2025/26/27/28 Elections

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Cornyn, Paxton trade early attacks in closely watched Texas GOP Senate primary

A supercharged U.S. Senate GOP primary in Texas between Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton is kicking off with personal attacks and expectations of a high-spending race in a year when Senate Republicans will be defending key seats and targeting others in 2026. Read More.

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Stefanik eyes N.Y. governor run after pulling Trump cabinet bid

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is seriously considering a run for governor of New York after withdrawing her nomination for ambassador to the United Nations, two sources familiar with her thinking confirmed to Axios.

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/16/elise-stefanik-new-york-governor-trump-lawler?

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? Schumer's top recruits

Senior Democrats are increasingly convinced the party will land former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper to run for Senate next year, a potential coup for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

• But Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has indicated she's passing on a Senate run, despite Schumer's direct appeals.

Why it matters: Both parties acknowledge their Senate success next year will largely rest upon their recruitment efforts this year.

• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), the chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), has been personally involved in the effort to recruit Cooper, whom she's called a "formidable candidate," sources tell us.
• Cooper is unlikely to make a decision until June, a source familiar with his thinking tells us. Until then it's 50/50, the source said.
• But he's convinced he's his party's best chance to beat Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).

Democratic leaders are patiently waiting for prominent candidates to make decisions in Maine, Ohio and Texas.

• Maine Gov. Janet Mills hasn't ruled out a Senate bid to unseat Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine). And there's always hope Rep. Jared Golden tries to replicate his red-district magic statewide.
• Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is also considering a comeback bid, and former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) might give it another try in Texas.

Zoom in: Democrats are coalescing around Rep. Chris Pappas in New Hampshire, especially now that Rep. Maggie Goodlander has decided not to run.

• But in Michigan, with Whitmer out of the picture, a competitive primary is shaping up on the Democratic side. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow is already in the race, as is progressive Abdul El-Sayed. Rep. Haley Stevens entered the race this morning.
• A spokesperson for the DSCC said Democrats are in a "strong position" to pummel Republicans on the campaign trail over "their toxic threats to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid and the chaotic tariffs that will spike costs for families."

The other side: Republicans continue to cite Gov. Brian Kemp as their top recruit to knock off freshman Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in Georgia. Thune has made an in-person appeal, as Axios scooped last week.

— Stephen Neukam and Hans Nichols

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? New Texas two-step

The Texas Senate primary is increasingly targeting an audience of one. Why it matters: Both candidates crave the coveted Trump endorsement and aren't shy about personalizing their pitches in his favor. Today: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is boasting about his 99% voting record with Trump, according to a new memo provided first to us. Over Trump's first term and so far in his second, Cornyn voted in line with Trump 99.2% of the time, more than fellow Texas GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, the memo says. Yesterday: A group backing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's primary bid launched its first TV ad, airing in Palm Beach, Florida, with the clear intention of catching Trump's eye, as Axios scooped. Go deeper — Stef Kight

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David Jolly entices Florida Democrats with dream of winning 2026 governor’s race

Alarmed by what they’ve seen and felt under the past 15 weeks of President Donald Trump and six years of Gov. Ron DeSantis, a swath of Democratic activists, elected officials and financial donors see a candidate who could, they hope, produce an upset victory in the 2026 Florida governor’s race.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2025/05/03/david-jolly-entices-florida-democrats-with-dream-of-winning-2026-governors-race/?

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? Broken Senate pipeline

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios For the fourth time this year, a term-limited governor is saying a hard "NO" to the Senate, dealing big blows to party leaders John Thune and Chuck Schumer. ? Georgia: Gov. Brian Kemp (R) won't challenge vulnerable Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) in 2026. Thune flew to Atlanta last month to recruit Kemp, as we scooped. ? Michigan, Kentucky and New Hampshire: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), Gov. Andy Beshear (D) and former Gov. Chris Sununu (R) are skipping open races next year. Why it matters: The governor-to-Senate pipeline is reversing this cycle. Since 1986, 54 incumbent or former governors have run for Senate seats — compared to just 14 sitting or former senators who ran for governor, according to a recent analysis by Ballotpedia. The senators won gubernatorial elections 73% of the time, while governors won their Senate races just 48% of the time. Zoom in: At least three senators are now looking at ditching the Senate for the governor's mansion. In Colorado, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) has already announced a run for governor. In Tennessee and Alabama, Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R) and Tommy Tuberville (R) are seriously considering gubernatorial campaigns, as well. What to watch: Former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-N.C.) has yet to make a decision on whether he will try to oust Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) from his seat next year. Cooper would be the Democrats' best bet at flipping the seat. — Stef Kight

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Republican concedes long-unsettled North Carolina court election to Democratic incumbent

The Republican challenger for a North Carolina Supreme Court seat conceded last November’s election to the Democratic incumbent. Jefferson Griffin said in a statement that he would not appeal a federal judge’s decision favoring Associate Justice Allison Riggs. Read More.

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New poll of GOP gov race shows the power of Trump endorsement in Donalds-Casey DeSantis matchup

A public opinion survey shows U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds leading Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis, 44%-25, in the race for the Republican nomination for governor in 2026.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2025/05/09/new-poll-of-gop-gov-race-shows-the-power-of-trump-endorsement-in-donalds-casey-desantis-matchup/?

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Jason Pizzo says he’ll run for Florida governor as an independent

State Sen. Jason Pizzo, who’s talked about running for Florida governor for much of the past year, is ready to move beyond talk. He says he will run for the job next year.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2025/05/12/jason-pizzo-says-hell-run-for-florida-governor-as-an-independent/?

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Eye on 2028

The next presidential primaries are still nearly three years away, but the jockeying to replace Trump has already started in earnest — at least among Democrats. Republicans, on the other hand, are taking a wait-and-see approach.

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? Most expensive primary

Fault lines are forming fast in the Illinois Democratic Senate primary, which looks like it could be the party's most expensive 2026 contest.

• Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) told CNN today she won't jump in the race to succeed longtime Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin.

Why it matters: If Gov. JB Pritzker, a billionaire, activates his financial resources for Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, she could have a clear money advantage over Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly.

• But Krishnamoorthi has amassed a campaign war chest of over $19 million, a staggering number for a House member.
• Kelly's campaign has just over $2 million cash on hand, according to federal filings.

Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) has already endorsed Stratton to join her in the Senate.

— Stephen Neukam

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Trump ally Tuberville announces run for Alabama governor

Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville on Tuesday announced his 2026 run for Alabama governor.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-ally-tuberville-announces-run-alabama-governor?

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? Age war watch

1. Harry Jarin, 35, who is challenging Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.): "[N]obody could tell me that in their heart, they really thought Steny Hoyer at 89 years old [at the end of] the next Congress was the right person to represent us in this district," he told Politico.
2. Rep. Robert Garcia (Calif.), 47, formally launched his bid to replace late Rep. Gerry Connolly as the top Democrat on House Oversight. The likely field includes Reps. Stephen Lynch (Mass.), 70, and Kweisi Mfume (Md.), 77, as well as Garcia's fellow 40-something Rep. Jasmine Crockett (Texas).

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?️ Podcast primary

Pete Buttigieg at a town hall in the Veteran's Memorial Building in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on May 13. Photo: KC McGinnis for The Washington Post via Getty Images Democrats with presidential ambitions are following the lead of President Trump, who frequently went on podcasts appealing to younger men during his 2024 campaign. Why it matters: Liberal strategists acknowledge Trump showed that Democratic candidates need to master the podcast space, which is typically looser and more freewheeling than a press conference or a traditional media interview, AP's Meg Kinnard and Adriana Gomez Licon report. ? Zoom in: In February, California Gov. Gavin Newsom launched "This is Gavin Newsom." He's had a wide array of guests, including former Trump strategist Steve Bannon and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear launched "The Andy Beshear Podcast" earlier this year. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg did three hours on Andrew Schulz's "Flagrant" podcast, months after the comedian sat down with Trump. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer recently appeared on "Pod Save America."

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Young Dem Clinches Landslide Election Win in Lindsey Graham’s Backyard

Keishan Scott became the youngest member of the South Carolina House on Tuesday.

A 24-year-old Democrat pulled off a landslide win in Sen. Lindsey Graham’s backyard to secure a seat in the South Carolina House of Representatives.

Keishan Scott became the representative for rural District 50 after securing a nearly 41-point lead against his Republican opponent William Oden on Tuesday night, according to unofficial results from the South Carolina Election Commission.

“This victory is definitely not mine alone,” Scott said in a victory speech broadcast on his Facebook page. “It belongs to all of the people of District 50… I want to say thank you from the bottom of my heart for your vote of confidence.”

Join us at our Election Night Victory! Thank you, SC House District 50! ??

Posted by Keishan Scott on Tuesday, June 3, 2025

Scott ran on a campaign of improving access to health care, quality education, workforce empowerment, and expanding infrastructure. A native of Bishopville, Scott became the city’s youngest councilman at age 22.

The win makes Scott the youngest member of South Carolina’s House, which is still dominated by Republicans.

The Democratic National Committee said Scott’s victory extends the party’s “overperformance streak” this year.

“As long as Trump and MAGA Republicans peddle an out-of-touch agenda that puts billionaires’ interests first and takes away health care from millions of Americans, they will continue to sink and lose,” DNC chairperson Ken Martin said in a statement.

Todd Rutherford, South Carolina’s House Democratic leader, hailed Tuesday as “a great night for Democrats.”

“Keishan proved what is possible when we organize and run a sharp, focused campaign—and his win sets the tone for 2026,” he said.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly won the South Carolina district against Donald Trump in last year’s presidential election.

Scott’s win marks the latest victory for the Democratic Party, which in March flipped a Pennsylvania Senate district that Trump won by a wide margin.

In April, voters in the race for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court handed a humiliating loss to Trump and Elon Musk, who had invested millions into supporting the Republican candidate.

Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville said the recent triumphs were a cause for optimism amid terrible polling for Democrats.

“The political press is going to be reporting polling numbers, and I’m going to be looking at election results,” he told CNN last month.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/young-dem-keishan-scott-clinches-landslide-election-win-in-lindsey-grahams-backyard/?

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It’s official: David Jolly is a Democratic candidate for governor in ’26

Republicans have controlled the governor’s mansion for over a quarter of a century now

https://floridaphoenix.com/2025/06/05/its-official-david-jolly-is-a-democratic-candidate-for-governor-in-26/?

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New York City is using ranked choice voting in its Democratic mayoral primary. Here's how it works

New York City is using ranked choice voting in its Democratic mayoral primary election Tuesday. The system is based on a simple premise: Democracy works better if people aren’t forced to make an all-or-nothing choice with their vote. Read More.   NYC Mayoral Primary New York City voters head to the polls today for municipal primaries, including the mayoral race. Eleven candidates are running for the Democratic nomination—that winner is historically favored to win the general election.    The pack is led by former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who returned to politics following sexual harassment allegations and ran a centrist campaign focused on public safety. He is expected to pull over 35% of the vote. New York Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani has closed in on Cuomo's lead, with the 33-year-old democratic socialist calling for universal child care, free bus rides, and a rent freeze on rent-stabilized apartments (roughly 44% of NYC rentals). One recent poll found Mamdani likely to win the nomination through the city’s ranked-choice voting system (see how it works here).    The winner will face the Republican and independent candidates, including incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who skipped the Democratic primary and is running as an independent amid a since-dropped corruption investigation. Cuomo and Mamdani could also appear on the November ballot through additional party lines.

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Cuomo is trying a comeback in New York's mayoral primary, but Zohran Mamdani stands in his way

New York City Democrats will decide Tuesday whether to reboot Andrew Cuomo’s political career, elevate liberal upstart Zohran Mamdani, or turn to a crowded field of lesser-known but maybe less-polarizing candidates in the party’s mayoral primary. Read More.

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Democrats fret about national fallout after Mamdani stuns in New York City The stunning success of Zohran Mamdani in the primary race for New York City mayor has exposed anew the fiery divisions plaguing the Democratic Party as it struggles to repair its brand nearly half a year into Donald Trump’s presidency. Read more.

Why this matters: A fresh round of infighting erupted among Democratic officials, donors and political operatives on Wednesday. Many progressives cheered the emergence of the young and charismatic Mamdani, whose candidacy caught on with viral campaign videos and a focus on the cost of living. But the party’s more pragmatic wing cast the outcome as a serious setback in their quest to broaden Democrats’ appeal and move past the more controversial policies that alienated would-be voters in recent elections.   Indeed, Wednesday’s debate was about much more than who would lead America’s largest city for the next four years. Giddy Republicans viewed Mamdani’s success as a political gift that would help shape elections across New Jersey and Virginia this fall and into next year’s midterms. Trump took aim at Mamdani on social media, calling him “a 100% Communist Lunatic.”

RELATED COVERAGE ➤ See how every neighborhood in New York City voted in the Democratic mayoral primary   Who is Zohran Mamdani? State lawmaker seeks to become NYC’s first Muslim and Indian American mayor   Mamdani claimed victory over Cuomo. His next obstacle: Mayor Eric Adams, the Republicans and more ps:Not sure why they're having an uproar?? Look at the other candidates, Cuomo for one!!!!!

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Alexander Vindman, key witness in first Trump impeachment, may run for U.S. Senate in Florida

Alexander Vindman — the now-retired Army officer whose testimony provided critical evidence in the first impeachment of President Donald Trump — is now living a much quieter life in Broward County.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2025/06/27/alexander-vindman-key-witness-in-first-trump-impeachment-may-run-for-u-s-senate-in-florida/?

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Byron Donalds' $22 million haul

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) has raised $22 million for his gubernatorial bid since entering the race, a sum that dwarfs any of the two dozen rivals in the race, Axios' Marc Caputo writes.

• Why it matters: The fundraising helps cement Donalds' status as the odds-on favorite to win the GOP primary in which he has a priceless asset — President Trump's endorsement.

The intrigue: Donalds will stand side-by-side at a Florida press conference today with Trump and termed-out Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has wanted his wife, Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis, to run for his office.

• DeSantis became embittered with Donalds in 2023 when the congressman didn't endorse him in his failed bid for president and instead backed Trump in his successful reelection campaign.

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> Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani officially secures Democratic nomination for New York City’s mayoral race, with final tally showing he beat former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo by 12 points (More) | See previous write-up (More)

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Republicans eye '28

Photo illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios. Photos via Getty Images

Less than six months into President Trump's second term, several possible GOP contenders for president in 2028 already are racing to build their national profiles, travel to early primary states and establish relationships with major donors, Axios' Alex Isenstadt writes. Why it matters: Trump, who has dominated GOP politics for a decade, can't legally run again. Several ambitious Republicans are signaling they see an opening to offer themselves to primary voters as the future of the party. ?️ The big picture: Trump has mentioned Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as possible successors, and they're widely seen as the early favorites for the 2028 nomination. Vance has been using his perch as finance chair of the Republican National Committee to make inroads with donors, and has been crisscrossing the country raising money for the party. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who has been raising her profile with a series of photo ops with ICE agents during immigration raids, is also viewed as a possible 2028 contender. ? Zoom in: Though it's too early for anyone to say they're running, several GOP officeholders are positioning themselves to do just that. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin will visit Iowa later this month for an event with the state's GOP chair. Next month, Youngkin will headline a fundraising dinner for the GOP in South Carolina. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul is staking out turf as a deficit hawk and forcefully opposed Trump's big tax and spending bill. The senator, who waged an unsuccessful bid in 2016, recently went to Iowa and South Carolina and plans to go to New Hampshire this fall. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp addressed the Ronald Reagan Institute, a frequent stop for presidential hopefuls, in June. He has used his time as Republican Governors Association chair to introduce himself to major donors. Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who was White House press secretary during Trump's first term, is headed to Iowa this month to appear at an event hosted by the Family Leader, a group overseen by prominent evangelical activist Bob Vander Plaats. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who ran unsuccessfully in 2024, is using his National Republican Senatorial Committee chairmanship to travel and meet donors. ? Reality check: Testing the waters this early has risks. Trump will play a huge role in determining the party's next nominee, and could punish would-be candidates he sees as putting themselves ahead of him.

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? Scoop: New York showdown

Former Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney is considering challenging Rep. Mike Lawler in NY-17, we scooped today, setting up a heavyweight fight if Lawler skips the governor's race.

Why it matters: Some Republicans feel untouchable after the wins they've racked up this year. But their tiny House majority is a handful of close races from becoming the minority.

• Lawler is a key target of the DCCC as one of three Republicans to win a district that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris.
• It's a shot at redemption for Maloney, a former DCCC chair who lost to Lawler in 2022.
• Maloney had represented the neighboring district, NY-18, for 10 years but decided to challenge Lawler after his residence was drawn into NY-17, which scrambled internal Democratic politics.

Zoom in: Maloney hasn't made a final decision and likely won't until the fall, according to a person familiar with the matter.

• Lawler greeted our scoop by posting: "I'm sure Democrats are excited about the prospects of Sean Patrick Maloney making a come back — because it worked out so well the last time."

Screenshot: X

— Hans Nichols

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?? Double scoops: Monster fundraising hauls

We've got two big campaign finance numbers ahead of the July 15 filing deadline: A super PAC for Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) raised $5.6 million in the first half of the year, letting the five-term senator know she'll have ample air support for her expected reelection bid in 2026. Freshman Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Va.) will report raising $1.5 million in the second quarter, the biggest haul for an incumbent frontline Democrat. Zoom in: Collins is a top target for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. She's the only GOP senator to represent a state won by former Vice President Harris. Vindman, whose twin brother, Alexander, was a star impeachment witness against Trump, is again showing real skill in converting #resistance energy into hard dollars. He raised nearly $18 million in the 2024 cycle, finishing behind only House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. He won the district by some three percentage points, slightly smaller than Harris' margin. Zoom out: Republican incumbents are also putting up big fundraising numbers. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), who won the closest race last cycle, raised $1.2 million in the second quarter and will show $2 million cash on hand. Challenger Christina Bohannan said she raised $800k in two weeks. Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) raised $1.2 million last quarter, with $1.7 million cash on hand. Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa) brought in $780,000 and has $1.2 million cash on hand. Read more here ... and here — Hans Nichols