Stock & Bull Markets

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Wall Street is post-tariff

Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios The S&P 500 was on track to hit a new record Friday, then sank when President Trump announced the termination of trade talks with Canada. Within an hour, investors decided not to care, and stocks closed at an all-time high for the first time since February, Axios' Madison Mills writes. Why it matters: Wall Street is largely post-tariff. The market is a forward-looking machine, and it's already priced in better-than-expected trade deals before they're signed. ? Zoom in: There are several bullish signals strategists would rather focus on than tariffs, which fueled the 19% decline in stocks just a couple months ago. Expectations are building around the "big, beautiful bill" being passed sooner rather than later, which could be a fresh catalyst. Recent declines in the dollar may be a long-term risk. But for now, this could be a cushion that drives earnings beats across the big tech names. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent continues to pitch an economic agenda that's a three-legged stool: tax, trade, and deregulation. Investors are salivating over the prospect of looser government oversight. ?️ Headline-driven volatility is a given under this administration, so don't let it impact your portfolio, advisers say. Jay Pelosky of TPW Advisors says he pays "no attention" to tariff policy anymore. Friday's action was "reflecting the improved investor sentiment and overall investor confidence," said Mike Dickson, head of research at Horizon Investments. Reality check: Economists caution that a slowdown in consumer spending, which is already happening, could worsen as tariff-driven inflation takes full effect. It will be another couple of months until we know how much increased tariffs have impacted inflation, per Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist with RSM US.

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? Charted: Bizarre bull market

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals The companies that drove the market higher in the first half of 2025 are not typical of bull markets, Axios' Madison Mills writes. Why it matters: The best-performing sectors year-to-date were industrials, communication services and financials. These are not the growth names that tend to rally in exuberant environments. State of play: Tech was the fifth-best performing sector year-to-date, up just over 6.5%. Utilities — a sector that can be seen as defensive since consumers are more likely to pay their utility bills even amid economic slowdowns —outperformed Big Tech. Investor excitement about AI "faded during the midst of the tariff selloff in March and April," according to a note from Clark Bellin, chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth.

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> Amazon Prime Day begins today and runs through Friday, July 11, extending to four days for the first time; shoppers expected to spend nearly $24B| Amazon explained (1440 Topics)

> AI company CoreWeave to acquire data center infrastructure provider Core Scientific for about $9B; shares subsequently drop 3.3% and 17.6%, respectively | ExxonMobil and Qatar Energy find new natural gas deposit off the coast of Cyprus, bolstering the region's energy exporting potential

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? Charted: $4 trillion company

Data: Companies Marketcap. Chart: Axios Visuals Nvidia's market cap entered uncharted territory yesterday — briefly surpassing $4 trillion about a year after first passing $3 trillion, Axios' Nathan Bomey writes. Why it matters: It's the first time any public company has ever hit that benchmark, reflecting the feverish investor interest in the AI chips giant. The big picture: Nvidia — which finished the day just shy of $4 trillion (charted above) — has become synonymous with the AI economy. Its meteoric rise is being powered by the tech industry's massive spending in product development and data center expansion.

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? Biz magnets

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

North Carolina is the best state for business, according to a CNBC analysis of factors like workforce, infrastructure and business-friendliness. The top 10 spots are dominated by the South and Midwest: North Carolina. Texas. Florida. Virginia. Ohio. Michigan. Georgia. Tennessee. Indiana. Minnesota. See the full list.

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Don Jr.’s ‘Amazon of Guns’ Immediately Tanks on Stock Market Debut

GrabAGun’s share price tumbled on its opening day on the New York Stock Exchange.

A gun-selling venture backed by Donald Trump Jr. had an abysmal opening day on Wall Street.

GrabAGun—an online firearms marketplace that Don Jr.’s business partner, Omeed Malik, has described as the “Amazon of guns”—opened on the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday. But Trump and Malik’s jubilant chants of “U.S.A.! U.S.A! at the opening bell turned to frowns as the company’s shares plummeted 25 percent by 3 p.m.

Don Jr. had bought 300,000 shares in an affiliate company and sits on GrabAGun’s board, Bloomberg reported.

The share price ended the day 24 percent down, shearing $1 million off Don Jr.’s holdings, though his shares were still worth $4 million at the closing bell.

Don Jr. and Malik are partners at 1789 Capital, an investment group that focuses on the “anti-woke” economy.

Representatives for GrabAGun, which traded under the ticker PEW, had argued that gun companies were being “stymied by ‘woke’ capital constraints.”

Asked if the ticker was evidence of trolling, he told Politico’s Playbook on Thursday: “Always be trolling. It’s part of the game.”

Don Jr. called the company’s public listing on the stock exchange part of a growing “counterculture.”

“I heard about it when I was on the campaign trail all over the place,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg. “People had a genuine fear that their way of life was just going to be able to be turned off.”

“What we’re giving them with the cash and the public stock and the notoriety is going to allow them to really grow,” he said, Bloomberg reported.

In the Playbook interview, he added that his family has been forced into unconventional markets “out of necessity.”

“Because the conventional markets that were open to us in across every spectrum of business for the prior few decades, they closed overnight,” he said.

GrabAGun’s chief executive, Marc Nemati, told Trump Jr.’s podcast, Triggered, last week that the platform was aimed at “the younger demographic.”

“People like me who buy everything online,” he said.

Last month, he told potential investors that millennials and Gen Z “are now shaping the future of firearms retail.”

“Why shouldn’t we be able to buy a firearm, which is protected by the Second Amendment, in the same vein?” he said.

GrabAGun marks Don Jr.’s latest business venture. He has joined at least eight corporate boards and advisory committees since his father won the election last year.

“Look at the boards that I’m doing. … If I’m on the board of a social media company, it’s because it was a conservative-leaning social media company that would have no platform otherwise," he said when Playbook asked if he was only on these boards because he’s the president’s son.

Don Jr. also serves as executive vice president of development and acquisitions at the Trump Organization, the holding company for most of his father’s business ventures.

Junior has also served as Director of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. and as a director at Public Square Holdings Inc. since November.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/don-jrs-amazon-of-guns-immediately-tanks-on-stock-market-debut/?

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? Bull run

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals The stock market rallied during President Trump's first six months in office, despite a volatility spike in April. But a new poll shows Main Street isn't feeling the same optimism, Axios Markets author Madison Mills writes. Why it matters: While investors are pricing in a post-tariff rebound, the general public is still concerned about economic issues like inflation — a reminder that the stock market is not the economy. By the numbers: Despite a volatile April off the back of tariff announcements, the S&P 500 is up 7% so far this year — outpacing the historical average. ? But 70% of respondents in a CBS News/YouGov poll out yesterday said Trump isn't focusing enough on lowering prices. He's focusing too much on tariffs, according to 61% of those surveyed. 60% said they oppose new U.S. tariffs entirely. Share this story ... Get Axios Markets. The Wall Street Journal ? Bullish lead story of today's Wall Street Journal: "Fears of economic downturn following President Trump's tariffs have eased as consumer confidence and spending rebound ... usinesses and consumers are regaining their swagger, and evidence is mounting that those who held back are starting to splurge again." "The stock market is reaching record highs. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, which tumbled in April to its lowest reading in almost three years, has begun climbing again. Retail sales are up more than economists had forecast, and sky-high inflation hasn't materialized — at least not yet." Gift link.

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? Meme stocks strike back

Data: Financial Modeling Prep; Chart: Axios Visuals Meme stocks are back, with GoPro, Opendoor and Krispy Kreme rallying double digits this week thanks to investor hype and Reddit threads, Axios' Madison Mills reports. Their resurgence is the latest signal that investors are willing to take on more risk, as stocks keep hitting record highs and it gets harder to beat the broader market. ? "The environment is just kind of ripe for it," Stocktwits editor-in-chief Tom Bruni tells Axios. ? The meme stock craze started during the COVID-19 pandemic, when stimulus checks coupled with time at home to scroll Reddit led to hype-fueled retail trading booms. The current moment is indicative of a broader challenge: how to beat the S&P 500 when Big Tech is the dominant driver of returns. ? Retail investors are looking for "catch-up plays," Bruni says. ? The bottom line: Meme stock traders are no longer a punchline — they've become a force that Wall Street, begrudgingly or not, has to monitor.

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Coast-to-Coast Connection

Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern announced an $85B merger yesterday, creating the first coast-to-coast rail operator in the US. The combined company, which will retain the Union Pacific name and have a projected value of $250B, will unite 52,000 miles of track across 43 states, linking Union Pacific’s western network to Norfolk Southern’s eastern system.   Company leaders said the merger will transform shipping and boost domestic manufacturing by streamlining logistics for goods ranging from grains to automobiles. They forecast $2.75B in annualized synergies through enhanced routes and increased intermodal services—moving goods in one container using two or more transport types. The new company will be headquartered in Omaha, while Atlanta remains a key hub for technology and operations.   The railroads plan to file for regulatory approval within six months, with plans to close in early 2027, pending a decision from the Surface Transportation Board. Labor unions expressed concern about service disruption, higher rates, and potential job losses, though the companies said all union jobs will be preserved.

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Intel's stock tumbles after Trump says its CEO must resign

Shares of Intel slumped Thursday after President Donald Trump said in a social media post that the chipmaker's CEO needs to resign. Read More.

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? UK, EU firms move stock listings to U.S.

Peter Jackson — CEO of Flutter Entertainment, parent of FanDuel — and NFL star Rob Gronkowski celebrate as the company moved its primary stock listing from London to the NYSE last year. Photo: Brendan McDermid/Reuters Top tech companies in Europe and Britain are going public in New York — and some corporate heavyweights are moving their stock listings stateside, where business is growing faster, The Wall Street Journal reports: "Amsterdam and London pioneered the creation of public-stock trading centuries ago, raising money for voyages to Asia, Africa and the Caribbean that forged Europe's colonial empires. Now, Europe's stock markets face a crisis of inactivity." Why it matters: "European leaders see the withering of these historic exchanges as an emergency — and one of the culprits behind Europe's economic stagnation, low productivity, and the widening wealth gap between its citizens and Americans," the Journal notes. ? Europe doesn't want to be "just a zone between America and Asia," Stéphane Boujnah, CEO of Euronext, which owns seven stock exchanges in the region, told the Journal. Stephan Leithner, CEO of Deutsche Börse, operator of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, said: "The wealth creation will happen to Texas teachers and California public-sector employees, not to European pensioners." Keep reading (gift link).

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Wall Street rallies and the Dow soars 900 points on hopes for lower interest rates Wall Street is rallying on Friday toward its best day in months after the head of the Federal Reserve hinted the cuts to interest rates that investors and President Donald Trump crave so much may be on the way. Read More.

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? Wall Street's two obsessions

Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch. Photos: Chesnot/Getty Images and Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Markets seem willing to ignore the risks that could come from President Trump trying to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, as long as: Nvidia reports solid earnings this afternoon. Interest rate cuts are coming. Why it matters: Yesterday's muted market reaction is the latest example of investors shrugging off any headwinds that come their way, Axios' Madison Mills writes. Markets simply "don't care for now," Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, tells Axios. ? What we're watching: Of course, all this euphoria could be derailed by one whiff of weakness in Nvidia earnings, which come out today after the closing bell. The company represents 3% of the global stock market — and its biggest customers are the other top 10 companies in the S&P 500.

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? Bull call: +50% by '27!

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Bank of America says this bull market could rally another 52.5% by September 2027, Axios Markets author Madison Mills writes. Why it matters: It's an extremely bullish call after the market has already had 20 record highs this year. Keep reading.

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? Charted: Market's gold rush

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Gold has surged to record highs while Big Tech stocks and bonds sell off, Axios Markets author Madison Mills writes. Why it matters: Gold is a classic safe-haven asset. The rally suggests investors are bracing for a seasonally weak month for stocks and bonds, with tariff and Fed uncertainty adding to jitters. Keep reading.

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Data: Cox Automotive. Chart: Axios Visuals

1. ? Tesla's U.S. market share dropped below 40% — the lowest since 2017. Its aging lineup of electric vehicles is facing new competition from General Motors, Ford, Hyundai and others. Go deeper.

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? Not-so-Magnificent 7

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

Not one member of the Magnificent 7 — the basket of seven Big Tech stocks that double as market darlings — is in the top 50 performing stocks in the S&P 500 year-to-date, Axios Markets author Madison Mills writes. Why it matters: That's bad news for investors who thought they could beat the index by going all in on the Mag 7. Zoom in: The Mag 7 isn't a monolith. Tesla and Apple have spent the majority of the year weighing down the group. Nvidia, Alphabet, and Meta have all seen gains of over 25%, solid returns that don't come close to the triple-digit gains seen in the top-performing stocks of this bull market.

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Stock market Stocks surged to record highs on Thursday after August inflation data largely met expectations, bolstering hopes the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month. The Dow jumped 617 points, or 1.36%, to close at 46,108 — its first time above 46,000. The milestone marks a symbolic win for the blue-chip index, highlighting the market's resilience despite tariff concerns and signs of weakness in the economy. The S&P 500 rose 0.85%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.72%. All three major indexes closed at record highs. Traders are now pricing in a 93% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point when policymakers meet next week.

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?️ Rare newspaper bidding war

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Hedge fund Alden Global increased its takeover offer for Dallas Morning News publisher DallasNews yesterday to $20 per share, topping a $16.50-per-share proposal from Hearst, Axios Pro Rata author Dan Primack writes. Why it matters: A bidding war for newspapers seems almost as antiquated as print editions (something Alden is pledging to maintain in Dallas). Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Hearst in July announced an agreement to buy DallasNews for $14 per share. Alden subsequently submitted an unsolicited, nonbinding $16.50-per-share bid. DallasNews stuck with Hearst, which yesterday increased its own bid to $16.50 per share.

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Nvidia to invest $5 billion in Intel, working together on AI infrastructure and PCs

Nvidia, the world’s leading chipmaker, announced on Thursday that it’s investing $5 billion in Intel and will collaborate with the struggling semiconductor company.

https://apnews.com/article/nvida-intel-chips-investment-73c307d2f6ceccd6854d6666775358f3?

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> Intel shares close up over 22%, posting best day in 38 years, after Nvidia announces $5B investment; comes after the US government agreed to buy a nearly 10% stake in Intel last month (More)

> American Express raises Platinum Card annual fee to $895 from $695, with over $3,500 in annual benefits; move follows JPMorgan and Citigroup, which revamped cards for affluent customers this year (More) | How credit cards work (1440 Topics)   ? Nvidia's magic touch     Illustration: Tiffany Herring/Axios   Betting on Nvidia's chosen partners has been a winning trade, Axios Markets author Madison Mills writes. Stocks like CoreWeave, Nebius Group, and now Intel have soared anywhere from 47% to 370% in the past year. Why it matters: It pays to follow the money — in this case, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's money. ? Zoom in: Nvidia will invest $5 billion in struggling rival Intel, subject to regulatory approval. Intel soared over 20% off the news, leaving it up more than 50% year-to-date. Nvidia and Intel will collaborate on developing chips for data centers and PCs.

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> President Donald Trump announces $100K fees for new H-1B applicants, up from $2K to $5K per applicant; Amazon, Microsoft, Goldman Sachs, and other finance and technology companies use the visa to recruit workers from abroad (More)

> Rupert Murdoch, Larry Ellison, and Michael Dell are part of the group interested in buying TikTok, President Donald Trump reveals; Ellison's Oracle would handle data and security, Americans will sit on six out of seven board seats (More)

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Market Downturns

A brief look at recessions Stemming from the Latin word “recessus” (meaning “a retreat”), recessions are sustained periods of declining activity in a country’s economy. During a recession, unemployment rises while economic output falls across a large swath of industries. Recessions are inevitable in modern economies, with one occurring about every six to seven years.   One common definition of a recession is when a country logs two consecutive quarters of shrinking gross domestic product, but in practice, these economic phenomena are more complex.   The US has been through 34 recessions since 1854, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. But over time, they’ve become both shorter and less frequent. Since 1980, the US has only experienced six recessions. ... Read our full deep dive on recessions here.   Also, check out ...  > Amid market downturns, some let their roots grow out—so-called "recession blondes." (More) > The eight people who decide whether the US is in a recession. (More) > Visualizing the trends of recessions and recoveries over 150 years. (More)

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? Happy Q4 to all who celebrate

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals For investors, the most wonderful time of the year is now upon us — the fourth quarter, historically the best-performing period of the year for stocks. Wall Street gets excited about the final quarter of the year for good reason, Axios' Madison Mills writes: Since 1950, the final quarter has been positive for stocks 80% of the time, with an average gain of 4.2%. ? This year, stocks have kept climbing even as strategists have warned of risks from tariffs, a softening labor market and over-dependence on AI. Go deeper ...

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? The stock market's new kingmaker

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

OpenAI is becoming the stock market's new kingmaker, Axios Closer author Nathan Bomey writes. AMD shares soared 24% today after the chip designer announced a deal with OpenAI. Its stock jumped to a level seen just twice in a single session over the past 40 years, Bespoke Investment Group noted. ?️ Shopify and Etsy benefitted from the OpenAI bump last week, after they were announced as the first partners for ChatGPT's new "instant checkout" feature.