Stock & Bull Markets

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? Charted: AI stock spikes

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Massive single-day stock pops are becoming a regular occurrence for AI stocks, Axios Markets author Madison Mills writes. Why it matters: These record one-day rallies are looking frothy as investors continue worrying about an approaching AI bubble. Yesterday, AMD soared 24% after a multibillion-dollar AI data center partnership with OpenAI. Oracle's stock rallied about 40% in one day last month after its latest earnings release and a reported $300 billion cloud deal with OpenAI. Keep reading.

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? Gold's record run

Data: Financial Modeling Prep; Chart: Axios Visuals Gold — typically a safe haven in times of turmoil — is soaring at the same time the stock market is hitting new highs, an unusual dynamic that is troubling some market insiders, Axios Markets author Madison Mills writes. Why it matters: Gold's surge signals growing unease about the U.S. economy and institutions. Gold futures topped a record high of over $4,000 an ounce for the first time yesterday. That puts the precious metal on track for its best year since 1979 — a year of double-digit inflation, a Mideast oil crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. So far this year, gold is up 51%. ?️ The big picture: Gold's rally comes as President Trump's trade war shakes the global economy. Today is Day 8 of the government shutdown. "People are starting to lose trust in institutions," says Ryan McIntrye, a senior managing partner at Sprott, which focuses on precious metals, and are "reassessing what they view as safe." ? Zoom in: Four other factors are contributing to the gold rally. Uncertainty: Concerns about a possible resurgence in inflation, the debt load of the U.S., and economic and policy uncertainty are all risks that are driving people to look for assets like bitcoin and gold. Central banks: Other countries' central banks are looking to diversify their reserves after over-allocating to the U.S. dollar. Speculation: As central banks buy gold, pushing up the price, speculators come in, fueling the rally. Weak competition: Once, there was no alternative to U.S. Treasuries for investors seeking safety. Now, "there's no alternative to gold," McIntyre says.

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? Bull market turns 3

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Sunday is the third anniversary of the bull market, which began Oct. 12, 2022. Big Tech has driven the bull run, Axios Markets author Madison Mills notes. The S&P 500 is up 88% in the three years. The Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) is up 166% since the moniker was coined in 2023. Go deeper (Reuters).

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? Some birthday party

Data: Financial Modeling Prep; Chart: Axios Visuals On the last trading day before this bull market's third anniversary, the S&P 500 closed down 2.7%. It was the biggest drop since April — a month that saw the White House announce a raft of new import taxes on global trading partners. Reality check: Despite yesterday's sharp decline, the S&P 500 remains up over 11% year-to-date, up 88% in the last three years and within roughly 3% of its all-time high. The record-breaking run for U.S. stock indexes has been accompanied by recent strong gains for other assets, including gold, silver and bitcoin, Reuters notes. Catch up quick: The market took a hit yesterday after President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods next month if China follows through on plans to tighten export controls on a range of minerals the U.S. desperately needs to power the AI boom. The latest threats between the two nations could reignite a tit-for-tat trade war with the potential to rattle America's economy, Axios' Andrew Childers, Josephine Walker and Courtenay Brown report.

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? Silver soars

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Silver prices are surging, echoing gold's record-breaking run, Axios' Madison Mills reports. Why it matters: Like gold, silver is seen as an attractive investment amid economic uncertainty and worries over currency weakness. Silver's rally is being driven in part by concerns that the metal — which also has a number of industrial uses — could be ensnared in Trump's trade wars. ? By the numbers: Silver futures rose more than 7% yesterday, approaching records set in January 1980 — a time when the Hunt brothers infamously sought to corner the market. The intrigue: The lack of liquidity in silver, a much smaller market than gold, could be distorting price moves.

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Doom Metal (Keystone / Hulton Archive / Getty)

View in browser When prices are high and global conflicts destabilize the world, some investors start looking backwards—away from an uncertain future and toward the predictability of the past. And what’s older and more dependable than gold? Last week, amid widespread geopolitical turmoil and a weakening U.S. dollar, the price of gold hit a historic high of $4,000 an ounce. This year has so far been gold’s best since 1979, a moment of instability so profound that it led to recession. Gold prices are much closer to a genuine “recession indicator” than, say, the resurgence of frozen yogurt or an uptick in Uber Eats orders. That’s because, over the past 50 years, spikes in the price of gold have typically been correlated with widespread inflation and geopolitical dysfunction. In 1979, amid double-digit inflation numbers in the United States and a global energy crisis, investors stocked up on the precious metal as a way to counter those shocks. In the years following the 2008 financial crisis, as investors lost trust in major institutions once seen as “too big to fail,” gold prices shot up again. And when persistent inflation was crushing the U.S. dollar after the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, gold once again soared. The precious metal has long been considered a safe-haven asset, because, unlike the U.S. dollar, its inherent value isn’t determined by any state government. Although it’s probably not realistic for everyone to start piling into Diamond District jewelry shops and hoarding gold bars, gold remains an appealing, if old-fashioned, alternative to more contemporary investments: Its value stems from its shine and rarity, not its ability to produce a line of credit. Some investors see gold as a standard way to diversify their portfolio. Others, stereotypically known as goldbugs, tend to be broadly skeptical about contemporary monetary policy. Just as investors in bitcoin, so-called digital gold, have historically skewed libertarian and anti-institutional, the most extreme goldbugs are betting against the system, doubtful that the Federal Reserve is capable of keeping the U.S. dollar strong. There’s also only so much of the metal lodged in the planet’s crust, compared with the dollar, which can be printed ad infinitum. At least until someone like Elon Musk figures out how to increase its supply by mining asteroids, gold will likely remain the doomer’s hedge of choice. Whereas a different sort of investor looks to get in early on promising new technological innovations, the goldbug doesn’t lose sight of what’s tried-and-true. Gold prices have already risen more than 50 percent this year and are showing no signs of stopping. The story of today’s gold boom began in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and Western governments decided to sanction the Russian central bank by freezing its foreign-exchange reserves. The scale of these sanctions was a reminder of why countries might want to own assets that can’t be easily frozen. Especially in emerging markets, central banks around the world “realized that the truly only safe asset” is gold, Daan Struyven, a co-head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, told me. The whiplash of President Donald Trump’s tariff spree this spring introduced new uncertainties for the global market. No nation or territory was off-limits (including remote islands inhabited only by penguins and seals). Trump’s scattershot approach has had clear consequences, especially for countries with fledgling markets. Kazakhstan, Bulgaria, and Indonesia are among the many nations now buying gold by the ton, according to World Bank data—ostensibly to insulate themselves from any future shocks caused by U.S. policy. Meanwhile, Struyven explained, the ongoing question of whether America’s own central bank will retain its independence could also be contributing to gold’s historic run, because “the gold price tends to rise when questions about central-bank governance rise.” The other main driver of this price spike is less abstract. Some Wall Streeters are concerned that the value of the U.S. dollar will continue to erode as the national debt climbs and the Federal Reserve loses its grip on the currency. They’re making what’s become known as the “Debasement Trade,” shifting money away from the weakening U.S. dollar and into harder, more independent assets such as gold and bitcoin. Shrinkflation, stagflation, good-old-fashioned inflation—all of it means that your paycheck doesn’t go as far as it once did, and all of it is good for gold. The mystery of the current gold rally is that the S&P 500 is also up. The stock-market index reached an all-time high earlier this month, which would seem to suggest that the American economy isn’t quite as close to the brink as the price of gold might indicate. But the reality probably has to do with a bifurcated market. Joe Davis, Vanguard’s global chief economist, told The New York Times on Saturday that this rare case of gold and stocks moving in a parallel upward trend has to do with “dramatically different” investor perspectives: The optimists are going with equities, and the pessimists are going with gold. In today’s economy, there’s room enough for both. Another way to put it is that a bet on the S&P 500 amounts to faith in the fruits of modern industry: AI and renewable energy, to name a couple. A bet on gold is a recognition that all empires eventually fall, and a return to something much more ancient. Related: The everything recession Just how bad would an AI bubble be?

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? Walmart unleashes ChatGPT shopping

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Walmart's stock jumped nearly 5% yesterday after the company announced it was teaming up with OpenAI to let shoppers purchase its products through ChatGPT. Why it matters: The partnership between OpenAI and the world's largest retailer signals the arrival of "agentic commerce" — where AI doesn't just answer questions but anticipates what shoppers need next, Axios' Kelly Tyko writes. ? Between the lines: Walmart has been digging deeper into artificial intelligence to transform the business. The company is using generative AI to speed up how fast it rolls out on-trend fashion items. It previously added a generative AI-powered search, an AI-powered product replenishment service and other tools. Walmart-owned Sam's Club is employing AI to resolve long lines for receipt verification at club exits. Keep reading.

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? Charted: Gold and silver plunge

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Gold and silver futures plunged yesterday, with gold in particular having its worst day in more than 12 years, after both precious metals recently ran to record highs, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes. Why it matters: Investors may be coming to grips with a disconnect between the surge in the traditional safe havens and actual fundamentals. Keep reading.

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? New "Magnificent 7" contenders

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Investors eager to make a fortune on AI, but priced out of the "Magnificent 7" boom of the last three years, are turning their attention to three other tech stars coming in hot in recent months: If stock market strategists are right, Broadcom, Oracle and Palantir could be the next big plays that challenge the Mag 7 for AI dominance, Axios Markets author Madison Mills writes. Keep reading.

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Nvidia's trillions

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals Nvidia today became the first company in the world to reach a $5 trillion market cap — and got there with stunning speed, Axios' Madison Mills reports. The AI chipmaker crossed the $2 trillion and $3 trillion thresholds last year, and it became the world's first $4 trillion company just this past July. ? By the numbers: At $5 trillion, Nvidia's market cap is now equal to just over 15% of America's economy. It's worth more than the GDP of every country in the world except the U.S. and China. CEO Jensen Huang's net worth has ballooned to $180 billion amid the stock's rally. The Aurora data center under construction in Virginia is set to require 96 megawatts of power (similar to a small city) and take up roughly 815,000 square feet (14 football fields). Photo: Digital Realty ? Nvidia is also part of a coalition that's building a new type of AI data center, designed to ease demand on local power grids, Axios' Amy Harder scoops. The company is deploying software developed by Emerald AI — a startup in which Nvidia is an investor — at a new facility, called Aurora, that's under construction in Virginia. ? How it works: Aurora will shift compute-intensive AI jobs across time and geography — throttling workloads when grids are stressed and resuming when demand drops. It's like taking 18-wheelers off the road at rush hour, says David Porter, vice president of the nonprofit Electric Power Research Institute.

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AI spending spree

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Five of the Magnificent 7 reported earnings this week: All but Meta jumped afterward, with Amazon hitting a record high, Axios' Madison Mills reports. The results, and the market response, capture the debate consuming Wall Street: How much return can the tech giants get on AI, their biggest bet ever? Demand for AI infrastructure, tools and power outstrips supply, notes Evan Schlossman of investment fund SuRo Capital. "That is what's directly leading to this increase in spending." ? Zoom in: This quarter, companies laid out clearer cases for their AI investments. Meta and Google said AI is fueling higher ad revenue. Microsoft talked about demand for its AI tools from cloud customers. Apple teased an AI-enabled Siri coming in 2026. By the numbers: Wall Street thinks that by 2026, the big tech companies will spend about 94% of their operating cash (after certain items) on AI projects, according to Bank of America. That's up from 76% in 2024, showing how quickly AI spending is taking off. ? Between the lines: All these companies are spending big on AI, but only Meta got dinged for it, even though its ratio of spending to revenue is the lowest among peers. Investors were pleased with Meta's "year of efficiency" in 2023 and may feel as if Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is "treating shareholders' cash as if it's his cash," Gil Luria, managing director at the investment firm D.A. Davidson, tells Axios. Zuckerberg told investors Wednesday: "Being able to make a significantly larger investment here is very likely to be a profitable thing ... over some period." The bottom line: AI is a highly expensive bet, and nobody knows yet if it will pay off. So far, companies are spending their own money. But if they take on debt to fuel AI development, and demand doesn't catch up, that could shake up America's whole financial system, Luria says.

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? Salad slump

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Fast-casual restaurants are slumping as consumers opt to save their cash at lunchtime, Axios' Nathan Bomey reports. The stocks of Chipotle, Sweetgreen, Cava, and Noodles & Co. plunged this past week. ?️ Zoom in: Gen Z and young Millennials — a core demographic for fast-casual chains — are "facing several headwinds, including unemployment, increased student loan repayment and slower real wage growth," Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright said Wednesday on an earnings call.

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? Crypto trends to watch

Data: Financial Modeling Prep, CoinGecko. Chart: Axios Visuals Digital currencies have grown from the fringes of mainstream relevance to an asset class embraced by Wall Street, legitimized by Congress and capturing a growing slice of everyday investment portfolios. Axios' Brady Dale pinpoints three crypto trends that will shape the industry's future: Whether bitcoin stays above $100,000 and continues its gradual, sputtering climb, or if a big drawdown really comes. Whether Congress will pass legislation to regulate crypto market structure, or the rules of the road for trading. How deeply crypto gets integrated into legacy Wall Street institutions. The introduction of bitcoin ETFs was a huge step, and Wall Street is increasingly flirting with financial products on the blockchain itself.

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? Charted: Bitcoin blowout

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Investors looking to bitcoin as a safe haven this year are feeling anything but safe, Axios' Pete Gannon writes. Why it matters: Once billed as a hedge against inflation and economic angst, bitcoin is now performing like the ultimate risk asset. It was one of the first things to fall as investors increasingly question the sustainability of the AI-driven stock rally. Crypto's latest slide comes while the Nasdaq is down 6% over the past month. ? By the numbers: After a 26% slide from its all-time high in early October, bitcoin is now trading roughly flat since the start of the year. Gold has soared 55% in 2025.

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Nvidia earnings clear lofty hurdle set by analysts amid fears about an AI bubble

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Nvidia’s sales of the computing chips powering the artificial intelligence craze surged beyond the lofty bar set by stock market analysts in a performance that may ease recent jitters about a Big Tech boom turning into a bust that topples the world’s most valuable company.

https://apnews.com/article/nvidia-earnings-artificial-intelligence-boom-bubble-6feaf871d527436f98fbd8d228377b30?

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? The market is just Nvidia now

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Nvidia's powerhouse earnings weren't enough to pause a stock selloff late this week driven by AI worries, Axios' Madison Mills reports. Instead, it took hints of a December interest rate cut to support the market. ? The big picture: Much of the market — and the economy — is leaning on Nvidia, and its new earnings report couldn't dispel fears of an AI bubble. ? "It's a one-bet market, and that to me is risky," says Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower. ✂️ The latest: Stocks bounced back this morning after N.Y. Federal Reserve Bank president John Williams hinted at interest rate cuts next month. ? The S&P 500 closed up about 1%, while Nvidia shares fell around 1%. The bottom line: While Fed rate cuts can offer relief, questions about AI circular funding, valuations and spending are today's primary drivers on Wall Street. Go deeper.

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? Oracle anxiety rattles investors

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Oracle is making investors nervous about Big Tech's enormous AI bet — the engine of our economic growth and the bull market, Axios Markets author Madison Mills and Jeffrey Cane write. Why it matters: With so much money at stake, any sign of delayed AI profits raises the risk that some players may never get there. Oracle's stock, already in a deep slump, tumbled yesterday after the Financial Times reported that Blue Owl Capital, one of the biggest backers of the AI boom, walked away from talks with Oracle over investing in a planned data center in Michigan. Blue Owl was concerned about possible delays and didn't like the existing lease and debt terms, a person familiar with the matter told Axios' Dan Primack. Oracle told Bloomberg that its investment discussions about the data center were "on schedule" but did not involve Blue Owl. ? Between the lines: The tech giants that dominate the stock market are set to spend an estimated $700 billion on AI. But that money is going toward data centers and chips, the guts that power AI, not the applications that will make them money.

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? Charted: Silver rush!

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Silver and gold prices — which have been on fire all year — surged yesterday to all-time highs, Axios' Madison Mills writes. Silver is up a whopping 133% since the beginning of the year, while gold has increased nearly 70%. Why it matters: The precious metals rally is seen in large part as an investor response to global tensions, including the pressure the U.S. is putting on Venezuela. Silver and gold are on track for their strongest year since 1979 — a period of immense geopolitical turmoil, including the Iranian revolution, subsequent oil crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Get the latest.

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⛏️ Silver, gold and platinum are hitting all-time highs, fueled by geopolitical tensions and bets that more interest rate cuts are coming. Go deeper.

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? Charted: S&P 500's new record

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals The S&P 500 closed at another record on Wall Street following yesterday's surprisingly strong GDP report — surpassing a high it set earlier this month. Technology stocks, which have been the main force pushing major indexes to records all year, once again were able to counter weakness elsewhere in the market. Go deeper.

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? 2026's stock kingmaker

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

How do you pick the winners among AI tech stocks? One school of thought is that you want companies with strong ties to OpenAI, Axios senior markets reporter Madison Mills writes. For at least the first quarter of 2026, the question is: "What is your tie to OpenAI?" Jeffrey Favuzza, tech strategist at Jefferies, tells Axios. ? For investors, this is a risk-reward scenario with little precedent. If OpenAI succeeds in its AI ambitions, riches could shower down upon its tech company partners. It's a big if: OpenAI is also a cash-burning startup that doesn't generate profits yet. ? Zoom in: OpenAI has spending commitments worth $1.4 trillion over the next eight years. The companies in line to receive that windfall would win big. OpenAI reportedly signed cloud service agreements worth up to $300 billion with Oracle. OpenAI pays Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom for AI chips, and has a deal with CoreWeave for its cloud-based GPUs. That usage is set to expand as long as demand for ChatGPT grows. OpenAI is set to pay cloud players ranging from Google to Amazon for AI infrastructure services. ? Other AI winners mentioned in calls with sources include Databricks, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Datadog, MongoDB and Palantir.

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? Charted: Silver vs. oil

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Here's a stunning stat on the precious metals boom, via The Wall Street Journal: One troy ounce of silver is now worth more than a barrel of oil in futures markets. Why it matters: Aside from a couple of brief moments during the height of the COVID pandemic in 2020, "that hasn't happened since West Texas Intermediate oil futures began trading in 1983," the Journal's Ryan Dezember writes. Year to date, silver futures are up 163%. Crude oil is down more than 20%. Keep reading (gift link).

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? Big stock gains

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals Stocks delivered record after record this year, with the S&P 500 up 17.5% heading into the final day of trading of 2025. Markets rebounded after tariff-driven volatility in the spring and climbed steadily for the rest of the year. AI fueled the rally, with strong demand for AI chips, software and infrastructure. Go deeper: Bloomberg, "The 11 Big Trades of 2025: Bubbles, Cockroaches and a 367% Jump" (gift link).

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Stock market

The US stock market is on the verge of a rare milestone: three consecutive years of double-digit gains. Historically, a three-peat is unusual and has only happened five times since the 1940s. The S&P 500 is set to rise 17% in 2025, following gains of 23% in 2024 and 24% in 2023, despite worries over tariffs, geopolitical tensions and the longest government shutdown in history. Financial analysts say stocks were fueled this year by strong corporate earnings, excitement around artificial intelligence and optimism about potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

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? Charted: Dow nips at 50K

Data: Financial Modeling Prep. Chart: Axios Visuals The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit another record high yesterday as the blue-chip stock index edges toward a psychologically important threshold of 50,000, Axios Markets author Madison Mill writes. Why it matters: The Dow may not be Wall Street's favorite benchmark (that would be the S&P 500). But to Main Street, the 30-stock Dow is synonymous with the stock market.