2025/26/27/28 Elections

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Prairie State Primaries

Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) defeated Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D, IL-8) and Rep. Robin Kelly (D, IL-2) in yesterday’s competitive Democratic primary to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, who has held the seat since 1997 and is the No. 2 Senate Democrat. Stratton, Illinois’ first Black lieutenant governor and a key ally of Gov. JB Pritzker (D), will face former state Republican Party chair Don Tracy in November. Stratton ran as a progressive, backing Medicare for All, a $25 minimum wage, and expanding abortion rights, while also calling to abolish ICE. She also supports the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and tighter gun laws, framing the race as a fight against “Trump-style” politics. The contest likely determines who will hold the seat, since Illinois is a solidly Democratic state in federal races and has not elected a Republican statewide since 2014.

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Democrat flips seat in special election for Florida district that includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort Democrat Emily Gregory won a Florida special election on Tuesday, flipping a state legislative district that is home to Mar-a-Lago, the Palm Beach estate that President Donald Trump counts as his residence. Read more.

Why this matters: Democrats celebrated the victory as the latest sign voters are turning against Trump and Republicans ahead of the midterm elections in November. Tuesday was the latest in a series of lopsided or improbable victories in special elections across the country since Trump returned to the White House more than a year ago. The president had endorsed Gregory’s rival, Jon Maples. In a social media post Monday, he urged voters to turn out, saying Maples was backed “by so many of my Palm Beach County friends.” The district was previously represented by Mike Caruso, a Republican who resigned to become Palm Beach County’s clerk. Caruso won by 19 percentage points in 2024.

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🐘 MAGA stress tests

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images

Three Republican primaries in May will test whether President Trump still holds an iron grip over the GOP — or whether cracks are emerging, Axios' Alex Isenstadt writes. Why it matters: Trump's approval rating has never been lower. The Iran war and the Epstein files have drawn backlash even within MAGA, straining one of the most loyal coalitions in American politics. 🔬 Zoom in: The White House is deeply involved in Trump's retribution campaigns across three state primaries next month. Indiana (May 5): Three pro-Trump groups are pouring more than $4 million into races to oust five GOP state legislators who defied Trump's redistricting demands. Louisiana (May 16): Trump has endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow's bid to unseat Sen. Bill Cassidy, targeting one of the few Republicans who voted to convict him after Jan. 6. Kentucky (May 19): Trump's political operation is deploying millions to take down Rep. Thomas Massie, a GOP renegade who led the push to release the Epstein files.

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A 14-year-old running for governor is the first teen to get on Vermont’s general election ballot

STOWE, Vt. (AP) — Looking back, gubernatorial candidate Dean Roy says his political ambitions started in the eighth grade. And by that he means, last year.

https://apnews.com/article/vermont-teen-runs-governor-first-46d712d6c640b4d938a63ebafbcc06e8?

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Greater representation

Only five Black women have ever served in the US Senate. Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has the potential to make history and become the sixth if elected in November.

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💰 Left-wingers press '28 Dems on wealth tax

Illustration: Lindsey Bailey / Axios

💵 Left-wing activists are calling on prospective 2028 presidential contenders to embrace a wealth tax — a move that many mainstream Democrats say is ill-advised. Why it matters: On one side, potential White House hopefuls such as Ocasio-Cortez, Khanna and Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen have endorsed wealth taxes. On the other, moderates argue that such taxes are anti-business, legally unfeasible and too often pitched as addressing wealth inequality rather than using the revenue to expand benefits. 🎯 Newsom is in the crosshairs of this fight. He's opposed to a wealth tax in California but has left the door open to a national wealth tax. Left-wing activists have been pressuring him to embrace a proposal for a one-time 5% tax on Californians worth more than $1 billion. Newsom has vowed to stop the proposal because he fears it would drive away the wealthy and hurt the state's economy. Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy, a possible 2028 rival, traveled to Los Angeles yesterday to show support for a wealth tax in Newsom's state. Tax the Greedy Billionaires, a campaign backed by MoveOn and other liberal activists, told Axios it circulated polling at a meeting last week with several congressional offices indicating that most Democratic voters would view Newsom less favorably if they thought he opposed higher taxes on the rich. The group also is making a small digital ad buy attacking Newsom and planning talks with other 2028 contenders to push wealth taxes and similar policies. Newsom has long disputed the idea that he doesn't support making the wealthy pay more, pointing to California's progressive tax system. Igor Volsky, campaign director of Tax the Greedy Billionaires, said that potential 2028 candidates should understand that "extreme wealth is a crisis." Tré Easton of the center-left think tank Searchlight Institute said a national wealth tax "would have some problems passing constitutional muster." Read more. — Holly Otterbein

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Democrats Panic as Power Player Sets Off 2028 Chaos

Democrats are keeping a close eye on how a political heavyweight who branded his own party “weak and woke” will shape the race.

Democrats are holding their breath as a power player in the party moves to shake up the 2028 race.

Former Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel, who served as President Barack Obama’s first chief of staff, has been running the playbook of a presidential hopeful without officially running—making media rounds, touring key swing states, and unveiling policy proposals.

In a crowded field of potential candidates, Emanuel, 66, has emerged as a provocateur, seeking to pull the Democratic Party rightward while casting it as “weak and woke” and obsessed with “debates over pronouns, bathroom access and renaming schools.”

Democratic rivals are watching closely, bracing for the impact he could have on the 2028 contest.

“Electorally I don’t think he’ll be a threat, but he has an ability to shape the race in other ways,” one Democratic adviser to another potential 2028 contender told Politico.

“He’s good at getting reporters to cover him and he is shameless in a good way: He’s not afraid of putting himself out there.”

Another Democratic strategist who is likely to be involved in advising a left-leaning candidate told Politico that Emanuel—whose podcast visibility efforts have taken him to The Megyn Kelly Show—will “spice up the race.”

“He’s both provocative, but trying to lay down a marker that he thinks is popular with a broader electorate,” the strategist said.

James Carville, the strategist behind Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential run, similarly said last month that Emanuel—a former Clinton White House official—would “have an effect on the dialogue” in the race.

Others in the party are unimpressed with the idea of Emanuel running.

When Politico asked Democratic strategist Rebecca Katz, who worked on Zohran Mamdani’s successful mayoral bid, what she thought about an Emanuel campaign, she answered bluntly: “I don’t.”

Even without Emanuel in the mix, potential Democratic presidential contenders already appear to be steering the party toward the center on social issues.

California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has led the pack in many polls, said last year that transgender athletes competing in female sports was “deeply unfair,” for instance.

In a December Yale Youth Poll of 3,426 registered voters, Newsom topped the list with 25 percent support, followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris at 18 percent, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 16 percent, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 14 percent. Emanuel fell into the crowded category of candidates who received less than 5 percent support.

But Emanuel believes he’s the candidate for “change”—and “strength.”

“People that want to see change,” he told Politico. “Change and strength. There’s nobody who walks away and says, ‘You know, Rahm’s kind of weak and woke.’ So we’ll see if there’s an appetite.”

Emanuel, who served as U.S. ambassador to Japan under the Biden administration, told Michigan union leaders last month that he’s “road-testing” a presidential run. Those who know him say he’s serious about running, according to Politico.

“He is out there throwing ideas out and traveling and being provocative and stirring the pot and moving the debate, and I don’t think it’s a prelude to a podcast,” said David Axelrod, the former senior Obama adviser and Emanuel’s longtime friend.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/democrats-panic-as-power-player-rahm-emanuel-sets-off-2028-chaos/?

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🎓 Rahm's '28 pitch: Raid ICE to fund college

Photo illustration: Maura Kearns/Axios. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Rahm Emanuel wants to shift billions of dollars from building new ICE facilities to funding community colleges — arguing they'll become more critical as AI disrupts the job market. Why it matters: It's Emanuel's latest attempt to get ahead of other potential 2028 candidates with early policy proposals, especially on AI, tech and education. Emanuel — former mayor of Chicago, White House chief of staff, House Democratic Caucus chair and U.S. ambassador to Japan — is proposing to take 20% of the $38.3 billion the Trump administration plans to spend on ICE detention centers and divert it to community colleges. "The priority for Americans should be education, not detention," Emanuel wrote. Emanuel, 66, will highlight the plan later this week on ABC's "The View" and with four college stops in South Carolina — historically a key state in the Democratic presidential primary. 🔬 Between the lines: Ahead of an expected 2028 White House run, Emanuel — who is out of office — has been rolling out a brisk cadence of policy proposals to try to frame the debate early. Emanuel has proposed banning social media for anyone under 16, blocking all federal employees and their family members from betting on prediction markets, and mandating that all federal officeholders across all three branches of government retire at age 75. Read Rahm's proposal ... Share this story. 🎒 First look: The Aspen Institute is convening a bipartisan group to study and shape the future of American education amid AI's workforce disruption, Axios' Colin Demarest reports. The Rising Generations Strategy Group will be led by former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo (D) and former Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.). Keep reading.

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🚫 2028 Dems run from 2020

Illustration: Aïda Amer / Axios. Stock: Getty Images

👀 Democrats weighing runs for the White House want to forget many of the positions they took in 2020 — and they're hoping voters will too. Why it matters: Leaders and would-be leaders in the party have shifted their views on border security, DEI, crime, climate change, COVID-era lockdowns and more — all with an eye on this year's midterms and the 2028 presidential election. Many Democrats believe they lost to Donald Trump in 2024 because voters didn't like some of their left-leaning policies, not just how they were communicated. 🚘 Driving the news: Several potential 2028 Democratic candidates have spent the past year trying to distance themselves from the Democratic Party of recent years — and some of their own positions. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has been telling audiences and reporters that Democrats need to be more "culturally normal." Last year Newsom said that "not one person ever in my office has ever used the word Latinx" — but he used the term repeatedly in 2020. 😷 Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro wrote in his recent book that Democrats "got the masking and vaccine mandates wrong" during the pandemic and that he'd have "handled the state's response differently" as governor. Shapiro, however, was the state attorney general at the time and didn't express such feelings until he ran for governor in 2022. As AG he defended many of the policies in court, saying it was his "legal duty." Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said last year that when Democrats talk about diversity it can seem like they're "making people sit through a training that looks like something out of 'Portlandia.'" And in his new book, "Stand," New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker wrote: "We cannot cancel everyone who fails a purity test." Zoom in: Nearly all potential 2028 presidential candidates criticize Joe Biden's handling of immigration, and talk about securing the southern border. Top Democrats are blasting the Trump administration's dismantling of diversity, equity and inclusion programs across the private and public sectors — but few are calling for such programs to be restored and expanded. 👮‍♂️ Many senior Democrats also are running away from calls to "defund" the police, and touting expansions of law enforcement. The shift among Democrats is also evident in gubernatorial, congressional and local races. When Democrats talk about energy now, it's usually about utility rates rather than multitrillion-dollar investments in alternative energy. In New York City's mayoral election last year, Zohran Mamdani spent months walking back his past calls to defund a police department he'd called "racist, anti-queer & a major threat to public safety." When Republicans attacked James Talarico, Texas' Democratic nominee for Senate, for saying things like "God is non-binary," he told the New York Times he stood by his values but that "I probably would have said them differently." Reality check: While moving to the center on such issues, the Democratic Party has moved to the left on others. Democrats have become increasingly hostile to tech companies and AI amid fears of job losses and anxiety that data centers will further drive up utility costs. Opposition to Israel's actions has spread throughout the party. Progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) remains one of the party's most popular figures and draws enormous crowds. And although Newsom has pushed Democrats to change their rhetoric, he's also argued that "all this anti-woke stuff is just anti-Black. Period. Full stop." Some mainstream commentators applaud the shifts to the middle as politically savvy. Others say Democrats are abandoning vulnerable communities and the party's principles. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, another possible 2028 contender, summed up this argument: "Those same do-nothing Democrats want to blame our losses on our defense of Black people, of trans kids, of immigrants, instead of their own lack of guts and gumption." Read more. — Alex Thompson, Holly Otterbein

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🥊 Democrats' new fight over tax cuts

Illustration: Sarah Grillo / Axios

✂️ Some Democrats eyeing runs for the White House have rolled out a provocative new economic policy: massive tax cuts for the working and middle classes, and big hikes for the wealthy. Why it matters: Republicans may lose the midterm elections because of voters' anger over high prices, but Democrats are still struggling to figure out how to address voters' concerns about inflation. ✏️ The proposals by Democratic presidential hopefuls include eliminating federal income taxes for half of all U.S. workers, making the first $75,000 of income earned by married couples tax-free, and enacting a variety of state-based tax cuts and credits. Critics argue that some of the plans would squander funds that should be spent on social services, undermine the argument for government programs and amount to political pandering, or what they call "slopulism." The tax-cut proposals — Democratic versions of a strategy long associated with the GOP — are triggering what some are describing as the biggest policy battle on the left in years. 😡 "There isn't a wonk in town who doesn't hate this," one D.C.-based Democratic operative told us. "Holy cow … did we set off a sh*tstorm," acknowledged Erica Payne, president of Patriotic Millionaires, a liberal group that supports one of the main proposals. Zoom in: Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen kicked off the debate in March by calling to get rid of federal income taxes for every married couple earning less than $92,000 annually — and any individual making less than $46,000 — while hiking taxes on millionaires. The bill also would lower, but not eliminate, income taxes for millions more middle-class Americans. "If you are working paycheck to paycheck and making just enough to cover your basic cost-of-living expenses, then you shouldn't have that taxed away at the federal level," Van Hollen told us. Other possible presidential candidates, including Arizona Sens. Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego, signed onto Van Hollen's plan. Booker, who's also considering a White House run, followed with a bill to make the first $75,000 of income earned by married couples tax-free. He too would raise taxes on the wealthy. Supporters argue that lowering ordinary Americans' taxes is sometimes a more efficient way to help them than boosting government programs, and that expanded social services could be funded by other taxes on the rich. 🤺 Payne, whose organization helped Van Hollen craft his plan, shot back at detractors: "These so-called intellectuals on the left haven't met a working or a poor person since they entered politics." The rush to back broad-based tax cuts is a shift from the last competitive Democratic primary in 2020, when several candidates backed left-wing economic ideas such as Medicare for All. Democrats said the trend could be a preview of a more populist — and ideologically jumbled — primary in 2028. That's triggering anxiety among some corners of the party, though not along typical moderate vs. progressive lines. Instead, it's more like a feud between policy wonks and politicians. Read more. — Holly Otterbein, Alex Thompson

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Georgia special election

A Democrat's long-shot bid to flip former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's deep-red Georgia district heads to a runoff today, drawing national attention as Republicans try to protect their razor-thin House majority. The race to replace Greene, the former ally of President Trump turned critic who resigned from Congress in January, advanced to a runoff when neither Democrat Shawn Harris nor Republican Clay Fuller secured a majority in March's crowded election. A potential win by Harris, although a tall task, would further tighten Speaker Mike Johnson's margin — especially with an expected Democratic pickup in an upcoming New Jersey special election, leaving him little room to lose votes.

Democrat Shawn Harris, left, and Republican Clay Fuller. (Getty Images)

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🗳️ Dems drop Swalwell after sexual-assault reports

Top Democrats are calling for Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) to leave the California governor's race after the San Francisco Chronicle reported yesterday that a former staffer accused him of sexually assaulting her on multiple occasions, including a first instance in 2019.

• Shortly after the Chronicle bombshell, CNN published a detailed report with four women accusing Swalwell of various acts of sexual misconduct, including sending unsolicited nude photos.
• CNN's report includes an on-camera interview with an unnamed former staffer (shown in shadow) who accused him of rape. He denied the allegations in a video last night, but apologized to his wife for unspecified mistakes.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) both called for Swalwell, who represents the East Bay, to end his campaign.

• The Chronicle and CNN both reported that Swalwell's attorney sent cease-and-desist letters to at least two of the accusers. CNN said the letters were sent Thursday, a day after the network reached out to his campaign.

In last night's video, Swalwell, 45, said he'd "fight [the allegations] with everything that I have. ... These allegations are false and come on the eve of an election against the frontrunner for governor."

• Rumors of sexual harassment and abuse by Swalwell had circulated on social media for weeks before the Chronicle's report.

Democrats and labor unions quickly distanced themselves from Swalwell, who is among the frontrunners in the race to succeed Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. The primary is on June 2.

• California Democratic Sens. Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla dropped their endorsements, as did Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), a close friend of Swalwell's.
• Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.), who chaired Swalwell's gubernatorial campaign, resigned.

Go deeper.

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🔎 Swalwell suspends campaign

Via X

Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) announced last night that he's suspending his campaign for governor amid allegations of rape, sexual assault and sexual misconduct that he denies. Why it matters: Swalwell was one of the Democratic frontrunners in the race. His exit is a colossal shakeup of what has already been one of the most volatile gubernatorial races in recent memory, Axios' Andrew Solender writes. He offered no indication that he plans to give up his House seat after calls from colleagues in both parties for him to resign. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) has said she plans to force a vote to expel Swalwell when the House returns to session this week. That would require a two-thirds majority. Keep reading. ps:This is exactly what they wanted!! Now if these charges are true than unlike many maga republicans, he will be doing the right thing!!

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💰 Billion-dollar state

Data: KPI 2026 Political Media Forecast; Chart: Justin Green/Axios Michigan will be ground zero for political ad spending this cycle, with a complicated Democratic Senate primary, a three-way governor's race and a trio of competitive House contests behind a projected $1 billion price tag. $10.4 billion is expected to be spent nationwide on political advertising in the 2026 election, according to a new analysis from Kinetiq Political Insights (KPI). Why it matters: Crowded media markets in Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina will drive up costs for super PACs aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer — and for House leadership groups as well. Zoom out: KPI's $10.4 billion estimate is broadly in line with a September projection from AdImpact, another firm that tracks political ad spending across TV and radio. KPI says total spending could range from $9 billion to $11.8 billion, depending on factors like redistricting. "With Virginia's redistricting measure looming and the House map shrinking by the week, record midterm spending is about to pour into the smallest battlefield in recent memory — and that makes anything possible," said Adam Wise, a strategic consultant for KPI. Zoom in: Atlanta is expected to be the most expensive media market of the cycle, with about $591 million divided among the Senate race, an open governor's contest and at least two competitive House races. Total Georgia ad spending could approach $900 million. Between the lines: Connected TV (streaming) is expected to capture more than 25% of total spending, or about $2.7 billion — a 122% increase from 2022. Broadcast TV is projected to account for 46.2% ($4.8 billion). Cable TV could fall to 11.3% ($1.2 billion). Flashback: The 2022 midterms saw $8.9 billion in political ad spending, according to KPI. Ohio had the most expensive Senate race in 2024, with about $450 million in spending, according to OpenSecrets. The bottom line: Some Democratic challengers are outraising their GOP counterparts in House and Senate races, but Republican-aligned super PACs and party committees are hoping to close the money gap. The GOP's Senate Leadership Fund and affiliated groups reported $166.4 million cash on hand at the start of April. Senate Majority PAC and Majority Forward, aligned with Schumer, reported $74.8 million cash on hand. — Hans Nichols

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It’s official: Alex Vindman is running for the U.S. Senate seat

Calling incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody an “automatic yes vote” for “corruption” and “chaos,” former U.S. Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman made his bid for the U.S. Senate official Wednesday.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2026/04/22/its-official-alex-vindman-is-running-for-the-u-s-senate-seat/?