Donald Trump has sweeping plans for a second administration. Here’s what he’s proposed

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Alcatraz

President Donald Trump has announced plans to rebuild and reopen Alcatraz to “house America’s most ruthless and violent Offenders.” In a post on his social media site, Trump said he was directing the Bureau of Prisons, the Department of Justice, the FBI and Homeland Security to reopen the infamous former prison. Located on an island off the San Francisco coast, Alcatraz closed in 1963 because it was too expensive to run. According to the Bureau of Prisons, it would take an estimated $3 million to $5 million to restore and maintain the prison — and that doesn’t include daily operating costs. Currently, Alcatraz serves as a tourist destination run by the National Park Service. In a conversation with reporters later Sunday, Trump appeared to downplay his post and said reopening Alcatraz was “just an idea” he had because of “radicalized judges” who want to ensure migrants being deported have due process.   Trump budget The White House has unveiled its budget blueprint, which highlights the president’s priorities of pumping more money into defense and homeland security while cutting foreign aid and domestic programs. The “skinny budget” would increase defense spending by 13% to $1 trillion. It also proposes providing $175 billion to “fully secure the border." To afford this, Trump’s budget recommends making additional cuts to the National Park Service, climate science research, foreign economic and disaster assistance, UN peacekeepers, certain education funding to schools, the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, the National Institutes of Health, the CDC, clean energy and EV charging programs, nuclear energy and waste management, rental assistance and the IRS.   Weather forecasting As the next hurricane season approaches, current and former meteorologists say the National Weather Service is in tatters. Since the start of Trump’s second term, the NWS has lost more than 550 people. With so much institutional knowledge gone, experts are worried that the nation’s forecasting agency will be unable to provide accurate forecasts and timely life-saving warnings. Of the NWS’ 122 weather forecast offices, 30 lack a chief meteorologist. Many of these offices are responsible for covering major population centers in Cleveland, Houston, New York City and Tampa. “The (meteorologists-in-charge) are the critical linchpin in the operation of our weather forecast offices,” said former NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad. Multiple offices have reduced or eliminated daily weather balloon launches, which provide critical data for computer models used by forecasters. And several NWS offices are expected to soon stop operating 24/7.

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The Trump Administration Is Hiding American Casualties of War

The Trump administration is fighting an undeclared war in Yemen, and it has not been shy about publicizing the details of its attacks.

https://theintercept.com/2025/05/02/trump-yemen-war-us-casualties-death-toll/?

Trump’s Pick for a Top Army Job Works at a Weapons Company — And Won’t Give Up His Stock

Mike Obadal’s plan to keep his stock in Anduril if nominated as under secretary of the Army is a blatant conflict of interest, experts say.

https://theintercept.com/2025/05/01/trump-army-anduril-mike-obadal-ethics/?

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? Big Tobacco’s woman on the inside. Former clients of the president’s new chief of staff Susie Wiles are now lobbying President Donald Trump for more favorable treatment, according to a damning new report by Public Citizen. Disclosures reveal that just since January, at least six of Wiles’ former corporate clients have lobbied the White House on policy — that includes tobacco firm Swisher International, which Wiles represented as recently as March 2024. Swisher has fought Food and Drug Administration rules meant to protect children from smoking the company’s flavored Swisher Sweets cigars and cigarillos.

? The corruption is in plain view. An upcoming Qatari economic conference sponsored by Bloomberg is hosting a panel discussion featuring Donald Trump Jr. and MAGA megadonor Omeed Malik, and it appears to be on how foreign investors can get their cut of the corruption. Originally named “Monetizing MAGA: Investing In Trump’s America,” the event’s description previously said Trump and Malik would discuss the “parallel economy” of “right-leaning” business ventures. After backlash, this description was rewritten, and the event appears to have been renamed just “Investing in America.”

? Antitrust lives on — for now. Citing backlash, Republicans have removed language from their upcoming budget reconciliation package that would have given the Federal Trade Commission’s independent antitrust enforcement authority to the Justice Department. The measure could have handicapped regulators from policing unfair methods of competition. House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan says he still wants to see the FTC stripped of its power and will introduce stand-alone legislation later in the session to do it.

? The kids are not all right. As lawmakers attempt to make the math work on their billionaire-friendly tax bill, they keep punching down. Congressional Republicans have floated a new proposal to strip the Child Tax Credit from children who are U.S. citizens if their parents do not have Social Security numbers. A new study by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, copublished with other organizations, found that 4.5 million child citizens would lose access to the credit under this proposal.

• The child tax credit is one of the U.S.’s most effective tools to keep children out of poverty. During the pandemic, when the child tax credit was available to more families, it reduced child poverty by about 30 percent, particularly for Black and Latino children — who are now most vulnerable to the rollbacks.

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Trump says he’s going to reopen Alcatraz prison. Doing so would be difficult and costly

President Donald Trump says he is directing his government to reopen and expand Alcatraz, the notorious former prison on a hard-to-reach California island off San Francisco that has been closed for more than 60 years. Read More.

Trump administration says it will pay immigrants in the United States illegally $1,000 to go home

Pushing forward with its mass deportation agenda, President Donald Trump’s administration said Monday that it would pay $1,000 to immigrants who are in the United States illegally and return to their home country voluntarily. Read More.

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Is Starlink's Rapid Global Expansion Due to Elon's Abuse of Power?

Musk is reportedly using his influence in the Trump administration to secure Starlink's entry in several foreign countries. Critics say that's a 'profound breach of public trust.'

https://www.pcmag.com/news/senators-call-for-investigation-into-elon-musks-foreign-starlink-push?

Trump administration to pay $1,000 to self-deporting undocumented immigrants

The Trump administration is offering $1,000 stipends and travel assistance to undocumented immigrants who "self-deport," the Department of Homeland Security said on Monday.

https://www.axios.com/2025/05/05/trump-deportation-stipend-money-homeland-security?

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Sudden Deference (Rebecca Noble / Getty)

View in browser Perhaps no president—including the ones with law degrees—has spent as much time around attorneys as Donald Trump. As a young man, he was infamously mentored by the ruthless Roy Cohn. Throughout his career, he’s used litigation as a tool of business, public relations, and intimidation. Trump chews through lawyers at high speed, frequently because they either can’t or, for ethical reasons, won’t do the things he demands. Given his typical view of the law as a tool, it’s strange to see the president suddenly acting so deferential to legal advice. Several times in an interview with Meet the Press this weekend, Trump hid behind attorneys rather than answer difficult questions. The host, Kristen Welker, first asked Trump whether he was defying the Supreme Court’s order by not working harder to return Kilmar Abrego Garcia to the United States. “No. I’m relying on the attorney general of the United States, Pam Bondi, who’s very capable, doing a great job,” he said. “Because I’m not involved in the legality or the illegality. I have lawyers to do that, and that’s why I have a great DOJ.” Next, Welker asked whether Trump agreed with Secretary of State (among other things) Marco Rubio that all people in the United States deserve due process. This isn’t exactly a gotcha question, and yet Trump punted: “I don’t know. I’m not a lawyer.” Her next question was even easier. “Don’t you need to uphold the Constitution of the United States as president?” This is in the oath of office he’s taken twice, and yet he replied, “I don’t know. I have to respond by saying, again, I have brilliant lawyers that work for me, and they are going to obviously follow what the Supreme Court said.” Later, she asked Trump about his attempts to use the IRS to investigate Harvard and revoke its tax-exempt status, which Harvard and legal experts say is illegal. “Well, I tell you, I’m going to just follow what the lawyers say,” he said. “They say that we’re allowed to do that, and I’m all for it.” Trump said something similar to my colleagues Jeffrey Goldberg, Ashley Parker, and Michael Scherer in a recent Oval Office interview, in which they asked about his idea of sending American citizens to be imprisoned in El Salvador. “I said ‘if,’ ‘if,’ in terms of foreign prison, ‘if it’s legal,’ and I always say ‘if it’s legal,’” he said. “If it was legal to do—and nobody’s given me a definitive answer on that—but if it was legal to do, I would have no problem with moving them out of the country into a foreign jail, which would cost a lot less money.” The law is complicated, and any wise president would consult good attorneys, but if someone is not ready to make basic judgments about the Constitution, perhaps he should not run to lead the branch of government that executes federal laws. Trump’s supposed deference is particularly striking at this moment: On the one hand, his administration has embarked on one of the largest power grabs in American history, seizing authority that no president has ever claimed before and using the executive branch as a tool of retribution. On the other hand, he’s traipsing onto Meet the Press pretending that he’s just a simple policy maker at the mercies of the nerds with the case law. This is balderdash, naturally. Trump understands very well that the law can be political, and he’s consistently demanded that the lawyers who work for him not apply it neutrally. During his first term, he raged at administration attorneys who he felt were too eager to defend the law and the institutions of government at his expense. “Where’s my Roy Cohn?” he demanded. For his second term, he attempted to appoint an attorney general, Matt Gaetz, who was so unqualified that even congressional Republicans couldn’t go along with it, leaving him to nominate Bondi. Since her confirmation, she and Trump have worked to tear down the traditional independence of the Justice Department—the very thing that insulates its lawyers from political interference. DOJ’s pardon attorney was reportedly fired for opposing the restoration of gun rights for Trump’s friend Mel Gibson. Career attorneys were fired at Trump’s behest, without clear explanation, and the department slashed its Public Integrity Section. Trump directed the DOJ to investigate ActBlue, the major Democratic fundraising platform. He’s also pushed lawyers out elsewhere, such as in the Defense Department. Meanwhile, Trump has worked systematically to intimidate major law firms. For some, he has twisted their arm into humiliating agreements that involve providing huge quantities of free legal work for causes he supports. He’s tried to punish those that refuse, though late on Friday, a federal judge permanently blocked his order targeting the law firm Perkins Coie. “No American President has ever before issued executive orders like the one at issue in this lawsuit,” Judge Beryl Howell wrote. In short: The order was neither the action of a man who believes lawyers are neutral nor that of one who is deferential to the law. Trump’s supposed uncertainty in these interviews is not a sign of restraint. The president cannot both attempt to grab power and pass the buck. Whether to follow the Constitution is a decision for him, not for some lawyer. Related: Read The Atlantic’s interview with Donald Trump. The destruction of the Department of Justice

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? Trump's everything menu on taxes

The White House is signaling to GOP lawmakers that President Trump's massive tax package isn't an a la carte menu: It's a prix-fixe meal. Why it matters: While officials want the "one big, beautiful bill" to include all of Trump's tax priorities, they plan to make extending his 2017 tax package the centerpiece of their messaging campaign, according to an administration official. The plan is to use the threat of tax increases for all Americans to convince Congress to pass all of their tax proposals. Zoom in: The only concession the White House is making on cost is to offer shorter time horizons for some of Trump's business-friendly tax cuts. Go deeper — Hans Nichols

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Trump's new nationalism

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images

President Trump's grand economic vision relies on a simple tradeoff: Americans will accept short-term personal sacrifice — higher prices, fewer options, slimmer profits — to gain long-term national strength, Axios' Zachary Basu writes. Why it matters: Trump is breaking sharply from free-market orthodoxy in his second term, blending bursts of anti-capitalism with a top-down, nationalist agenda for American dominance. Critics on the left and right are labeling this "MAGA Maoism" — a movement that demands ideological purity, glorifies economic sacrifice, and embraces state power as a means to reshape society. Trump's strongman instincts, and his deep skepticism of cultural elites and bureaucrats, have only intensified comparisons to China's revolutionary leader. ?️ What they're saying: "MAGA Maoism is spreading through the populist right," former congressional speechwriter Rotimi Adeoye wrote for The Washington Post last month. James Surowiecki, the first journalist to deduce that the White House used trade deficits to calculate its reciprocal tariffs, argued Monday that Trumpism is "becoming perversely, farcically Maoist." Drew Pavlou, an Australian anti-communism activist, wrote on Substack that "the entire world is now held hostage to Trump and his primitive, strangely Maoist worldview." ? Reality check: Trump's worldview is driven not by Marxist theory, but by a deeply held belief that America has been getting ripped off for decades. He's constrained by the rule of law, unlike China's totalitarian state — and there's no comparison to the mass death and violence committed by Mao Zedong's communist regime. Plus, much of Trump's agenda remains pro-capitalist: He champions private industry, not state ownership. His appeals to sacrifice are rooted in geopolitical competition, not class struggle. A football honoring President Trump sits on the Resolute Desk during an Oval Office event yesterday announcing that the 2027 NFL draft will be in D.C. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images But listen to recent rhetoric from Trump, and it's clear why the analogy has gained traction. "We are a department store, and we set the price," Trump told TIME when asked about tariff rates. "I meet with the companies, and then I set a fair price ... and they can pay it, or they don't have to pay it." ?️ The big picture: Trump's embrace of centralized economic power is one piece of a governing style that borrows heavily from strongman traditions. Ritualistic praise: Trump's televised Cabinet meetings always begin with his secretaries showering him in praise — casting the president as the only leader capable of restoring America's greatness. Loyalty tests: Trump and his aides have carried out mass purges of career officials deemed insufficiently loyal, including at the Justice Department and Pentagon, and in the U.S. intelligence community. Civil society: Trump has sought retribution against the media, law firms, nonprofits and political opponents. Some Chinese see echoes of the Cultural Revolution, when nearly all of society's institutions were destroyed. War on academia: The Trump administration has cracked down on dozens of universities over alleged antisemitism and DEI programs, moving to weaken elite liberal institutions seen as hostile to MAGA. Military spectacle: The Pentagon plans to host a massive military parade in D.C. on Trump's birthday in June, coinciding with the Army's 250th anniversary. AP says plans show the parade could include 6,600 soldiers, 150 vehicles and 50 helicopters, and could cost tens of millions of dollars.

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?️ Hollywood's hell scenario

Data: Gower Street, Comscore. Chart: Sara Wise/Axios President Trump's threat to impose tariffs on film imports to the U.S. could risk retaliatory actions in international markets, where American film studios make the bulk of their box office revenue, Axios Media Trends author Sara Fischer writes. Why it matters: Studios are already reeling from a weakened box office following the pandemic. Tariffs could send the industry into a tailspin. ? How it works: The U.S. is the top exporter of films globally by far, with export value running at three times imports, according to the Motion Picture Association. U.S. movie studios typically drive the bulk of global box office sales. The majority of their revenue tends to come from distribution outside of the U.S., which is why any sort of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. film exports would be disastrous for Hollywood. Case in point: The top-grossing movie globally last year, "Inside Out 2," was produced by U.S.-based entertainment giant Disney. But the bulk (61.6%) of its $1.7 billion in box office revenue was made abroad. Similarly, 56% of global ticket sales to Warner Bros. Pictures' "Barbie," the top-grossing film the year before, came from international distribution. Keep reading.

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✂️ Trump cuts off Harvard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The Education Department barred Harvard from receiving new federal grant funding unless it meets a series of Trump administration demands, Axios' Sareen Habeshian writes. Education Secretary Linda McMahon said in a letter to Harvard president Alan Garber yesterday that the university "should no longer seek GRANTS from the federal government since none will be provided." "If Harvard prefers not to change, then Harvard should have no problem using its overflowing endowment to fund its bloated bureaucracy," she wrote. Harvard is suing the Trump administration. Keep reading.

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Trump administration asks judge to toss suit restricting access to abortion medication  The Trump administration on Monday asked a judge to toss out a lawsuit from three Republican-led states seeking to cut off telehealth access to abortion medication mifepristone. Read more.

Why this matters: Justice Department attorneys stayed the legal course charted by the Biden administration, though they didn’t directly weigh in on the underlying issue of access to the drug that’s part of the nation’s most common method of abortion. Rather, the government argued the states don’t have the legal right, or standing, to sue.   Trump told Time magazine in December he would not restrict access to abortion medication. The case is being considered by U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk in Texas, a Trump nominee who once ruled in favor of halting approval for the drug.   The lawsuit from Idaho, Kansas, and Missouri, filed last year, argues that the Food and Drug Administration should roll back access to mifepristone. They want the FDA to prohibit telehealth prescriptions for mifepristone, require three in-office visits and restrict the point in a pregnancy when it can be used.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ Michigan governor candidate says miscarriage prompted her to prioritize reproductive health access   Texas Senate OKs effort to clarify medical exceptions under state’s abortion ban   An emboldened anti-abortion faction wants women who have abortions to face criminal charges

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? DOGE’s clandestine tax cut for billionaires is coming. More than 11,000 employees of the Internal Revenue Service, about 11 percent of its total workforce, have parted ways with the agency since February 2025, according to a new internal report. IRS employees who audit the wealthiest taxpayers were among the hardest hit: The agency unit that inspects billionaires has lost 38 percent of its team since January, even though tax evasion by the nation’s superrich already amounts to $150 billion in lost annual revenue.

?  Are you gonna drink that? Maybe not for long: President Donald Trump’s budget nearly eliminates federal funding for clean water initiatives in the United States. The new plan proposes cutting funding by 89 percent for the usually bipartisan-backed Clean Water and Drinking Water State Revolving Fund programs, effectively eliminating $2.46 billion allocated to help states fund capital-intensive public water projects.

• The cuts are particularly devastating for small, rural communities that already struggle to fund these projects — and lack access to clean water. An estimated 2 million people in the U.S. currently live without adequate wastewater infrastructure or safe and reliable drinking water in their homes.

✈️ Deportation flights hacked. Anonymous obstructionists have hacked into the systems of GlobalX Air, a private plane charter firm contracted to carry out deportations with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Hackers, who also took over GlobalX’s public website, say they stole passenger records and flight data from the company, which recently oversaw the deportation of hundreds of migrants to El Salvador. This comes after a Trump-appointed federal judge ruled that the president’s invocation of the Alien Enemies Act to justify sweeping deportations is illegal. 

• As reported previously in The Lever, several private charter flight companies are seeing a major windfall from ICE deportation contracts since Trump’s return to office. GlobalX says its ICE contract will bring in $65 million of additional annual revenue.

CHART OF THE DAY

“[Trump’s] budget would make significant cuts to nearly every cabinet agency — but not all of them.” (Source: The New York Times / Center for American Progress)

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Big Oil executives are off the hook. The Trump administration is gearing up to exonerate oil executives who allegedly colluded with foreign governments to inflate gas prices. Trump’s Federal Trade Commission took the first steps last month to lift restrictions imposed on two Chevron and Exxon executives after they showered Trumpworld with donations and petitioned regulators for forgiveness. 

Remember the rule of law? Under former chair Lina Khan, the FTC banned Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Oil, from joining the board of Exxon, which had recently acquired his company. A few months later, the agency blocked the CEO of Hess Oil, John Hess, from taking a position at Chevron after the two companies merged. The agency found evidence suggesting Sheffield and Hess separately colluded with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a cartel of producers largely from the Middle East, to keep oil supply low and prices high following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. 

Promises made, promises kept. Oil and gas executives were incensed that regulators would punish two industry titans. At a campaign fundraiser last year, Trump personally promised irate oil executives that he’d treat them more favorably after several complained about the FTC’s intrusive meddling in their merger and acquisition deals. Trump received $96 million from fossil fuel interests overall last election cycle, one of his top sources of fundraising. Weeks into Trump’s second term, Chevron submitted its petition to the FTC advocating that Hess be reinstated after contributing $2 million to the president’s inauguration fund. 

It pays off to spend big. Shortly after the FTC banned Hess and Sheffield from serving on their fossil fuel companies’ boards, political contributions from the two men, their family members, business associates, and companies started pouring in.

• Sheffield is a longtime rainmaker in Texas GOP politics, having spent $4.1 million in federal and state elections since 2020, alongside big donations from his company and his son, Bryan Sheffield. Weeks after the FTC punished his father, the younger Sheffield — who in 2021 sold his own oil company to his dad — gave $413,000 to a Republican National Committee fund designed to boost the Trump campaign.
• Hess has been a Trump backer since his first presidential run, and his company gave $1 million to the President’s first inaugural committee. Hess was later named to Trump's Opening the Country Council in 2020 for post-pandemic economic recovery.

Reporting contributed by Luke Goldstein.

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Millions of People Depend on the Great Lakes’ Water Supply. Trump Decimated the Lab Protecting It.

The Trump administration’s slashing of budgets and staff have Great Lakes scientists concerned that they have lost the ability to protect the public from toxic algal blooms, which can kill animals and sicken people.

https://www.propublica.org/article/noaa-michigan-lab-toxic-algae-blooms-great-lakes-drinking-water?

Internal VA Emails Reveal How Trump Cuts Jeopardize Veterans’ Care, Including To “Life-Saving Cancer Trials”

Despite a congressional mandate to expand care for veterans, internal Veterans Affairs messages obtained by ProPublica paint a stark portrait of how chaotic cost cutting has already imperiled tests of treatments for cancer, opioid addiction and more.

https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-veterans-affairs-budget-staff-cuts-jeopardize-cancer-research?

The Latest Trump and DOGE Casualty: Energy Data

The Trump administration has eliminated or stifled critical data at dozens of federal agencies. Now the administration’s actions are hitting a new realm: the energy industry.

https://www.propublica.org/article/the-latest-trump-and-doge-casualty-energy-data?

‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs Will Concentrate Wealth Even More

Import taxes will be passed onto the consumer, while the rich will prosper from slashed taxes.

https://inequality.org/article/liberation-day-tariffs-will-concentrate-wealth-even-more/?

2025 Is Shaping up to Be a Banner Year for Global Oligarchs

The ranks of global billionaires has grown by 247 in the past year, bringing up the total worldwide to 3,028, according to Forbes’ annual survey of the wealthy published April 1.

https://inequality.org/article/2025-is-shaping-up-to-be-a-banner-year-for-global-oligarchs/?

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Canadian Prime Minister Carney rebuffs Trump’s push to make Canada the 51st state

U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney faced off in the Oval Office on Tuesday and showed no signs of retreating from their gaping differences in an ongoing trade war that has shattered decades of trust between the two countries. Read More.

Supreme Court allows Trump ban on transgender members of the military to take effect, for now

The Supreme Court on Tuesday allowed President Donald Trump’s administration to enforce a ban on transgender people in the military, while legal challenges proceed. The policy presumptively disqualifies transgender people from military service and could lead to the expulsion of experienced, decorated officers. Read More.

Key Republican says he won't back Trump's pick for top DC prosecutor because of Jan. 6 ties

Republican Sen. Thom Tillis says he’s informed the White House that he won’t support Donald Trump’s pick for top federal prosecutor in Washington, stalling the nomination in the Senate weeks before the temporary appointment expires. Read More.   Trump may lose his D.C. attack dog President Trump is at risk of losing his pick for a top attack dog in D.C. — and his base is furious about it. Ed Martin, Trump's nominee to be the top federal prosecutor in the District, may not have enough votes to be confirmed by the Senate. ⚖️ Martin has been a Swiss Army knife for Trump's agenda — threatening Wikipedia over biased "propaganda," pursuing DOGE critics, and promising to "Make D.C. Safe Again," Axios D.C.'s Cuneyt Dil writes. But Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told reporters today he has issues with Martin's leniency toward Jan. 6 rioters — a potentially fatal blow to a nomination that was already on thin ice. ? The fierce and swift backlash underscores the GOP base's readiness to punish Republicans who cross Trump — particularly over someone who is as much of a MAGA knife fighter as Martin, Axios' Tal Axelrod reports. "Tillis is handing this critical post to the Democrats," MAGA podcaster Charlie Kirk posted on X. The National Pulse, a Trump-supportive outlet, published a piece dubbing Tillis a "traitor" over his opposition. ?️ White House spokesperson Alex Pfeiffer told Axios after Tillis' comments that Matin "is the right man for the job and we look forward to his confirmation." Go deeper.

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U.S. will stop bombing Yemen after Houthis "capitulated," Trump says

President Trump said Tuesday that Yemen's Houthi rebels had "capitulated" and told the U.S. they will stop attacking ships in the Red Sea. The Houthis refuted that characterization.

https://www.axios.com/2025/05/06/houthi-ceasefire-trump-yemen-attacks?

ps:We'll see!!!!!

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2025 or Bust

View in browser

To my embarrassment, I’ve never understood the mechanics of Congress as deeply as I’d like. In the past few weeks, I’ve struggled to parse the incremental developments in Republicans’ “One Big Beautiful Bill”—that’s actually what they’re calling it now—to enact as much of President Donald Trump’s agenda as they can. Usually, when I get confused about Capitol Hill, I call my colleague Russell Berman for guidance. Yesterday, he published a story on the “significant risk” (as the economist Mark Zandi described it) that congressional GOP moves could crash the economy. I spoke with him to understand where we are and how to know where we’re going.

David A. Graham: Do I really need to pay attention to Congress right now?

Russell Berman: Yes, you do. Even though Trump has gone around Congress in many ways, Republicans are now debating a bill that is, in scale and potential impact on the deficit, much larger than anything we’ve seen in the past few years. This bill would extend the 2017 Trump tax cuts at a cost to taxpayers of some $5 trillion. It would surge funding for Trump’s southern-border plan. It would increase military spending. It might reduce or eliminate taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits. It’s a really big deal, and it’s a big question mark whether and when they might get it done, in large part because the GOP can’t agree on how—or even whether—to offset that $5 trillion price tag.

David: Remind me why it has to be one big, beautiful bill.

Russell: It doesn’t. The Republicans in the Senate initially wanted to just give Trump his border funding and increase defense funding, and save the extension of the tax cuts for a second piece of legislation. In the House, the Republicans were concerned that it’s hard enough to pass one bill. Eventually, Trump sided with the House, but if they reach an impasse, the next step probably is to break it up into multiple pieces of legislation.

David: Given how much control Trump seems to have over Congress, why can’t the White House just tell them what to put in the bill and pass that?

Russell: Trump is not that interested in Congress. At many points during this process, Republican leaders have looked to him for leadership, and time and again, the president has said, Whatever, you all figure it out. They can’t figure it out, but they need to reach an impasse for Trump to get involved and use his political weight.

David: Where are the Democrats in all this? Are they relevant at all?

Russell: The short answer is no, because the Republicans, just as the Democrats did under Joe Biden, are using the process known as reconciliation, which will get them around a filibuster in the Senate. Democrats, frankly, are pretty happy to just sit back and throw darts from the sidelines.

David: Your story makes it seem like the options here are either a success that threatens to tank the economy or a failure that tanks Trump’s agenda and also possibly the economy. Is there another option?

Russell: The third option is to do a more fiscally responsible bill, which would extend the tax cuts but offset them with either spending cuts or tax increases elsewhere. But that’s not likely to pass, because Republicans do not like tax increases of any kind, so what happens is usually just deficit-inflating tax cuts. If that were to happen this time, economists are telling me it could precipitate even more of an economic collapse. If the 2017 tax cuts were to expire at the end of the year, that would be a big tax increase on basically everybody at a time when, because of Trump’s tariffs, the economy may be heading toward a recession—or will already be in one.

David: For people who struggle to follow every twist of this process, what can we watch for as an indication of where we’re headed?

Russell: The things that we don’t know are: Are they going to touch Medicaid? Are they going to be able to get these additional Trump tax cuts in the bill? Are they going to be able to raise the debt limit in this bill? If they don’t increase the debt limit, you would have a potentially catastrophic default by the United States government, or Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader John Thune would have to go to the Democrats to say, Help us again.

David: It seems like there are perpetually warnings of doom for congressional Republicans trying to pass legislation, and every time, Johnson pulls a rabbit out of a hat. Why would this time be different?

Russell: I wouldn’t bet against them passing a bill, but there are all of these fail points, where if they reach an impasse over Medicaid, the particular nature of the tax cuts, or whether and how to pay for it at all—that’s where we could see things collapse. They could just resort to extending the tax cuts and nothing else, which wouldn’t accomplish a large part of Trump's agenda, but it would forestall a tax increase.

David: And because they’re using reconciliation, is the expectation that whatever they don’t pass now is not going to happen in this Congress?

Russell: The assumption is that a president really has a year and a half, because then you get into the midterm campaign, and it’s hard to pass anything at that point anyway. In this case, it’s even more condensed, because they have that deadline of the looming tax increase at the end of the year. It really is 2025 or bust.

Related:

• The “significant risk” that Republicans tank the economy
• The missing branch

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Ending Energy Star

Sources tell CNN that the Trump administration is preparing to eliminate Environmental Protection Agency divisions focused on climate change and energy efficiency. That could doom the Energy Star program, which certifies appliances to help consumers get tax credits and save money. ps: Genius at work here!!!!!   Toy tariffs Mattel, the maker of Barbie, announced plans to raise prices on American toys because of tariffs. Nearly 80% of all toys sold in the US are manufactured in China, which was hit with 145% tariffs. ps:More genius at work here!!!!!

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The unlawful abduction and imprisonment of Kilmar Abrego Garcia puts all workers in peril

The Trump administration’s unlawful removal of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia to a prison in El Salvador—and willful defiance of court orders to facilitate his return—are demonstrating a flagrant disregard for due process that puts all U.S. residents in danger. The case has become the biggest test of the rule of law so far in the second Trump administration and illustrates the threats now facing all working people if the administration’s abuses of power are left unchecked.

https://www.epi.org/blog/the-unlawful-abduction-and-imprisonment-of-kilmar-abrego-garcia-puts-all-workers-in-peril/?

Children Facing Deportation Alone: The Crisis We Cannot Ignore

Every year, thousands of children make the perilous journey to the United States alone, seeking safety and refuge. These children, known as unaccompanied minors, arrive at our borders without a parent or legal guardian. Many are fleeing violence, gang recruitment, human trafficking, and extreme poverty in countries like Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. Others are escaping abusive family environments or persecution. Despite their youth, they risk their lives in hopes of finding safety and stability in a new country.

https://utahchildren.org/newsroom/speaking-of-kids-blog/children-facing-deportation-alone-the-crisis-we-cannot-ignore?

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? Companies fear worker raids

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Bettmann/Getty Images

The Trump administration's immigration crackdown is sparking employer worries over workplace raids and staffing challenges, Axios' Emily Peck writes from a new survey of executives out this morning. Why it matters: A drastic reduction in immigration could lead to labor shortages, especially in some critical roles — building houses, taking care of the growing elderly population, or staffing farms and meatpacking plants. ? By the numbers: 75% of executives surveyed by the employment law firm Littler said the administration's immigration policies were among their top concerns — the only other topic that drew more worry was diversity, equity and inclusion policy. 70% of executives said they expect immigration enforcement actions from ICE and DHS will have a significant or moderate impact on their workplaces over the next 12 months. 58% expressed concern that Trump's immigration policies will create staffing challenges. Companies in manufacturing and hospitality expressed even more worries. Littler surveyed 349 executives at U.S. firms from late February to mid-March — 60% in-house lawyers, and the rest HR or others in the C-suite. Nearly three-quarters of the execs surveyed are at companies with more than 1,001 workers.

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₿ Congress erupts over Trump's crypto deal

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

A $2 billion crypto deal involving President Trump's family and a foreign government is threatening to derail bipartisan legislation that Congress has been working on for months, Axios' Zachary Basu writes. Why it matters: Democrats see the potential for gob-smacking corruption in Trump's lucrative crypto projects, which they consider to be the clearest conflicts of interest in a sea of new business ventures launched by the president and his inner circle. The Trump family's crypto dealings could now jeopardize legislation on stablecoins — digital tokens designed to hold a steady value — that the crypto industry has aggressively lobbied for as a way to gain legitimacy and legal clarity in the U.S. Senate Democrats also unveiled a sweeping new proposal yesterday to ban presidents, lawmakers and their families from issuing, endorsing or sponsoring crypto assets, Axios' Stephen Neukam scooped. Between the lines: Democrats have long accused Trump and his family of profiting from the presidency. But on two particularly brazen crypto projects, Trumpworld may have flown too close to the sun: The official website for Trump's meme coin invited its top 220 investors to an "intimate private dinner" with the president later this month, with a "VIP White House Tour" offered to the top 25 holders. References to the White House were later scrubbed from the website. World Liberty Financial, the Trump family's crypto venture, announced that an Emirati state-backed venture fund would use World Liberty's new stablecoin to complete a $2 billion investment in crypto exchange Binance. Keep reading.

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? Trump's new gulf salvo

President Trump plans to announce while on his trip to Saudi Arabia next week that the U.S. will now refer to the Persian Gulf as the Arabian Gulf or the Gulf of Arabia, AP's Matt Lee reports.

• A source confirms for Axios that the idea has been discussed.

Today is Day 108 of Trump's term. On Day 1, Trump proclaimed that the Gulf of Mexico would be officially called the Gulf of America.

• In addition to Saudi Arabia, Trump's first foreign trip of this term (aside from Pope Francis' funeral) also includes Doha, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, which also lie on the body of water.

?️ The backstory: Arab nations have pushed for a change to the geographic name of the body of water off the southern coast of Iran.

• The Persian Gulf has been widely known by that name since the 16th century. Usage of "Gulf of Arabia" and "Arabian Gulf" is dominant in many countries in the Middle East.

On Google Maps in the U.S., the body of water appears as Persian Gulf (Arabian Gulf). On Apple Maps, it's just Persian Gulf.

• The U.S. military for years has unilaterally referred to the Persian Gulf as the Arabian Gulf in statements and images it releases.

Reality check: Trump can change the name for official U.S. purposes, but can't dictate what the rest of the world calls it.

 

☢️ Scoop: Trump plans nuclear power push

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The White House is planning executive action soon to try to speed nuclear reactors' deployment, Daniel Moore scoops in Axios Pro: Energy Policy ($). Why it matters: One or more orders will likely lean heavily on the Defense and Energy Departments as a way to meet soaring energy demand. The administration views the Pentagon — with its deep pockets, massive energy demand, and ability to absorb risks in ways the private sector can't — as a "key enabler" for nuclear. The plans have been in the works for weeks and could drop any day, sources said.

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Declassified US intelligence memo contradicts Trump’s claims linking gang to Venezuelan government The assessment confirms that analysts at American spy agencies found no coordination between Tren de Aragua, a gang that originated in a prison in Venezuela, and the Venezuelan government, contradicting statements the Trump administration used to justify invoking the Alien Enemies Act and deporting Venezuelan immigrants. Read more.

Why this matters: The redacted memo from the National Intelligence Council said there was no indication that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro or other senior government officials are directing the actions of Tren de Aragua. It however noted that FBI analysts had reason to believe some Venezuelan officials may have helped some gang members move to the U.S. and other countries “to advance what they see as the Maduro regime’s goal of destabilizing governments and undermining public safety.”   Trump has invoked the Alien Enemies Act, an 18th-century wartime law, to speed up the deportations of people his administration has labeled members of the gang. Two federal judges have found that Trump is improperly using the Alien Enemies Act and barred the administration from removing immigrants under it.   A spokesperson for Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, rejected claims that the assessment contradicted the White House and noted that it did find some ties between mid- and low-level officials in Maduro’s government and the gang. Democrats in Congress welcomed the assessment’s release and questioned why Gabbard has supported Trump’s justification for deportations, given her knowledge of the assessment.

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ In one day, two separate judges rule Trump improperly used Alien Enemies Act against gang   NYPD launches probe into why it gave a Palestinian woman’s sealed arrest records to ICE   A man with an open asylum case was deported. His lawyers want to know if there are others   Trump says only 21 hostages held by Hamas in Gaza now believed to be alive   Fighter jet landing on USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier goes overboard, forcing pilots to eject   Trump says the US will stop bombing Yemen’s Houthis after rebels say they’ll stop targeting ships   Trump plans to announce the US will call the Persian Gulf the Arabian Gulf, officials tell AP   Columbia University lays off nearly 180 after Trump pulled $400M over his antisemitism concerns   Judge expresses sympathy for fired federal workers but questions if reinstatement is proper remedy   Report finds big drop in FBI’s use of intelligence database to search for information on Americans   US Embassy warns of mass shooting threat in Honduras   Judge bars Trump administration from shrinking agencies that fund libraries, settle labor disputes   Vice chair of the National Transportation Safety Board is unexpectedly removed from position   Thousands march over concern Panama bending to US government   Federal Reserve to face tough balancing act between fighting inflation and lifting growth   US trade deficit hits record high as businesses, consumers try to get ahead of Trump tariffs   Court upholds racketeering convictions of ex-Ohio House speaker and lobbyist in $60M bribery scheme   Pennsylvania governor’s residence to get an ‘anti-climb’ fence

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Trump Taps Refugee Fund To Welcome White South Africans Within Days

As President Donald Trump tries to bar almost all refugees from entering the country, his administration is planning to use federal funds reserved for sick, elderly, and at-risk refugee populations to facilitate an influx of white South Africans within days, according to a government source and an internal memo viewed by The Lever.

https://www.levernews.com/trump-taps-refugee-fund-to-welcome-white-south-africans-within-days/?

ps:Doesn't that just say it all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Trump is enabling Musk and DOGE to flout conflicts of interest

What is the potential cost to U.S. families?

https://www.epi.org/publication/trump-is-enabling-musk-and-doge-to-flout-conflicts-of-interest-what-is-the-potential-cost-to-u-s-families/?

House Republicans push to sell thousands of acres of public lands in the West

House Republicans have added a provision to their sweeping tax cut package that would authorize the sale of thousands of acres of public lands in Nevada and Utah. Read More.

Trump plans to announce that the US will call the Persian Gulf the Arabian Gulf, officials say

President Donald Trump plans to announce while on his trip to Saudi Arabia next week that the United States will now refer to the Persian Gulf as the Arabian Gulf or the Gulf of Arabia, according to two U.S. officials. Read More.