in increasingly existential terms over the audacious Trump-backed push to redraw Texas' congressional map ahead of the 2026 midterms, Axios' Zachary Basu writes. Why it matters: The proposed Texas map is designed to net the GOP up to five House seats — potentially enough to decide the majority for President Trump's Republicans in his final two years in office. For many Democrats, this moment is an inflection point in the party's Trump-era identity crisis — one that could determine whether "fighters" or "folders" carry the torch into 2028. "This is a war. We are at war. And that's why the gloves are off, and I say bring it on," New York Gov. Kathy Hochul declared yesterday. ? Zoom in: More than 50 Democratic lawmakers fled Texas on Sunday to prevent the GOP-controlled legislature from voting on the new map. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott threatened them with daily $500 fines, felony bribery charges if the fines are paid for by donations, and the possibility of removal from office. The Texas state House issued civil arrest warrants. California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Via X State of play: Outside Texas, key Democratic governors have launched an aggressive counteroffensive to try to neutralize the GOP's redistricting push. In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom is eyeing a November special election that would sideline the state's independent redistricting commission and ask voters to approve a new, legislature-drawn map favoring Democrats. In New York, Hochul said Democrats have "no choice" but to pursue a constitutional amendment to authorize new maps — though it wouldn't appear on the ballot until 2027 at the earliest. In Illinois, where the congressional map is already heavily gerrymandered, Gov. JB Pritzker has vowed to protect fleeing Texas Democrats and left the door open to further revisions of the state's map. ? Between the lines: Newsom's push for a referendum in just three months will be a legal and political high-wire act that — if successful — could become the defining achievement of his career. "If this works and Dems win the House in 2026 by <5 seats, 'I saved us from a second MAGA Republican trifecta' is a hell of a platform for Newsom to run [for president] on in 2028," tweeted Democratic pollster Adam Carlson. Go deeper: California could slash 5 GOP U.S. House seats to counter Texas' move to pad Republican margin.

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House committee issues subpoenas for Epstein files and depositions with the Clintons

WASHINGTON (AP) — The House Oversight Committee subpoenaed the Justice Department on Tuesday for files in the Jeffrey Epstein sex trafficking investigation and is seeking depositions with the Clintons and former law enforcement officials, part of a congressional probe that lawmakers believe may show links to President Donald Trump and former top officials.

https://apnews.com/article/epstein-trump-congress-subpoena-clintons-a02749e1fe6f0de0c385c7fac186d3ba?

? Schumer on the trail

Schumer was in upstate New York today to kick off a critical August recess that will have implications on whether he wins back his majority. Why it matters: Schumer forced the GOP to leave town for the summer empty-handed last week. Now he'll try to build on that momentum. Today, he was in Niagara to rail against the impact of tariffs on tourism; in Orleans to raise the alarm about job training program cuts; at a community hospital in Cayuga to talk about Medicaid cuts; and in Binghampton to hit the GOP on Social Security cuts. Between the lines: The itinerary is an example of what Schumer wants Democrats to do — hyper-localize national issues like Medicaid cuts and funding freezes to drive down support for the GOP. Senate and House Democrats will also team up for national days of action this month, focusing on saving Social Security, the cost of living and health care. — Stephen Neukam

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? Johnson's fresh defectors

Speaking of redistricting: Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.), a swing-district member, took a shot at Johnson today, saying in a Fox News interview that he "needs to step up and show some leadership" on the issue.

• "This is not something that is popular among members of our conference," added Kiley, a likely target of California redistricting who has introduced legislation to ban mid-decade redistricting in all states.
• Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) said yesterday he will introduce similar legislation. "I don't think Texas should do it," Lawler said this weekend.
• Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) said in a Bloomberg interview: "I don't care if it's the Republicans or the Democrats that are doing it — it's wrong and it should not be done."

Go deeper

— Andrew Solender

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? Dems' dream list

Surprise! Chuck Schumer's dream scenario for Senate Democrats in the 2026 midterms is alive and kicking.

Why it matters: The party started the year hoping to just chip away at the GOP's Senate majority in 2026. But they can dare to dream bigger if Schumer can close on his biggest recruiting targets.

• Schumer last week landed former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) to run in North Carolina's open race to succeed retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R).

Zoom in: The two biggest players on Schumer's recruiting board are former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in Ohio and Gov. Janet Mills (D) in Maine.

• Brown is talking to campaign managers about a potential comeback Senate bid, we scooped this week. It's a clear indication Brown is considering jumping into the race against Sen. John Husted (R-Ohio).
• Mills is a huge question mark for Democrats. She's considering a Senate bid, and Schumer has been in pursuit, but her commitment isn't guaranteed.
• The popular governor is term-limited and would face Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) for a seat that Schumer needs to flip if he has a chance at winning a majority next year.

Between the lines: Schumer needs an extraordinary amount of luck in states like Texas, Florida and Ohio to make them realistic targets for Democrats.

• His luck is good so far in Texas, where Sen. John Cornyn is feuding with the state's Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican primary.

Zoom out: The last six months have armed Schumer and Democrats with plenty of lines of attack against the GOP, especially the massive tax cut package and widespread tariffs.

• But Democrats have just a 33% approval rating as a party, according to a recent Wall Street Journal poll.

— Stephen Neukam

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?‍♀️ Grim Senate pipeline

Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) is the third senator to officially run for governor this cycle, while at least four governors have turned down recruitment efforts to run for Senate.

• She joins Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) and Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) in bucking D.C. for gubernatorial roles.

Why it matters: Governors used to jump at the chance to be a senator. But Govs. Brian Kemp (R-Ga.), Gretchen Whitmer (D-Mich.), Andy Beshear (D-Ky.) and Chris Sununu (R-N.H.) have all passed on open races next year.

• In North Carolina, Cooper's bid for Senate is a notable exception, although he was term-limited out of the statehouse in 2024.
• In Maine, Mills (see above) has yet to decide on challenging Republican incumbent Collins.

The big picture: From 1986 through 2024, 54 incumbent or former governors ran for Senate seats, an average of almost three each cycle, according to a Ballotpedia analysis.

• Just 14 sitting or former senators ran for governor over that time period. 

— Stef Kight

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? The most-desperate midterms

Look anywhere right now, and politicians are joining the calls to use mid-decade redistricting to rig the 2026 midterms in their party's favor.

? Why it matters: Republicans started it. But both parties are behaving as if winning the House majority next year is an existential fight. (See item 2).

• ? What's at stake: If Dems take the House, they can end President Trump's partisan budget cuts, gain control of the House's oversight powers and ... very likely ... impeach the president.

Neither House Speaker Mike Johnson nor House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is in control of redistricting, which is a state-by-state issue.

• But Jeffries said today Democrats can't "unilaterally disarm," and Johnson has spoken positively about the push in Texas.

⏰ In just the last 23 days:

• July 15: Trump pushed Texas Republicans for a mid-decade redistricting explicitly to add five GOP seats. Just three weeks ago, this was considered an extraordinary gambit.
• July 16: Gov. Gavin Newsom threatened to retaliate by adding five Democratic seats, despite California's state Constitution forbidding mid-decade redraws. He'll likely try to change the Constitution in November by calling a special election.
• Aug. 3: Texas Democrats fled the state to deny quorum for a special session that would include a vote on redistricting.
• Aug 4: Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul teased a constitutional amendment to bypass the redistricting commission in New York after the midterms.
• Aug. 5: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) asked the FBI to help track down the Texas Democrats.
• Today: Trump called for a new census that wouldn't count undocumented immigrants. This seems extremely unlikely. The Supreme Court blocked Trump from not counting undocumented people in the 2020 census.
• Today: Cornyn said the FBI has agreed to help track down the Texas Democrats.
• Today: Florida's Republican House Speaker Daniel Perez said he'll create a select committee to explore redistricting the state's congressional maps. If the state Legislature acts, it could add three or more GOP seats.

The bottom line: The past three weeks have upended decades of efforts to limit partisan politics' influence on redistricting.

— Justin Green

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? Dems embrace scorched earth

The fight over redistricting is a rare moment in which Jeffries and his members are aligned with the demands of their grassroots base to fight fire with fire.

• "Hakeem is clearly upset and angry and frustrated by this," said Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.), Jeffries' ranking member on the House Administration Committee.
• "I think we all are. ... It's existential now."

Why it matters: Promises to gerrymander Democratic-led states may have begun as threats of mutually assured destruction, but they have hardened into cold political reality.

• "Democratic Governors and state legislators can either fight back, or they can let Donald Trump and Republicans steal the midterm elections," House Democratic caucus vice chair Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) said on X.

Democratic leadership has made a similar case in private, according to multiple sources.

• "Every Democratic [governor] with these levers should get a plan together," one senior House Democrat told us.
• Though Jeffries was just in Texas huddling with Democratic legislators, he is "talking to other states," said a second senior House Democrat.

Zoom in: Unlike blue-state Republicans, even the Democrats with the most to lose say the party should put aside its commitment to fairer redistricting and get down in the mud with Republicans.

• Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas) said he "100%" agrees with Lieu. Asked about the risk to his own seat, he told us, "That train has left the station."
• Another Texas Democrat told us: "I think we should fight back."
• "This is a game of chess," said a Florida Democrat whose seat is also at risk. "Every move has another move until checkmate."

Zoom out: In addition to California and New York, lawmakers pointed to Maryland, Illinois, New Jersey, Oregon and Washington as potential targets.

• "I think most Democratic candidates and elected officials agree with the base on this," said Rep. Sarah McBride (D-Del.). "I don't anticipate a ton of daylight."

Yes, but: "Many states cannot" gerrymander, warned the second House Democrat, "Democratic governor or not."

• Several Democratic governors are constrained by legislatures at least partially controlled by Republicans, and substantial procedural hurdles exist in states like California and New York.

The bottom line: "I think there's broad agreement by Democrats that ... we simply can't stand by and let the Republican Party completely ruin the map," said Morelle.

— Andrew Solender

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?️ Earmarked for redistricting

Data: Axios research. Chart: Axios Visuals More than a dozen House members — five Republicans and eight Democrats — are targets of mid-decade redistricting efforts in four states, Axios' Kathleen Hunter and Andrew Solender report. Context: President Trump kicked off the unusual mid-decade redistricting frenzy when he urged Texas lawmakers to eke out five more GOP House seats, leading to a weeklong walkout by Democrats in the Lone Star state legislature. The political fight now spans state legislatures from California to Florida. Other states considering early redistricting include New York, Missouri, Wisconsin, Maryland, Ohio and Indiana. Adding another layer of intrigue, Trump said Thursday on Truth Social: "I have instructed our Department of Commerce to immediately begin work on a new and highly accurate CENSUS based on modern day facts and figures and, importantly, using the results and information gained from the Presidential Election of 2024. People who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS. Thank you for your attention to this matter!" Keep reading ... Reality check on mid-decade census threat.

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? Vanishing August ritual

Vulnerable House GOP incumbents sure aren't hosting town halls this summer to sell President Trump's signature legislation like their political lives depend on it.

? Why it matters: Republicans insist Trump's "one big, beautiful bill" will become more popular as voters learn more about it. But they're avoiding the in-person town halls that are a mainstay of the August recess.

• Most of the GOP's at-risk members have shunned them altogether, although Reps. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) and Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.) have held tele-town halls, according to an Axios review.

Zoom in: Before lawmakers left town, the NRCC urged their incumbents to "use your time in the district as an opportunity to sell our wins, especially those in the One Big Beautiful Bill."

• "Now it's up to us to go on offense and show voters how every part of this bill is a big, beautiful win for working families," a NRCC memo said.
• The memo didn't suggest public town halls. Back in March, NRCC Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) advised his members to shift from in-person to virtual town halls to avoid getting baited by paid progressive activists.

? Driving the news: A rowdy July 31 town hall held by Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wisc.) put Republican lawmakers on notice that selling Trump's bill on stage can generate more negative headlines than positive ones.

• Steil faced boos at the event over Trump's tariff policy, and pointed questions about the Medicaid cuts in the bill that was signed into law earlier that month.

The other side: Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.) has defied the GOP trend, facing multiple hostile crowds this year.

• "It's important to stand in the town square and explain your votes and what it means to dispel misinformation and take questions," Flood told NPR after his Lincoln town hall went viral last week.
• "I don't know if I get credit for it or not, but I know some people that will never vote for me come to these things. ... I want them to be able to say what they have to say," he said.

What they're saying: "House Republicans have been hiding from their constituents for so long that even one of their own is calling them out for their cowardice," said Viet Shelton, a spokesperson for the DCCC, referring to Flood's comments.

• "The public deserve representatives that will listen to and fight for them, not disappear because they're too scared to admit they've sold out working families to please their billionaire bosses," he said.
• Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the NRCC, countered: "Across the country, Members are taking our message directly to the people, highlighting how these wins are lowering costs, keeping communities safe, and protecting vital programs for the most vulnerable."

Zoom out: Trump's bill still remains unpopular, with 58% of voters disapproving of it, according to a Fox News survey last month.

• Support for the legislation, which cuts taxes along with cutting spending on Medicaid, food stamps and renewable energy, has been underwater all year.
• Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) insisted in late June that lawmakers just need to sell it to their constituents.

The bottom line: Some Republicans vow that they will continue to engage with voters at town halls, but maybe not this August.

• "I have held four town halls already," said Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), speaking of 2025. "We will continue to hold town hall meetings, as I have every year I've been in Congress."

— Hans Nichols and Andrew Solender

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? Scoop ... Inside Jeffries' donor retreat

Many Democrats left House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' annual California fundraising event last week convinced Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is running for president, according to four attendees.

• ? Jeffries' event at the luxury Lodge at Torrey Pines is the successor to Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi's wine-soaked summer donor party in Napa, California.

Why it matters: Democrats lapped up the message from the two-term governor, who told big dollar donors and vulnerable House Dems that the key to winning over Trump voters is staying true to your values.

• Beshear's biggest applause line came when he explained why he vetoed a bill in 2023, when he was up for reelection, that restricted some medical care and bathroom use for transgender people.
• Beshear called it "the nastiest anti-trans bills in the nation — and I vetoed it," according to attendees.
• "There are some things worth losing over," Beshear, who went on to win by five percentage points, said.

Zoom out: Democrats are eager to find candidates — and messages — that they think will appeal to voters in red and blue states.

• Both Beshear and Jeffries spoke of the importance of authenticity and using words that voters actually use.
• Don't be afraid to say "addiction," Beshear said, when discussing the opioid crisis.

Zoom in: In both public and private conversations, the looming mid-cycle redistricting battle was frequently discussed. Democrats promised their donors that they would respond to GOP gerrymander efforts.

• "We are working on an aggressive plan to make sure we fight fire with fire on redistricting," according to a member of Congress in attendance.

In addition to Jeffries, House Minority Whip Katherine Clark and Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar attended, along with roughly a dozen "Frontline" lawmakers and some California members as well.

• After Beshear's Friday night fireside chat with Jeffries, donors got a political update from DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene and Mike Smith, the president of the House Majority PAC, which can accept unlimited donations.
• Jared Bernstein, Biden's former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers and Wally Adeyemo, Biden's deputy treasury secretary, provided an economic overview.
• Jake Sullivan, Biden's national security adviser, and Susan Rice, one of his domestic policy advisers, discussed foreign affairs and immigration.

Between the lines: Beshear adviser Eric Hyers told Axios: "Andy knows how critical it is that Democrats take back the House next year and was happy to join Leader Jeffries for a conversation about how Democrats can win tough elections."

— Hans Nichols

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? Spicy Senate fight

President Trump has added an unsolicited, high-profile confirmation fight to the Senate's plate when they're back from August recess.

Why it matters: With a 140+ person backlog on civilian confirmations, Senate Republicans left Washington vowing to fast-track the rules.

• Senate GOP leaders told senators to be ready to move as soon as they return to D.C. in September, sources familiar tell us.
• Senators have suggested everything from shorter debate time to allowing more nominees to be voted on en bloc.

? But the newest nominee's a doozy: Trump said yesterday he'll nominate Heritage Foundation economist E.J. Antoni to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics after he fired Erika McEntarfer.

• Antoni is already sparking concern by suggesting suspending BLS's monthly jobs report.
• Economists left and right are panning his qualifications.

Zoom in: Antoni's confirmation process will first have to go through the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) committee which is chaired by Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.)

• Cassidy called McEntarfer's removal "understandable," and he had previously demanded answers as to why BLS's jobs reports were inaccurate. He's also up for re-election next year.
• But HELP includes frequent Trump critics: Sens. Susan Collins (R-Me.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska).
• "BLS's years-long failure to produce reliable data — especially when that data has broad market-moving implications — is unacceptable," a Cassidy spokesperson told Axios. "Cassidy looks forward to meeting with Dr. Antoni to discuss how he will accomplish this."

— Stef Kight

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?‍♀️ Dems' busy August

100+ events: Senate Democrats had a busy first week of their summer recess.

• The events included town halls, hospital visits and huddles with small business owners, along with visits to food banks.

Why it matters: The hyper-local focus pushed by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer gives Senate Dems an opportunity to build a brand and reputation that is independent of the deeply unpopular national party.

• Schumer wants his caucus to localize the impact of policies Trump and the Republican Congress have embraced in Washington — specifically cuts to health care, tariffs, rising energy costs and tax cuts for the wealthy.

— Stephen Neukam

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Scoop: Chuck's Alaska target

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is quietly pressing former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) to plunge into the Alaska Senate race.

Why it matters: Schumer is trying to recruit his way out of a bad map. Landing Peltola would give him a third statewide winner to cause problems for Senate Majority Leader John Thune.

• Recapturing the majority is still an uphill battle for Democrats, but when they squint — and make some favorable assumptions about tariffs and the unpopularity of the "one big beautiful bill" — they are starting to see a path back to 51 seats.
• The focus of Schumer's current charm offensive is Peltola, the last Democrat to win a statewide election in Alaska, and one of just two Democrats to do so this century.
• Democrats want to convince her to challenge Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), who is up for reelection next year.

Zoom out: In New Hampshire and Georgia, the state's popular GOP governors both took passes on the Senate, disappointing many in the party.

• Schumer got who he wanted in Ohio with former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), and in North Carolina with former Gov. Roy Cooper (D).
• The more states Schumer puts in play, the more resources he will drain from national Republicans, who will have to spend heavily to retain their incumbents.

Zoom in: Democrats have been laying the foundation for a challenge of Sullivan.

• A group associated with a Schumer-linked PAC earlier this year spent more than $600,000 on digital ads bashing Sullivan. The spots focused on the GOP's tax and spending cut package.
• Alaska's unique ranked-choice voting helped Peltola win a special election in 2022. She received 40 percent of the first round votes, while her two GOP candidates divided the remaining 60 percent.
• But after former GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin was eliminated for coming in third place, more of her supporters listed Peltola as their second choice, giving her a majority victory with 51.5 percent.
• In 2024, House Republicans worked to ensure that only their top vote winner in the primary — who ended up being Rep. Nick Begich — would stay in the race. Begich beat Peltola on the second ballot.

Between the lines: Similar to the dynamic in Ohio, there are some Alaska Democrats who would prefer Peltola run for governor.

• Recent polling showed Peltola would be the front runner for governor if she decided to run. Reporting suggests she's considering a gubernatorial bid.
• It's unclear how interested Peltola is in a Senate run. She did not respond to emailed requests for comment.

— Hans Nichols and Stephen Neukam

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? Dems fear "vicious" primary

House Democrats are looking on in agony as Congressional Progressive Caucus chair Greg Casar (D-Texas) and Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) appear destined to duke it out for a single congressional district.

• "They are going to be vicious," one senior House Democrat told Axios, speaking on the condition of anonymity to offer candid thoughts on a sensitive internal battle.

Why it matters: It would pit a 36-year-old rising progressive star against a well-liked, 78-year-old stalwart of the left at a time when age is already one of Democrats' biggest headaches.

• "Most of us are TRYING to stay out," a senior House progressive wrote in a text to Axios.

Zoom in: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is unlikely to pick sides in this member vs. member race, sources told Axios.

• A Democratic leadership aide said there's a zero percent chance Jeffries weighs in.

State of play: Casar and Doggett would share a single Austin-based district under the new congressional map that Republican state legislators are proposing.

• Doggett, who has been repeatedly targeted by Republicans in redistricting during his more than 30 years in Congress, currently represents much of Austin and its suburbs.
• Casar, a former Austin city councilman first elected to Congress in 2022, represents parts of southern and eastern Austin in a district that snakes down to San Antonio.
• Under the new map, the Austin portions of Casar's district would be merged with Doggett's.

Both lawmakers are angling to run in the new 37th district, which would be heavily Democratic and centered in Austin.

• Doggett wrote Sunday that "over 2/3 of my current constituents will remain in the Trump configured CD37" and that his "seniority is an asset, not a liability."
• He urged Casar to "not abandon his reconfigured CD35, in which he is the only incumbent," noting it would be majority Hispanic and arguing that Casar could "use his organizing skills and populist message to win over the disaffected, particularly disaffected Hispanic voters."
• Casar's chief of staff Stephanie Trinh wrote yesterday that Doggett sent out his email "without discussing it with Greg or his team" and said it contained "incorrect information."

The bottom line: Casar is ruling out a run in the new 35th district, a San Antonio-area seat that voted for Trump by 10 percentage points and contains just a tenth of his current constituency.

— Andrew Solender

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Texas Democrats set plan to end nearly 2-week walkout over Republicans' redraw of US House maps August 14, 2025 The Democrats announced they will return so long as Texas Republicans end a special session and California releases its own redrawn map proposal, both of which were expected to happen Friday.

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??‍♂️ Skipping Mike Johnson

House Speaker Mike Johnson's right flank is trying to bypass him repeatedly next month by forcing votes on releasing the Epstein files and banning congressional stock trading.

Why it matters: The tool these members plan to use — the discharge petition — has been the source of growing controversy in the House.

• A discharge petition allows the House rank-and-file to force a vote on any piece of legislation if at least 218 members sign on.
• Top Republicans have discouraged the use of the maneuver, arguing it would effectively turn over control of the House floor to Democrats, but GOP populists have increasingly ignored that guidance.

State of play: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) wants to force a vote on Rep. Tim Burchett's (R-Tenn.) bill to ban members of Congress, their spouses and dependent children from trading or owning stocks.

• Tamping down congressional stock trading has been a cause célèbre for lawmakers in both parties for years, but congressional leaders have largely stonewalled their efforts to secure a vote.
• Another discharge petition from Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) on forcing the release of the Justice Department's documents on Jeffrey Epstein is set to trigger a vote within days of the House's return in September.

Between the lines: The Epstein petition is widely expected to obtain 218 signatures, with most Democrats and several right-wing Republicans likely to sign on.

• Luna's petition may be more contentious, sources said, as there have already been months of bipartisan negotiations around carefully crafting a stock trading bill that can pass with support from leadership.
• Several Democrats told us Luna may not get the support she needs to pass her bill unless she coordinates with that bipartisan group.

Luna previously secured 218 signatures this spring for a vote on allowing House members who are new parents to vote by proxy for up to three months, but the vote never came to pass.

• Johnson failed to procedurally kill the petition, then scrapped House votes until Luna agreed to a compromise.
• One House Republican involved in that saga, speaking on the condition of anonymity, predicted Johnson would have a tougher time trying to spike the Epstein and stock trading discharge petitions due to broad public interest.

Zoom out: The Epstein push is a clear revolt against both President Trump, who has dismissed the matter, and Johnson, who has called for transparency but quashed several rogue efforts to release the files.

• Johnson has indicated his support for a stock trading ban, but it's unclear if he would support doing so through a discharge petition that could undermine his authority.
• Trump has indicated support for a stock trading ban in theory, but opposed a bipartisan Senate bill that would have extended the ban to future presidents and vice presidents.
• A spokesperson for Johnson did not respond to a request for comment.

The bottom line: Both measures could also run aground in the Senate, which is less given to populist passions than the House and has a 60-vote threshold that makes it harder to pass legislation.

— Andrew Solender

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Dems' "Abundance" rift

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The trendy center-left "Abundance" movement is an early battlefield as Democrats brawl over the future of their brand, their party and their purpose, Axios' Alex Thompson writes. A growing number of left-wing politicians and thinkers are labeling it a clever rebrand by the party's corporate wing, which they blame for driving working-class voters from the party. Why it matters: The escalating feud is a preview of the 2028 presidential primary, as the Democratic Party grapples with its identity — including whether to moderate to attract independent voters, or counter Trumpism by leaning into progressive economic populism. ?️ The big picture: "Abundance" was popularized by this year's bestselling book of the same name by New York Times columnist Ezra Klein and journalist Derek Thompson, who just launched a Substack. The idea: Democrats have lost voters' trust because of governing failures in blue cities and states, and need to respond by cutting excess regulations to build more housing, energy projects and more. "Liberals speak as if they believe in government — and then pass policy after policy hamstringing what it can actually do," the authors wrote. As Democrats continue to reckon with how Donald Trump returned to the White House and the ongoing fallout from the 2024 elections, many in the party are enthusiastically embracing Abundance. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, signed legislation in June to change environmental rules to make it easier to build more housing. He posted on X that "we're urgently embracing an abundance agenda by tearing down the barriers that have delayed new affordable housing and infrastructure for decades." Tech billionaire and prolific Democratic donor Reid Hoffman said in late July that he's sending everyone he knows a copy of the book, and that he'll be backing pro-abundance candidates. ? Between the lines: The abundance buzz hasn't been universally accepted — and has drawn some backlash from the Democratic Party's left wing. Those Democrats argue: Getting rid of excessive regulations is good, but doesn't address — and in some ways could exacerbate — the more pressing issues of wealth inequality and corporate power. Voters are angry, and a deregulation agenda isn't a compelling political message.