Stock & Bull Markets

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? Charted: Not-so-Magnificent 7

Data: FactSet. Chart: Axios Visuals A further sell-off yesterday took the market into unusual territory: All of the Magnificent 7 stocks are now down for the year, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes. Why it matters: The so-called Mag 7 led the market for the past two years. Their weakness in 2025 isn't helping with the broader correction in stocks. ? By the numbers: Of the seven — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla — Meta was the last holdout. It's now down 0.5% for the year, with most of the rest down about 10% to 15% — except for Tesla. Elon Musk's EV maker is off 44% in 2025 with unique issues of its own.

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? 25 years ago: Dot-com bubble bursts

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Twenty-five years ago this week, "the roughly five-year dot-com bubble popped, leaving trillions of dollars of investment losses in its wake," Bloomberg reports. The S&P 500 hit a new record on March 24, 2000 (25 years ago today), that it wouldn't touch again for about seven years. The tech-heavy Nasdaq hit its high-water mark three days later — for the last time until 2015. ? Zoom in: "Those peaks marked the end of an electric run that started with the blowout initial public offering for Netscape" in 1995, Bloomberg notes. The S&P 500 almost tripled between August 1995 and March 2000. The Nasdaq rose eight-fold. "By October 2002, more than 80% of the Nasdaq's value was gone, and the S&P 500 was essentially cut in half." Go deeper.

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Dow closes more than 700 points lower and the S&P 500 is on track for its worst quarter since 2022

US stocks tumbled Friday and a broad selloff gripped Wall Street as investors digested slightly stubborn inflation data and weakening consumer sentiment while wrestling with continued tariff anxiety.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/28/investing/us-stocks-tariff-uncertainty-volatility/index.html?

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? Stocks stank in Q1

Data: FactSet. Chart: Axios Visuals Tariff uncertainty and recession fears just drove U.S. stocks to one of their worst quarters in years, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes. Why it matters: A sharp decline in stocks used to be enough to get President Trump to change his policy positions — but these are different times. Front pages of today's Wall Street Journal, Financial Times ? By the numbers: The S&P 500 ended the first quarter down 4.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 10.4% and the broad Russell 3000 fell 5%. It was the worst performance since mid-2022 for all three. The intrigue: U.S. stocks badly underperformed the world to start the year.

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CHART OF THE DAY

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged over 1,500 points on the opening of Trump’s “Liberation Day” (Source: Google Finance).

Since the start of the year, the Dow Jones has sunk 4.1 percent, the S&P 500 is down 7.3 percent, and the Nasdaq has tumbled 13 percent.

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Stocks crater

Data: Financial Modeling Prep; Chart: Axios Visuals The reality of President Trump's new tariffs hit the U.S. economy like a truck today — and it may just be the beginning. The S&P 500 ended down 4.8%, its biggest one-day drop since June 2020. The Nasdaq was off 6%, its worst decline since March 2020. ? Threat level: Retailers and tech companies took a particularly bad beating. Apple and Amazon, two of tech's "Magnificent 7," were both down more than 9%. Among the biggest drops in the S&P 500 were Dell, Best Buy, Ralph Lauren and Norwegian Cruise Lines. All lost more than 15%. ? Our thought bubble, from Ben Berkowitz, Axios' managing editor for business: The stock market is not the economy, but the reaction is an early, visceral demonstration of the fear the public has over rising prices, slowing growth and the possibility of a recession. Go deeper.

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No relief in sight

Data: Financial Modeling Prep; Chart: Axios Visuals Markets continued their free fall for a second straight day today, while the Fed indicated it's not likely to provide the interest-rate cuts President Trump wants. Trump's steadfast belief in tariffs is being tested from all sides. ? What they're saying: Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Trump's tariffs will translate into higher inflation and slower economic growth — and the higher inflation could be persistent, not temporary. Powell's remarks suggest that the Fed will offer no imminent relief from plunging markets and scrambled supply chains, Axios' Neil Irwin writes. The fear of lasting inflation will make the Fed wary of cutting rates even if the economy falters. "CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!," Trump wrote on Truth Social. ? By the numbers: The S&P 500 fell 6% today after China imposed retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. It's now down 20% since mid-February. The Nasdaq shed another 5.8%, bringing its two-day drop to 11.4%.

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? Market meltdown

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals With the historic two-day rout Thursday and yesterday, the major indices — the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 — are all lower than a year ago, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes. The market capitalization of the S&P stocks fell $4 trillion this week. So your 401(k), your kids' 529 college savings and your nest egg are all a lot smaller than three days ago. ? Zoom out: All three touched all-time highs in the last six months. Now, the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the small-cap Russell are in a "bear market" — 20% off their highs — and poised to fall further. The S&P is down 17.4% from a new record in mid-February.

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? Phrase du jour: "Radical uncertainty"

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

The stock market whipsawed more than 8% in half an hour yesterday morning on little more than a rumor about the president's state of mind. That kind of volatility is a defining symptom of radical uncertainty — a state of affairs where no one has any conviction about what anything might be worth, or even about what they don't know, Axios' Felix Salmon writes. Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals The S&P 500 has dropped more than 15% since President Trump's inauguration, the worst showing for a president in their first term since George W. Bush was in office during the dot-com bust. Data as of 4 p.m. ET yesterday. Indexes: S&P 500, Germany's DAX, Japan's Nikkei, Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Toronto's TSX. Chart: AP And the tariff effect has been global. (Interactive version of above chart).

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S&P 500 loses 5%, more than half Wednesday’s historic gain, in midday trading as US-China trade tensions escalate

U.S. stocks are surrendering more than half of their historic gains from the day before as President Donald Trump’s trade war continues to confuse and threaten the economy, even if its temperature has cooled a bit. Read More.

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? Stocks turn south

Stocks fell yet again today, erasing a big chunk of yesterday's rebound.

• Markets were elated yesterday when President Trump walked back some of his tariffs.
• But investors indicated that, upon further reflection, a trade war with China still seems like bad news.

? By the numbers: The S&P 500 ended the day down 3.5%. The Nasdaq fell by 4.3% and Dow was down 2.5%.

 

? Bonds 101: Why the market spooked Trump

Data: FactSet. Chart: Axios Visuals A warning from the world's largest and most powerful financial market did what few others could: force President Trump to pivot on a key aspect of his trade agenda, Axios Macro co-author Courtenay Brown writes. Why it matters: The U.S. Treasury market is the heart of the global financial system. The rapid selloff fueled by Trump's tariffs was seen as a ticking economic time bomb that risked bringing the world economy to a screeching halt. Between the lines: The U.S. government funds its $36 trillion national debt with bonds, which it sells to investors around the world — individuals, pension funds, other nations, you name it. The price they're willing to pay determines the interest rate on government debt, which in turn ripples through to all other forms of borrowing, like home mortgages or corporate lending. Treasury securities are the bedrock of financial transactions around the globe — a store of value for German banks, Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds, and countless other key roles in the underpinnings of the global financial system. ? Threat level: There's a reason why the high-flying stock market gets all the headlines. The bond market is boring and unsexy when it is working well. That wasn't the case this week. The moves in the Treasury market suggested global investors were becoming less confident in U.S. government bonds, which in turn pushed up borrowing costs across the board. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond — the rate of interest the government pays its lenders — skyrocketed by as much as 0.6 percentage points since the start of the week. Sound small? It's a magnitude not seen since the pandemic, according to TD Securities.

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? What investors fear

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Stocks, Treasury bonds and the dollar are all trading at levels seen in the waning months of the Biden administration, when they caused almost no panic or hand-wringing. Why it matters: Optimists will say this means nothing very serious is happening. Pessimists will say it just means that all three markets have much further to fall, Axios' Felix Salmon writes. Where it stands: Compare Friday's close to where markets were eight months ago, on Aug. 9, 2024. The S&P 500 closed at 5,363, which means that it has risen 0.4% over eight months. (Thanks to the weekend's news, it'll be higher still today.) The euro/dollar exchange rate closed at $1.13 on Friday, up a modest 4 cents from $1.09 in August. The 10-year Treasury bond now yields 4.5%. That's substantially higher than its August yield of 3.95%, but it's the exact level it was at 11 months ago, in May. Indeed, the benchmark Treasury has closed at or above 4.5% in 23% of trading sessions over the past 18 months. Between the lines: Market commentary is panicky and jittery for four good reasons. The bear market: Thanks to the euphoria of Trump's early weeks in office, various markets, including the Nasdaq last week, fell to more than 20% below their all-time highs. When market watchers talk of levels like that as being "psychologically important," they aren't downplaying them. In markets, psychology — what Keynes called "animal spirits" — matters a lot. Volatility: We've seen a sequence of massive moves in the stock market, which has never felt less predictable or more uncertain. While no one knows where we'll go next, it's clear that even bigger moves, especially to the downside, are well within the realm of possibility. Global fundamentals: President Trump has single-handedly rewired the global economy — switching it dramatically from a system with a trusted U.S. counterparty at the center to one where the U.S. is the source of all chaos. Corporate fundamentals: Credit spreads (the amount that companies need to pay to borrow money — have increased sharply, in a sign that liquidity is in short supply. Companies are expected to find capital to invest in reshoring their operations while also eating the cost of tariffs and paying more in debt-service costs — all while money is leaving the country. It doesn't add up.

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? Cratering global outlook

Data: Bank of America Fund Manager Survey. Chart: Axios Visuals Global fund managers have turned startlingly pessimistic when it comes to the chances that the world will be able to withstand the effect of U.S. tariffs — and they're particularly bearish when it comes to the U.S. itself, Axios' Felix Salmon writes. Why it matters: A Bank of America survey of fund managers underscores the thesis that global investors are selling America. ? By the numbers: 49% of them said that a hard landing is now the most likely outcome for the global economy, up from 11% in March. The percentage of investors intending to cut their allocation to U.S. equities rose to the highest level since the survey began in 2001.

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Stocks tumble and dollar hits three-year low as Trump bashes Powell again

US stocks ended the day sharply lower Monday and the dollar tumbled as investors assessed continued tariff uncertainty and the implications of President Donald Trump’s ongoing mission to try and oust Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/21/investing/us-stock-market/index.html?

ps:If he would just shut up and get rid of the tariffs all would be fine!! He inherited a great economy and he's just screwing it up!!

Trump renews attack on Federal Reserve Chair Powell, accelerating US market slide

President Donald Trump repeated his attacks Monday against the chair of the Federal Reserve, demanding that the central bank lower its key interest rate to boost the economy. Trump's comments drove the stock market and the dollar lower as investors in the U.S. and overseas grow increasingly wary about the economic standing of the U.S. Read More.

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? Chart du jour: Buffett beats market

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals The S&P 500 may be rebounding from recent tariff drama. But it still can't hold a candle to Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes. The S&P is down about 3% for the year, while Berkshire is up about 20%. If that gap holds, it'd be Buffett's best year against the index since 2007. Go deeper: How Warren Buffett changed the way investors think about investing, via N.Y. Times (gift link).

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Dow soars 1,100 points after Trump team and China dramatically lower tariffs

US stocks surged on Monday after President Donald Trump’s top trade officials brokered a surprisingly dramatic de-escalation in trade tensions with China over the weekend, dropping tariffs to much lower levels, which some economists say could stave off a US recession.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/12/investing/us-stock-market

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Trump's reset

Data: Financial Modeling Prep; Chart: Axios Visuals When President Trump announced his sweeping new tariffs last month — "Liberation Day," as he called it — he appeared ready to blow up the global trade system and effectively divorce the U.S. economy from many major partners. His deal with China, announced early this morning, makes clear that's not happening, Axios Macro co-authors Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin write. ? The latest: Stocks soared today on the news of a temporary tariff stand-down, with the S&P 500 up nearly 3.3%. "We do want trade," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said yesterday — exactly the message markets had hoped to hear.` ?Yes, but: There's still a 30% tariff on Chinese products — and huge tariffs on especially cheap goods. It seems manageable, though, to executives who spent the past month trying to adapt to triple-digit taxes that had effectively stopped trade between the two nations, raising fears of shortages, layoffs and higher prices. Go deeper.

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? Stock market round trip

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Stocks just completed one of the more improbable round trips in recent history, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes. Why it matters: In the era of President Trump's on-and-off-again tariffs, radical uncertainty has a powerful grip on investors and the economy. ? By the numbers: As of yesterday's close, the S&P 500 is up slightly for 2025 after having been down double digits as recently as April 8. Fueled by tariff panic, the S&P touched bear market territory that day, 20% off its recent highs. Then Trump paused his stiffest tariffs, sparking what has nearly been a bull market rally since. Reality check: The market's still down almost 2% since Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration, as the effects of trade war whiplash linger.

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? Guying the dip

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios Men are far more likely than women to "buy the dip" — meaning, risk investing in stocks when prices are sinking, Axios' Emily Peck writes from a new survey. ? BlackRock polled 1,000 registered U.S. voters April 17–22, asking if stock market drops make them more likely to invest because shares are cheaper. 63% of men agreed, compared to just 33% of women. Why it matters: The findings illustrate an investing and retirement gender gap that leaves women at a disadvantage. ?"Buy low, sell high" is a classic strategy for maximizing returns. Go deeper.

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CEO pay rose nearly 10% in 2024 as stock prices and profits soared

NEW YORK (AP) — The typical compensation package for chief executives who run companies in the S&P 500 jumped nearly 10% in 2024 as the stock market enjoyed another banner year and corporate profits rose sharply.

https://apnews.com/article/ceo-pay-compensation-pay-ratio-perks-1b968327984edfc67486c2e0e3dc2fff?

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? Diminishing returns. You’re better off investing in the stock market. New analysis confirms private equity funds returned just 7 percent to investors in 2024, compared to the S&P 500’s return of 25 percent. And it’s not just last year: In the long term, the stock market has outperformed private equity on a one-, three-, five-, and 10-year basis. Investors, nonetheless, have poured trillions of dollars into the opaque and high-risk industry, whose buy-and-burn model of roll-up acquisitions has created an economic time bomb set to blow any moment.

? 1 fun thing: Stock superstition

Data: LPL Financial; Chart: Axios Visuals It's Friday the 13th — typically a good day to toss salt over your shoulder, watch out for ladders, knock on various pieces of wood — oh, and maybe buy some stocks too. Believe it or not, the stock market tends to do better on Friday the 13th than other days, Axios' Ben Berkowitz reports. ? By the numbers: Since 1928, the market on average returns a 0.09% gain on Friday the 13th. "Regular" Fridays return 0.05%, and all trading days, spooky or not, return 0.03%, on average. ? Today has shaped up to be an exception, though. The prospect of war in the Middle East sent oil prices higher and stocks lower.

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With its stock in sharp decline, Trump's media company will buy $400 million of its own shares

President Donald Trump’s media company plans to buy back up to $400 million of its stock, which have lost 46% of their value this year. Read More.

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? Stocks impervious to news

Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Stocks absolutely, positively don't want to go down, Axios Markets author Madison Mills writes in her debut story for Axios. Tariffs? War in the Middle East? Rising energy prices? Surging deficits? High interest rates? Weak dollar? Plunging CEO confidence? Climate change? Nope, nope, nope. Why it matters: Investors are already ignoring a slew of headwinds. Lots of risks could become the final straw that breaks the market's climb. Stocks rallied hard yesterday after Iran conducted a performative retaliation, sending oil plunging more than 7%, and reinforcing investors' relentless optimism. Keep reading.

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Wall Street "terrified" of Mamdani

Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photos: John Lamparski and Alex Kent/Getty Images, Selcuk Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images and Christian Monterrosa/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Wall Street is in a state of panic following Zohran Mamdani's victory in New York City's mayoral primary, Axios' Madison Mills reports. Mamdani, a Democratic socialist, campaigned on a message that New York has gotten too expensive. He has proposed free child care, free rides on city buses, a freeze on rent increases for certain apartments and higher taxes on the wealthy. ? What they're saying: Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, wrote on X, "It appears that NYC is electing to commit suicide by Mayor." Kathryn Wylde, long the voice of the city's business community, said even before Mamdani's victory that leaders were "terrified" of his rise. Bradley Tusk, CEO of Tusk Ventures and former campaign manager for Michael Bloomberg's 2009 mayoral race, said New York might even go the way of once-prosperous Rust Belt cities that "got dirty and dangerous and the taxes went up too much and people left." New York Post ? Reality check: Wealthy New Yorkers have made similar predictions in the past. When progressive candidate Bill de Blasio ran to replace Michael Bloomberg in 2013, investors were concerned about him raising income taxes on the top 1% of earners — a push that hit a wall in Albany. Go deeper.

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How Wall Street powered to a record high and what comes next

A trade war. A real war with bombs dropped in the Middle East. A barrage of insults hurled by the president of the United States at the head of the Federal Reserve.

https://apnews.com/article/wall-street-stock-market-record-tariffs-1bd2027a7564f42cc1387d8f3115def9?